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At least 775 records · Page 43

Two-thirds of Global Cropland Area Impacted by Climate Oscillations

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationship between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

IOD↗

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗

Comparison of Magnetic Fields from a New Satellite Magnetic Model of the Lithosphere with Magnetic Fields Predicted from Crust 1.0

Both magnetic and seismic techniques can provide information about the Moho (Mohorovicic discontinuity). We develop a new technique that provides a better estimate of the magnetic thickness of the crust, as compared with previous approaches. It uses prior knowledge from seismology (Crust 1.0), a new high-degree model from CHAMP (CHAllenging Mini-satellite Payload) and Swarm (LCS-1 - a model of Earth's lithospheric field) and a newly developed technique. The technique is appropriate for regions where induced magnetization dominates over remanent magnetization. We compare the predictions from LCS-1 with those from Crust 1.0, with some simple assumptions, and find that the correlations increase until about spherical harmonic degree 30, and then decrease globally. Spatially, the correlations between the seismic and magnetic techniques are strongest over North America and Australia, and weakest over South America and northern Africa. Strong correlations also exist between the two approaches over the Antarctic, northern Europe, and Greenland. While we might expect the seismic and magnetic approaches to correlate over well-characterized regions (i.e. North America), and show weaker correlations over poorly-characterized regions (i.e. South America and north Africa), the strong correlation in the Antarctic and Greenland is puzzling, because both of these regions are poorly-characterized. We discuss some possible explanations, and implications, of this attempt to correlate seismic and magnetic approaches to characterizing the lithosphere.

Seismic↗

GPM, TRMM, and Other Global Precipitation Products and Services at NASA GES DISC

Precipitation is a key environmental variable. For example, in agriculture, precipitation, temperature, water (soil moisture), solar radiation, NDVI, etc., are key variables.Rainfed agriculture – major farming practices that rely on rainfall for water.Rainfed agriculture: >95% of farmed land (sub-Saharan Africa); 90% (Latin America); 75% (Near East and North Africa); 65% (East Asia); 60% (South Asia).Droughts and floods can cause severe crop loss. The Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC), one of 12 NASA data centers, is located in Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. The NASA GES DISC is a major data archive center for global precipitation, water & energy cycles, atmospheric composition, and climate variability.

Liu, Z.↗

Connecting Space to Village: Tethys Adoption Within SERVIR

The SERVIR program, a joint development initiative of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), works in partnership with leading regional organizations world-wide to help developing countries use information provided by Earth observing satellites and geospatial technologies for managing climate risks and land use. SERVIR empowers decision-makers with tools, products, and services to act locally on critical issues related to four key areas: Food Security and Agriculture, Water and Water-related Disasters, Land Use/Land Cover and Ecosystems, Weather and Climate. SERVIR is improving awareness, increasing access to information, and supporting analysis to help people in West Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), the Lower Mekong, South America and Mesoamerica. NASA funds an Applied Sciences Team (AST), composed of experts from universities and research institutions around the United States. Through AST, SERVIR adopted the Tethys platform introduced by Brigham Young University (BYU) for the implementation of tools to deliver scientific data to stakeholders in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. Several Tethys applications developed within SERVIR have raised interest amongst decision makers in the countries served by our regional hubs. They see these new apps as key vehicles to disseminate complex information related to weather models, hydrological models, and air quality monitoring, and as such the scope of our Tethys efforts continue to expand to other regions. As of July 2019, each one of the SERVIR hubs (with the exception of Amazonia, which has only recently started), have stood up Tethys portals and have at least one individual trained in the implementation and maintenance of a Tethys portal and in the creation of basic applications. HKH, with BYU's valuable support, has implemented very sophisticated applications that showcase the possibilities and the benefits that the Tethys platform brings.

