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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Systems-Level Approach to Address Risks and Ethics in Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the world, from completely controlling routine or mundane tasks like text and image generation, to powering advanced algorithms that control critical systems. The recent advances in generative AI quickly overwhelmed multiple industries from education to finance as first adopters rushed (and continue to rush) to take advantage of the technology. The expanding AI ecosystem presents novel risks and ethical challenges that must be handled to ensure that technology is leveraged fairly and ethically. There are intertwined risks and ethical challenges stemming from the stochastic nature of AI (i.e., intrinsic risks), as well as from specific applications (i.e., extrinsic risks). Appropriately regulating AI requires a systems-approach to develop an integrated solution to these dependent challenges. Thus far, however, questions of risk, ethics and regulation appear to occupy separate spaces. This paper reviews the risks and ethical implications of AI and proposes a system-level approach to integrating ethics and regulation for the nascent industry.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Human exposure to trace elements through the skin by direct contact with clothing: Risk assessment

Metals in textile products and clothing are used for many purposes, such as metal complex dyes, pigments, mordant, catalyst in synthetic fabrics manufacture, synergists of flame retardants, antimicrobials, or as water repellents and odour-preventive agents. When present in textile materials, heavy metals may mean a potential danger to human health. In the present study, the concentrations of a number of elements (Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sc, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tl, V, and Zn) were determined in skin-contact clothes. Analysed clothes were made of different materials, colours, and brands. Interestingly, we found high levels of Cr in polyamide dark clothes (605 mg/kg), high Sb concentrations in polyester clothes (141 mg/kg), and great Cu levels in some green cotton fabrics (around 280 mg/kg). Dermal contact exposure and human health risks for adult males, adult females, and for <1-year-old children were assessed. Non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were below safe (HQ<1) and acceptable (<10{sup −6}) limits, respectively, according to international standards. However, for Sb, non-carcinogenic risk was above 10% of the safety limit (HQ>0.1) for dermal contact with clothes. - Highlights: • We determined in skin-contact clothes the concentrations of a number of metals. • Dermal contact exposure and health risks for adults and for 1-year-old children were assessed. • Carcinogenic risks were considered as acceptable (<10{sup −6}). • For non-carcinogenic risks, only Sb exceeded a 10% of the HQ for dermal contact with clothes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium: Toxicity, levels in breast milk and the risks for breastfed infants

Metals are ubiquitous in nature, being found in all environmental compartments, and have a variety of applications in human activities. Metals are transferred by maternal blood to the fetus via the placenta, and exposure continues throughout life. For the general population, exposure comes mainly from water and food consumption, including breast milk. In this paper, we reviewed studies on the toxicity of arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium, the toxic metals of most concern to human health, focusing on the potential risks to newborns and infants. A total of 75 studies published since 2000 reporting the levels of these metals in breast milk were reviewed. Lead was the metal most investigated in breast milk (43 studies), and for which the highest levels were reported (up to 1515 µg/L). Arsenic was the least investigated (18 studies), with higher levels reported for breast milk (up to 149 µg/L) collected in regions with high arsenic concentrations in water (>10 µg/L). Data from 34 studies on mercury showed that levels in breast milk were generally higher in populations with high fish consumption, where it may be present mainly as MeHg. Cadmium levels in breast milk were the lowest, with means <2 µg/L in most of the 29 studies reviewed. Results of risk assessments indicated that the intake of arsenic, lead and mercury by infants through breastfeeding can be considered a health concern in most regions of the world. Although the potential risks to infants are mostly outweighed by the benefits of breast milk consumption, it is essential that contaminants be continuously monitored, especially in the most critical regions, and that measures be implemented by health authorities to reduce exposure of newborns and infants to these metals, and thus avoid unnecessary health risks. - Highlights: • Review of 75 studies that analyzed arsenic, lead, mercury and/or cadmium levels. • Higher levels of arsenic found in India; of mercury found in Brazil. • Lead was the most detected in the studies; cadmium levels were the lowest. • Risk for breastfed babies cannot be excluded for arsenic, lead and mercury. • Risks are unavoidable, and outweighed by the benefits of breastfeeding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Comprehensive multipathway risk assessment of chemicals associated with recycled ({sup c}rumb{sup )} rubber in synthetic turf fields

