Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Perigaud, Claire↗
NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Assessment of Fracture Progression in Composite Structures

This report describes methods and corresponding computer codes that are used to evaluate progressive damage and fracture and to perform probabilistic assessment in built-up composite structures. Structural response is assessed probabilistically, during progressive fracture. The effects of design variable uncertainties on structural fracture progression are quantified. The fast probability integrator (FPI) is used to assess the response scatter in the composite structure at damage initiation. The sensitivity of the damage response to design variables is computed. The methods are general purpose and are applicable to stitched and unstitched composites in all types of structures and fracture processes starting from damage initiation to unstable propagation and to global structure collapse. The methods are demonstrated for a polymer matrix composite stiffened panel subjected to pressure. The results indicated that composite constituent properties, fabrication parameters, and respective uncertainties have a significant effect on structural durability and reliability. Design implications with regard to damage progression, damage tolerance, and reliability of composite structures are examined.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Effects of buoyancy on gas jet diffusion flames - Experiment and theory

Theoretical and experimental research on the effects of buoyancy on gas-jet diffusion flames is described. Part of this research involves an assessment of existing data obtained under reduced-gravity conditions. The results show that uncertainties in the current understanding of flame structure exist and further research is required before reliable predictions of ignition, stabilization, and propagation of flames under microgravity conditions can be made. Steady-state and transient theories have been developed and used in the analysis of existing drop-tower data and new data obtained from a stationary experiment involving inverted flames. The result of this research has led to the definition of a microgravity experiment to be performed in space.

Edelman, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Calibration of the COBE FIRAS instrument

The Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite was designed to accurately measure the spectrum of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) in the frequency range 1-95/cm with an angular resolution of 7 deg. We describe the calibration of this instrument, including the method of obtaining calibration data, reduction of data, the instrument model, fitting the model to the calibration data, and application of the resulting model solution to sky observations. The instrument model fits well for calibration data that resemble sky condition. The method of propagating detector noise through the calibration process to yield a covariance matrix of the calibrated sky data is described. The final uncertainties are variable both in frequency and position, but for a typical calibrated sky 2.6 deg square pixel and 0.7/cm spectral element the random detector noise limit is of order of a few times 10(exp -7) ergs/sq cm/s/sr cm for 2-20/cm, and the difference between the sky and the best-fit cosmic blackbody can be measured with a gain uncertainty of less than 3%.

Fixsen, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Correct Sense of Faraday Rotation

The phenomenon of Faraday rotation of linearly polarized synchrotron emission in a magneto-ionized medium has been understood and studied for decades. But since the sense of the rotation itself is irrelevant in most contexts, some uncertainty and inconsistencies have arisen in the literature about this detail. Here, we start from basic plasma theory to describe the propagation of polarized emission from a background radio source through a magnetized, ionized medium in order to rederive the correct sense of Faraday rotation. We present simple graphics to illustrate the decomposition of a linearly polarized wave into right and left circularly polarized modes, the temporal and spatial propagation of the phases of those modes, and the resulting physical rotation of the polarization orientation. We then re-examine the case of a medium that both Faraday-rotates and emits polarized radiation and show how a helical magnetic field can construct or destruct the Faraday rotation. This paper aims to resolve a source of confusion that has arisen between the plasma physics and radio astronomy communities and to help avoid common pitfalls when working with this unintuitive phenomenon.

ISM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of Electron Precipitation During 40 Energetic Electron Injections Inferred via Subionospheric VLF Signal Propagation

