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Informing Cybersecurity Decisions With the Value-at-Risk Framework

Security at every site is critical to making hydropower a strong contributor to the country's grid, but with ongoing development and expanding capabilities, the diversity of the existing hydropower fleet makes across-the-board investment decisions difficult. The threat of cyberattacks naturally increases as the interconnection of Information Technology and Operational Technology networks broadens. Hydropower plants require custom analyses that are specific to the unique challenges and characteristics of any given facility. Facilities, however, often do not have the necessary resources for managers to make informed decisions on investments based on assessed capabilities and risks.

cybersecurity↗

Radiological Monitoring Plan for the Oak Ridge Y-12 National Security Complex: Surface Water

DOE Order 458.1 requires that dose estimates consider contributions from all facilities. In the Y-12 Radiological Monitoring Plan (RMP), surface water is monitored at points that reflect individual facilities, as well as at points that reflect the combined contributions of all facilities. This monitoring plan does not consider other potential routes (i.e., airborne releases and food chains). Thus, a complete determination of total effective dose (TED) cannot be made based on this plan alone. The other routes from Y-12, and all routes from other DOE facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (e.g., Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and The Heritage Center), must be considered in order to satisfy DOE Order 458.1 requirements. Determination of TED from all sites and pathways is done through the use of dose-assessment models and is documented in the Annual Site Environmental Report. This monitoring plan provides adequate monitoring goals for Y-12 surface water releases to provide input of sufficient sensitivity and accuracy to reliably determine the Y-12 surface water component of the TED. The routine radiological monitoring program is designed to monitor effluents at four types of locations: (1) treatment facilities, (2) other point and area source discharges, (3) instream locations, and (4) production building roof run-off. With this sampling and analysis program, data will be obtained on primary point sources as well as on locations that represent the composite of other potential sources. This plan will be reviewed periodically to determine necessary modifications to the sampling frequencies, parameters, and locations. Modifications, if any, will be based on the analysis of the previous data and its effectiveness in satisfying the objectives of this plan. Appendix A contains graphs of the sum of the DCS fractions for locations and frequencies contained in a previous version of this plan. The data was collected from January 2009 through December 2019. Each sample was analyzed, and each result was divided by the appropriate DCS to compute a DCS fraction. These fractions were summed for all isotopes. According to DOE –STD-1196-2011, the annual average of these sums should be below 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heterogeneous Multi-Domain Dataset Synthesis to Facilitate Privacy and Risk Assessments in Smart City IoT

The emergence of the Smart Cities paradigm and the rapid expansion and integration of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies within this context have created unprecedented opportunities for high-resolution behavioral analytics, urban optimization, and context-aware services. However, this same proliferation intensifies privacy risks, particularly those arising from cross-modal data linkage across heterogeneous sensing platforms. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a comprehensive, statistically grounded framework for generating synthetic, multimodal IoT datasets tailored to Smart City research. The framework produces behaviorally plausible synthetic data suitable for preliminary privacy risk assessment and as a benchmark for future re-identification studies, as well as for evaluating algorithms in mobility modeling, urban informatics, and privacy-enhancing technologies. As part of our approach, we formalize probabilistic methods for synthesizing three heterogeneous and operationally relevant data streams—cellular mobility traces, payment terminal transaction logs, and Smart Retail nutrition records—capturing the behaviors of a large number of synthetically generated urban residents over a 12-week period. The framework integrates spatially explicit merchant selection using K-Dimensional (KD)-tree nearest-neighbor algorithms, temporally correlated anchor-based mobility simulation reflective of daily urban rhythms, and dietary-constraint filtering to preserve ecological validity in consumption patterns. In total, the system generates approximately 116 million mobility pings, 5.4 million transactions, and 1.9 million itemized purchases, yielding a reproducible benchmark for evaluating multimodal analytics, privacy-preserving computation, and secure IoT data-sharing protocols. To show the validity of this dataset, the underlying distributions of these residents were successfully validated against reported distributions in published research. We present preliminary uniqueness and cross-modal linkage indicators; comprehensive re-identification benchmarking against specific attack algorithms is planned as future work. This framework can be easily adapted to various scenarios of interest in Smart Cities and other IoT applications. By aligning methodological rigor with the operational needs of Smart City ecosystems, this work fills critical gaps in synthetic data generation for privacy-sensitive domains, including intelligent transportation systems, urban health informatics, and next-generation digital commerce infrastructures.

