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Capabilities and constraints of combustion diagnostics in microgravity

A significant scientific return from both existing and proposed microgravity combustion science experiments is substantially dependent on the availability of diagnostic systems for the collection of the required scientific data. To date, the available diagnostic instrumentation has consisted primarily of conventional photographic media and intrusive temperature and velocity probes, such as thermocouples and hot wire anemometers. This situation has arisen primarily due to the unique and severe operational constraints inherent in reduced gravity experimentation. Each of the various reduced gravity facilities is accompanied by its own peculiar envelope of capabilities and constraints. Drop towers, for example, pose strict limitations on available working volume and power, as well as autonomy of operation. In contrast, hardware developed for space flight applications can be somewhat less constrained in regards to the aforementioned quantities, but is additionally concerned with numerous issues involving safety and reliability.

Greenberg, Paul S.↗

Satellite Sampling and Retrieval Errors in Regional Monthly Rain Estimates from TMI AMSR-E, SSM/I, AMSU-B and the TRMM PR

Passive and active microwave rain sensors onboard earth-orbiting satellites estimate monthly rainfall from the instantaneous rain statistics collected during satellite overpasses. It is well known that climate-scale rain estimates from meteorological satellites incur sampling errors resulting from the process of discrete temporal sampling and statistical averaging. Sampling and retrieval errors ultimately become entangled in the estimation of the mean monthly rain rate. The sampling component of the error budget effectively introduces statistical noise into climate-scale rain estimates that obscure the error component associated with the instantaneous rain retrieval. Estimating the accuracy of the retrievals on monthly scales therefore necessitates a decomposition of the total error budget into sampling and retrieval error quantities. This paper presents results from a statistical evaluation of the sampling and retrieval errors for five different space-borne rain sensors on board nine orbiting satellites. Using an error decomposition methodology developed by one of the authors, sampling and retrieval errors were estimated at 0.25 resolution within 150 km of ground-based weather radars located at Kwajalein, Marshall Islands and Melbourne, Florida. Error and bias statistics were calculated according to the land, ocean and coast classifications of the surface terrain mask developed for the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) rain algorithm. Variations in the comparative error statistics are attributed to various factors related to differences in the swath geometry of each rain sensor, the orbital and instrument characteristics of the satellite and the regional climatology. The most significant result from this study found that each of the satellites incurred negative longterm oceanic retrieval biases of 10 to 30%.

Fisher, Brad↗

Modeling and simulation of a turbulent far wake

Work continued on two projects which had been started during previous years. Both projects involve calculations of the subsonic, turbulent far wake of a two-dimensional object at a Reynolds number of 1000 (based on wake momentum thickness). This flow was used as a test case for direct comparison of various turbulence models and a direct numerical simulations (DNS) of this flow were undertaken. In the turbulence model comparison studies, for any particular model tested, a unique self-similar solution was obtained far enough downstream, regardless of inlet conditions. Furthermore, different turbulence models led to different far-wake equilibrium solutions. No turbulence model could correctly predict all features of the turbulent far wake. For example, the spreading rate and turbulent shear stresses were underpredicted by all the standard models (both two-equation and full Reynolds stress models). In cases where a more correct spreading rate was achieved, it was at the expense of the turbulent kinetic energy, which was overpredicted. In general, the Algebraic Dissipation Rate Model of Gatski and Speziale, 1992, when added to any of the standard models, improved the results dramatically. Also, full Reynolds stress closure models did a much better job at predicting the shapes of both the mean and turbulence profiles, but the spreading rate was not significantly improved over that predicted by the simpler two-equation models. There are two main conclusions from these studies: First, in a comparison such as this, it is not enough to compare just one parameter, like the spreading rate. A good prediction for one parameter does not necessarily imply good predictions for all parameters in a flow. Second, since no turbulence model could correctly predict the turbulent far wake, much of the important physics of turbulent free shear flows is apparently lost by the assumptions inherent in today's methods of turbulence modeling; turbulence models must be improved. Direct simulations of this flow were begun last year in order to provide a data base through which some of the deficiencies of the existing turbulence models could be identified. Quantities such as the pressure-strain correlation, turbulent diffusion, and the dissipation rate tensor can be easily calculated from the DNS results, whereas these quantities are nearly impossible to measure experimentally. Improvements to existing turbulence models (and development of new models) require knowledge about flow quantities such as these. During this summer, diagnostics codes were written which will calculate the parameters mentioned above, along with other single-point and multi-point statistics. The DNS calculations are still in progress at the time of this writing. When these calculations are complete, the diagnostics codes will be applied so that the results can aid turbulence modelers. In addition, the results will show whether or not there exists a universal equilibrium turbulent far wake, independent of initial conditions.