Tethys↗

SERVIR: Leveraging the Expertise of a Space Agency and a Development Agency to Increase Impact of Earth Observation in the Developing World

SERVIR is a joint initiative of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), in collaboration with leading technical organizations around the world-- called SERVIR hubs--that serve and empower developing countries to use satellite data addressing critical challenges in food security and agriculture; water and water-related disasters; land cover, land use and ecosystems; and weather and climate. Over the past fourteen years, the program has worked with stakeholders in 50 countries across the world, partnered with 390 institutions, and generated and shared over 70 products from 27 satellites and sensors. In that process, around 7,400 specialists have been trained in the application of Earth observation data and technology. In its lifetime, SERVIR has been agile and innovative in shifting from what was essentially an incubator for testing and deploying Earth observation science and technology to making co-development the hallmark of its work, exemplified by both South-South and North-South scientific collaborations. SERVIR’s approach has embodied the concept that to solve really big problems, big, creative solutions are needed. SERVIR represents the world working together to address environmental challenges using spaced-based and geospatial technologies. Aligning with the very meaning of SERVIR, i.e. “to serve,” the program continues to be demand-driven in developing and deploying services (versus one-off products) which address development challenges using geospatial tools and Earth observation science. In 2016, as part of SERVIR’s evolution, USAID and NASA released the ‘SERVIR Service Planning Toolkit,’ a guidance document which provides a framework for how geospatial services can be used to tackle development challenges in a sustained manner. Since then, the Service Planning Toolkit’s systematic approach has begun to catch on in other Earth observation efforts. To improve access and use, SERVIR launched a Service Catalogue in February 2019, a searchable collection of demand-driven geospatial services that use Earth observations to support decision making. SERVIR implementing hub partners –include SERVIR-West Africa at the Agrometeorology, Hydrology and Meteorology (AGRHYMET) Regional Center, in Niamey, Niger; SERVIR-Eastern & Southern Africa at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development in Nairobi, Kenya; SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Kathmandu, Nepal; SERVIR-Mekong at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in Bangkok, Thailand; and SERVIR’ -Amazonia, at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Cali, Colombia.

Searby, Nancy D.↗

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗

Improvements in CALIOP Smoke Optical Depth over Clouds

Smoke over marine stratocumulus is ubiquitous off the south west coast of Africa during biomass burning season. The vertical profile measurements provided by the CALIOP lidar are successfully able to distinguish between smoke and underlying clouds. With over 14 years of observations, the CALIOP data set is a valuable asset for quantifying the radiative impact of smoke over clouds in this region. However past studies have shown that CALIOP overestimates the base altitudes of strongly attenuating smoke layers. This is because CALIOP layer detection operates on the 532 nm attenuated backscatter signal. Smoke strongly attenuates light at this wavelength, so CALIOP feature detection at times assigns a base altitude that is higher than the true layer base for optically thick layers. This can be confirmed by the 1064 nm attenuated backscatter signal, also measured by CALIOP. In order to improve the AOD for smoke over clouds, a new algorithm has been implemented in for an upcoming CALIOP level 2 data release that will extend the base altitudes of smoke layers over clouds. Tunable restrictions are put in place to ensure that smoke bases are only extended within a reasonable smoke-to-cloud gap distance and only when there is strong reason to believe that smoke exists within the gap. This presentation will summarize the new smoke base extension algorithm and summarize its performance. We will demonstrate that base extension is primarily invoked off the south west coast of Africa as expected. We will also quantify the increase in smoke AOD that will be reported in the upcoming level 2 data release.

Jason L Tackett↗

First Measurements of Ambient PM2.5 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazzaville, Republic of Congo Using Field-calibrated Low-cost Sensors