Highlights: • A human health risk assessment of recycled rubber in synthetic turf fields. • Youth athletes, as well as child and adult spectators, were considered. • For risk communication, a side-by-side comparison to natural soil was included. • Cancer risk and non-cancer hazard were below US EPA guidelines for soil and rubber. • For most scenarios, cancer risks were higher for natural soil fields. Thousands of synthetic turf fields in the US are regularly used by millions of individuals (particularly children and adolescents). Although many safety assessments have concluded that there are low or negligible risks related to exposure to chemicals found in the recycled rubber used to make these fields, concerns remain about the safety of this product. Existing studies of recycled rubber's potential health risks have limitations such as small sample sizes and limited evaluation of relevant exposure pathways and scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment

Risk assessment plays a vital role in protecting our nation's critical infrastructure. Traditionally, such assessments have been conducted as a singular activity confined to the boarders of a particular asset or utility with little external sharing of information. In contrast other domains, e.g., disaster preparedness, cyber security, food-borne hazards, have demonstrated the benefits of sharing data, experiences and lessons learned in assessing and managing risk. Here we explore the concept of a Shared Risk Framework (SRF) in the context of critical infrastructure assessments. In this exploration, key elements of an SRF are introduced and initial instantiations demonstrated by way of three water utility assessments. Results from these three demonstrations were then combined with results from four other risk assessments developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts. Through this comparison we were able to explore potential challenges and benefits from implementation of a SRF. Challenges included both the capacity and interest of local utilities to conduct a shared risk assessment; particularly, wide scale adoption of any SRF will require a clear demonstration that such an effort supports the basic mission of the utility, adds benefit to the utility, and protects utility data from unintended access or misuse. In terms of benefits, anonymous sharing of results among utilities could provide the added benefits of recognizing and correcting bias; identifying ‘unknown, unknowns’; assisting self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility; and providing a basis for treating shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Risk management for outsourcing biomedical waste disposal – Using the failure mode and effects analysis

Highlights: • This study is based on a real case in hospital in Taiwan. • We use Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as the evaluation method. • We successfully identify the evaluation factors of bio-medical waste disposal risk. - Abstract: Using the failure mode and effects analysis, this study examined biomedical waste companies through risk assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the supervisors of biomedical waste units in hospitals, and factors relating to the outsourcing risk assessment of biomedical waste in hospitals by referring to waste disposal acts. An expert questionnaire survey was conducted on the personnel involved in waste disposal units in hospitals, in order to identify important factors relating to the outsourcing risk of biomedical waste in hospitals. This study calculated the risk priority number (RPN) and selected items with an RPN value higher than 80 for improvement. These items included “availability of freezing devices”, “availability of containers for sharp items”, “disposal frequency”, “disposal volume”, “disposal method”, “vehicles meeting the regulations”, and “declaration of three lists”. This study also aimed to identify important selection factors of biomedical waste disposal companies by hospitals in terms of risk. These findings can serve as references for hospitals in the selection of outsourcing companies for biomedical waste disposal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods

