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At least 757 records · Page 42

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Chromospheric and photospheric evolution of an extremely active solar region in solar cycle 19

a comprehensive investigation was made of phenomena attending the disk passage, July 7 to 21, 1959, of active solar center HAO-59Q. At the photospheric level that comprised an aggregate of groups of sunspots of which one group, Mt. Wilson 14284, showed all the attributes deemed typical of solar regions associated with the production of major flares. A special characteristic of 59Q was its capability to eject dark material. Part of this material remained trapped in the strong magnetic fields above group 14284 where it formed a system of interrelated arches, the legs of which passed through components of the bright chromospheric network of the plage and were rooted in various underlying umbrae. Two apparently diffeent kinds of flare were identified in 59Q; namely, prominence flares (which comprised brightenings within part of the suspended dark prominence) and plage flares (which comprised brightenings within part of the chromospheric network). Prominence flares were of three varieties described as 'impact', 'stationary' and 'moving' prominence flares. Plage flares were accompanied in 3 percent of cases by Type III bursts. These latter radio events indicate the associated passage through the corona of energetic electrons in the approximate energy range 10 to 100 keV. At least 87.5 percent, and probably all, impulsive brightenings in 59Q began directly above minor spots, many of which satellites to major umbrae. Stationary and moving prominence flares were individually triggered at sites beneath which magnetic changes occurred within intervals which included each flare's flash phase.

Mckenna-Lawlor, S. M. P.↗

First global WCRP shortwave surface radiation budget dataset

Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Whitlock, C. H.↗

NASA's Participation in Joint SatOPS Compatibility Efforts 2009-2010

Many U.S. government organizations build or fly space systems: a) NASA, NOAA, Navy, Air Force, NRO, ORS. Others? b) Through the Joint SatOps Compatibility Committee (JSCC) we have increased the grass-roots interaction between many of these organizations. c) We all deal with many of the same challenges: More rapid deployments, lower budgets; Advancing technologies - frameworks, clouds, virtualization; Evolving concepts - automation, situational awareness, enterprise mngt. Standardization - formal or by common use. There is an inherently governmental role in creating the business case for contractors and commercial product vendors to move in directions beneficial to multiple government space organizations.

Smith, Danford↗

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Technique Using Principal Component Analysis to Compare Seasonal Cycles of Earth Radiation from CERES and Model Computations

A method for quantitatively comparing the seasonal cycles of two global data sets is presented. The seasonal cycles of absorbed solar radiation (ASR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) have been computed from an eight-year data set from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanning radiometers and from a model data set produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. To compare the seasonal cycles from these two data sets, principal component (PC) analysis is used, where the PCs express the time variations and the corresponding empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) describe the geographic variations. Ocean has a long thermal response time compared to land, so land and ocean are separated for the analysis. The root-mean square values for the seasonal cycles of ASR and OLR are extremely close for the two data sets. The first three PCs are quite close, showing that the time responses and magnitudes over the globe are very similar. The agreement between the two sets of PCs is quantified by computing the matrix of inner products of the two sets. For ASR over land, the first PCs of CERES and the model agree to better than 99.9%. The EOF maps are similar for most of the globe, but differ in a few places, and the agreement of the EOF maps is likewise quantified. Maps of differences between the annual cycles show regions of agreement and disagreement.

Smith, G. Louis↗

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study&#x27;s use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Study of the Carbon Cycle Using NASA Observations and the GEOS Model

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been developed in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. From its roots in chemical transport and as a General Circulation Model, the GEOS model has been extended to an Earth System Model based on a modular construction using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), combining elements developed in house in the GMAO with others that are imported through collaborative research. It is used extensively for research and for product generation, both as a free-running model and as the core of the GMAO's data assimilation system. In recent years, the GMAO's modeling and assimilation efforts have been strongly supported by Piers Sellers, building on both his earlier legacy as an observationally oriented model developer and his post-astronaut career as a dynamic leader into new territory. Piers' long-standing interest in the carbon cycle and the combination of models with observations motivates this presentation, which will focus on the representation of the carbon cycle in the GEOS Earth System Model. Examples will include: (i) the progression from specified land-atmosphere surface fluxes to computations with an interactive model component (Catchment-CN), along with constraints on vegetation distributions using satellite observations; (ii) the use of high-resolution satellite observations to constrain human-generated inputs to the atmosphere; (iii) studies of the consistency of the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations with those in the model simulations. The presentation will focus on year-to-year variations in elements of the carbon cycle, specifically on how the observations can inform the representation of mechanisms in the model and lead to integrity in global carbon dioxide simulations. Further, applications of the GEOS model to the planning of new carbon-climate observations will be addressed, as an example of the work that was strongly supported by Piers in the last months of his leadership of Earth Science at NASA Goddard.

