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At least 757 records · Page 42

Failure prediction and estimation of failure parameters

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine frictional state or other parameters in an earthquake zone or other failing medium, using acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes. Predictions of future failures are demonstrated in different regimes. A classifier is trained using time series of acoustic emission data along with historic data of frictional state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and gradient boost trees are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to testing or live data in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, or make predictions regarding a future failure event. The technology has been developed in a double direct shear apparatus, but can be widely applied to seismic faults, other terrestrial failures, or failures in man-made structures. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗

Detecting an underground tunnel by applying joint traveltime and waveform inversion

Underground tunnel and void detection is a challenging geophysical problem, and many methods have been proposed. Seismic techniques are promising because of the large seismic velocity contrasts between the air-filled void and the surrounding sediment and concrete. We apply a joint seismic traveltime and waveform inversion method to image a buried tunnel with concrete walls and a void space inside. The joint inversion images the top of the concrete tunnel as a high-velocity anomaly and the void space as a low-velocity anomaly. The location of the velocity anomalies predicted by the method agrees with the known location of the tunnel. As a comparison, the stand-alone full waveform inversion is also applied to the data. The first-arrival traveltime tomography shows weak nonlinearity but fails to image the hidden low-velocity layer. Full waveform inversion is able to image complex near-surface structures, but fitting waveforms may not honor the traveltime fit, especially when the data contain noise. Synthetic and real data tests show that the joint inversion method retains the advantages of both traveltime inversion and full waveform inversion and overcomes their respective drawbacks at the same time. The field example shows the joint inversion provides a better reconstruction of the high-velocity feature representing the top of the concrete wall in terms of its magnitude and location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Backus-Gilbert inversion of travel time data

Application of the Backus-Gilbert theory for geophysical inverse problems to the seismic body wave travel-time problem is described. In particular, it is shown how to generate earth models that fit travel-time data to within one standard error and having generated such models how to describe their degree of uniqueness. An example is given to illustrate the process.

Johnson, L. E.↗

Journey to Time-Variable Moment Tensors through Inversion of Acoustic and Seismoacoustic Data

We explore the capability of acoustic and seismoacoustic datasets to directly resolve a complex, time-variable source consisting of a buried mechanism, represented as a moment tensor, and a spall mechanism, represented as a vertical force at the surface. Traditionally, each component of a resolved moment tensor assumes one underlying source time function, which likely fails to capture the full evolution of a dynamic source, such as an explosion followed by slip on near-source joints or development of spallation. Specifically, we expand previous work to resolve a time-variable moment tensor using single-modality and joint-modality inversion frameworks through analysis of infrasound and seismoacoustic data recorded as part of the Source Physics Experiment Phase II: Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG). We investigate the impact of including signals from seismic-to-air coupling that are local to each infrasound sensor in comparison to mainly atmosphere-propagating acoustic signals, which occur from coupling of the wavefield from the subsurface to the atmosphere directly above the source. Additionally, we assess the ability of our inversion algorithm to fit observed infrasound data using a variety of time-variable source mechanisms. First, we consider the buried moment tensor source alone, which assumes that the determined Green’s functions incorporate effects from spallation or that the impact from spallation is minimal. Second, we examine the estimated buried moment tensor and vertical surface spallation as terms that must both be resolved in the inversion. Third, we assess the ability for an estimated vertical surface spallation source to fit the acoustic data on its own. Finally, we compare results from the joint inversion of both seismic geophone and infrasound acoustic data for the buried-only source compared to buried and spallation sources. Our results are a preliminary investigation into the applications of the inversion technique to recorded datasets and show the technique has limited capabilities using acoustic data alone. Instead, this method shows promise for seismic and seismoacoustic datasets to resolve the time-variable mechanisms of a buried source.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Data User's Note: Apollo seismological investigations

Seismological objectives and equipment used in the passive seismic, active seismic, lunar seismic profiling, and the lunar gravimeter experiments conducted during Apollo 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17 missions are described. The various formats in which the data form these investigations can be obtained are listed an an index showing the NSSDC identification number is provided. Tables show manned lunar landing missions, lunar seismic network statistics, lunar impact coordinate statistics, detonation masses and times of EP's, the ALSEP (Apollo 14) operational history; compressed scale playout tape availability, LSPE coverage for one lunation, and experimenter interpreted events types.

