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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Model Study of the Sources of Upper Tropospheric Ozone Over The Atlantic, with Emphasis on Interhemispheric Asymmetries

Measurements of ozone and aerosols from ships transecting the Atlantic Ocean reveal considerable interhemispheric asymmetries in the vertical structure of the ozone distribution. There is much more upper tropospheric ozone to the South of the Equator than in the northern hemisphere. These profiles suggest that the air in the southern hemispheric tropics and subtropics has a source in the stratosphere, while that in the northern hemisphere originates in the boundary layer. A model experiment designed to investigate this problem will be discussed. They are based on a new general circulation model, based on a Finite-Volume dynamical core and the physical parametrizations from the Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model simulates a climatological state in reasonable agreement with observations, comparable to other contemporary climate models, but has a much more accurate transport capability than most other present-day models. The experiment involves using a suite of tracers, designed to highlight air from different source regions. Some of these (water vapor and ozone) represent real atmospheric quantities, while others are markers which indicate whether the air originates in the stratosphere, the boundary layer, or has traversed regions of convection (for example). The experiments were run for periods of up to one month, initialized from snapshots from a long climate integration of the model. A sample of results will be presented, chosen to illustrate the different sources of air in the upper troposphere and the physical mechanisms by which these air parcels arrived there.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Estimate of Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Variations of Cloud Radiative and Physical Properties with Sea Surface Temperature on Interannual Time Scales

Simulations of climate change have yet to reach a consensus on the sign and magnitude of the changes in physical properties of marine boundary layer clouds. In this study, the authors analyze how cloud and radiative properties vary with SST anomaly in low-cloud regions, based on five years (March 2000 - February 2005) of Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) -- Terra monthly gridded data and matched European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological reanalaysis data. In particular, this study focuses on the changes in cloud radiative effect, cloud fraction, and cloud optical depth with SST anomaly. The major findings are as follows. First, the low-cloud amount (-1.9% to -3.4% /K) and the logarithm of low-cloud optical depth (-0.085 to -0.100/K) tend to decrease while the net cloud radiative effect (3.86 W/m(exp 2)/ K) becomes less negative as SST anomalies increase. These results are broadly consistent with previous observational studies. Second, after the changes in cloud and radiative properties with SST anomaly are separated into dynamic, thermodynamic, and residual components, changes in the dynamic component (taken as the vertical velocity at 700 hPa) have relatively little effect on cloud and radiative properties. However, the estimated inversion strength decreases with increasing SST, accounting for a large portion of the measured decreases in cloud fraction and cloud optical depth. The residual positive change in net cloud radiative effect (1.48 W/m(exp 2)/ K) and small changes in low-cloud amount (-0.81% to 0.22% /K) and decrease in the logarithm of optical depth (-0.035 to -0.046/ K) with SST are interpreted as a positive cloud feedback, with cloud optical depth feedback being the dominant contributor. Last, the magnitudes of the residual changes differ greatly among the six low-cloud regions examined in this study, with the largest positive feedbacks (approximately 4 W/m(exp 2)/ K) in the southeast and northeast Atlantic regions and a slightly negative feedback (-0.2 W/m(exp 2)/ K) in the south-central Pacific region. Because the retrievals of cloud optical depth and/or cloud fraction are difficult in the presence of aerosols, the transport of heavy African continental aerosols may contribute to the large magnitudes of estimated cloud feedback in the two Atlantic regions.

Eitzen, Zachary A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-term Climate Change Through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM < or = 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5‑ and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

air quality↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Wheat Protein

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

grain protein↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of COVID-Global Shutdown on Earth's Radiation Budget

Climate is fueled by how much of the sun’s energy is absorbed by Earth. Changes in aerosol emissions have a direct impact how much solar energy is absorbed under clear-sky conditions, which occurs roughly one-third of the time globally. Aerosol emission changes can also indirectly influence clouds and further alter solar energy absorption. In this presentation, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global shutdown on Earth’s radiation budget at global and regional scales and compare it with other changes that have had an influence on Earth's radiation budget during the past 20 years—including policy-related emission controls, wildfire events and changes in sea-ice extent in polar regions. We use a novel analysis technique together with data from NASA instruments on the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites and reanalysis data from MERRA-2. We also compare results with state-of-the-art general circulation models that have been nudged to reanalysis data (winds, air temperature and surface 25 pressure) at all levels. Our preliminary results show that the largest COVID-19 impact occurs regionally over the East Asian Marginal Seas, just off the coast of China. We find a 30% reduction in aerosol optical depth according to the MODIS instrument, and an 8% reduction in reflected solar radiation according to the CERES radiation budget instrument. The climate model simulations show remarkable consistency with the observations and furthermore show no evidence of an indirect effect on cloud properties.

