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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic Atmospheric River Ensembles Generated by Deep-AR

This dataset contains 35,850 synthetic landfalling atmospheric river (AR) realizations generated by the Deep-AR two-stage deep-learning framework over the Northeast Pacific and U.S. West Coast. The archive contains 25 stochastic ensemble members for each of 1,434 held-out observed seed events. Each synthetic realization is initialized from conditions 48 hours before the corresponding observed AR landfall and is generated autoregressively at 6-hour intervals over a 144-hour period. Deep-AR combines a deterministic residual network (ResNet) that advances the large-scale atmospheric state with a Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN) that produces stochastic, high-resolution fields. Each HDF5 file contains 0.25° gridded synthetic integrated vapor transport components (qu, qv), 10 m wind components (u10, v10), and 6-hour accumulated precipitation on a common 200 × 480 grid. The files also include coordinate and datetime arrays. This dataset supports AR hazard analysis, ensemble-based uncertainty characterization, precipitation-extremes research, and regional stress testing. Synthetic files follow the naming convention deepar.model.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.vNN.h5. YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS identifies the UTC initial-condition timestamp, which occurs 48 hours before the diagnosed observed landfall, and vNN identifies the zero-padded ensemble member, ranging from v01 through v25. Each synthetic file can be paired with its corresponding observed file by matching the initial-condition timestamp. The paired observed file follows the naming convention deepar.obs.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.h5 and is available in the separately registered oracle/deepar.obs dataset at https://wdh.energy.gov/ds/oracle/deepar.obs (DOI: https://doi.org/10.21947/3377671).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ion Acoustic Wave Frequencies and Onset Times During Type 3 Solar Radio Bursts

Conflicting interpretations exist for the low-frequency ion acoustic (S) waves often observed by ISEE 3 in association with intense Langmuir (L) waves in the source regions of type III solar radio bursts near 1 AU. Two indirect lines of observational evidence, as well as plasma theory, suggest they are produced by the electrostatic (ES) decay L yields L(PRIME) + S. However, contrary to theoretical predictions, an existing analysis of the wave frequencies instead favors the electromagnetic (EM) decays L yields T + S, where T denotes an EM wave near the plasma frequency. This conflict is addressed here by comparing the observed wave frequencies and onset times with theoretical predictions for the ES and EM decays, calculated using the time-variable electron beam and magnetic field orientation data, rather than the nominal values used previously. Field orientation effects and beam speed variations are shown analytically to produce factor-of-three effects, greater than the difference in wave frequencies predicted for the ES and EM decays; effects of similar magnitude occur in the events analyzed here. The S-wave signals are extracted by hand from a sawtooth noise background, greatly improving the association between S waves and intense L waves. Very good agreement exists between the time-varying predictions for the ES decay and the frequencies of most (but not all) wave bursts. The waves occur only after the ES decay becomes kinematically allowed, which is consistent with the ES decay proceeding and producing most of the observed signals. Good agreement exists between the EM decay's predictions and a significant fraction of the S-wave observations while the EM decay is kinematically allowed. The wave data are not consistent, however, with the EM decay being the dominant nonlinear process. Often the observed waves are sufficiently broadband to overlap simultaneously the frequency ranges predicted for the ES and EM decays. Coupling the dominance of the ES decay with this frequency overlap provides support for a previous suggestion that fundamental emission occurs when the EM decay is stimulated by the ES decay product waves. The periods in which the ES and EM decays produce observable S waves are consistent with the observed and (independently) predicted times of fundamental and harmonic radio emission. This supports interpretation of fundamental emission as stimulated EM decay and harmonic emission as the coalescence L + L(prime) yields T of beam-generated L waves and L(prime) waves produced by the ES decay, where T denotes an electromagnetic wave at twice the plasma frequency. Analysis of the electron beam data reveals that the time-varying beam speed is consistent with ballistic beam propagation with minimal energy loss, implying that the beam propagates in a state close to time- and volume-averaged marginal stability. This confirms a central tenet of the stochastic growth theory for type III bursts.