Vostreys, R. W.↗

Utah FORGE Friction-Permeability-Seismicity Laboratory Experiments with Non-Linear Acoustics

Laboratory experimental data on saw-cut interface of Westerly Granite and Utah Forge granitoid rocks. Experiments include velocity-stepping and fluid pressure stepping experiments. Mechanical data from 3 ISCO pumps connected to a Temco pressure vessel measure axial, confining and fault: fluid pressure (kPa), fluid flow rate (mL/min) and volume remaining in pump (mL). Non-linear acoustic data acquired via Verasonics systems connected to PZTs inside the pressure vessel give the timeshift, amplitude and RMS amplitude of the passing P-wave.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE: Wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 Stimulation Program Report - May 2024

This dataset consists of a comprehensive report documenting the stimulation program conducted in May 2024 on Utah FORGE wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32. It includes detailed accounts of operational and scientific objectives, stimulation methodologies, and testing outcomes. The report describes the hydraulic fracturing activities, equipment setups, proppant and fluid usage, and the execution of a nine-hour circulation test. It also includes observations from seismic and fiber optic monitoring systems, providing data on microseismic activity and fracture propagation. Detailed parameters for each stimulation stage are provided, alongside operational challenges and solutions. The dataset includes analyses of injection and production rates, well temperatures, and pressure data, supported by graphical illustrations and logs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A major crustal feature in the southeastern United States inferred from the MAGSAT equivalent source anomaly field

The MAGSAT equivalent-source anomaly field evaluated at 325 km altitude depicts a prominent anomaly centered over southeast Georgia, which is adjacent to the high-amplitude positive Kentucky anomaly. To overcome the satellite resolution constraint in studying this anomaly, conventional geophysical data were included in analysis: Bouguer gravity, seismic reflection and refraction, aeromagnetic, and in-situ stress-strain measurements. This integrated geophysical approach, infers more specifically the nature and extent of the crustal and/or lithospheric source of the Georgia MAGSAT anomaly. Physical properties and tectonic evolution of the area are all important in the interpretation.

Ruder, M. E.↗

Report on the recovery of legacy 1997-1998 Depth-of-Burial / Tunnel-and-Hole-Closure explosion data from the Kazakhstan former Soviet nuclear test site, Semipalatinsk.

In 1996, negotiations between the National Nuclear Center of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NNC), the U.S. Defense Special Weapons Administration (DSWA) and the U.S. Department of Energy led to an agreement for a joint series of experiments at the former Soviet nuclear test site Semipalatinsk (STS). These experiments had a dual purpose: to close holes and tunnels originally created for the purpose of testing nuclear weapons, and to characterize explosive sources at a former nuclear test site. This report covers the recovery of legacy data from the experiments conduct in 1997 and 1998. Two teams collected data. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), in collaboration with the NNC, collected the near-source (local) data out to approximately 20 km. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), with funding from Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLNL), also in collaboration with NNC, collected regional data, 200 – 1000 km distant, leveraging the KZ regional seismic network that LDEO had recently installed in collaboration with NNC. The two teams also worked together to some extent, regarding instrumentation and planning. This report primarily addresses the near-source data collected by the LANL/NNC team.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Toward improved urban earthquake monitoring through deep-learning-based noise suppression

Earthquake monitoring in urban settings is essential but challenging, due to the strong anthropogenic noise inherent to urban seismic recordings. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based denoising algorithm, UrbanDenoiser, to filter out urban seismological noise. UrbanDenoiser strongly suppresses noise relative to the signals, because it was trained using waveform datasets containing rich noise sources from the urban Long Beach dense array and high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) earthquake signals from the rural San Jacinto dense array. Application to the dense array data and an earthquake sequence in an urban area shows that UrbanDenoiser can increase signal quality and recover signals at an SNR level down to ~0 dB. Earthquake location using our denoised Long Beach data does not support the presence of mantle seismicity beneath Los Angeles but suggests a fault model featuring shallow creep, intermediate locking, and localized stress concentration at the base of the seismogenic zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

EGS Collab Experiment 1: 3D Seismic Velocity Model and Updated Microseismic Catalog from Double-Difference Seismic Tomography

This package contains a 3D Seismic velocity model and an updated microseismic catalog obtained for a double-difference seismic tomography study. The 3D_seismic_velocity_model text file contains x (m), y(m), z(m), P-wave velocity (km/s), P-wave velocity quality indicator (1 for well-constrained; 0 for poorly constrained), S-wave velocity (km/s), and S-wave velocity quality indicator (1 for well-constrained; 0 for poorly constrained). The Updated_MEQ_catalog text file contains event origin time, x(m), y(m), z(m), error in x (m), error in y (m), error in z (m), and RMS misfit (millisecond). The 3D_seismic_P-wave_velocity_model animation file shows slices of the 3D P-wave velocity model. The 3D_seismic_S-wave_velocity_model animation file shows slices of the 3D S-wave velocity model. The Interactive_MEQ_location_comparison API file is an interactive visualization of the updated microseismic event locations and the original seismic catalog. The visualization allows users to view and compare the event locations by dragging, rotating, and zooming in. An updated version of 3D_seismic_velocity_model and associated animations were included, which were calculated with a more strict assumption for quality indicators.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seismically induced modification of lunar surface features

The formation of large impact craters and basins produced not only large volumes of ejecta but also catastrophic seismic waves. Theoretical models, extrapolation of terrestrial explosion data, and extrapolation of lunar impact data suggest surface displacements of 1-10 m at four crater radii from a Copernicus-size impact (4 x 10 to the 30th power ergs). Independent estimates of impact-generated stresses indicate that regions within 4 crater radii of an impact will receive shock waves with pressures exceeding 1 kbar. Greater areas also may receive shock effects as elastic waves following deep ray paths transform into shock waves near the surface. Additional seismic energy will be generated by impacts from secondary ejecta. The resulting large and long-lasting surface movement may contribute to the subdued appearance of the continuous ejecta blanket and secondary craters around large impact craters and to the degradation of small craters outside these zones.