Nonstationarities in both climate and socioeconomic systems play a role in flood risk. Based on a data-driven case study in an urbanized watershed subjected to nonstationary factors in climate (rain, snow, and rain on snow) and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., built environment market changes), a multi-scale, multi-model approach was adopted to develop local-scale flood hazard predictions and an analytical framework was developed to quantify the associated flood risk. The case study shows that socioeconomic development can have a comparable contribution as climate variability when evaluating the expected annual damage. Here, the relative contributions from socioeconomic development, in some cases, do not necessarily compound the risk, but can, in fact, act as a mitigating factor in annualized risk. Timelines of risk management planning are an important factor to consider. Socioeconomic factors such as market value can produce non-linear and reversed trends in flood impact assessments within the 10-year time frame. Further, the nonstationarity of climate and development conditions together was shown to cause up to 43% of the variation in risk estimates and up to 70% of the variation in the benefit-cost effectiveness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecological information and approaches needed for risk communication dialogs for acute or chronic environmental crises

Scientists, social scientists, risk communicators, and many others are often thrust into a crisis situation where they need to interact with a range of stakeholders, including governmental personnel (tribal, U.S. federal, state, local), local residents, and other publics, as well as other scientists and other risk communicators in situations where information is incomplete and evolving. This paper provides: (1) an overall framework for thinking about communication during crises, from acute to chronic, and local to widespread, (2) a template for the types of ecological information needed to address public and environmental concerns, and (3) examples to illustrate how this information will aid risk communicators. The main goal is providing an approach to the knowledge needed by communicators to address the challenges of protecting ecological resources during an environmental crisis, or for an on-going, chronic environmental issue. To understand the risk to these ecological resources, it is important to identify the type of event, whether it is acute or chronic (or some combination of these), what receptors are at risk, and what stressors are involved (natural, biological, chemical, radiological). For ecological resources, the key information a communicator needs for a crisis is whether any of the following are present: threatened or endangered species, species of special concern, species groups of concern (e.g., neotropical bird migrants, breeding frogs in vernal ponds, rare plant assemblages), unique or rare habitats, species of commercial and recreational interest, and species/habitats of especial interest for medicinal, cultural, or religious activities. Communication among stakeholders is complicated with respect to risk to ecological receptors because of differences in trust, credibility, empathy, perceptions, world view valuation of the resources, and in many cases, a history of misinformation, disinformation, or no information. Exposure of salmon spawning in the Columbia River to hexavalent chromium from the Hanford Site is used as an example of communication challenges with different stakeholders, including Native Americans with Tribal Treaty rights to the land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-247: Collision Risks in a Modern Radiation Oncology Department: An Efficient Approach to Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Purpose: Collisions between treatment equipment and patients are potentially catastrophic. Modern technology now commonly involves automated remote motion during imaging and treatment, yet a systematic assessment to identify and mitigate collision risks has yet to be performed. Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a method of risk assessment that has been increasingly used in healthcare, yet can be resource intensive. This work presents an efficient approach to FMEA to identify collision risks and implement practical interventions within a modern radiation therapy department. Methods: Potential collisions (e.g. failure modes) were assessed for all treatment and simulation rooms by teams consisting of physicists, therapists, and radiation oncologists. Failure modes were grouped into classes according to similar characteristics. A single group meeting was held to identify implementable interventions for the highest priority classes of failure modes. Results: A total of 60 unique failure modes were identified by 6 different teams of physicists, therapists, and radiation oncologists. Failure modes were grouped into four main classes: specific patient setups, automated equipment motion, manual equipment motion, and actions in QA or service mode. Two of these classes, unusual patient setups and automated machine motion, were identified as being high priority in terms severity of consequence and addressability by interventions. The two highest risk classes consisted of 33 failure modes (55% of the total). In a single one hour group meeting, 6 interventions were identified. Those interventions addressed 100% of the high risk classes of failure modes (55% of all failure modes identified). Conclusion: A class-based approach to FMEA was developed to efficiently identify collision risks and implement interventions in a modern radiation oncology department. Failure modes and interventions will be listed, and a comparison of this approach against traditional FMEA methods will be presented.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Introduction to risk assessment for materials safety and waste management P-400