IoT↗

Predicting multiphase flow and tracer transport for an underground chemical explosive test

Detecting radionuclide gas seepage from clandestine underground nuclear tests is central to nonproliferation explosion monitoring research. Yet, early-time (<6 day) gas transport driven by the explosive pressure wave remains poorly constrained due to scarcity of field data. We simulate multi-phase gas transport in the vadose zone using pre-shot data from a recent chemical explosion in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, USA. Despite using a simplified 2D-radial model, predictions of tracer arrival matched observations within one order-of-magnitude. Our results show how transient blast forcing rapidly mobilizes gases from the cavity into surrounding rock – critical for optimizing sensor placement and test planning. This unique integration of field data and modeling represents a significant improvement in our ability to predict gas migration from underground explosions. More broadly, it offers insights into the coupled dynamics of pressure waves and contaminant transport in the vadose zone, with implications for monitoring and hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Naturally Occurring Be-7 Activity on LANL Stack Filter Clumps

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is responsible for providing solutions to challenging issues through multidisciplinary science, engineering, and technology that impact national security. As part of the Radioactive Air Emissions Management (RAEM) Team, it is our responsibility to ensure LANL operates within the requirements of the Code of Federal Regulations 40 CFR 61, Subpart H, National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other Than Radon From Department of Energy Facilities (Rad-NESHAP). The standard states, “Emissions of radionuclides to the ambient air from Department of Energy facilities shall not exceed those amounts that would cause any member of the public to receive in any year an effective dose equivalent of 10 mrem/yr” (EPA, 2002) During a routine assessment of LANL’s Rad-NESHAP compliance program, an opportunity for improvement was identified that addresses the evaluation of routine stack samples which potentially have naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) on the filter media. In the past and based on professional judgment, detections of NORM such as K-40 and Be-7 typically were rejected from the analytical results. The assessment finding suggested developing a technical criterion to ensure that such rejections were justified, comparing actual measured values with anticipated NORM concentrations for various stacks located at LANL. The significance of accepting or rejecting samples as “true” or “NORM” and its impact on the RAEM’s mission and compliance to the regulations is explained later in the document. Additionally, this document will describe the process and calculations for how such results are to be accepted as actual samples “true positive” or rejected as NORM.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NARUC grid data sharing playbook

In 2022, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) launched an initiative to support its members in addressing issues related to grid data sharing. The Grid Data Sharing Collaborative was funded by the DOE’s Office of Electricity and Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). NARUC invited programmatic, policy, technical, and cybersecurity subject matter experts from public utility commissions, utilities, non-governmental organizations, energy service companies, and DOE to join the two-year Grid Data Sharing Collaborative to help develop a flexible framework for states to use as a starting point when navigating complex decision-making inherent in grid data sharing. The framework took shape through a series of intensive workshops during which Collaborative participants explored illustrative use cases to identify data needs, articulate the benefits and risks of sharing such data, and assess the trade-offs. Along the way, participants offered suggestions for how the framework could be used in practice. The purpose of this playbook is to describe the elements of the Grid Data Sharing Framework and to begin supporting its implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Smart Planning for Radioactive Source Transport Advanced Tools for Increased Safety and Efficiency