Cimbala, John M.↗

Unsteady Flowfield Around Tandem Cylinders as Prototype for Component Interaction in Airframe Noise

Synergistic application of experiments and numerical simulations is crucial to understanding the underlying physics of airframe noise sources. The current effort is aimed at characterizing the details of the flow interaction between two cylinders in a tandem configuration. This setup is viewed to be representative of several component-level flow interactions that occur when air flows over the main landing gear of large civil transports. Interactions of this type are likely to have a significant impact on the noise radiation associated with the aircraft undercarriage. The paper is focused on two-dimensional, time-accurate flow simulations for the tandem cylinder configuration. Results of the unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) computations with a two-equation turbulence model, at a Reynolds number of 0.166 million and a Mach number of 0.166, are presented. The experimental measurements of the same flow field are discussed in a separate paper by Jenkins, Khorrami, Choudhari, and McGinley (2005). Two distinct flow regimes of interest, associated with short and intermediate separation distances between the two cylinders, are considered. Emphasis is placed on understanding both time averaged and unsteady flow features between the two cylinders and in the wake of the rear cylinder. Predicted mean flow quantities and vortex shedding frequencies show reasonable agreement with the measured data for both cylinder spacings. Computations for short separation distance indicate decay of flow unsteadiness with time, which is not unphysical; however, the predicted sensitivity of mean lift coefficient to small angles of attack explains the asymmetric flowfield observed during the experiments.

Khorrami, Meldi R.↗

Derivation of Capabilities and Resources for Treating Medical Conditions in Deep Space

BACKGROUND: Medical care in spaceflight requires the adaptation of terrestrial standards to the constraints of the space environment. However, there is often conflict between the ideal resources required for treatment and diagnosis of a medical condition, and the constraints on their mass, volume, data needs, etc. This optimization of trades between medical risk and resources will be a significant challenge for deep space medical system design. METHODS: A team of physicians with a broad range of expertise reviewed the 120 medical conditions on the condition list for NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via analysis of Complex Tradespaces Medical Database (IMPACT-MD). Each team member was assigned a subset of conditions based on their experience and training. The assigned physician generated a proposed list of capabilities, definitions, and resources required to treat each condition based on terrestrial practice guidelines, medical literature, and subject matter expertise. Additional specialists were consulted for conditions where expertise was not present within the main group. The proposed list was then reviewed by the broader team and modified as needed to achieve consensus. Each capability and resource was then assigned parameters to define quantity required per medical event, necessity, training level required, and primacy order of any alternative resources. These capabilities and resources were placed into condition specific tables and delivered to a team of engineers who added mass and volume data for each specific resource and converted the table into a database for use as input to a computational model to simulate spaceflight (IMPACT) DISCUSSION: This process ensures that a minimum of three subject matter experts review and agree upon the scope of practice, medical diagnostic tools, and treatment modalities that would be necessary to address emergent and non-emergent conditions that may arise during spaceflight to inform requirements during the vehicle design phase. The method is scalable to any design reference mission and permits modification of the existing database as information, conditions or experience are added. By including specialists, generalists, and those with subject matter expertise in the spaceflight environment on the team, we ensure that the included capabilities represent a realistic and actionable foundation for planning deep space missions.

D R Levin↗

Potential of derived lunar volatiles for life support

The lunar regolith contains small quantities of solar wind implanted volatile compounds that have vital, basic uses for maintaining life support systems of lunar or space settlements. Recent proposals to utilize the helium-3 isotope (He-3) derived from the lunar regolith as a fuel for fusion reactors would result in the availability of large quantities of other lunar volatile compounds. The quantities obtained would provide the annual life support replacement requirements of 1150 to 23,000 inhabitants per ton of He-3 recovered, depending on the volatile compound. Utilization of the lunar volatile compounds for life support depends on the costs, in terms of materials and energy, associated with their extraction from the lunar regolith as compared to the delivery costs of these compounds from Earth resources. Considering today's conservative estimated transportation costs ($10,000 dollars per kilogram) and regolith mining costs ($5 dollars per ton), the life support replacement requirements could be more economically supplied by recovering the lunar volatile compounds than transporting these materials from Earth resources, even before He-3 will be utilized as a fusion fuel. In addition, availability of lunar volatile compounds could have a significant cost impact on maintaining the life support systems of the space station and a Mars base.

