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NASA NTRS2016

Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

Cirrus↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of Spanwise Variable Impedance Liners with Three-Dimensional Aeroacoustics Propagation Codes

Three perforate-over-honeycomb liner configurations, one uniform and two with spanwise variable impedance, are evaluated based on tests conducted in the NASA Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) with a plane-wave source. Although the GFIT is only 2" wide, spanwise impedance variability clearly affects the measured acoustic pressure field, such that three-dimensional (3D) propagation codes are required to properly predict this acoustic pressure field. Three 3D propagation codes (CHE3D, COMSOL, and CDL) are used to predict the sound pressure level and phase at eighty-seven microphones flush-mounted in the GFIT (distributed along all four walls). The CHE3D and COMSOL codes compare favorably with the measured data, regardless of whether an exit acoustic pressure or anechoic boundary condition is employed. Except for those frequencies where the attenuation is large, the CDL code also provides acceptable estimates of the measured acoustic pressure profile. The CHE3D and COMSOL predictions diverge slightly from the measured data for frequencies away from resonance, where the attenuation is noticeably reduced, particularly when an exit acoustic pressure boundary condition is used. For these conditions, the CDL code actually provides slightly more favorable comparison with the measured data. Overall, the comparisons of predicted and measured data suggest that any of these codes can be used to understand data trends associated with spanwise variable-impedance liners.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗
NASA NTRS2018

Variables Influencing RNAV STAR Adherence

In this study we investigated how variables in the aviation domain impact adherence levels of aircraft flying area navigation arrivals with optimized profile descents (RNAV OPDs) (RNAV STARs: aRea NAVigation Standard Terminal Arrival Routes). Variable categories were: weather, aircraft, procedure, and traffic. Non-adherence events analyzed were: miss above, miss below, skip before merge, and skip after merge. Miss below and miss above describe when a flight does not comply vertically with a procedure. Skips refer to a flight leaving a procedure, then returning. Findings of this work reveal that vertical events are most impacted by altitude restriction size, steepness of flight paths, and merging routes. Lateral events were impacted by merging flight conflicts, number of speed restrictions, and the flow rate of the arrival traffic. This study helps increase understanding of how the system is functioning and identifies where procedures are not flexible enough to handle the variability in normal operations.major airports, procedure design, and recommendations for future work.

RNAV OPD↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Ability of GeoCarb to Constrain the Interannual Variability of Carbon Gases over the Amazon

We perform a number of idealized assimilation experiments with the GEOS constituent data assimilation system to test the ability of GeoCarb retrievals of CO, CO2, and CH4 to constrain the interannual variability of these gases over the Amazon. Retrievals for instruments on other satellites which observe in similar channels (e.g. MOPITT, GOSAT, and OCO-2) are limited due to persistent cloud coverage. Given its ability to sample the same location multiple times in one day, the expectation is that GeoCarb retrievals will return more soundings than those from previous missions. The goal of the assimilation experiments is to understand which scanning strategies lead to the best sounding densities and thus have the best chance of constraining interannual variability in the carbon species. The experiments each begin by picking a given year at random from a nature run (i.e., a model simulation meant to represent the truth). The model fields are sampled according to a given strategy and then screened to account for cloud coverage. Next, we pick another year at random and assimilate the synthetic GeoCarb samples into the GEOS model for that year. The output of the assimilation, 6-hourly, 3D fields of each constituent, is then directly comparable to the nature run. This comparison allows us to evaluate the ability of GeoCarb measurements to constrain the interannual variability of each gas.

