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At least 757 records · Page 42

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of the Effect of Framework Flexibility on Adsorption in SIFSIX-3-Cu using a Machine-Learned Force Field

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a promising class of adsorbents. The performance of MOF sorbents relies on high selectivity and low regeneration energy. This work focuses on the use of machine learned force fields (MLFFs) to model adsorption in a flexible MOF, SIFSIX-3-Cu. A DeePMD-based MLFF was trained to reproduce DFT (PBE+D3) energies, forces, and stresses, using an iterative sampling scheme combining sampling based on molecular dynamics, Monte Carlo, and geometry optimization to capture both attractive and repulsive regions of the potential energy surface. Flexibility of the MOF was explicitly included in this model. Hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics (MC/MD) simulations using the MLFF predicted adsorption isotherms in good agreement with experimental data for a range of pressures (40 Pa – 104 Pa) in contrast to rigid models, which overpredict CO2 adsorption at low pressures. The improvement was the result of a description of the variability of fluorine-fluorine diagonal distances at adsorption sites. This detailed description of flexibility afforded by the MLFF resulted in more accurate predictions adsorption isotherms when compared to the experimentally measured values. These results underscore the importance of including framework flexibility when modeling adsorption phenomena in MOFs, particularly for low pressure applications and provide a robust procedure for training MLFF models for MOFs.

Atomistic Simulation↗

Current-Source Solid-State DC Transformer Integrating LVDC Microgrid, Energy Storage, and Renewable Energy Into MVDC Grid

Solid-state DC transformer to integrate low-voltage DC (LVDC) microgrid, wind turbine (WT) generator, photovoltaic (PV), and energy storage (ES) into medium-voltage (MV) direct-current (MVDC) distribution grids is attractive. This paper proposes current-source DC solid-state transformer (SST) for MVDC collection system in WT, PV, and ES farms or as an interface between the MVDC grid and the LVDC microgrid. Compared to conventional current-source converter (CSC) based SSTs, a switch reduction scheme on reverse-blocking device bridges is proposed to reduce device count and the number of devices on the DC-link current path. Importantly, the proposed switch reduction scheme is generic and can be applied to the DC ports of DC-AC, AC-DC, or DC-DC hard-switching or soft-switching CSC-based SSTs. Based on this scheme, the proposed current-source DC SSTs are derived, which have reduced electrolytic-capacitor-less DC-link. The proposed DC SSTs also achieve single-stage isolated DC-DC or DC-AC conversion, full-range zero-voltage switching (ZVS) for main switches, zero-current switching (ZCS) for resonant switches, and controlled dv/dt. The proposed DC SSTs, operating principles, predictive control method, the ZVS, and the controlled dv/dt under voltage buck-boost ranges are verified with MV simulations and an experimental prototype based on SiC MOSFETs, diodes, and a nanocrystalline transformer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Theory of Ion-Mediated Segmental Localization, Activated Structural Relaxation, and the Glass Transition in Polymerized Ionic Liquids

Here we combine polymer integral equation theory for structural correlations with a force-level theory for activated segmental relaxation to construct a microscopic theory for how ions modify the onset of segmental localization, the polymer alpha relaxation time, and glass transition temperature, T g , in dry polymerized ionic liquids (PolyILs). Our most important findings concerning the behavior of T g are (i) a weak dependence on anion–cation Coulomb attraction strength due to strong decoupling of ion and segmental dynamics, (ii) strong reduction with increasing mobile ion size due to both plasticization effects and weakening of ion-modified monomer caging, and (iii) increase with backbone rigidity and intrachain dynamic cooperativity. We quantitatively estimate T g variations as ion size and polymer static and dynamic rigidity are widely varied. The experimental data of 19 PolyILs are organized into a specific pattern consistent with the theoretical predictions with glass transition temperatures varying over a very wide range (~250 K) as observed experimentally. Based on the theoretical results, suggestions are made concerning the search for high conductivity Li- or Na-based PolyILs based on further lowering of T g via new polymer synthesis. Calculations of the alpha time as a function of packing fraction reveal the dynamic fragility increases for larger mobile ions, a more flexible backbone, and/or a smaller degree of intrachain dynamic cooperativity, as a consequence of the increasing importance of collective elasticity in determining the activation barrier. An analysis of transient segmental localization and a crossover to activated dynamics reveals similar, but not identical, trends as predicted at the laboratory vitrification timescale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine learning-aided line intensity ratio technique applied to deuterium plasmas