Estimates of air pollution mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are limited by a lack of surface observations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Despite being large metropolises, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), population 14.3 million, and Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo (ROC), population 2.4 million, have no reference air pollution monitors at the time of writing. Recently, a few reference monitors have been deployed in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Kampala, Uganda. A low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated next to the Kampala US Embassy BAM-1020 (Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor) starting in August 2019. Raw PurpleAir data are strongly correlated with the BAM (r(exp 2) = 0.88), but have a mean absolute error of approximately 14 μg/cu.m. Two calibration models, multiple linear regression and a random forest approach, decrease mean absolute error (MAE) from 14.3 μg/cu.m to 3.4 µg/cu.m or less and improve the the r(exp 2) from 0.88 to 0.96. Given )the similarity in climate and emissions in Kampala, we apply the collocated field correction factors to four PurpleAir sensors in Kinshasa, DRC and one in neighboring Brazzaville, ROC deployed beginning April 2018. Annual average PM2.5 for 2019 in Kinshasa is estimated at 43.5 µg/cu.m, more than 4 times higher than WHO Interim Target 1 of 10 µg/cu.m. Surface PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth were each about 40% lower during the 2020 COVID19 lockdown period compared to the same time period in 2019, which cannot be explained by changes in meteorology or wildfire emissions alone. Our results highlight the need for clean air solutions implementation in the Congo.

Celeste McFarlane↗

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as Simulated in the PlioMIP2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene↗

Gulf of Mexico Health and Air Quality: Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Potential Methane Sources for Improved Monitoring of Offshore Oil & Gas Activity in the Gulf of Mexico

The extraction, production, and transportation of oil and gas is a leading contributor to anthropogenic methane emissions via activities such as flaring and venting. The Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management (BOEM) has air quality jurisdiction offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and drafts regulations for criteria pollutants, while the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) enforces these regulations. Additionally, the non-profit organization SkyTruth monitors natural resources, including methane. BOEM, BSEE, and SkyTruth have partnered with NASA DEVELOP to use Earth observations to identify potential offshore methane sources in the Gulf of Mexico and to validate reported flaring activity. This information will allow BOEM and BSEE to make informed regulations regarding air pollution. Here, we cross-referenced BOEM infrastructure data with Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Nightfire data to validate operator-reported flaring. Sentinel-5p TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) pollutant concentrations were used to validate VIIRS-detected flaring outside of the Gulf of Mexico where operator-reported data is unavailable. Using these methods, we identified the locations of offshore oil and gas infrastructure with known episodic flaring and venting in 2017 in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as offshore of South America and West Africa in 2021. Drawing upon retrieval methods used to detect onshore methane emissions, we proposed an analogous method utilizing sunglint to illuminate methane plumes over the ocean using Sentinel-2 Multispectral Imager (MSI) imagery. We detected two potential methane plumes – one at the Constitution complex in the Gulf of Mexico in July 2017 and one off the Coast of Lagos, West Africa, in July 2021.

Kate Howell↗

Model Performance in Simulating the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara

The Green Sahara Period, spanning about 11,500 to 5,000 years ago, offers an opportunity to test the ability of climate models to simulate large-scale changes in northern African climate through the strengthening of the West African Monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performance of four models in simulating the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP), namely – EC-Earth, iCESM, CCSM4-Toronto, and the GISS ModelE2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – a standard PMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as a Green-Sahara scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. All mid-Holocene scenarios capture an increase in monsoonal precipitation in northern Africa. However, a comparison of the two mid-Holocene scenarios reveals significantly higher precipitation in northern Africa for all the Green-Sahara scenarios relative to the PMIP scenarios – an observation consistent across all models. Accompanied by a strengthened Saharan Heat Low, these changes in the West African Monsoon are also linked to polar amplification, a stronger Indian Summer Monsoon and alterations to the Walker circulation. Model results are in agreement with pollen-based SAT records, multi-proxy SST records and African lake level records. This comparison indicates that a realistic simulation of the mid-Holocene Green Sahara requires consideration of multiple factors in addition to orbital and greenhouse gas forcings.