Norman G. Loeb↗
DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100 (Basin and Regional Scale)

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Xanthos Output Dataset This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 CMIP6 GCMs and 3 SSP-RCP scenarios. (1) 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 (2) 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The output variables in this dataset are aggregated to basin and regional scales. (1) Monthly runoff at basin scale (2) Annual accessible renewable water at basin scale (2) Annual actual hydropower production, hydropower potential, and exploitable hydropower potential at regional scale

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2021

Agricultural Breadbaskets Shift Poleward Given Adaptive Farmer Behavior Under Climate Change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Clouds Using Satellite Observations Through Three Generations of Global Atmosphere Models

Abstract Clouds are parameterized in climate models using quantities on the model grid‐scale to approximate the cloud cover and impact on radiation. Because of the complexity of processes involved with clouds, these parameterizations are one of the key challenges in climate modeling. Differences in parameterizations of clouds are among the main contributors to the spread in climate sensitivity across models. In this work, the clouds in three generations of an atmosphere model lineage are evaluated against satellite observations. Satellite simulators are used within the model to provide an appropriate comparison with individual satellite products. In some respects, especially the top‐of‐atmosphere cloud radiative effect, the models show generational improvements. The most recent generation, represented by two distinct branches of development, exhibits some regional regressions in the cloud representation; in particular the southern ocean shows a positive bias in cloud cover. The two branches of model development show how choices during model development, both structural and parametric, lead to different cloud climatologies. Several evaluation strategies are used to quantify the spatial errors in terms of the large‐scale circulation and the cloud structure. The Earth mover's distance is proposed as a useful error metric for the passive satellite data products that provide cloud‐top pressure‐optical depth histograms. The cloud errors identified here may contribute to the high climate sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 and in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Multiple GISS AGCM Hindcasts and MSU Versions of 1979-1998

Multiple realizations of the 1979-1998 time period have been simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GISS AGCM) to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM's lower tropospheric, tropospheric and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with the various Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) time series available. MSU maps of monthly means and anomalies were also used to assess the AGCM's mean annual cycle and regional variability. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced by observed sea surface temperatures (sst) through 1992 to gather rough standard deviations associated with internal model variability. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1979 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed ssts, greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols. stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The goal of narrowing gaps between AGCM and MSU time series was complicated by MSU time series, by Tb simulation concerns and by unforced climatic variability in the AGCM and in the real world. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.91 +/-0.16 globally with sst, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, stratospheric ozone forcings and tropospheric aerosols. Mid-tropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 +/-.04 globally and 0.84 +/-.02 in the tropics. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations similarly reached 0.61 +/-.06 globally and 0.79 +/-.02 in the tropics. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with mid-tropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.75 +/- .03. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern mid-latitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-sst variability. Zimbabwe had a maximum mid-tropospheric correlation of 0.54 +/- 0.11 while the U.S. Cornbelt had only 0.25 +/- .10. Precipitation and surface temperature performance are also examined over these regions. Correlations of MSU and AGCM time series mostly improved with addition of explicit atmospheric forcings in zonal bands but not in agricultural regional bins each encompassing only six AGCM gridcells.

Shah, Kathryn Pierce↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Physics-Driven Dynamic Entrainment-Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low-Cloud Simulation

The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability

Since the 1970s, air pollutant emissions controls in the United States (US) have lowered concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols, which have opposing radiative effects on surface temperature. Using a pair of initial-condition ensembles generated by a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, we simulate the “world avoided” by US air pollution controls. In this counterfactual world, we find tropospheric column O 3 increases, robust to natural internal variability, extending across the Northern Hemisphere. Robust aerosol increases, dominated by sulfate, remain localized near the US. Wintertime Northwest Atlantic cloud droplet number concentration is particularly sensitive to US aerosol. While an ensemble mean US surface cooling signal (−0.4 °C) implies that aerosol-driven cooling prevails over any O 3 -induced warming, we find that large regional internal variability will confound its detection in any single transient realization. Larger signal-to-noise ratios for composition versus climate variables underscore the greater detectability of emissions-driven changes in tropospheric composition compared to their associated climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observationally constrained analysis of sulfur cycle in the marine atmosphere with NASA ATom measurements and AeroCom model simulations