End-of-life (EOL) management of high-activity radioactive sources is made uniquely challenging by the inherent risks associated with storage and transportation of these sources, the complex logistics involved, and the strict requirements for regulatory compliance. Traditional methods lack comprehensive tools for accurate site assessments and precision planning for the transportation of radioactive sources. They also frequently fail to provide the adaptability required to consider diverse operational environments, resulting in inefficiencies and potential safety concerns. This paper introduces a novel software solution developed to address these issues by integrating advanced technologies such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-based 3D environment modeling, smart dynamic route planning, and customizable measurement functionalities. This software enables detailed terrain visualizations, facilitating thorough environmental assessments and enabling users to virtually navigate, analyze, and plan site-specific operations. Among the key features are a user-centric interface for virtual navigation, precise site measurement tools for site evaluations, interactive visualizations that highlight potential operational hazards, dynamic route planning capabilities, and real-time collision detection to promote safe workflows. By demonstrating the effectiveness of this tool through real-world application, the present work underscores the tool’s potential to revolutionize radioactive source EOL management by improving operational efficiencies, minimizing risk, and advancing the state of practice to achieve suitable and secure radioactive material handling.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Recommendations for Secure Transport: Material Conveyance Physical Protection Technology

Nuclear material is at higher risk of theft and sabotage during transport than during any other phase of the nuclear fuel lifecycle. Nuclear materials are transported in the public domain where adversaries have an upper hand by taking advantage of the time and location of the theft or sabotage attempt. As such, even modest threat profiles for transport of nuclear and radioactive material can require substantial detection and delay measures to support timely response. Conveyance tracking augmented with technology that improves on-the-scene situational awareness at a remote monitoring center has been adopted as a de-facto standard approach for transportation security. At present, the extended tracking and situational awareness capabilities needed for a nuclear material shipment, as is provided by the purpose designed, Transportation – Security, Tracking and Reporting (T-STAR) System, do not exist in a single commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution. Typically, the COTS systems that excel in one area are deficient in other areas, presenting challenges to designing well-rounded, robust systems. Still, COTS solutions can offer the basic set of tracking and situational awareness capabilities by indicating last update time, current location, and route taken. By incorporating vehicle and driver performance measures via the vehicle’s controller area network (CAN bus) and video alongside other data streams allows telemetry and other shipment information to be assessed in novel ways.This paper describes the operation, capabilities and features of various conveyance protection systems and approaches, assesses emerging technologies and how they could be used through a unified interface, and enumerates additional ways to provide early detection using vehicle, onboard technologies, effective delay technologies and approaches and simple equipment to improve protection during transport.

Shannon, Michael↗

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT)

SAND2024-08551O The Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT) evaluates potential environmental risk associated with marine energy device deployment by coupling modeled impacts with risk severity maps. As a graphical user interface-based software, it interacts with marine energy stressor and receptor data to evaluate the risk of changes to marine environment. SEAT, which relies on spatial and temporal data, is a plug-in for geospatial software QGIS. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Chartrand, Chris↗

Regulatory Considerations for Nuclear Energy Applications of Digital Twin Technologies

Digital twins (DTs) in complex industrial and engineering applications have potential benefits that include increased operational efficiencies, enhanced safety and reliability, improved security engineering, reduced errors, faster information sharing, and better predictions. The interest in DT technologies continues to grow, and many of these advanced technologies are expected to experience rapid and wide industry adoption in the near future. Some of the potential application areas for DTs in the nuclear industry are design, licensing, plant construction, training simulators, predictive operations and maintenance, autonomous operation and control, failure and degradation prediction, physical protection modeling and simulation, and safety and reliability analyses. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has initiated a future-focused research project to assess the regulatory viability of DTs for nuclear power plants and other NRC-regulated activities, such as fuel cycle facilities and operations. This report explores the potential impact of DT technologies in nuclear applications on NRC-regulated activities of interest. This report describes a nuclear DT system and its capabilities for nuclear power plant applications, followed by identification and discussion of some regulated activities that merit special consideration and present opportunities in implementing DT-enabling technologies and capabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Comparison of Results from Recent NNSA and CEA Measurements of the 239 Pu(n, f) Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)/DP French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)/DAM agreement on cooperation on fundamental science is a U.S.-French collaborative effort to combine intellectual and experimental resources and further the relevant nuclear science. Recently, both the NNSA and CEA experimental teams performed high-statistics measurements of the 239 Pu(n, f) prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center, both of which were recently published in the journal Physical Review C. These separate measurements used the same experimental area and a common neutron detector array, but differ in many aspects, including background assessments, data acquisition systems and philosophies, fission detectors, and PFNS extraction techniques. Hence, some aspects of the experimental methods and associated uncertainties are highly correlated while others are independent. The results from both measurements broke new ground for PFNS measurements given their higher accuracy and more detailed study of corrections necessary for the measured quantity compared to existing literature measurements, and both will significantly impact PFNS nuclear data evaluations for the foreseeable future. Here, the focus of this work is to document a comparison of the results from these distinct measurements in terms of the acquired data, the PFNS results, and the measured average PFNS energies. While systematic differences between the PFNS results are present on the 1–3% level, the acquired data relative to each respective measurement at low incident neutron energies are in remarkable agreement, as are the conclusions regarding the magnitude and position of features in the PFNS relating to second-chance fission, third-chance fission, and pre-equilibrium neutron emission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Initial Inventory of Non-Technical Challenges to CCUS Deployment