Cairns, Iver H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

TOF-SIMS analysis of decoherence sources in superconducting qubits

Superconducting qubits have emerged as a potentially foundational platform technology for addressing complex computational problems deemed intractable with classical computing. Despite recent advances enabling multiqubit designs that exhibit coherence lifetimes on the order of hundreds of μs, material quality and interfacial structures continue to curb device performance. Two-level system defects in the thin superconducting film and adjacent dielectric regions introduce stochastic noise and dissipate electromagnetic energy at the cryogenic operating temperatures. In this study, we utilize time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry to understand the role specific fabrication procedures play in introducing such dissipation mechanisms in these complex systems. We interrogated Nb thin films and transmon qubit structures fabricated through slight modifications in the processing and vacuum conditions. We find that when the Nb film is sputtered onto the Si substrate, oxide and silicide regions are generated at various interfaces. We also observe that impurity species, such as niobium hydrides and carbides, are incorporated within the niobium layer during the subsequent lithographic patterning steps. The formation of these resistive compounds likely impacts the superconducting properties of the Nb thin film. Additionally, we observe the presence of halogen species distributed throughout the patterned thin films. We conclude by hypothesizing the source of such impurities in these structures in an effort to intelligently fabricate superconducting qubits and extend coherence times moving forward.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phenalenyl growth reactions and implications for prenucleation chemistry of aromatics in flames

The energetics and kinetics of phenalene and phenalenyl growth reactions were studied theoretically. Rate constants of phenalene and phenalenyl H-abstraction and C 2 H 2 addition to the formed radicals were evaluated through quantum-chemical and rate-theory calculations. The obtained values, assigned to all π radicals, were tested in deterministic and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of aromatics growth under conditions of laminar premixed flames. Kekulé and non-Kekulé structures of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) evolving in the stochastic simulations were identified by on-the-fly constrained optimization. The numerical results demonstrated an increased PAH growth and qualitatively reproduced experimental observations of Homann and co-workers of non-decaying PAH concentrations with nearly equal abundances of even and odd carbon-atom PAHs. The analysis revealed that the PAH growth proceeds via alternating and sterically diverse acetylene and methyl HACA additions. Furthermore, the rapid and diverse spreading in the PAH population supports a nucleation model as PAH dimerization, assisted by the non-equilibrium phenomena, forming planar aromatics first and then transitioning to the PAH–PAH stacking with size.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of Testing Methodologies for the Mechanical Properties of MEMS

This effort is to investigate and design testing strategies to determine the mechanical properties of MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) as well as investigate the development of a MEMS Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). One item of potential interest is the design of a test for the Weibull size effect in pressure membranes. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. However, the primary area of investigation will most likely be analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. This will be a continuation of the previous years work. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads.

Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2014

Overview of NASARTI (NASA Radiation Track Image) Program: Highlights of the Model Improvement and the New Results

This presentation summarizes several years of research done by the co-authors developing the NASARTI (NASA Radiation Track Image) program and supporting it with scientific data. The goal of the program is to support NASA mission to achieve a safe space travel for humans despite the perils of space radiation. The program focuses on selected topics in radiation biology that were deemed important throughout this period of time, both for the NASA human space flight program and to academic radiation research. Besides scientific support to develop strategies protecting humans against an exposure to deep space radiation during space missions, and understanding health effects from space radiation on astronauts, other important ramifications of the ionizing radiation were studied with the applicability to greater human needs: understanding the origins of cancer, the impact on human genome, and the application of computer technology to biological research addressing the health of general population. The models under NASARTI project include: the general properties of ionizing radiation, such as particular track structure, the effects of radiation on human DNA, visualization and the statistical properties of DSBs (DNA double-strand breaks), DNA damage and repair pathways models and cell phenotypes, chromosomal aberrations, microscopy data analysis and the application to human tissue damage and cancer models. The development of the GUI and the interactive website, as deliverables to NASA operations teams and tools for a broader research community, is discussed. Most recent findings in the area of chromosomal aberrations and the application of the stochastic track structure are also presented.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Gravitational Waves: Search Results, Data Analysis and Parameter Estimation. Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2

The Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2 on gravitational wave(GW) search results, data analysis and parameter estimation included three lively sessions of lectures by 13 presenters, and 34 posters. The talks and posters covered a huge range of material, including results and analysis techniques for ground-based GW detectors, targeting anticipated signals from different astrophysical sources: compact binary inspiral, merger and ringdown; GW bursts from intermediate mass binary black hole mergers, cosmic string cusps, core-collapse supernovae, and other unmodeled sources; continuous waves from spinning neutron stars; and a stochastic GW background. There was considerable emphasis on Bayesian techniques for estimating the parameters of coalescing compact binary systems from the gravitational waveforms extracted from the data from the advanced detector network. This included methods to distinguish deviations of the signals from what is expected in the context of General Relativity.

