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At least 775 records · Page 43

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NASA NTRS2008

Photorefraction Screens Millions for Vision Disorders

Who would have thought that stargazing in the 1980s would lead to hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren seeing more clearly today? Collaborating with research ophthalmologists and optometrists, Marshall Space Flight Center scientists Joe Kerr and the late John Richardson adapted optics technology for eye screening methods using a process called photorefraction. Photorefraction consists of delivering a light beam into the eyes where it bends in the ocular media, hits the retina, and then reflects as an image back to a camera. A series of refinements and formal clinical studies followed their highly successful initial tests in the 1980s. Evaluating over 5,000 subjects in field tests, Kerr and Richardson used a camera system prototype with a specifically angled telephoto lens and flash to photograph a subject s eye. They then analyzed the image, the cornea and pupil in particular, for irregular reflective patterns. Early tests of the system with 1,657 Alabama children revealed that, while only 111 failed the traditional chart test, Kerr and Richardson s screening system found 507 abnormalities.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2007

Recommendations for Refinement and Validation of Intermittent Artificial Gravity

The IMAG Pilot Study, recently completed at the University of Texas Medical Branch, filled in the second major gap in knowledge standing in the way of development of a practical Short Radius Centrifuge (SRC) and the use of Artificial Gravity (AG) as a multi-system countermeasure to combat the deconditioning associated with extended weightlessness. (The first challenge, to adapt rapidly rotating subjects to permit unlimited head movements without excessive motion sickness, was achieved in a series of studies at MIT involving incremental increases in head and centrifuge velocity.) It remained to be demonstrated that intermittent exposure to AG, at only one hour per day for 21 days, would have any positive effect on slowing or eliminating of deconditioning. Bed-rested normal subjects were used as a ground analog for astronauts in weightlessness. The results are clearly positive for the key physiological systems of interest: cardiovascular, muscle, and bone. No functionally relevant changes were observed in immune, cognitive, or sensory-motor function. Furthermore, we found that our initial concerns about the inability of deconditioned subjects to withstand daily centrifugation without syncope were misplaced. These encouraging initial results clearly support the further development of AG protocols. We recommend, as the next steps, the integration of a controlled exercise device on the SRC to determine the synergy between AG and exercise. Coupled with appropriate exercise device(s) the AG protocol will be tuned to-ward an optimal prescription for minimum exposure duration and frequency, maximum AG level and SRC speed.. Performance of these next steps will require extensive use of bed-rest/centrifuge facilities and eventually validation using an SRC in space. A space SRC could be placed in the ISS or on a planetary surface.

Young, Lauren R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Complex Disorder in Type-I Clathrates: Synthesis and Structural Characterization of A8GaxSn46−x (A = Rb, Cs; 6.9 < x < 7.5)

Exploratory studies in the systems Rb–Ga–Sn and Cs–Ga–Sn yielded the cubic type-I clathrates with refined compositions Rb8GaxSn46−x and Cs8GaxSn46−x (6.9 < x < 7.5). Nearly single-phase materials with good crystallinity were obtained from stoichiometric reactions of the elements. The structures were characterized by means of single-crystal X-ray diffraction methods. Both Rb8GaxSn46−x and Cs8GaxSn46−x represents cases, where a Group 13 element randomly substitutes a Group 14 element in the structure. The extent of Ga/Sn mixing is apparently governed by the drive of the system to achieve an optimal valence electron count, and hence, Rb8GaxSn46−x and Cs8GaxSn46−x (x ≈ 8) can be regarded as Zintl phases. This notion is supported by structure refinements on a multitude of single-crystal X-ray diffraction data, which also confirm that both types of cages in the cubic type-I structure are fully occupied by Rb and Cs atoms. The open-framework, comprised of 46 nodes per formula unit, adapts to the incorporation of nearly eight Ga atoms within the matrix of Sn, whereby small, short-range distortions result. The exact nature of these effects is still unclear, as so far, the structural variations could only be modeled as both positional and occupational disorder at one of three framework sites. Since vacancies in the structures of the binary type-I clathrates A8Sn46−x☐x (A = Rb, Cs; ☐ = missing Sn atom) are also known to cause local distortions, the latter were also synthesized with the same protocols used for the synthesis of A8GaxSn46−x and structurally re-analyzed. The results from the latter studies confirm that homogeneity issues abound, and that the final structures/compositions are an intricate function of the experimental conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2011