Green Sahara Period↗

Excessive Subsidence of the Southeast Atlantic Biomass Burning Aerosol Plume in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model

Global models struggle to accurately represent the meteorological environment over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean, as evidenced by the poor representation of persistent marine stratocumulus decks off the west coast of southern Africa. This complex regime also experiences significant seasonal biomass burning aerosol plumes that are transported from southern Africa over the Atlantic Ocean, which gradually descend via large scale subsidence and interact radiatively and microphysically with the cloudy environment of the region. In comparisons to space borne lidar and aircraft observations we find that the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model’s MERRA-2 aerosol and meteorology reanalysis shows that the aerosol plume descends too rapidly due to exaggerated large-scale downward vertical motion. This complicates the evaluation of aerosol properties utilizing aircraft observations collected throughout the ORACLES campaign as well as the model’s representation of the heating rate profiles due to the aerosol itself and its radiative interaction with the semi-permanent cloud deck typically located lower in altitude than the smoke. Two types of modeling experiments using GEOS will be presented to diagnose deficiencies in the model related to the excessive subsidence. Ensembles of free-running model simulations with and without radiatively active biomass burning aerosol will be used to quantify the impact of smoke on the atmospheric circulation. It will be demonstrated that heating within the aerosol layer results in self lofting through a reduction of the subsidence but did not alter the vertical placement or speed of the African Easterly jet. The amount of aerosol absorption required to eliminate the bias in the height of the aerosol plume through self-lofting will then be quantified. Finally, a second type of modeling experiment will be discussed in which the meteorology is constrained to observations. This will allow for biases in the height of the aerosol plume due to the general circulation model to be distinguished from biases that may be induced through the data assimilation process.