Tests of general relativity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Co-Optimization of Navigation System Requirements and Trajectory Design Using a Sweeping Gradient Method and Linear Covariance Analysis

We describe the application of a sweeping gradient method for ordinary differential equations with events (SGM) and linear covariance analysis (LinCov) to the co-optimization of navigation system requirement generation and robust trajectory design. SGM is a method for computing the gradient of trajectory analyses defined by performance indices over initial value problems with events with respect to static parameters. LinCov is an analytic technique for predicting stochastic behavior of dynamical systems. By combining SGM and LinCov, it is possible use efficient, off-the-shelf, gradient-based optimizers to solve a combined robust optimal trajectory and navigation system design problem. In this paper, we formulate the required models to apply the combined SGM and LinCov techniques to a Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit rendezvous approach scenario and show results for several intermediate problems.

Benjamin W L Margolis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modelling urban-scale occupant behaviour, mobility, and energy in buildings: A survey

The proliferation of urban sensing, IoT, and big data in cities provides unprecedented opportunities for a deeper understanding of occupant behaviour and energy usage patterns at the urban scale. This enables data-driven building and energy models to capture the urban dynamics, specifically the intrinsic occupant and energy use behavioural profiles that are not usually considered in traditional models. Although there are related reviews, none have investigated urban data for use in modelling occupant behaviour and energy use at multiple scales, from buildings to neighbourhood to city. This survey paper aims to fill this gap by providing a critical summary and analysis of the works reported in the literature. We present the different sources of occupant-centric urban data that are useful for data-driven modelling and categorise the range of applications and recent data-driven modelling techniques for urban behaviour and energy modelling, along with the traditional stochastic and simulation-based approaches. Finally, we present a set of recommendations for future directions in data-driven modelling of occupant behaviour and energy in buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing anisotropies of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background with LISA

Here, we investigate the sensitivity of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) to the anisotropies of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB). We first discuss the main astrophysical and cosmological sources of SGWB which are characterized by anisotropies in the GW energy density, and we build a Signal-to-Noise estimator to quantify the sensitivity of LISA to different multipoles. We then perform a Fisher matrix analysis of the prospects of detectability of anisotropic features with LISA for individual multipoles, focusing on a SGWB with a power-law frequency profile. We compute the noise angular spectrum taking into account the specific scan strategy of the LISA detector. We analyze the case of the kinematic dipole and quadrupole generated by Doppler boosting an isotropic SGWB. We find that β Ω GW ~ 2 × 10 -11 is required to observe a dipolar signal with LISA. The detector response to the quadrupole has a factor ~ 10 3 β relative to that of the dipole. The characterization of the anisotropies, both from a theoretical perspective and from a map-making point of view, allows us to extract information that can be used to understand the origin of the SGWB, and to discriminate among distinct superimposed SGWB sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Do interplanetary Alfven waves cause auroral activity?

A recent theory holds that high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) is caused by interplanetary Alfven waves propagating outward from the sun. A survey of Alfvenic intervals in over a year of ISEE 3 data shows that while Alfvenic intervals often accompany HILDCAAs, the reverse is often not true. There are many Alfvenic intervals during which auroral activity (measured by high values of the AE index) is very low, as well as times of high auroral activity that are not highly Alfvenic. This analysis supports the common conclusion that large AE values are associated with a southward interplanetary field of sufficient strength and duration. This field configuration is independent of the presence of Alfven waves (whether solar generated or not) and is expected to occur at random intervals in the large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in the solar wind.

Roberts, D. Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2024

Highly-detailed neutronic and thermal-hydraulic coupled calculations for OPAL reactor using diverse codes and approaches

The industry-standard approach for designing and operating research reactors cores relies on well-established methodologies that consider uncoupled neutronic calculations and a subchannel analysis of the Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) associated problem. Advancements in computing power and codes allow detailed Multiphysics approaches to be implemented, thereby reducing conservatism. In this study, a comparative analysis of results from diverse detailed neutronic-TH coupled core approaches is developed. To address a realistic application case, the comparison is made for a reported critical configuration from the Open Pool Australian Lightwater research reactor (OPAL) at Hot Full Power (HFP) and low burnup. Both cell-core and stochastic methodologies for neutronics are evaluated, whereas two different subchannel codes are considered for TH. In conclusion, the convergence of the coupled schemes, and the consistency of the main parameters are discussed, showing the compatibility of the alternative methods and their ability to offer critical insights not captured by standard practices.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of the polarization angle variability of the Crab Nebula with POLARBEAR and its application to the search for axionlike particles