Low Boom Configuration Analysis with FUN3D Adjoint Simulation Framework

Off-body pressure, forces, and moments for the Gulfstream Low Boom Model are computed with a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes solver coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. This is the first application of viscous output-based adaptation to reduce estimated discretization errors in off-body pressure for a wing body configuration. The output adaptation approach is compared to an a priori grid adaptation technique designed to resolve the signature on the centerline by stretching and aligning the grid to the freestream Mach angle. The output-based approach produced good predictions of centerline and off-centerline measurements. Eddy viscosity predicted by the SA turbulence model increased significantly with grid adaptation. Computed lift as a function of drag compares well with wind tunnel measurements for positive lift, but predicted lift, drag, and pitching moment as a function of angle of attack has significant differences from the measured data. The sensitivity of longitudinal forces and moment to grid refinement is much smaller than the differences between the computed and measured data.

Park, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Artificial Intelligence Medical Support for Long-Duration Space Missions

We envision an artificial intelligence (AI) based system that will provide support and recommendations to the crew medical officer (CMO) and ground flight surgeon during long-duration space missions. Such a system would be pretrained on the knowledgebase of clinical knowledge on Earth, minimizing the amount of Earth data that needs to be transferred into space. Then during deployment, the system would be constantly refined through active learning from diverse streams of data from sensors in the spacecraft, data collected daily from individual astronauts, and human-in-the-loop feedback from the crew. The model could be interrogated for predictions and recommendations on personalized crew health based on the overall status of the spacecraft, medicinal stores, and status of other crew members. Adaptation techniques would be used to incorporate spaceflight data that have very different distributions from the training data due to the extreme environment. Edge computing and the most advanced neuromorphic processing would enable computation in scenarios with low power and bandwidth, while dimensionality reduction would be employed to ensure that the input data streams from spaceflight are as small as possible. In order to realize this long-term vision, several hardware and software aspects need to be developed and assembled. First, models pretrained on Earth biomedical data would need to be evaluated for predictive accuracy, and the best one selected. That model would need to be adapted to learn from diverse, sparse, and inconsistently measured data streams, as well as human-in-the-loop feedback. A data integration, standardization, and dimensionality reduction methodology would need to be developed to handle all data types and feed them into the model. Once the software and data infrastructure is developed, it would need to be integrated with small footprint compute processors and tested in high-radiation, high-vibration, unregulated temperature situations. As a short-term goal, we recommend to focus on the development of the data and model software structure. Several large language models (LLM) already exist that have been trained on Earth biomedical and clinical knowledgebases, including BioMedLLM, Med-PaLM, SPOKE LLM, and Foresight. These models need to be evaluated for accuracy and the best one chosen for a proof-of-concept structure, while maintaining awareness of the accelerating AI field and incorporating any newly improved model architectures as needed. Then, we recommend to develop a database of synthetic data types to mimic the diverse data streams that are expected in a long-duration space mission. This should include environmental and microbial data from the spacecraft, non-invasive data from wearables and point-of-care devices employed by astronauts, and more invasive molecular and physiological monitoring of clinical and biomarker data from astronauts. The data standardization methodology should be developed, and these data streams used to refine the clinical LLM. Several scenarios should be developed that could plausibly come up in a long-duration space mission, and changes or aberrations introduced to the data at specific times to mimic these scenarios. Then, question and answer tasks should be designed to interrogate the model for predictions and recommendations, with acceptable answers already identified.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive lighting for streets and residential areas