Course Purpose: – To provide an introduction to the use of risk assessment tools and techniques for Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards (NMSS) activities – To provide an understanding of; • Why risk concepts are used in the NRC. • What risk methods are being used, and what should be known about these risk methods. • How risk concepts are applied, and how the application of risk concepts influences regulatory decision making.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.” The ability to better characterize (i.e., describe and quantify) safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design and long-term operation. A systematic approach to characterizing safety margins and the subsequent risk informed margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWRS Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs (and concurrently support technological advances in nuclear reactor fuels and plant instrumentation and control systems), needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety, economics, and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs over periods of extended plant operations. The goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method that is coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of risk-informed margin management strategies; (2) create an advanced RISMC Toolkit that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margins. The methods and tools provided by RISMC are essential to a comprehensive and integrated risk-informed margin management approach that supports effective preservation of margin for both active and passive SSCs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Integrated Risk Assessment Process for Digital Instrumentation and Control Upgrades of Nuclear Power Plants

Most of the existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the world rely on traditional analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems for monitoring, control, and protection functions. With the industrial base largely moving to digital systems, the operation and maintenance of plants involves managing issues including lack of needed analog spare parts, increasing maintenance costs, and the loss of vendor support. Compared with existing analog I&C systems, digital I&C systems have significant functional advantages, such as reliable system performance in terms of accuracy and computational capability, high data handling and storage capabilities to fully measure and display operating conditions, and improved capabilities (e.g., fault tolerance, self-testing, signal validation, process system diagnostics). Therefore, the U.S. nuclear power industry has initiated the replacement of existing, aging analog systems with digital I&C technology, and is developing new designs for advanced plants using digital systems in integrated control rooms to provide modern control and protection systems. However, the qualification of digital I&C systems remains a challenge, especially the issue of software common cause failure (CCF), which has been difficult to address. A CCF is the malfunction of two or more plant components or functions due to a single failure source. CCFs have the potential to generate unanalyzed events or sequences that may not be bounded by previous plant accident analyses, therefore, to challenge the plant safety. Existing analyses on CCF in I&C systems are mainly focusing on hardware failures. With the application and upgrades of new digital I&C systems, software CCFs due to design flaws have become a potential threat to plant safety considering most redundancy designs are using the similar digital platforms or software in the operating and application systems. With complex multi-layer redundancy designs to meet the single failure criterion, these I&C safety systems are of a particular concern in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing procedures. Therefore, there is a need to develop an integrated risk assessment strategy with digital CCF and plant transient responses considered to assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital digital systems and reduce uncertainties in costs, time, and support integration of digital systems in the plant. The overall goal of this project is to deliver a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure digital I&C technologies for the digital upgrades to existing NPPs. To deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, this technical basis is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed-up industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for digital I&C upgrades including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis; (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address CCFs and quantify responding failure probabilities for digital I&C technologies; (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level; and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced digital I&C technologies on NPPs. Upgrading digital I&C (safety and non-safety related) systems in existing NPPs within a cost-effective and regulatory acceptable way offers the foremost means of performance improvements and cost-reductions for existing NPPs. One key outcome of this project is to perform plant-specific risk assessment to provide a sustainable scientific support for enabling industry to balance the digital-related risks, costs, reliability, and safety.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Miscalculation, Misperception and Risk Reduction

In the current security environment, the most likely wars for which the US and its allies must be prepared are wars against nuclear-armed states. Such wars bring unique risks of both vertical and horizontal escalation. Some are “accepted risks;” for example, the US may choose to escalate a conflict to clarify its commitment to an issue and defend its interest. Other are “unacceptable risks;” especially, the risk of miscalculation by the U.S. or an adversary. The focus here is on this latter category. Miscalculation is an error of judgment—the failure to accurately assess a situation. Miscalculation can result from hidden, incomplete, or ambiguous information, or from inaccurate processing of available information because of bias, overconfidence, denial, delusion, etc. Miscalculation is related to misperception. For some, they are synonymous. This paper characterizes the risks of miscalculation and introduces a discussion of a risk mitigation strategy.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