The Crab Nebula, also known as Tau A, is a polarized astronomical source at millimeter wavelengths. It has been used as a stable light source for polarization angle calibration in millimeter-wave astronomy. However, it is known that its intensity and polarization vary as a function of time at a variety of wavelengths. Thus, it is of interest to verify the stability of the millimeter-wave polarization. If detected, polarization variability may be used to better understand the dynamics of Tau A, and for understanding the validity of Tau A as a calibrator. One intriguing application of such observation is to use it for the search of axionlike particles (ALPs). Ultralight ALPs couple to photons through a Chern-Simons term, and induce a temporal oscillation in the polarization angle of linearly polarized sources. After assessing a number of systematic errors and testing for internal consistency, we evaluate the variability of the polarization angle of the Crab Nebula using 2015 and 2016 observations with the 150 GHz P instrument. We place a median 95% upper bound of polarization oscillation amplitude A < 0.06 5 ° over the oscillation frequencies from 0.75 year − 1 to 0.66 hour − 1 . Assuming that no sources other than ALP are causing Tau A’s polarization angle variation, that the ALP constitutes all the dark matter, and that the ALP field is a stochastic Gaussian field, this bound translates into a median 95% upper bound of ALP-photon coupling g a γ γ < 2.16 × 10 − 12 GeV − 1 × ( m a / 10 − 21 eV ) in the mass range from 9.9 × 10 − 23 eV to 7.7 × 10 − 19 eV . This demonstrates that this type of analysis using bright polarized sources is as competitive as those using the polarization of cosmic microwave background in constraining ALPs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, Shunsuke (ORCID:0000000204007555)↗
DOE OSTI2024

All about the neutron from lattice QCD

I describe how simulations of lattice QCD using the path integral formulation provide the two basic quantum mechanical properties of QCD, its ground state in which correlation functions are calculated, and Fock state wavefunctions between which matrix elements of operators are calculated. Both constructs are stochastic, so unfortunately one gets no intuitive picture or even qualitative understanding of what they look like, nevertheless they contain and display all the subtleties of the quantum field theory. Today, these simulations provide many quantities that are impacting phenomenology and experiments. I illustrate the methods and the steps in the analysis using, as examples, three observables: the isovector charges of the nucleon, the contribution of the quark’s intrinsic spin to the nucleon spin, and the pion-nucleon sigma term.

Gupta, Rajan (ORCID:0000000317843058)↗
NASA NTRS1976

The scattering of obliquely incident plane waves from a corrugated conducting surface

A physical optics solution is presented for the scattering of plane waves from a perfectly conducting corrugated surface in the case of waves incident from an arbitrary direction and for an observer far from the surface. This solution is used to compute the radar cross section of the surface in the case of backscatter from irregular (i.e., stochastic) corrugations. An interesting feature of the solution is the occurrence of singularities in the scattered fields. These singularities appear to be a manifestation of focusing by the surface at its 'stationary' points. Whether or not the singularities occur in the solution depends on the manner in which one restricts the analysis to the far-field.

Surface waves↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ionospheric gravity wave measurements with the USU dynasonde

A method for the measurement of ionospheric Gravity Wave (GW) using the USU Dynasonde is outlined. This method consists of a series of individual procedures, which includes functions for data acquisition, adaptive scaling, polarization discrimination, interpolation and extrapolation, digital filtering, windowing, spectrum analysis, GW detection, and graphics display. Concepts of system theory are applied to treat the ionosphere as a system. An adaptive ionogram scaling method was developed for automatically extracting ionogram echo traces from noisy raw sounding data. The method uses the well known Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm to form a stochastic optimal estimate of the echo trace which is then used to control a moving window. The window tracks the echo trace, simultaneously eliminating the noise and interference. Experimental results show that the proposed method functions as designed. Case studies which extract GW from ionosonde measurements were carried out using the techniques described. Geophysically significant events were detected and the resultant processed results are illustrated graphically. This method was also developed for real time implementation in mind.

Berkey, Frank T.↗