Pawson, Steven↗

Consistency Between NASS Surveyed Soil Moisture Conditions and SMAP Soil Moisture Observations

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Survey (NASS) collects and publishes crop growth status and soil moisture conditions in major US agricultural regions. The operationally-produced weekly reports are based on survey information. The surveys are based on visual assessments and ? in the case of soil moisture ? report soil moisture levels in one of four categories (Very Short, Short, Adequate and Surplus). In this study, we show that these reports have remarkable correspondence with the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4SM) product. This consistency allows the combining the two distinct types of data to produce a value-added combination, which is mapped fields rather than State-by-State tables and it is refreshed daily rather than weekly. In this study classification thresholds are derived for L4SM by mapping cumulative distribution functions of L4SM surface and root-zone SM to the categorical NASS SM conditions. The results show that, year-over-year, the SMAP cumulative SM distributions are consistent with the NASS SM conditions and, furthermore, that the temporal evolution of the SMAP-derived thresholds is consistent with the seasonal crop growth cycles from year to year. The results signify that the SMAP SM retrievals are relatable to SM estimation conducted in agriculture by land managers and farmers, which underlines the general applicability of the SMAP data.

Andreas Colliander↗

NASA X-HAB Water Delivery System

As part of the eXploration Systems and Habitation (X-HAB) Academic Innovation Challenge program of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), The Ohio State University was selected to improve the performance of NASA’s existing Vegetable Production System (VEGGIE), which is a deployable plant growth unit for International Space Station (ISS). During the academic year 2015-2016, The Ohio State University student team developed a passive water delivery system using capillary water transport principle (Jenson et al. 2016). The major design improvement made was directly connecting the water reservoir to the plant-rooting pillows using a single-interface capillary cord design. Harvestable plants were successfully grown from seeds using the single interface system. In addition, Nomex®, a fabric material composed of short nylon based fibers, was identified as the material for wicks. Finally, the water reservoir was modeled as a propellant management device (PMD) to ensure consistent and long term watering of the VEGGIE system. The PMDs are made of materials that utilize surface tension and adhesive forces to improve stability and fluid delivery. The team recommended using a sponge PMD in order to mitigate bubble obstruction, decrease system weight, and ensure reliable water delivery to the capillary interface.

Peter Ling↗

Effects of Residual Water System Silver on Space Crop Microbiome and Nutrient Content

Ionic silver (Ag+) is being investigated as a residual biocide for use in spacecraft potable water systems on future crewed missions. In addition to providing clean water to the crew and other life support system functions, the potable water is used to irrigate space crop production units such as the Vegetable Production System (Veggie) and the Advanced Plant Habitat (APH). We have evaluated the impact of different concentrations of Ag+ biocide solutions in comparison to a control in both substrate (arcillite-based) and substrate-less (hydroponics-based) growth set ups. Here, we provide evidence that increasing the concentration of silver in the irrigation water impacts the root zone microbiome in both setups, with plant growth and elemental nutrient content also affected in the hydroponic set up. This suggests a need for a silver removal step to achieve acceptable silver levels in irrigation water before application to space crops in a substrate-less hydroponics system. This removal step is also recommended for a substrate-based system, although it is not as critical as in a hydroponics system.

Aubrie O’Rourke↗

Climate adaptation and sustainability in switchgrass: exploring plant-microbe-soil interactions across continental scale environmental gradients