Weir, B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability and Trends of Combustion Aerosol and Dust in Major Continental Outflows Revealed by MODIS Retrievals and CAM5 Simulations During 2003-2017

Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers both satellite and model perspectives of interannual variability and possible trend of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow regions over the past 15 years (2003-2017). The decade-long record of aerosol optical depth (AOD, denoted as t), separately for combustion aerosol (τ(sub c)) and dust (τ(sub d)), over global oceans is derived from the Collection 6 aerosol products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard both Terra and Aqua. These MODIS/Aqua datasets, complemented by aerosol source-tagged simulations using the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5), are then analyzed to understand the interannual variability and potential trend of τ(sub c) and τ(sub d) in the major continental outflows. Both MODIS and CAM5 consistently yield a similar decreasing trend of -0.017 to - 0.020 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) over the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea that is attributable to reduced emissions from North America and Europe, respectively. On the contrary, both MODIS and CAM5 display an increasing trend of +0.017 to +0.036 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, which reflects the influence of increased anthropogenic emissions from South Asia and Middle East in the last two decades. Over the northwestern Pacific Ocean that is often affected by East Asian emissions of pollution and dust, the MODIS retrievals show a decreasing trend of - 0.021 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) and -0.012 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub d), which is however not reproduced by the CAM5 model. In other outflow regions strongly influenced by biomass burning smoke or dust, both MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations show no statistically significant trends; and the MODIS observed interannual variability is usually larger than that of the CAM5 simulation.

Hongbin Yu↗
NASA NTRS2019

Static Torsion Testing and Modeling of a Variable Thickness Hybrid Composite Bull Gear

Torsional strength of a variable thickness hybrid gear web was measured by performing static testing on the part in a large torsion test frame. The outer rim of the hybrid gear web was fixed to the bottom of the test frame and loading was applied to the web through a shaft. The test setup included the installation of digital image correlation (DIC) systems to obtain deformation and strain measurements from the surfaces of the hybrid gear web and the mechanical test equipment to ensure reliability of the test. The results indicated that the variable thickness hybrid gear web achieved approximately twice the torsional strength compared to that of previous hybrid gear designs. The DIC analysis showed significantly more straining of the loading shaft than the actual test article. Additionally, the results demonstrated the importance and affect that the metallic, lobed interlock features had on the principal strain and out-of-plane displacement fields. The analysis revealed that the fixed outer rim was in fact rotating and a rigid body motion compensation (RBMC) function was computed to determine the actual rotation of the hub and composite web relative to the outer rim. Modeling simulations were performed for the variable thickness hybrid gear web and correlated well with the RBMC rotational deformation seen in the DIC analysis. In addition to benchmarking the load capacity of the hybrid gear web, measuring its strength is useful information to define the parameters needed for dynamic, endurance, and other testing of the part.

Johnston, Joel P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Initial Developments of a Low Drag Variable Depth Acoustic Liner

The purpose of this study is to assess the acoustic performance and relative drag of a new type of variable depth liner containing pairs of resonators coupled together by shared inlet volumes just below the facesheet. This type of liner has the potential to achieve a targeted impedance with fewer openings in the facesheet, and therefore less drag, than previous designs. To better understand the limitations of the concept, three sets of samples were designed and tested in the NASA Langley normal incidence and grazing flow impedance tubes. Each set of samples consisted of a baseline variable depth liner with straight chambers, and a prototype liner with shared inlet volumes. Measurements conducted in both the normal incidence and grazing flow impedance tubes confirm that the prototype liner can achieve the same impedance as the baseline variable depth liner at discrete frequencies with 50% less open area. This results in a 75% reduction in the drag penalty relative to the baseline design. The proposed concept is not, however, able to achieve a flat, broadband impedance as effectively as the baseline liner. So, while the proposed concept is well suited for multitonal design metrics, tradeoffs must be made between liner drag and acoustic performance when broadband attenuation is required.