Energetic electron injection events are associated with energetic electron precipitation (EEP) through possible resonant wave-particle interactions. Previous studies confirm the impacts of injection-driven precipitation on observed amplitude/phase of subionospheric VLF (very low frequency) signals transmitted from distant artificial transmitters. Currently, there are substantial uncertainties on precipitation characteristics and flux during injection events. In this work we study 40 injection events selected by Van Allen Probes particle data to investigate the changes in amplitude and phase of VLF signals at ground receivers across Canada during particle injection events. We model the ionospheric effect of the EEP flux to find its impact on VLF propagation and characterize the injection events. Typically, we find a clear phase advance of ~40° in the received VLF signal at Fort Smith (Canada, L = 8) transmitted from U.S. Navy communication transmitter NAA at Maine (USA). Comparing to other VLF transmitter-receiver paths in North America leads us to conclude that effects are only seen on paths with adequately large range >>200 km) through L > 7. Modeling the VLF phase change indicates that in the majority of events (>90%), less than 10% of the strong scattering limit inferred from particle flux measurements at the Van Allen Probes is required to obtain the observed VLF phase signature. The median precipitating flux during energetic particle injections is less than 4 × 10 6 el/cm 2 s sr (<10% of the strong scattering rate) for electrons above ~40 keV extracted from trapped particles energy spectrum. This implies that strong scattering is not typical for these 40 selected energetic electron injection events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

How Certain are We of the Uncertainties in Recent Ozone Profile Trend Assessments of Merged Limbo Ccultation Records? Challenges and Possible Ways Forward

Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.

Merging Algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of the GAPS experiment to low-energy cosmic-ray antiprotons

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) is an upcoming balloon mission to measure low-energy cosmic-ray antinuclei during at least three ~35-day Antarctic flights. With its large geometric acceptance and novel exotic atom-based particle identification, GAPS will detect ~500 cosmic antiprotons per flight and produce a precision cosmic antiproton spectrum in the kinetic energy range of ~0.07–0.21 GeV/n at the top of the atmosphere. With these high statistics extending to lower energies than any previous experiment, and with complementary sources of experimental uncertainty compared to traditional magnetic spectrometers, the GAPS antiproton measurement will be sensitive to dark matter, primordial black holes, and cosmic ray propagation. The antiproton measurement will also validate the GAPS antinucleus identification technique for the antideuteron and antihelium rare-event searches. Finally, this analysis demonstrates the GAPS sensitivity to cosmic-ray antiprotons using a full instrument simulation and event reconstruction, and including solar and atmospheric effects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

J-85 jet engine noise measured in the ONERA S1 wind tunnel and extrapolated to far field

Noise from a J-85 turbojet with a conical, convergent nozzle was measured in simulated flight in the ONERA S1 Wind Tunnel. Data are presented for several flight speeds up to 130 m/sec and for radiation angles of 40 to 160 degrees relative to the upstream direction. The jet was operated with subsonic and sonic exhaust speeds. A moving microphone on a 2 m sideline was used to survey the radiated sound field in the acoustically treated, closed test section. The data were extrapolated to a 122 m sideline by means of a multiple-sideline source-location method, which was used to identify the acoustic source regions, directivity patterns, and near field effects. The source-location method is described along with its advantages and disadvantages. Results indicate that the effects of simulated flight on J-85 noise are significant. At the maximum forward speed of 130 m/sec, the peak overall sound levels in the aft quadrant were attentuated approximately 10 dB relative to sound levels of the engine operated statically. As expected, the simulated flight and static data tended to merge in the forward quadrant as the radiation angle approached 40 degrees. There is evidence that internal engine or shock noise was important in the forward quadrant. The data are compared with published predictions for flight effects on pure jet noise and internal engine noise. A new empirical prediction is presented that relates the variation of internally generated engine noise or broadband shock noise to forward speed. Measured near field noise extrapolated to far field agrees reasonably well with data from similar engines tested statically outdoors, in flyover, in a wind tunnel, and on the Bertin Aerotrain. Anomalies in the results for the forward quadrant and for angles above 140 degrees are discussed. The multiple-sideline method proved to be cumbersome in this application, and it did not resolve all of the uncertainties associated with measurements of jet noise close to the jet. The simulation was complicated by wind-tunnel background noise and the propagation of low frequency sound around the circuit.