Less carbon-intensive energy sources are needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and their predicted role in climate change. There is growing interest in the potential of biofuels for meeting this need. A critical question is whether large-scale biofuel production can be sustainable over the time scales needed to mitigate our carbon debt from fossil fuel consumption. The carbon balance and ultimately the sustainability of biofuel feedstock production is the result of complex climate-coupled interactions between carbon fixation, sequestration, and release through combustion. Similarly, the long-term productivity of biofuels depends on the environmental factors limiting plant growth. These factors are often related to soil resources which involve complex interactions at the plant-microbe-soil interface impacting their availability and cycling. Our collaborative project addressed sustainable switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) production by exploring Plant Systems, Plant-Microbiome Interactions, and Ecosystem Processes through the integrating lens of Multi-Scale Modeling. Our research was based on detailed characterization of genetically diverse switchgrass genotypes planted in common gardens across a continental latitudinal gradient. The underlying theme of our Plant Systems research was the use of locally adapted plant material to explore plant function, to understand the mechanistic basis of environmental interactions, and to discover the plant genes important for adaptation and sustainability in the face of climate change. Our Plant-Microbiome Interaction project characterized the microbial communities associated with switchgrass using genomic tools. Our Ecosystem Processes research focused on carbon cycle responses at the ecosystem level using stand level plantings. Finally, our Multi-Scale Modeling helped to define conditions of a sustainable biofuel system and identify key tradeoffs between genetic diversity, productivity, and ecosystem services. Genome-wide association analyses were used to identify alleles that contribute to successful establishment and biomass production across North America. Together, our work provided a baseline analyses of the potential of switchgrass as a biofuel feedstock. Our project resulted in a number of successful outcomes. First, we were successful in collecting switchgrass germplasm across the species range, propagating the material, and establishing common garden experiments across the species range. In collaboration with DOE JGI, we successfully assembled the first tetraploid switchgrass genome and published this resource with an analyses of the genetic basis local adaptation from our gardens (Lowry et al. 2019, Lovell et al. 2021). The gardens were used to characterize the genetic architecture for a number of important plant phenotypes. Our project also conducted extensive sampling and sequencing to characterize the bacterial and fungal associates of switchgrass roots and leaves. We showed that host genotype, location, and harvesting practices can play a role in microbiome assembly (Singer et al. 2019 & 2022, Van Wallendael et al. 2020 & 2022, Edwards et al. 2023). Our ecosystem processes work created baseline dataset of carbon and nutrient cycling in realistic stand plantings of switchgrass. Data from this experiment provided new insight into the role of plant traits, phenology, and local environments in ecosystem processes like soil respiration, net-ecosystem exchange, and dynamics of soil and plant nutrients (Ricketts et al. 2023). Finally, our crop modelling experiments help to characterize the sensitivity of common modeling frameworks to parameters, identify key limiters of productivity across large geographic scales, and leverage patterns of local adaptation in prediction. Ultimately, these studies help to identify critical plant-microbe-soil traits that may be manipulated, through breeding or agronomic management, to improve the sustainability of biofuel feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Veggie ISS Validation Test Results and Produce Consumption

The Veggie vegetable production system flew to the International Space Station (ISS) in the spring of 2014. The first set of plants, Outredgeous red romaine lettuce, was grown, harvested, frozen, and returned to Earth in October. Ground control and flight plant tissue was sub-sectioned for microbial analysis, anthocyanin antioxidant phenolic analysis, and elemental analysis. Microbial analysis was also performed on samples swabbed on orbit from plants, Veggie bellows, and plant pillow surfaces, on water samples, and on samples of roots, media, and wick material from two returned plant pillows. Microbial levels of plants were comparable to ground controls, with some differences in community composition. The range in aerobic bacterial plate counts between individual plants was much greater in the ground controls than in flight plants. No pathogens were found. Anthocyanin concentrations were the same between ground and flight plants, while antioxidant and phenolic levels were slightly higher in flight plants. Elements varied, but key target elements for astronaut nutrition were similar between ground and flight plants. Aerobic plate counts of the flight plant pillow components were significantly higher than ground controls. Surface swab samples showed low microbial counts, with most below detection limits. Flight plant microbial levels were less than bacterial guidelines set for non-thermostabalized food and near or below those for fungi. These guidelines are not for fresh produce but are the closest approximate standards. Forward work includes the development of standards for space-grown produce. A produce consumption strategy for Veggie on ISS includes pre-flight assessments of all crops to down select candidates, wiping flight-grown plants with sanitizing food wipes, and regular Veggie hardware cleaning and microbial monitoring. Produce then could be consumed by astronauts, however some plant material would be reserved and returned for analysis. Implementation of this plan is a step toward developing pick-and-eat food production to supplement the packaged diet on ISS and for future exploration missions where plants could make up a larger portion of the diet. Supported by NASA Space Biology Program.

Food Safety↗

Assimilation of Freeze - Thaw Observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

The land surface freeze-thaw (F-T) state plays a key role in the hydrological and carbon cycles and thus affects water and energy exchanges and vegetation productivity at the land surface. In this study, we developed an F-T assimilation algorithm for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling and assimilation framework. The algorithm includes a newly developed observation operator that diagnoses the landscape F-T state in the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model. The F-T analysis is a rule-based approach that adjusts Catchment model state variables in response to binary F-T observations, while also considering forecast and observation errors. A regional observing system simulation experiment was conducted using synthetically generated F-T observations. The assimilation of perfect (error-free) F-T observations reduced the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.206 C and 0.061 C, respectively, when compared to model estimates (equivalent to a relative RMSE reduction of 6.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively). For a maximum classification error (CEmax) of 10 percent in the synthetic F-T observations, the F-T assimilation reduced the RMSE of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.178 C and 0.036 C, respectively. For CEmax=20 percent, the F-T assimilation still reduces the RMSE of model surface temperature estimates by 0.149 C but yields no improvement over the model soil temperature estimates. The F-T assimilation scheme is being developed to exploit planned operational F-T products from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