Schiller, Noah H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HSRL-2 Observations of Aerosol Variability and Mixing During Boundary Layer Evolution in Houston

The NASA Langley airborne multi-wavelength High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) provides vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties as ?curtains? of aerosol extinction, backscatter and depolarization along the flight track, plus intensive properties that are used to infer aerosol type and external mixing of types. Deployed aboard the NASA Langley King Air on the DISCOVER-AQ field mission in Houston in September 2013, HSRL-2 flew a pattern that included 18 ground sites, repeated four times a day, coordinated with a suite of airborne in situ measurements. The horizontally and vertically resolved curtains of HSRL-2 measurements give an unparalleled view of the spatial and temporal variability of aerosol, which provide broad context for interpreting other measurements and models. In Houston, HSRL-2 generally observed significant variability with distinct layering: boundary layer, residual layer, and frequent upper layers of smoke transported from the Mississippi Valley. The period from Sep. 11-14 is notable for a large aerosol build-up and persistent layers in the free troposphere. We investigate the aerosol properties and evolution using the vertically resolved HSRL-2 measurements, typing and mixture analysis techniques, and boundary layer detection. Between morning and afternoon overpasses, as the boundary layer grows, many distinctions between the layers are lost as the aerosols become mixed. As the boundary layer collapses overnight, the aerosols are cut off and are observed in a distinct residual layer the following day. HSRL-2 measurements of the upper smoke layers suggest slightly different properties each day as new smoke enters the region, while the morning boundary layer indicates more similarity in local emissions day-to-day. HSRL-2 intensive variables (indicators of aerosol type) reflect complex yet predictable mixing. We will present the analysis of aerosol mixtures, and explore the WRF-Chem chemical transport model along the HSRL-2 flight path.

Sharon P Burton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variety in the Variability of Accreting Supermassive Binary Black Holes

Accreting supermassive binary black holes are key multi-messenger sources for LISA, yet are challenging to simulate realistically as solving the radiation magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations over the full dynamic spatio-temporal range of the problem is computationally infeasible at present. We report on our collaboration's progress simulating these systems using general relativistic MHD simulations and dynamic GR. In order to cover a larger temporal range in one set of simulations, we constrain our view to the circumbinary disk region and measure the effects binary mass ratio, accretion disk size, and black hole spin have on the structure and variability of the accretion flow. We particularly emphasize how these parameters influence the overdensity feature, which orbits the binary near the edge of the cavity, since it is responsible for most of the electromagnetic emission's variability and variability is a key signature of a system being a binary. Extending to smaller length scales, we will report on simulations following accretion all the down to the event horizons so that we can begin to investigate how black hole spin affects mini-disk dynamics, accretion rate, and jet power.

Scott C Noble↗
NASA NTRS2020

The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century

Substantial marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric changes have occurred over the Greenland region during the last century. Several studies have documented record‐levels of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summer melt extent during the 2000s and 2010s, but relatively little work has been carried out to assess regional climatic changes in other seasons. Here, we focus on the less studied cold‐season (i.e., autumn and winter) climate, tracing the long‐term (1873–2013) variability of Greenland's air temperatures through analyses of coastal observations and model‐derived outlet glacier series and their linkages with North Atlantic sea ice, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation indices. Through a statistical framework, large amounts of west and south Greenland temperature variance (up to r^2~50%) can be explained by the seasonally‐contemporaneous combination of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; hereafter the combination of GBI and NAO is termed GBI). Lagged and concomitant regional sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seasonal indices account for small amounts of residual air temperature variance (r^2<~10%) relative to the GBI. The correlations between GBI and cold‐season temperatures are predominantly positive and statistically‐significant through time, while regional SIC conditions emerge as a significant covariate from the mid‐20th century through the conclusion of the study period. The inclusion of the cold‐season Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in multivariate analyses bolsters the air temperature variance explained by the North Atlantic regional predictors, suggesting the remote, background climate state is important to long‐term Greenland temperature variability. These findings imply that large‐scale tropospheric circulation has a strong control on surface temperature over Greenland through dynamic and thermodynamic impacts and stress the importance of understanding the evolving two‐way linkages between the North Atlantic marine and atmospheric environment in order to more accurately predict Greenland seasonal climate variability and change through the 21st century.