Allison Collow↗

Trace Elemental Abundances in Calcium-Aluminum-Rich Inclusions in CV Chondrites

Introduction: Calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), are the first formed solids that define the age of the Solar System [1,2]. CAIs are thought to have condensed from nebular gas [3,4] within the first <1 Ma of Solar System formation [5,6]. CAIs have experienced numerous early Solar System processes including condensation, evaporation, melting, recrystallization, and aqueous alteration [e.g., 7]. The chemical, mineralogical, and textural diversity among CAIs results from a range of chemical and physical processes recorded during nebular and parent body epoch. This study aims to explore the mineralogical, textural, and chemical compositions of CAIs including the trace elemental abundances in CAI phases to determine the early Solar System processes recorded in them. Samples and Analytical Methods: We analyzed one CAI each from CV3 chondrites Northwest Africa (NWA) 5508 designated as ‘Saguaro’, and Northwest Africa (NWA) 12772 designated as ‘Hoopoe’. Back-scatter electron (BSE) images were collected using a Phenom XL scanning electron microscope (SEM) at the Lunar and Planetary Institute (LPI) and the JEOL JXA-8530F electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) at Johnson Space Center (JSC)-NASA. Additionally, energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDS) elemental maps of select areas for these samples were collected using a 15.0kV beam energy and a 40µA emission current. Using the EPMA, wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (WDS) quantitative data were collected. In-situ trace element measurements for both CAIs were determined at JSC-NASA using a Photon Machines 193nm laser ablation system and a Thermo-Scientific Element-XR inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). Analyses consisted of 30s ablations at 10Hz, spot sizes of 20-25µm, and a fluence of 6.0 J/cm2 for anorthite and melilite, and a 3.5 J/cm2 fluence for all other phases. NIST612 was used to correct for instrument drift, while BHVO-2g was used as a primary calibration standard. BCR-2g and in-house mineral standards were regularly measured as unknowns to ensure accuracy. Results: Saguaro is a coarse-grained CAI, ~11 x 6 mm in dimensions. Saguaro contains spinel, Al-rich pyroxene, anorthite, Mg-rich melilite, and minor perovskite in its interior and is therefore classified as a Type B CAI. Individual melilite grains shows normal compositional zoning with an Ak content ranging from ~24 to 54 with no apparent trend from the core to the edge of the CAI. The spinel appears euhedral and occurs both as clusters and as spinel palisades [8]. Two rim sequences surround most of the sample: the inner rim being a Wark-Lovering (WL) rim (~10-35 µm) containing pyroxene, spinel, and melilite (or anorthite), and the outer rim is a finer-grained, thicker (~100 µm), accretionary rim (Fig. 1). The mineral phases in Saguaro record an overall flat REE pattern with an average negative Eu anomaly in pyroxene, and an average positive Eu anomaly in anorthite and melilite respectively. Anorthite, melilite, and pyroxene have a minor depletion in Tm (Fig. 2). The Hoopoe CAI is a compact, coarse-grained ~6 × 4 mm in size. The major mineralogy includes hibonite, spinel, melilite, anorthite, and perovskite. Therefore, it is classified as a compact transitional type A and B. (?)zoning was observed in some hibonites. Individual melilite grains show both reverse and normal zoning, where the Ak content ranges from ~6- to 28. Melilite shows two distinct textures. One texture consisted of smooth melilite that appeared homogenous, while the second appeared to consist of many fine fractures. The spinel also often appears clustered. The WL-rim sequence surrounding Hoopoe is ~25 µm thick and composed of spinel, perovskite, hibonite, and melilite/anorthite. It is then partially surrounded by an outer accretionary rim (~75µm). Like before, refractory metal nuggets appeared concentrated near the WL rims. Other metal assemblages rich in Fe and Ni were also observed. All major mineral phases in Hoopoe display relatively flat REE patterns, except for varying Eu and Tm between phases (Fig. 2). There is a prominent negative Eu anomaly in perovskite and an average positive Eu anomaly in spinel, anorthite, and hibonite respectively (Fig. 2, 3). The mixed phases along the rim of the CAI also display a negative Eu anomaly, and all phases the CAI were depleted in Pb. Discussion: The CV3 CAIs analyzed in this study were classified based on their mineralogy and textures into Type A versus Type B CAIs [10]. Hibonite appears to be pseudomorphically replacing the spinel, (i.e., is hibonite in composition, but appears in the shape of spinel). Spinel palisades. The presence of spinel palisades present in Saguaro are consistent with the melting and recrystallization experienced by this CAI. Trace elemental analyses. Saguaro and Hoopoe display similar trace element patterns to each other, with both appearing generally flat, with anomalies in Eu, and Tm. Melilite and anorthite display positive Eu anomalies in both CAIs, in addition to the hibonite in Hoopoe (Fig. 2). The phases that are depleted in Eu are pyroxene and perovskite in both Saguaro and Hoopoe, respectively (Fig. 3). Given that Eu is volatile in reducing environments [11], this could possibly indicate reducing conditions at the time anorthite and melilite crystallized, with the gas they formed from containing Eu. As these CAIs continued to form, this gas as a result would become depleted in Eu. This also could be supported by the propensity of anorthite and melilite to take up Eu from its surroundings and incorporate it into their structure [12]. In addition, analyzing the assemblage of the phases in the Saguaro, melilite and anorthite (Eu enriched) often surround the pyroxene (Eu depleted) as they are crystallized. This intergrowth of phases and the proximity of the phases would support that the Eu is being incorporated into some phases, preventing it from incorporating into other. Trace elemental analyses of the CAI rims will be evaluated in more detail, as they are complicated by the transient signal being composed of a mixture of mineral phases. Broadly, however, the patterns in the rims of both CAIs are comparable to each other, and for Hoopoe, to the mixed phase patterns in the core (Fig. 3). Other studies have found that CAI rims can be depleted in Ce and Yb [13], however we did not observe these anomalies in the two CAIs discussed here. Given their similarity, the trace elemental analyses of the mixed interior (i.e. core) and rim phases could be interpreted as forming from similar, if not the same, reservoirs. The REE abundance between the rim and core of Hoopoe are also similar, indicating they may have formed from a gas of the same or similar composition. Acknowledgments: We thank the ASU Center for Meteorite Studies for loaning the samples used in this work and Tabb Prissel for his assistance with the analysis. Mouti Al-Hashimi thanks Sam Crossley and Cyrena Goodrich for their help with the LPI SEM training. This work was supported by the LPI Summer Intern Program in Planetary Science and the LPI Cooperative Agreement. References: [1] Connelly J.N. (2012) Science, 338, 651-655. [2] MacPherson G. J. (2014) Treatise on Geochem., 2, 139-179. [3] Grossman L. (1972) GCA, 36, 597-619. [4] Ebel, D.S. (2006) Meteorites and the Early Solar System II (D. S. Lauretta & H. Y. McSween, Eds.) 253-277. [5] MacPherson G. J. (2012) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 331-332, 43-54. [6] MacPherson G.J. (2017) GCA, 201, 65-82. [7] Krot A.N. (1995) Meteoritics & Planet. Sci., 30, 748-775. [8] Wark and Lovering (1982) GCA, 46, 2595-2607. [9] Palme H. and Jones A. (2003) Treatise on Geochemistry (H. D. Holland and K. K. Turekian Eds.), 1, 41-61. [10] Grossman L. (1980) Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 8, 559-608. [11] Floss C. et al. (1996) GCA, 60, 1975-1997. [12] Mason B. and Martin P. M. (1974) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 22, 141-144. [13] Wark B. and Boynton W. V. (2001) Meteoritics & Planet. Sci., 36, 1135-1166.