The “Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership” (SECARBUSA) project supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy's (FE) mission to help the United States meet its need for secure, affordable, and environmentally sound fossil energy supplies by utilizing the advancements made by the current Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (RCSP) Initiative to continue to identify and address knowledge gaps. The primary project objective is to identify and address regional onshore storage and transport challenges facing commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. The Research Partners and a selected industry network of experienced CCUS project developers and operators will coordinate their capabilities to accelerate CCUS deployment by achieving four primary research objectives: 1) address key technical challenges; 2) facilitate data collection, sharing and analysis; 3) assess transportation and distribution infrastructure; and 4) promote regional technology transfer and dissemination of knowledge. The SECARB-USA Region includes the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia and portions of Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia. Under subtask 5.2: Non-Technical Challenges to CCUS Deployment, the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) will define and identify An Inventory of Non-Technical Challenges to CCUS Deployment. As an initial step, SSEB organized an Industry and Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Working Group comprised of knowledgeable market participants to assist in the development of an initial list of non-technical challenges to CCUS development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Next U.S. Strategic Posture - and the Posture After Next (Workshop Summary)

On July 8-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The Next U.S. Strategic Posture – And the Posture After Next.” This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities in the United States and among allies. The event was a follow-up discussion to CGSR’s last meeting titled “Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Nuclear Posture in 2030 and Beyond.” The July workshop had a broader scope and looked at the different elements of U.S. strategic posture, including not just nuclear capabilities but missile defense, conventional prompt global strike, and space and cyberspace. Participants assessed the 2030 U.S. posture relative to the predicted Russian and Chinese postures, and they examined what capabilities will be crucial beyond 2030.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Fracture Network Prediction Using Physics-based Machine Learning Algorithms

In recent years, systematic CO2 injection into geological reservoirs across the U.S. has gained traction as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This approach necessitates precise monitoring to ensure secure containment, minimize risks, and optimize storage management. Our study leverages machine learning (ML) techniques to advance the understanding of CO2 injection processes, focusing on the Illinois Basin. Over a three-year injection period, we analyzed microseismic data, identifying 19 temporal intervals with significant bottom-hole pressure changes. By partitioning microseismic events into these intervals and estimating b-values, we revealed over 100 clusters of events related to fracture initiation or reactivation. Advanced spatial analysis highlighted horizontally-oriented fractures along the NNW-SSE axis. This quantification of fracture networks informs dynamic injection scheduling, work-over strategies, and risk assessments, enhancing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) operations. Additionally, our methodology offers valuable insights for oil and gas operations and geothermal development, supporting fracture-based monitoring and risk mitigation.