Soderman, Paul T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Complete quantification of parametric uncertainties in ( d , p ) transfer reactions

Deuteron-induced transfer reactions are a popular probe in nuclear structure and nuclear astro physics studies. The interpretation of these transfer measurements relies on reaction theory that takes as input effective interactions between the nucleons and the target nucleus. Previous work quantified the uncertainty associated with the optical potentials between the nucleons and the target. In this study, we extend that work by also including the parameters of the mean field associated with the overlap function of the final bound state, thus obtaining the full parametric uncertainty on transfer observables. We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to obtain parameter posterior distributions. We use elastic-scattering cross sections to constrain the optical potential parameters and use the asymptotic normalization coefficient of the final state to constrain the bound state interaction. We then propagate these posteriors to the transfer angular distributions and obtain confidence intervals for this observable. We study (d,p) reactions on 14 C, 16 O, and 48 Ca at energies in the range $E$ $d$ = 7 - 24 MeV. Our results show a strong reduction in uncertainty by using the asymptotic normalization coefficient as a constraint, particularly for those reactions most sensitive to ambiguities in the mean field. For those reactions, the importance of constraining the bound state interaction is equal to that of constraining the optical potentials. Furthermore, the case of 14 C is an outlier because the cross section is less sensitive to the nuclear interior. When minimal constraints are used on the parameters of the nucleon-target interaction, the 1σ uncertainties on the differential cross sections are large (~ 500-100%). However, if elastic-scattering data and the asymptotic normalization coefficient are used in the analysis, with an error of 10% (5%), this uncertainty reduces to ~ 30% (~ 15%).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Minimization of Measurement Uncertainty in Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating optical fiber sensors to generate relative, quasi-distributed measurements. Although Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is increasingly being adopted for aerospace, energy production, and structural monitoring applications, the quantification of uncertainty for OFDR measurements has not been developed beyond sparse empirical relationships. To address this knowledge gap, an uncertainty metric for OFDR measurements was developed. This uncertainty metric was applied to weight the edges between OFDR measurements on directed correlation graphs and analyzed to minimize the cumulative uncertainty. In conclusion, this work is the first to propose an uncertainty metric for OFDR and provides a generalized mathematical framework for optimizing OFDR hardware selection, optical fiber sensor selection, and postprocessing strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observation of anomalous slow-mode shock and reconnection layer in the dayside magnetospause

Plasma and magnetic field data from the International Sun-Earth Explorer ISEE 2 spacecraft recorded during an outbound crossing of the dayside, northern hemisphere magnetopause in October 29, 1979, provide evidence for a slow shock (SS) in the observed reconnection layer. This layer is found to be bounded on the magnetosheath side by the SS; near the magnetospheric side of the layer, a second current sheet is found that may have been rotational discontinuity (RD). The direction of the accelerated plasma flow, the earthward sense of the normal magnetic filed across the SS and RD, and the relative orientation of the SS and the RD all indicate that the reconection site was located south of the spacecraft. Quantitative tests show that, allowing for experiemental uncertanties, data taken upstream and downstream of the SS are consistent with coplanarity and other Rankine-Hugoniot (RH) conditions. Examiniations of the flow parameters indicates two anomalous properties of the SS: the upstream flow, viewed in the deHoffmann-Teller frame, is superalfvenic and the downstream plasma is firehose unstable. In comparison to the long-wavelength slow-mode phase speed, however, the flow in the upstream region is super slow, while in the downstream region it is subslow, as requeired for a slow-mode shock. Further properties of the shock include a large decrease in total enthalpy across it, indicating the escape of a sizable heat flux from the shock structure, and the occurrence of a polarization reversal of the tangential magnetic field within the shock layer, a feature that is predicted by linear double-polytropic Hall-MHD and results from a large increase in pressure anistropy from the upstream region, where p(sub parallel) approximately equal to p(sub perp), to the downstream region, where p(sub parrallel) greater than p(sub perp). Quantitative tests of the RD-like discontinuity show that it satisfies the necessary RH conditions within experimental uncertainties and indicate that the flow across it is earthward, that is, it is the same as for the SS. Thus the RD is propagating behind the SS in the direction away from the Earth. The reversal in the order of the discontinuities is attributed to the reversal of the slow and intermediate phase speeds produced by the pressure anistropy in the region between the RD and the SS. The linear dispersion relation and polarization properties of dispersive MHD waves in an anisotropic plasma are examined in the appendix.

Walthour, D. W↗