Adaptive lighting is an approach to lighting application in which the lighting levels are controlled based on the needs of the users of the lighted environment. Such systems are enabled by the instant-on and dimming capabilities of solid-state lighting and have been shown to have the potential to reduce energy consumption by over 50%, both through the use of maintained lighting levels without over-lighting and dimming. This investigation considered the impact of adaptive lighting within Cambridge NA. The impact of adaptive lighting on crashes and crime was considered using both the timing of the installation of the LED system in a before-and-after comparison, as well as a comparison to a neighboring non-dimming city. Industry practitioners and the public were also surveyed. As a follow-on to the first analysis, a human factors experiment was performed to investigate if the lighting levels could be further refined to improve energy performance. Overall, the energy savings from the dimming system range from 55% initially to 36% at the end of the life of the luminaire system

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling & Optimization of the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) Wave Energy Converter (WEC) (CRADA Final Report)

This project represents a continuation of the collaboration between iProTech and NLR to simulate, optimize and design the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) device. The objectives of this TEAMER project are twofold: 1. Refining the physical characteristics of the existing iProTech PIP WEC-Sim model to enhance the model’s fidelity and include controllable components. Key model enhancements target the inclusion of Coulomb friction, the introduction of a controllable bypass valve, and the replacement of traditional check valves with advanced motorized ones. 2. Exploring traditional and advanced control algorithms. From traditional methods like latching control to cutting-edge reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, the goal is to ensure the PIP device's adaptability and optimal performance across a range of ocean conditions. NLR is tasked with augmenting the WEC-Sim model and implementing the control algorithms, culminating in performance comparison analyses. iProTech will update their existing 3D models, advise on model improvements, and determine crucial system metrics. WEC-Sim, developed in MATLAB/SIMULINK with Simscape Multibody, is the main piece of software that will be used in this project. Coupled with the MATLAB RL Toolbox, it offers a robust platform for in-depth simulation and optimization of the iProTech PIP device. Building on previous work to explore the PIP design space and optimize its geometry, mass distribution, center of gravity and other key parameters, this project aims to refine iProTech’s existing numerical models and develop effective control algorithms that can seamlessly integrate into their future hardware testing campaigns.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing weak lensing redshift distribution characterization by optimizing the Dark Energy Survey Self-Organizing Map Photo-z method

Characterization of the redshift distribution of ensembles of galaxies is pivotal for large scale structure cosmological studies. In this work, we focus on improving the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) methodology for photometric redshift estimation (SOMPZ), specifically in anticipation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) data. This data set, featuring deeper and fainter galaxies than DES Year 3 (DES Y3), demands adapted techniques to ensure accurate recovery of the underlying redshift distribution. We investigate three strategies for enhancing the existing SOM-based approach used in DES Y3: 1) Replacing the Y3 SOM algorithm with one tailored for redshift estimation challenges; 2) Incorporating $\textit{g}$-band flux information to refine redshift estimates (i.e. using $\textit{griz}$ fluxes as opposed to only $\textit{riz}$); 3) Augmenting redshift data for galaxies where available. These methods are applied to DES Y3 data, and results are compared to the Y3 fiducial ones. Our analysis indicates significant improvements with the first two strategies, notably reducing the overlap between redshift bins. By combining strategies 1 and 2, we have successfully managed to reduce redshift bin overlap in DES Y3 by up to 66$\%$. Conversely, the third strategy, involving the addition of redshift data for selected galaxies as an additional feature in the method, yields inferior results and is abandoned. Our findings contribute to the advancement of weak lensing redshift characterization and lay the groundwork for better redshift characterization in DES Year 6 and future stage IV surveys, like the Rubin Observatory.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards an Aviation Large Language Model by Fine-tuning and Evaluating Transformers