Bula, R. J.↗

Supplier's Status for Critical Solid Propellants, Explosive, and Pyrotechnic Ingredients

In the early 1970's a program was initiated at the Naval Surface Warfare Center/Indian Head Division (NSWC/IHDIV) to address the well-known problems associated with availability and suppliers of critical ingredients. These critical ingredients are necessary for preparation of solid propellants and explosives manufactured by the Navy. The objective of the program was to identify primary and secondary (or back-up) vendor information for these critical ingredients, and to develop suitable alternative materials if an ingredient is unavailable. In 1992 NSWC/IHDIV funded Chemical Propulsion Information Agency (CPIA) under a Technical Area Task (TAT) to expedite the task of creating a database listing critical ingredients used to manufacture Navy propellant and explosives based on known formulation quantities. Under this task CPIA provided employees that were 100 percent dedicated to the task of obtaining critical ingredient suppliers information, selecting the software and designing the interface between the computer program and the database users. TAT objectives included creating the Explosive Ingredients Source Database (EISD) for Propellant, Explosive and Pyrotechnic (PEP) critical elements. The goal was to create a readily accessible database, to provide users a quick-view summary of critical ingredient supplier's information and create a centralized archive that CPIA would update and distribute. EISD funding ended in 1996. At that time, the database entries included 53 formulations and 108 critical used to manufacture Navy propellant and explosives. CPIA turned the database tasking back over to NSWC/IHDIV to maintain and distribute at their discretion. Due to significant interest in propellant/explosives critical ingredients suppliers' status, the Propellant Development and Characterization Subcommittee (PDCS) approached the JANNAF Executive committee (EC) for authorization to continue the critical ingredient database work. In 1999, JANNAF EC approved the PDCS panel task. This paper is designed to emphasize the necessity of maintaining a JANNAF community supported database, which monitors PEP critical ingredient suppliers' status. The final product of this task is a user friendly, searchable database that provides a quick-view summary of critical ingredient supplier's information. This database must be designed to serve the needs of JANNAF and the propellant and energetic commercial manufacturing community as well. This paper provides a summary of the type of information to archive each critical ingredient.

Sims, B. L.↗

Experimental Partitioning of Cr(3+) and Sc(3+) into Olivine: Mechanisms and Implications

Olivine (Mg, Fe)Si2O4 does not, by stoichiometry, accept cations such as Sc(3+) or Cr(3+). However, the partition coefficients of Sc and Cr between olivine and liquid are significant 0.2-1.0. We have measured Cr(3+) partition coefficients of near unity and have grown olivines with nearly 3 wt.% Sc2O3. Therefore, there must be a simple means of charge balancing 3+ ions in a crystal structure that was obviously not designed to receive other than 2+ ions on the olivine M sites. The simplest explanation is that two 3+ ions enter the olivine structure by displacing three 2+ ions and creating an M site vacancy. Even this explanation has difficulties. For minor elements in our experiments (~1 wt.%) the odds of a minor element 3+ ion finding a second 3+ for charge balance are of the order of 100:1 against. Because of the reducing conditions of our experiments, Fe(3+) will not suffice; and Al(3+) is not in sufficient quantity in olivine for charge balance. Therefore, Cr or Sc must, in effect, charge balance itself. For true trace elements, the problem is compounded many times. For an ion at the 10 ppm level the chances of finding a second (for example) Sc ion is approx.10(exp 5):1 against. Of course, any other 3+ ion would suffice but comparisons between percent level doping experiments and trace level partitioning indicate that Henry s law is obeyed. This implies that the same substitution mechanism occurs at both the percent and tens of ppm levels. There are two simple solutions to this problem: (i) The electrical conductivity of olivine is such that charge balance need not be local. This requires substantial domains within the olivine crystal in electrical contact by migration of vacancies or electronic defects. (ii) The 3+ cation brings along its own charge-balancing ion because it existed as a dimer in the silicate liquid. Olivine is not a true insulator but is actually a p-type semiconductor. Even so, electrical communication by this means is unlikely over the tens or hundreds of unit cells that would be required for charge balance to be local. Therefore, we cautiously favor the idea that melt speciation is the means by which 3+ ions enter the olivine structure. Possibly this model might be tested by in situ XAFS measurements or by molecular dynamical calculations.