The atmospheric sulfur cycle plays a key role in air quality, climate, and ecosystems, such as pollution, radiative forcing, new particle formation, and acid rain. In this study, we compare the spatially and temporally resolved measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission with simulations from five AeroCom III models for four sulfur species (dimethyl sulfide (DMS), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), particulate methanesulfonate (MSA), and particulate sulfate (SO 4 )). We focus on remote regions over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern oceans from near the surface to ~12 km altitude range covering all four seasons. In general, the differences among model results can be greater than 1 order of magnitude. Comparing with observations, model-simulated SO 2 is generally low, whereas SO 4 is generally high. Simulated DMS concentrations near the sea surface exceed observed levels by a factor of 5 in most cases, suggesting potential overestimation of DMS emissions in all models. With GEOS model simulations of tagging emission from anthropogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, and oceanic sources, we find that anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of sulfate aerosol (40 %–60 % of the total amount) in the ATom measurements at almost all altitudes, followed by volcanic emissions (18 %–32 %) and oceanic sources (16 %–32 %). Similar source contributions can also be derived at broad ocean basins and on monthly scales, indicating the representativeness of ATom measurements for global ocean. Our work presents the first assessment of AeroCom sulfur study using ATom measurements, providing directions for improving sulfate simulations, which remain the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates in aerosol climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Shortwave Radiative Flux Response to an Injection of Sea Salt Aerosols in the Gulf of Mexico

We report marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed as a potential means of geoengineering the climate, temporarily providing cooling to offset some of the effects of climate change. Marine sky brightening (MSB), involving the direct scattering of sunlight from sea salt injection into the marine boundary layer, has been proposed as an additional geoengineering method that could work in areas that are not regularly cloudy. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to simulate MCB and MSB over the Gulf of Mexico and nearby land, a highly populated and economically important region that is not characterized by persistent marine stratocumulus cloud cover. Injection of sea salt in the Aitken mode from a region in the central Gulf of Mexico equivalent to 10.8 Tg yr -1 produces an upwards 8.4 W m -2 radiative flux change across the region at the top of the atmosphere, largely due to cloud property changes. Comparatively, a similar mass injection in the accumulation mode produces a 3.1 W m -2 radiative flux change driven primarily by direct scattering. Injection of even larger particles produces a much smaller radiative flux change. Shortwave flux changes due to clouds are largely driven by an increase in cloud droplet number concentration and an increase in cloud liquid water path (each contributing about 45% to the flux change), with a much lower contribution from cloud fraction changes (10%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. 1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? 2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? 3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? 4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

carbon dioxide↗
NASA NTRS2020

Convection Parametrization and Multi-Nesting Dependence of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Namibia with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Namibia is considered as one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change due to its generally dry climate and the percentage of its population that rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods. Early warning systems are an important aspect of adapting to climate change. Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction models and these need to be configured properly. In this study we investigate the effects of using multi-nests and a convection scheme on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over the Northwestern region of Kunene, Namibia. The event which was associated with a cut-off low system, was short-lived and resulted in over 45 mm of rainfall in one hour. For the multi-nest, a 9 km grid length parent domain is nested within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, which in turn forces a 3 km grid spacing child domain. A different set of simulations are produced using a single nest of 3 km grid spacing, nested directly inside the GFS data. The simulations are produced with the convection scheme switched on and off. The impact of a single versus multi nest is found to be small in general, with slight differences in the location of high rainfall intensity. Switching off the convection schemes results in high rainfall intensity and increased detail in the simulations, including when a grid spacing of 9 km mis used. Using a grid spacing of 3 km with the convection scheme on, results in a loss of detail in the simulations as well as lower rainfall amounts. The study shows a need for different configurations to be tested before an optimum configuration can be selected for operational forecasting. We recommend further tests with different synoptic forcing to be conducted to identify a suitable configuration for Namibia.

flooding↗