X Mouti↗

Alternative Vegetation States in Tropical Forests and Savannas: The Search for Consistent Signals in Diverse Remote Sensing Data

Globally, the spatial distribution of vegetation is governed primarily by climatological factors (rainfall and temperature, seasonality, and inter-annual variability). The local distribution of vegetation, however, depends on local edaphic conditions (soils and topography) and disturbances (fire, herbivory, and anthropogenic activities). Abrupt spatial or temporal changes in vegetation distribution can occur if there are positive (i.e., amplifying) feedbacks favoring certain vegetation states under otherwise similar climatic and edaphic conditions. Previous studies in the tropical savannas of Africa and other continents using the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation continuous fields (VCF) satellite data product have focused on discontinuities in the distribution of tree cover at different rainfall levels, with bimodal distributions (e.g., concentrations of high and low tree cover) interpreted as alternative vegetation states. Such observed bimodalities over large spatial extents may not be evidence for alternate states, as they may include regions that have different edaphic conditions and disturbance histories. In this study, we conduct a systematic multi-scale analysis of diverse MODIS data streams to quantify the presence and spatial consistency of alternative vegetation states in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis is based on the premise that major discontinuities in vegetation structure should also manifest as consistent spatial patterns in a range of remote sensing data streams, including, for example, albedo and land surface temperature (LST). Our results confirm previous observations of bimodal and multimodal distributions of estimated tree cover in the MODIS VCF. However, strong disagreements in the location of multimodality between VCF and other data streams were observed at 1 km scale. Results suggest that the observed distribution of VCF over vast spatial extents are multimodal, not because of local-scale feedbacks and emergent bifurcations (the definition of alternative states), but likely because of other factors including regional scale differences in woody dynamics associated with edaphic, disturbance, and/or anthropogenic processes. These results suggest the need for more in-depth consideration of bifurcation mechanisms and thus the likely spatial and temporal scales at which alternative states driven by different positive feedback processes should manifest.

Savanna↗

Changing Intensity of Hydroclimatic Extreme Events Revealed by GRACE and GRACE-FO

Distortion of the water cycle, particularly of its extremes (droughts and pluvials), will be among the most conspicuous consequences of climate change. We applied a novel approach with terrestrial water storage observations from the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites to delineate and characterize 1,056 extreme events during 2002-2021. Dwarfing all other events was an ongoing pluvial that began in 2019 and engulfed central Africa. Total intensity of extreme events was strongly correlated with global mean temperature, more so than with the El Nino Southern Oscillation or other climate indicators, suggesting that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, longer, and/or larger droughts and pluvials. In three regions, including a vast swath extending from southern Europe to southwestern China, the ratio of wet to dry extreme events decreased substantially over the study period, while the opposite was true in two regions, including sub-Saharan Africa from 5°N to 20°N.