In the aviation domain, there are many applications for machine learning and artificial intelligence tools that utilize natural language. For example, there is a desire to know the commonalities in written safety reports such as voluntary post incidents reports or aerial wildfire operations reports to better understand the risks present. Another use-case is the possibility of extracting airspace procedures and constraints currently written in documents such as Letters of Agreement. These applications can benefit from the use of state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques when adapted to the language/phraseology specific to the aviation domain. This paper evaluates the viability of adaptation of NLP tools to the aviation domain by fine-tuning transformer based models using aviation data sets. In 2018, a novel language model based on neural units (also called transformers) was created and became known as “Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers” or BERT. This architecture combined with large amounts of English training data and innovative semi-supervised training tasks set the standard for what would later emerge as Large Language Models. The performance of these models was further improved by hyperparameter tuning and refinement of the semi-supervised training task and resulted in “Robustly Optimized BERT Pre-training Approach through hyperparameter tuning” or RoBERTa models. These pre-trained Large Language Models proved to be useful for a wide variety of natural language processing tasks such as text classification and question answering through a process called fine-tuning. The transformer architecture with pre-trained weights served as the basis with the last few layers replaced with layers fine-tuned to perform a new task e.g., a layer that provides a label for the entire input text. This process of fine-tuning can also be used to adapt the models to new domains; e.g., BioBERT started with the pre-trained BERT model and was completed by additional fine-tuning and training on biomedical documents. Transformer-based architectures can also be used to create rich representations of text called embeddings which can serve as the input to other machine learning models. This allows simpler algorithms such as logistic regression to use context-rich representations of the text while still remaining quick to train and evaluate. In the world of aviation, there is a growing demand for natural language processing and understanding but the domain presents unique challenges. Due to the technical content (and specialized language) of most aviation documents, fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models to specific tasks has not met the benchmark on natural language processing tasks set by simpler models trained from scratch on the data. To address this deficiency, this paper evaluates the improvements from fine-tuning a Large Language Model on a large set of aviation documents using the original semi-supervised training tasks before performing specific natural language tasks. In fine-tuning, a domain-specific dataset is used on the original training task but with the pre-trained Large Language Model instead of starting from a random initialization. This approach allows the model to be adapted to the specific domain language without discarding the information gained from training on general English data. This paper utilized two major dataset types to train and assess the RoBERTa fine-tuning performance. The first are 7,057 Letters of Agreement which are Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) documents that formalize airspace operations across the national airspace system. They contain many examples of ‘aviation English’ using domain specific terminology and phrasing which serves as a representative basis to perform the semi-supervised fine-tuning. The second type is the 494 document classification labels to be used for evaluation. This down-stream evaluation aims to show the performance of the fine-tuned model, better understand how much data is needed for an effective fine-tuning, and how fine-tuning can be adapted for different applications in-the domain. After semi-supervised training, evaluation begins by encoding the documents for classification using the fine-tuned RoBERTa model. Then a logistic regression classifier is trained to label the document type and compared against our ground truth labels. This currently leads to a 82.8% accuracy on 10-fold cross validation showing improvement over baseline RoBERTa which achieved 81.0%. We plan to measure the improvements on additional tasks and it is expected that these improvements will lead to more robust models that can tackle the natural language processing challenges present in aviation datasets.

ATM↗

DOE OSTI2025

A staged deep learning approach to spatial refinement in 3D temporal atmospheric transport

High-resolution spatiotemporal simulations effectively capture the complexities of atmospheric plume dispersion in complex terrain. However, their high computational cost makes them impractical for applications requiring rapid responses or iterative processes, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, or inverse modeling. To address this challenge, this work introduces the Dual-Stage Temporal Three-dimensional UNet Super-resolution (DST3D-UNet-SR) model, a highly efficient deep learning model for plume dispersion predictions. DST3D-UNet-SR is composed of two sequential modules: the temporal module (TM), which predicts the transient evolution of a plume in complex terrain from low-resolution temporal data, and the spatial refinement module (SRM), which subsequently enhances the spatial resolution of the TM predictions. We train DST3D-UNet-SR using a comprehensive dataset derived from high-resolution large eddy simulations (LES) of plume transport. We propose the DST3D-UNet-SR model to significantly accelerate LES of three-dimensional (3D) plume dispersion by three orders of magnitude. Additionally, the model demonstrates the ability to dynamically adapt to evolving conditions through the incorporation of new observational data, substantially improving prediction accuracy in high-concentration regions near the source.