Schultz, P. H.↗

A comparison of two types of velocity models for the lunar crust: Smooth continuous and stepwise layered

The data from the Apollo-14 and Apollo-16 Active Seismic Experiments were reanalyzed and show that a power-law velocity variation with depth is consistent with both the traveltimes and amplitudes of the first arrivals for source-to-geophone separations up to 32m. The data were improved by removing spurious glithches, flickering and stacking. While this improved the signal-to-noise ratios, it was not possible to measure the arrivals beyond 32m. The physical evidence that the shallow lunar regolith is made up of fine particles adds weight to the 1/6-power velocity model. The 1/6-power law predicts the traveltime t(x), varies with separation, x, as t(x) = t sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the 5/6 power and, using a first-order theory, the amplitude, A(x), varies as A(x) = A sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the (13-m)/12, M 1; the layer-velocity model predicts t(x) = t sub 0 (x/xsub 0) and A(x) = A sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the 2nd power.

Gangi, A. F.↗

Preliminary Transfer Learning Results on Israel Data

In this preliminary report, we use publicly available data recorded in Israel to test and expand upon existing machine learning models for seismic-phase detection and arrival-time measurement. We downloaded 3-years of waveform data from Geofon, and cross referenced the waveforms to Israel bulletin picks (Schardong et al., 2021). The initial results using existing models directly generated ubiquitous false detections and that obscured detections of signals that are clearly visible in the waveforms. However, after applying transfer learning (tuning parameters in the existing ML models using one year of the Israel-network data), the results are encouraging, i.e. ML picks agree within a few tenths of a second with bulletin picks and the number of false detections is greatly reduced. The bulletin picks are a good starting point, but they cannot be considered ground-truth. To test potential improvement in picking using ML we would like to relocate the events using the ML picks to see if the events cluster more tightly at known mine locations. However, in order to constrain event locations, we need ML picks for the whole Israeli-Jordanian network, which requires waveforms that are not publicly available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

Abstract Applying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Seismotectonic evidence for subduction beneath the Eastern Greater Caucasus

SUMMARY We generated high-resolution 3-D seismic velocity models as well as a relocated earthquake catalogue across the eastern Greater Caucasus and Kura basins. This work was done using data from the recently upgraded Republic Seismological Survey Center's (RSSC) seismic network. We generated our tomographic images of crustal velocity structure in Azerbaijan using double-difference inversions (i.e. tomoDD and hypoDD). Earthquake catalogues from the RSSC between 2011 and 2016 were used; these catalogues include absolute arrival times of 103 288 P- and 120 952 S-wave traveltime picks for 7574 events recorded at 35 stations in Azerbaijan. Beginning with a layered, 1-D velocity model that was estimated using VELEST, we inverted simultaneously for relative location, Vp and Vs on a 3-D grid with dimensions 670 × 445 × 45 km, with a uniform grid spacing of 55 × 55 × 5 km for all of Azerbaijan. We observe that the relocated hypocentres cluster into two depth ranges, at the surface and at depth, that appear to correspond to major fault zones and the top of a subducting plate. Additionally, we note intermediate depth seismicity (∼50–60 km) beneath the Kura Basin, and a northward deepening of earthquake depths. Seismic velocities vary significantly throughout the study region; we observe very slow velocities throughout the Kura Basin between 5 and 15 km, and elevated velocities at 20–35 km. The wholesale velocity structure and seismic structure of Kura Basin strongly mirrors that of the Caspian Sea, which suggests that the geodynamics of the Caspian continue westwards into Azerbaijan. The key results of this study suggest that the northward subduction observed in the Caspian Sea continues beneath the Eastern Greater Caucasus, as well as provides evidence for active faulting along the southern margin of the mountain range.

Gunnels, Michael↗

The Viking seismometry

Efforts were made to determine the seismicity of Mars as well as define its internal structure by detecting vibrations generated by marsquakes and meteoroid impacts. The lack of marsquakes recognized in the Viking data made it impossible to make any direct inferences about the interior of Mars and only allowed the setting of upper bounds on the seismic activity of the planet. After obtaining more than 2100 hours worth of data during the quite periods at rates of one sample per second or higher, the Viking 2 seismometer was turned off as a consequence of a landing system failure. During the periods when adequate data were obtained, one event of possible seismic or meteoroid impact origin was recognized; however, there is a significant probability that this event was generated by a wind gust.

Lazarewicz, A. R.↗