Climate change↗

Where Dust Comes from: Global Assessment of Dust Source Attributions with AeroCom Models

The source of dust in the global atmosphere is an important factor to better understand the role of dust aerosols in the climate system. However, it is a difficult task to attribute the airborne dust over the remote land and ocean regions to their origins since dust from various sources are mixed during long-range transport. Recently, a multi-model experiment, namely the AeroCom-III Dust Source Attribution (DUSA), has been conducted to estimate the relative contribution of dust in various locations from different sources with tagged simulations from seven participating global models. The BASE run and a series of runs with nine tagged regions were made to estimate the contribution of dust emitted in East- and West-Africa, Middle East, Central- and East-Asia, North America, the Southern Hemisphere, and the prominent dust hot spots of the Bodélé and Taklimakan Deserts. The models generally agree in large scale mean dust distributions, however models show large diversity in dust source attribution. The inter-model differences are significant with the global model dust diversity in 30%–50%, but the differences in regional and seasonal scales are even larger. The multi-model analysis estimates that North Africa contributes 60% of global atmospheric dust loading, followed by Middle East and Central Asia sources (24%). Southern hemispheric sources account for 10% of global dust loading, however it contributes more than 70% of dust over the Southern Hemisphere. The study provides quantitative estimates of the impact of dust emitted from different source regions on the globe and various receptor regions including remote land, ocean, and the polar regions synthesized from the seven models.

Dust source attribution, Aerosol, Model↗

The Land Surface in Current and Planned MERRA Reanalysis Products

Current global atmospheric reanalysis products such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q) provide estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including soil moisture, soil temperature, snow mass, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff, that are widely used in research and applications. These land surface estimates are based on land surface process models and, depending on the reanalysis product, on precipitation observations or the assimilation of land surface observations of soil moisture, soil temperature, snow conditions, and screen-level air temperature and humidity from satellite observations and in situ measurements. In this presentation, we review the land surface modeling and data assimilation components of the suite of current and planned MERRA reanalysis products. In addition to MERRA-2, we will discuss the latest NASA reanalysis, MERRA for the 21st century (M21C), which is currently under production, as well as the development and planning of the next version of the MERRA reanalysis, tentatively labeled MERRA-3. In MERRA-2, observations-based precipitation data products are used to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. Outside of the high-latitudes and Africa, the daily, 0.5-degree, gauge-based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified (CPCU) product is used. In Africa, the pentad, 2.5-degree, satellite- and gauge-based CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) product is used. Poleward of 62.5 degrees latitude, the land surface sees the precipitation generated by the atmospheric model in the cycling data assimilation system. This configuration provides improved soil moisture estimates compared to those of the original (version 1) MERRA estimates, which did not benefit from the use of precipitation observations. Moreover, the use of precipitation observations facilitates a seamless spin-up of the land surface initial conditions across the MERRA-2 production streams. The use of a gauge-only precipitation product in MERRA-2 across much of the globe, however, adversely impacts the quality of the MERRA-2 land surface estimates in regions with poor gauge coverage, including most of South America and Australia. Therefore, the forthcoming M21C reanalysis uses satellite- and gauge-based precipitation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG). This change results in significant improvements in the quality of the M21C soil moisture estimates in the Southern Hemisphere compared to those from MERRA-2. Planning for MERRA-3 focuses on the assimilation of soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), along with snow cover area fraction observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to further improve the quality of the land surface estimates from the reanalysis. As a first step towards the assimilation of land surface observations in MERRA-3, the offline (land-only) M21C-Land reanalysis is currently under development as a supplemental M21C product that includes the assimilation of SMAP, ASCAT, and MODIS observations. Preliminary results from M21C and M21C-Land will be discussed in the context of MERRA-2 and plans for MERRA-3.

Rolf Reichle↗