Kumar, Abhash↗

Alpha-Imaging Detector System Development for Large Area Monitoring

Effective management and disposal of legacy nuclear waste are essential for ensuring safe work environments and minimizing environmental impacts. Monitoring airborne actinide contamination is particularly critical due to the high internal dose potential of alpha-emitting radionuclides. Traditional continuous air monitoring systems (CAMs) used in the industry are limited in the volume of air they can sample, potentially leading to inaccurate radiation detection over large areas. For example, in 2018, elevated levels of airborne Plutonium-239 were detected beyond the controlled areas of the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant, highlighting the potential risks to both plant workers and nearby residents. To address these challenges, high-efficiency particulate absorbing (HEPA) air purifiers can enhance air flow by up to 1.5 orders of magnitude, thereby increasing monitoring efficiency and providing a cost-effective solution for large-area surveillance. To quantify the activities of alpha-emitting radionuclides on HEPA filters, the Savannah River National Laboratory is developing an advanced alpha-imaging detection system. This system includes scintillating materials combined with a digital scientific camera. A significant concern in operating such a large-area airborne monitoring system is the handling of HEPA filters, which may be contaminated with radioactive particles. To mitigate these hazards, it is crucial to ensure that any contamination is securely fixed onto the filters. Efforts have been made to optimize the sensitivity of scintillator-epoxy composites and apply them to HEPA filters. These materials were characterized using fluoroscence spectroscopy. These techniques confirmed the purity of the raw materials, the dispersion of scintillators in the epoxy matrix, and the stability of their optical and structural properties post-modification. The optimal scintillator-epoxy composite was selected for use on alpha-spiked HEPA filters to evaluate the efficiency of the sprayer. HEPA filters, embedded with alpha particles collected by an air purifier deployed in an airborne radiation area, have been tested to assess detection efficiency. Future work will focus on employing multiple imaging sensors simultaneously to enhance sensitivity across different regions of the HEPA filter.

Pham, Phuong [Savannah River National Laboratory (↗

Impact of aquifer properties on the extent and timeline of CO 2 trapping

Abstract Geologic CO 2 sequestration in porous saline aquifers is a promising approach to reducing atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 . Reactive transport simulations provide the opportunity to analyze which factors influence geochemical reactivity in the reservoir, understand those most important for promoting CO 2 trapping, and assess individual sites. Field‐scale aquifer characterization is time and resource intensive such that here, reactive transport simulations are leveraged to enhance understanding of selected aquifer properties including porosity, permeability, depth of storage, and carbonate mineralogy on the overall CO 2 trapping potential to better select sites promoting geochemical reactivity for CO 2 trapping. There are different mechanisms for sequestrating CO 2 . Once injected, CO 2 will dissolve into the brine to create an acidic environment, resulting in the dissolution of pre‐injection formation minerals. Released ions can reprecipitate as secondary minerals. The dissolved CO 2 and mineralized CO 2 are considered as a more secure form of CO 2 trapping in this study compared to the free supercritical CO 2 . Here, a framework leveraging a controlled set of field scale simulations is developed to facilitate rapid, optimized site selection. Simulations vary aquifer properties to understand the impact of each unique property on CO 2 trapping, tracking, and comparing the amount of supercritical, aqueous, and mineralized CO 2 . The rate at which the CO 2 injected into the aquifer is converted to aqueous or mineralized CO 2 is newly defined here as the sequestration efficiency and used to compare simulation results. The reservoir depth and fraction of carbonate minerals in the formation are shown to be more important factors than reservoir porosity and permeability in affecting CO 2 trapping. However, the impact of aquifer properties on the evolution of injected CO 2 depends on the stage of the sequestration project. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Energy & Fuels↗

Test Points for Online Monitoring of Quantum Circuits

Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers consisting of tens of inherently noisy quantum bits (qubits) suffer from reliability problems. Qubits and their gates are susceptible to various types of errors. Due to limited numbers of qubits and high error rates, quantum error correction cannot be applied. Physical constraints of quantum hardware including the error rates are used to guide the design and the layout of quantum circuits. The error rates determine the selection of qubits and their operations. The resulting circuit is executed on the quantum computer. This study explores the risk of unexpected changes in the error rates of NISQ computers post-calibration. We show that unexpected changes in error rates can alter the output state of a quantum circuit. To detect these changes, we propose the insertion of test points into the quantum circuit to enable online monitoring of the physical qubit behavior. We utilize classical, superposition, and uncompute test points. Furthermore, we use a gate error coverage metric to assess the quality of the tests. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme on different IBM quantum computers (IBM Q), in addition to a noisy simulation that shows the scalability of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