air temperatures↗
NASA NTRS2020

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie↗
NASA NTRS2021

Testing Short-term Variability and Sampling of Primary Volatiles in Comet 46P/Wirtanen

The exceptionally favorable close approach of Jupiter-family comet 46P/Wirtanen in 2018 December enabled characterization of its primary volatile composition with exceptionally high spatial resolution and sensitivities using the iSHELL spectrograph at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility on Maunakea, HI. We sampled emissions from H2O, HCN, C2H2, NH3,C2H6, and CH3OH on UT 2018 December 21 using two instrumental settings that spanned the 2.9–3.6μm spectral region. We also obtained a sensitive 3σupper limit for H2CO and for the rarely studied molecule HC3N. We report rotational temperatures, production rates, and mixing ratios(relative to H2O as well as to C2H6). We place our results in context by comparing them with other comets observed at near-IR wavelengths. We also compare our results with those obtained using the NIRSPEC-2 spectrograph on Keck II on UT December 17 and 18 and with results obtained from iSHELL on other dates during the same apparition. Within1–2σ uncertainty, production rates obtained for all molecules in this work were consistent with those obtained using NIRSPEC-2 except H2O, indicating low-level variability on a timescale of days. Mixing ratios with respect to H2O in 46P/Wirtanen were consistent with corresponding values from NIRSPEC-2 within the uncertainty with the exception of CH3OH, which yielded a higher ratio on December 21. Our measurements afforded a high temporal resolution that spanned∼2/3 of the rotational period of 46P/Wirtanen, enabling us to test short-term variability in the production rates of H2O and HCN due to rotational effects. Both H2O and HCN production rates showed similar temporal variability, resulting in nearly constant HCN/H2O

Younas Khan↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impacts of Water Clarity Variability on Temperature and Biogeochemistry in the Chesapeake Bay

Estuarine water clarity depends on the concentrations of aquatic constituents, such as colored dissolved organic matter, phytoplankton, inorganic suspended solids, and detritus, which are influenced by variations in riverine inputs. These constituents directly affect temperature because when water is opaque, sunlight heats a shallower layer of the water compared to when it is clear. Despite the importance of accurately predicting temperature variability, many numerical modeling studies do not adequately account for this key process. In this study, we quantify the effect of water clarity on heating by comparing two simulations of a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of the Chesapeake Bay for the years 2001–2005, in which (1) water clarity is constant in space and time for the computation of solar heating, compared to (2) a simulation where water clarity varies with modeled concentrations of light-attenuating materials. In the variable water clarity simulation, the water is more opaque, particularly in the northern region of the Bay. This decrease in water clarity reduces the total heat, phytoplankton, and nitrate throughout the Bay. During the spring and summer months, surface temperatures in the northern Bay are warmer by 0.1 °C and bottom temperatures are colder by 0.2 °C in the variable light attenuation simulation. Warmer surface temperatures encourage phytoplankton growth and nutrient uptake near the head of the Bay, and fewer nutrients are transported downstream. These impacts are greater during higher river flow years, when differences in temperature, nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton extend further seaward compared to other years. This study demonstrates the consequences of utilizing different light calculations for estuarine heating and biogeochemistry.

water clarity↗
NASA NTRS2020

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

heat wave patterns↗
NASA NTRS2021

Variety in the Variability of Accreting Supermassive Binary Black Holes

Accreting supermassive binary black holes are key multi-messenger sources for LISA, yet are challenging to simulate realistically as solving the radiation magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations over the full dynamic spatio-temporal range of the problem is computationally infeasible at present. We will provide a brief summary of the the progress made in the field to understand these systems theoretically and what new directions groups are pursuing. We will also report on our collaboration's progress to simulate these systems using general relativistic MHD and dynamic GR. In order to cover a larger temporal range in one set of simulations, we constrain our view to the circumbinary disk region and measure how the binary mass ratio, accretion disk size, and black hole spin have on the structure and variability of the accretion flow. We particularly emphasize how these parameters influence the overdensity feature, which orbits the binary near the edge of the cavity, since it is responsible for most of the electromagnetic emission's variability and variability is a key signature of a system being a binary. Extending to smaller length scales, we will report on simulations following accretion all the down to the event horizons so that we can begin to investigate how black hole spin affects mini-disk dynamics, accretion rate, and jet power. The novel computational methods enabling inclusion of the black holes in the domain, including multi-patch methods, will be described.