GEOS5↗

The ecosystem wilting point defines drought response and recovery of a Quercus‐Carya forest

Abstract Soil and atmospheric droughts increasingly threaten plant survival and productivity around the world. Yet, conceptual gaps constrain our ability to predict ecosystem‐scale drought impacts under climate change. Here, we introduce the ecosystem wilting point (Ψ EWP ), a property that integrates the drought response of an ecosystem's plant community across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Specifically, Ψ EWP defines a threshold below which the capacity of the root system to extract soil water and the ability of the leaves to maintain stomatal function are strongly diminished. We combined ecosystem flux and leaf water potential measurements to derive the Ψ EWP of a Quercus‐Carya forest from an “ecosystem pressure–volume (PV) curve,” which is analogous to the tissue‐level technique. When community predawn leaf water potential (Ψ pd ) was above Ψ EWP (=−2.0 MPa), the forest was highly responsive to environmental dynamics. When Ψ pd fell below Ψ EWP , the forest became insensitive to environmental variation and was a net source of carbon dioxide for nearly 2 months. Thus, Ψ EWP is a threshold defining marked shifts in ecosystem functional state. Though there was rainfall‐induced recovery of ecosystem gas exchange following soaking rains, a legacy of structural and physiological damage inhibited canopy photosynthetic capacity. Although over 16 growing seasons, only 10% of Ψ pd observations fell below Ψ EWP , the forest is commonly only 2–4 weeks of intense drought away from reaching Ψ EWP , and thus highly reliant on frequent rainfall to replenish the soil water supply. We propose, based on a bottom‐up analysis of root density profiles and soil moisture characteristic curves, that soil water acquisition capacity is the major determinant of Ψ EWP , and species in an ecosystem require compatible leaf‐level traits such as turgor loss point so that leaf wilting is coordinated with the inability to extract further water from the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interplanetary Protons versus Interacting Protons in the 2017 September 10 Solar Eruptive Event

We analyze the relativistic proton emission from the Sun during the eruptive event on 2017 September 10, which caused a ground-level enhancement (GLE 72) registered by the worldwide network of neutron monitors. Using the neutron monitor data and interplanetary transport modeling both along and across interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) lines, we deduce parameters of the proton injection into the interplanetary medium. The inferred injection profile of the interplanetary protons is compared with the profile of the >100 MeV γ -ray emission observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope, attributed to pion production from the interaction of >300 MeV protons at the Sun. GLE 72 started with a prompt component that arrived along the IMF lines. This was followed by a more prolonged enhancement caused by protons arriving at the Earth across the IMF lines from the southwest. The interplanetary proton event is modeled using two sources—one source at the root of the Earth-connected IMF line and another source situated near the solar western limb. The maximum phase of the second injection of interplanetary protons coincides with the maximum phase of the prolonged >100 MeV γ -ray emission that originated from a small area at the solar western limb, below the current sheet trailing the associated coronal mass ejection (CME). A possible common source of interacting protons and interplanetary protons is discussed in terms of proton acceleration at the CME bow shock versus coronal (re-)acceleration in the wake of the CME.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mining the Gravity Mutants of Arabidopsis

Gravity mutants are a valuable resource for understanding gravity perception, signaling, and response in plants. A review of 190 publications resulted in a list of 97 loci with mutations that caused a gravitropic phenotype. While all these mutants show some form of gravity phenotype, several are also generally defective in growth. After removing these nonspecific mutants, 76 loci were deemed to have true gravity mutants. The gene list was then used to create a sortable database containing key factors of gravity signaling as well as data on methodologies and the development of mutant lines. Indexing this database has allowed us to pull out trends that were not visible in individual publications. For example, mutants that are unable to rearrange starch statoliths make up a larger proportion of the described inflorescence stems mutants than any other organ. Comparing these statolith mutants across organs shows that root and inflorescence stems consistently display different phenotypes for the same class of defect. The more severe gravity defects are most commonly described in root tissue while other tissues are more likely to show only a delayed or reduced response to gravity. The experience of members of the GeneLab plant Analytics Working Group (AWG) in data visualization and gene mapping have sparked new ideas for utilizing this database. Knowledge of shared traits, mutant development, and growth can provide a new resource for the production of seed lines specialized for their response to gravity.

gravitropism↗