3D temporal sequences↗

NASA NTRS2004

Subsurface Stress Fields in FCC Single Crystal Anisotropic Contacts

Single crystal superalloy turbine blades used in high pressure turbomachinery are subject to conditions of high temperature, triaxial steady and alternating stresses, fretting stresses in the blade attachment and damper contact locations, and exposure to high-pressure hydrogen. The blades are also subjected to extreme variations in temperature during start-up and shutdown transients. The most prevalent high cycle fatigue (HCF) failure modes observed in these blades during operation include crystallographic crack initiation/propagation on octahedral planes, and non-crystallographic initiation with crystallographic growth. Numerous cases of crack initiation and crack propagation at the blade leading edge tip, blade attachment regions, and damper contact locations have been documented. Understanding crack initiation/propagation under mixed-mode loading conditions is critical for establishing a systematic procedure for evaluating HCF life of single crystal turbine blades. This paper presents analytical and numerical techniques for evaluating two and three dimensional subsurface stress fields in anisotropic contacts. The subsurface stress results are required for evaluating contact fatigue life at damper contacts and dovetail attachment regions in single crystal nickel-base superalloy turbine blades. An analytical procedure is presented for evaluating the subsurface stresses in the elastic half-space, based on the adaptation of a stress function method outlined by Lekhnitskii. Numerical results are presented for cylindrical and spherical anisotropic contacts, using finite element analysis (FEA). Effects of crystal orientation on stress response and fatigue life are examined. Obtaining accurate subsurface stress results for anisotropic single crystal contact problems require extremely refined three-dimensional (3-D) finite element grids, especially in the edge of contact region. Obtaining resolved shear stresses (RSS) on the principal slip planes also involves considerable post-processing work. For these reasons it is very advantageous to develop analytical solution schemes for subsurface stresses, whenever possible.

Arakere, Nagaraj K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reusable, Extensible High-Level Data-Distribution Concept

A framework for high-level specification of data distributions in data-parallel application programs has been conceived. [As used here, distributions signifies means to express locality (more specifically, locations of specified pieces of data) in a computing system composed of many processor and memory components connected by a network.] Inasmuch as distributions exert a great effect on the performances of application programs, it is important that a distribution strategy be flexible, so that distributions can be adapted to the requirements of those programs. At the same time, for the sake of productivity in programming and execution, it is desirable that users be shielded from such error-prone, tedious details as those of communication and synchronization. As desired, the present framework enables a user to refine a distribution type and adjust it to optimize the performance of an application program and conceals, from the user, the low-level details of communication and synchronization. The framework provides for a reusable, extensible, data-distribution design, denoted the design pattern, that is independent of a concrete implementation. The design pattern abstracts over coding patterns that have been found to be commonly encountered in both manually and automatically generated distributed parallel programs. The following description of the present framework is necessarily oversimplified to fit within the space available for this article. Distributions are among the elements of a conceptual data-distribution machinery, some of the other elements being denoted domains, index sets, and data collections (see figure). Associated with each domain is one index set and one distribution. A distribution class interface (where "class" is used in the object-oriented-programming sense) includes operations that enable specification of the mapping of an index to a unit of locality. Thus, "Map(Index)" specifies a unit, while "LocalLayout(Index)" specifies the local address within that unit. The distribution class can be extended to enable specification of commonly used distributions or novel user-defined distributions. A data collection can be defined over a domain. The term "data collection" in this context signifies, more specifically, an abstraction of mappings from index sets to variables. Since the index set is distributed, the addresses of the variables are also distributed.

James, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1991

Finite-volume application of high-order ENO schemes to two-dimensional boundary-value problems

Finite-volume applications of high-order accurate ENO schemes to two-dimensional boundary-value problems are studied. These schemes achieve high-order spatial accuracy, in smooth regions, by a piecewise polynomial approximation of the solution from cell averages. In addition, this spatial operation involves an adaptive stencil algorithm in order to avoid the oscillatory behavior that is associated with interpolation across steep gradients. High-order TVD Runge-Kutta methods are employed for time integration, thus making these schemes best suited for unsteady problems. Fifth- and sixth-order accurate applications are validated through a grid refinement study involving the solutions of scalar hyperbolic equations. A previously proposed extension for the Euler equations of gas dynamics is tested, including its application to solutions of boundary-value problems involving solid walls and curvilinear coordinates.

Casper, Jay↗

NASA NTRS2023

Performance Modeling of Urban Air Mobility Vehicles to Support Air Traffic Management Research

The recent emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles has resulted in a need for flight performance models that enable comprehensive simulation-based research on air traffic management topics such as route structure, scheduling, and separation standards. Successful performance modeling methods exist for a wide range of traditional aircraft designs. However, comparable modeling methods appropriate for UAM vehicles that combine fixed-wing and rotorcraft performance have not yet been established. One challenge to progress has been the lack of available data capturing the performance characteristics and unique flight profiles of these aircraft. This paper describes methods used to generate the required performance data and the development of performance models for UAM vehicles. Included is a review of the energy and power equations often used in developing performance models for traditional aircraft as well as a discussion of their applicability to UAM vehicles. The challenge of generating realistic performance data in over-actuated vehicles transitioning from hover to cruise flight is also addressed through an approach based on objective function optimization. A table-based performance model format adapted to UAM configurations is described, as well as parametric models intended to accompany the performance table to allow detailed modeling of power and fuel consumption during accelerated flight, turning flight, or flight at an arbitrary climb or descent rate. A discussion of future work is also provided, including the need for refinement of UAM performance modeling methods and formats, especially in conjunction with improvements to aerodynamic modeling of vehicles with complex designs where strong interaction effects may dominate important regions of the flight envelope.

Performance Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2023

Performance Modeling of Urban Air Mobility Vehicles to Support Air Traffic Management Research

Performance Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis via CFD Simulation on the Impact of Graphite Anode Morphologies on the Discharge of a Lithium-Ion Battery

The morphology of electrode materials plays a crucial role in determining the performance of lithium-ion batteries. Traditional computational models often simplify graphite flakes as uniformly sized spheres, which limits their predictive accuracy. In this study, we present a computational workflow that overcomes these limitations by incorporating a more realistic representation of graphite morphologies. This workflow is designed to be flexible and reproducible, enabling efficient evaluation of electrochemical performance across diverse material structures. By exploring different graphite morphologies, our approach accelerates the optimization of material preparation techniques and processing conditions. Our findings reveal that incorporating greater morphological complexity leads to significant deviations from classical model predictions. Instead, our refined model offers a more accurate representation of battery discharge behavior, closely aligning with experimental data. This improvement underscores the importance of detailed morphological descriptions in advancing battery design and performance assessments. To promote accessibility and reproducibility, we provide the developed code for seamless integration with the COMSOL API, allowing researchers to implement and adapt it easily. This computational framework serves as a valuable tool for investigating the impact of graphite morphology on battery performance, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and experimental validation to enhance lithium-ion battery technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2016

Using Powder Cored Tubular Wire Technology to Enhance Electron Beam Freeform Fabricated Structures

Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) is an additive manufacturing technique, developed at NASA Langley Research Center, capable of fabricating large scale aerospace parts. Advantages of using EBF3 as opposed to conventional manufacturing methods include, decreased design-to-product time, decreased wasted material, and the ability to adapt controls to produce geometrically complex parts with properties comparable to wrought products. However, to fully exploit the potential of the EBF3 process development of materials tailored for the process is required. Powder cored tubular wire (PCTW) technology was used to modify Ti-6Al-4V and Al 6061 feedstock to enhance alloy content, refine grain size, and create a metal matrix composite in the as-solidified structures, respectively.

Gonzales, Devon↗

NASA NTRS2021

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Arctic↗