Scott C Noble↗
NASA NTRS2020

Statistical Analysis of Factors Riving Surface Ozone Variability over Continental South Africa

Statistical relationships between surface ozone (O3) concentration, precursor species and meteorological conditions in continental South Africa were examined from data obtained from measurement stations in north-eastern South Africa. Three multivariate statistical methods were applied in the investigation, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component analysis (PCA) and –regression (PCR), and generalised additive model (GAM) analysis. The daily maximum 8-h moving average O3 concentrations were considered in these statistical models (dependent variable). MLR models indicated that meteorology and precursor species concentrations are able to explain ~50% of the variability in daily maximum O3 levels. MLR analysis revealed that atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO), temperature and relative humidity were the strongest factors affecting the daily O3 variability. In summer, daily O3 variances were mostly associated with relative humidity, while winter O3 levels were mostly linked to temperature and CO. PCA indicated that CO, temperature and relative humidity were not strongly collinear. GAM also identified CO, temperature and relative humidity as the strongest factors affecting the daily variation of O3. Partial residual plots found that temperature, radiation and nitrogen oxides most likely have a non-linear relationship with O3,while the relationship with relative humidity and CO is probably linear. An inter-comparison between O3 levels modelled with the three statistical models compared to measured O3 concentrations showed that the GAM model offered a slight improvement over the MLR model. These findings emphasise the critical role of regional-scale O3 precursors coupled with meteorological conditions in daily variances of O3 levels in continental South Africa.

multiple linear regression (MLR)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variability in Modelled Airborne Dust Mineralogy Derived from Global Soil Composition Uncertainties

Dust aerosols consist on a variety of minerals with different physic and chemical properties. As such, they interact with short and long wave radiation, potentially form clouds, act as nutrients modulating biogeochemical cycles, or influence atmospheric chemistry, differently. Most current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect the complexity in dust composition, mainly due to computational constraints, but also to the existing uncertainties in the size resolved composition of parent soils, the resulting distribution of minerals in airborne dust, and the scarcity of observations to constrain them. Within this work, we assess the variability of global dust composition due to uncertainties in the characterization of the parent soil mineralogy. To that end, we consider two available global soil mineralogy atlases, developed by Claquin et al. (1999) –C1999- and Journet et al. (2014) –J2014-, which represent respectively 8 and 12 relevant minerals for climate (namely: illite, smectite/montmorillonite, kaolinite, calcite, gypsum, hematite, quartz, and feldspars in C1999, and those plus chlorite, vermiculite, goethite, and mica in J2014). Thanks to a recently developed feature of the MONARCH atmospheric-chemistry model, we are able to explicitly resolve the minerals’ atmospheric cycle. Therefore, we define two global experiments to assess changes on airborne dust composition attributed to the soil mineralogy assumptions and provide a measure of their variability. We also perform a preliminary evaluation of the global mineralogy results against available observations of mineral fractions in surface dust concentration. Our results will inform the climate modelling community about the potential variability in dust composition, an aspect that will gain relevance as ESMs continue growing in complexity and new processes to better characterize aerosols’ forcing or biogeochemical cycles are added. Further observational constraints, such as those that will derive from the EMIT NASA mission on soil composition or the FRAGMENT experimental campaigns on airborne dust characterization, will be key in the near future to improve our understanding of the impact of dust mineralogy on fundamental climate features.

Dust aerosols↗