Jones, John↗

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗

Correlation of boundary layer quantities for hypersonic laminar flows with zero pressure gradient for several gases

The laminar boundary layer has been theoretically studied for six gases for flows over cold walls with zero pressure gradient at Mach numbers between 5.5 and 12.5 to correlate boundary layer quantities for the various gases. The flow conditions considered correspond to those that can be generated in test facilities such as the shock tunnel and the expansion tube. Computed results obtained using real gas properties indicate that the Eckert number based on edge conditions serves to correlate the results in terms of the wall shear stress and enthalpy gradient, the Stanton number, and the momentum thickness for the various gases within plus or minus 10 per cent for Te = Tw and Te approximately 3Tw. Computed Reynolds analogy factors exhibit very good agreement with those predicted by the Colburn analogy. Velocity and displacement thicknesses correlate well with Eckert number for Te = Tw, but fail to correlate for Te approximately 3Tw. Differences in results are traced to property variations. Results show that the Eckert number is a significant correlating variable for the flows considered.

Cook, W. J.↗

Gravity model improvement using the DORIS tracking system on the SPOT 2 satellite

A high-precision radiometric satellite tracking system, Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite system (DORIS), has recently been developed by the French space agency, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). DORIS was designed to provide tracking support for missions such as the joint United States/French TOPEX/Poseidon. As part of the flight testing process, a DORIS package was flown on the French SPOT 2 satellite. A substantial quantity of geodetic quality tracking data was obtained on SPOT 2 from an extensive international DORIS tracking network. These data were analyzed to assess their accuracy and to evaluate the gravitational modeling enhancements provided by these data in combination with the Goddard Earth Model-T3 (GEM-T3) gravitational model. These observations have noise levels of 0.4 to 0.5 mm/s, with few residual systematic effects. Although the SPOT 2 satellite experiences high atmospheric drag forces, the precision and global coverage of the DORIS tracking data have enabled more extensive orbit parameterization to mitigate these effects. As a result, the SPOT 2 orbital errors have been reduced to an estimated radial accuracy in the 10-20 cm RMS range. The addition of these data, which encompass many regions heretofore lacking in precision satellite tracking, has significantly improved GEM-T3 and allowed greatly improved orbit accuracies for Sun-synchronous satellites like SPOT 2 (such as ERS 1 and EOS). Comparison of the ensuing gravity model with other contemporary fields (GRIM-4C2, TEG2B, and OSU91A) provides a means to assess the current state of knowledge of the Earth's gravity field. Thus, the DORIS experiment on SPOT 2 has provided a strong basis for evaluating this new orbit tracking technology and has demonstrated the important contribution of the DORIS network to the success of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission.

Nerem, R. S.↗

How Accurate is Land/Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses?

Quantifying the global hydrological cycle and its variability across various time scales remains a challenge to the climate community. Direct measurements of evaporation (E), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation (P) are not feasible on a global scale, nor is the transport of water vapor over the global oceans and sparsely populated land areas. Expanding satellite data streams have enabled development of various water (and energy) flux products, complementing reanalyses and facilitating observationally constrained modeling. But the evolution of the global observing system has produced additional complications--improvements in satellite sensor resolution and accuracy have resulted in "epochs" of observational quasi-uniformity that can adversely affect reanalysis trends. In this work we focus on vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VMFC) variations within the period 1979 - present integrated over global land. We show that VMFC in recent reanalyses (e.g. ERA-I, NASA MERRA, NOAA CFSR and JRA55) suffers from observing system changes, though differently in each product. Land Surface Models (LSMs) forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology share closely the interannual P-ET variations of the reanalyses associated with ENSO events. (VMFC over land and P-ET estimates are equivalent quantities since atmospheric storage changes are small on these scales.) But the long-term LSM trend over the period since 1979 is approximately one-fourth that of the reanalyses. Additional reduced observation reanalyses assimilating only surface pressure and /or specifying seasurface temperature also have a much smaller trend in P-ET like the LSMs. We explore the regional manifestation of the reanalysis P-ET / VMFC problems, particularly over land. Both principal component analysis and a simple time series changepoint analysis highlight problems associated with data poor regions such as Equatorial Africa and, for one reanalysis, the Equatorial Andes region. Onset of the availability of passive microwave Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) moisture data in July 1987 and the transition from the Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) to an advanced version (AMSU) have significant impacts on VMFC variability. Simple accounting for these errors of leading importance results in modified reanalysis VMFC estimates that agree much better with the LSM results. Regional details of the modified reanalysis VMFC and LSM P-ET are related to changes in Pacific Decadal Variability as manifest in SST changes after the late 1990s.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Zhang, Yuanchong↗

Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

Tinus, R. W.↗

Automated Propulsion Data Screening demonstration system

A fully-instrumented firing of a propulsion system typically generates a very large quantity of data. In the case of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), data analysis from ground tests and flights is currently a labor-intensive process. Human experts spend a great deal of time examining the large volume of sensor data generated by each engine firing. These experts look for any anomalies in the data which might indicate engine conditions warranting further investigation. The contract effort was to develop a 'first-cut' screening system for application to SSME engine firings that would identify the relatively small volume of data which is unusual or anomalous in some way. With such a system, limited and expensive human resources could focus on this small volume of unusual data for thorough analysis. The overall project objective was to develop a fully operational Automated Propulsion Data Screening (APDS) system with the capability of detecting significant trends and anomalies in transient and steady-state data. However, the effort limited screening of transient data to ground test data for throttle-down cases typical of the 3-g acceleration, and for engine throttling required to reach the maximum dynamic pressure limits imposed on the Space Shuttle. This APDS is based on neural networks designed to detect anomalies in propulsion system data that are not part of the data used for neural network training. The delivered system allows engineers to build their own screening sets for application to completed or planned firings of the SSME. ERC developers also built some generic screening sets that NASA engineers could apply immediately to their data analysis efforts.

Hoyt, W. Andes↗

Suppression of Active-Region CME Production by the Presence of Other Active Regions

From the SOHO mission s data base of MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning solar cycle 23, we have obtained a set of ~40,000 magnetograms of ~1,300 active regions, tracking each active region across the 30 degree central solar disk. Each active region magnetogram is cropped from the full-disk magnetogram by an automated code. The cadence is 96 minutes. From each active-region magnetogram, we have measured two whole-active-region magnetic quantities: (1) the magnetic size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux), and (2) a gauge of the active region s free magnetic energy (part of the free energy is released in the production of a flare and/or CME eruption). From NOAA Flare/CME catalogs, we have obtained the event (Flare/CME/SEP event) production history of each active region. Using all these data, we find that for each type of eruptive event, an active region s expected rate of event production increases as a power law of our gauge of active-region free magnetic energy. We have also found that, among active regions having nearly the same free energy, the rate of the CME production is less when there are many other active regions on the disk than when there are few or none, but there is no significant discernible suppression of the rate of flare production. This indicates that the presence of other active regions somehow tends to inhibit an active region s flare-producing magnetic explosions from becoming CMEs, contrary to the expectation from the breakout model for the production of CMEs.

Falconer, David↗

Re-Computation of Numerical Results Contained in NACA Report No. 496

An extensive examination of NACA Report No. 496 (NACA 496), "General Theory of Aerodynamic Instability and the Mechanism of Flutter," by Theodore Theodorsen, is described. The examination included checking equations and solution methods and re‐computing interim quantities and all numerical examples in NACA 496. The checks revealed that NACA 496 contains computational shortcuts (time‐ and effort‐saving devices for engineers of the time) and clever artifices (employed in its solution methods), but, unfortunately, also contains numerous tripping points (aspects of NACA 496 that have the potential to cause confusion) and some errors. The re‐computations were performed employing the methods and procedures described in NACA 496, but using modern computational tools. With some exceptions, the magnitudes and trends of the original results were in fair‐to‐very‐good agreement with the re‐computed results. The exceptions included what are speculated to be computational errors in the original in some instances and transcription errors in the original in others. Independent flutter calculations were performed and, in all cases, including those where the original and re‐computed results differed significantly, were in excellent agreement with the re‐computed results. Appendix A contains NACA 496; Appendix B contains a Matlab(Reistered) program that performs the re‐computation of results; Appendix C presents three alternate solution methods, with examples, for the two‐degree‐of-freedom solution method of NACA 496; Appendix D contains the three‐degree‐of‐freedom solution method (outlined in NACA 496 but never implemented), with examples.

Perry, Boyd, III↗

Solar concentrator degradation in Low Earth Orbit (LEO)

The use of parabolically or spherically-shaped mirrors is being considered in order to increase the solar energy intensity on solar cells. Their use will significantly decrease the size and number of the cells needed for a particular application, hence the total array cost. Questions arise, however, regarding the long-term (five to ten years) efficiency of these devices. Performance degradation of the mirror surfaces might result from known hostile elements in the low earth orbit (LEO) environment (150-350 nautical miles). The degradation issue is addressed in light of present knowledge of this environment. The following characteristics of the LEO environment are identified for study: (1) the vacuum of space; (2) sputtering by the residual atoms and particles in space; (3) solar electromagnetic radiation; (4) contamination of the mirror surface; (5) atomic oxygen interactions with the surface; (6) bombardment of the surface by meteoroids; and (7) irradiation of the surface by ionizing particles (protons). Using the best available information for the magnitudes of the necessary quantities, a mathematical analysis was carried out, where possible, to determine the degradation in reflectance or other loss caused by each characteristic. Otherwise, reasonable estimates are made of corresponding losses, based on already published data.

Thomas, R. G.↗