It has been demonstrated that the electron density, n e , and temperature, T e , are successfully evaluated from He I line intensity ratios coupled with machine learning (ML). In this paper, the ML-aided line intensity ratio technique is applied to deuterium (D) plasmas with 0.031 < n e (10 18 m –3 ) < 0.67 and 2.3 < T e (eV) < 5.1 in the PISCES-A linear plasma device. Two line intensity ratios, D α /D γ and D α /D β , are used to develop a predictive model for n e and T e separately. Reasonable agreement of both ne and Te with those from single Langmuir probe measurements is obtained at n e > 0.1 × 10 18 m –3 . Addition of the D 2 /D α intensity ratio, where the D 2 band emission intensity is integrated in a wavelength range of λ ~ 557.4–643.0 nm, is found to improve the prediction of, in particular, n e , and T e . It is also confirmed that the technique works for D plasmas with 0.067 < n e (10 18 m –3 ) < 6.1 and 0.8 < T e (eV) < 15 in another linear plasma device, PISCES-RF. The two training datasets from PISCES-A and PISCES-RF are combined, and unified predictive models for n e and T e give reasonable agreement with probe measurements in both devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Calibration approach and range of observed sap flow influences transpiration estimates from thermal dissipation sensors

Calibrating thermal dissipation (TD) sap flow sensors has become increasingly important to accurately estimate whole-tree transpiration, but it is unclear how the calibration approach itself influences the resulting coefficients and estimates. Here, we compare the two most common calibration approaches, gravimetric and potometric, using TD sensors inserted into Eucalyptus benthamii tree stems. The gravimetric approach uses an excised stem segment devoid of branches and leaves and pushes water through the stem using gravity, a positive force. The potometric approach uses a severed stem containing an intact canopy placed upright in a reservoir where water is pulled through the stem via transpiration, a negative force. We hypothesized that the positive pressure associated with gravimetric calibration would overestimate conductive sapwood area relative to that estimated from potometric calibration and that coefficients from these different approaches would result in different estimates of transpiration when applied to intact trees. We also predicted that calibrations could improve transpiration estimates by targeting the range of observed sap flow rates (i.e., K values) in intact trees. Conductive sapwood area was higher under gravimetric calibrations and resulting estimates of transpiration were lower compared to potometric calibrations. Segmented calibration curves, which fit two separate curves for the relationship between sap flux density (Fd) and sap flux index (K) based on the range of sap flow rates observed in intact trees, increased transpiration estimates from both gravimetric and potometric coefficients and diminished the magnitude of difference in transpiration estimates between approaches. Researchers should be aware that calibration approach and range of observed sap flow profoundly influences transpiration estimates from TD sensors and this likely applies to calibrations of other heat-based sap flow sensors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

C3MechLite: An integrated component library of compact kinetic mechanisms for low-carbon, carbon neutral and zero-carbon fuels

Based on our latest detailed chemical reaction mechanism, C3MechV4.0, we have developed two reduced reaction mechanisms—C3MechLite and C3MechCore—targeting C 0 –C 3 chemical species including NH 3 . C3MechLite (61 species), contains a number of species comparable to GRI-Mech (53 species), that can accurately predict the combustion characteristics of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, ammonia, methane, natural gas, nitrogen oxides, and their mixtures for a wide range of conditions. C3MechCore (118 species) targets a more comprehensive range of C 0 –C 3 fuels, including ammonia, methanol, ethanol, and dimethyl ether. Both mechanisms demonstrate predictive accuracy comparable to C3MechV4.0 for the combustion characteristics of the target fuels. C3MechLite is designed with a component library structure, enabling further reduction in mechanism size depending on the fuel(s) of interest for 2D/3D numerical simulations. Various combinations of component libraries were validated, and the average prediction error remains within 1 % compared to C3MechLite. Furthermore, the mechanism was applied to 3D LES simulations of H 2 lifted flames and was confirmed to reproduce flame characteristics with high accuracy. C3MechLite and its component library structure enable high-fidelity and computationally efficient chemical kinetic mechanisms, paving the way for application in more complex combustion simulations.

Ammonia↗

Systematic feature design for cycle life prediction of lithium-ion batteries during formation

Optimization of the formation step in lithium-ion battery manufacturing is challenging due to limited physical understanding of solid-electrolyte interphase formation and the long testing time (∼100 days) for cells to reach the end of life. We propose a systematic feature-design framework that requires minimal domain knowledge for accurate cycle life prediction during formation. By only using two simple Q (V) features designed from our framework, extracted from formation data without any additional diagnostic cycles, we achieved an average of 9.87% error for cycle life prediction. Here, the physics-based investigation guided by the two designed features shows that the voltage ranges identified by our framework capture the effects of formation temperature and microscopic-particle resistance heterogeneity. By designing highly predictive, robust, and interpretable features, our approach can accelerate industrial battery formation research, leveraging the interplay between data-driven feature design and mechanistic understanding.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Toward observation of three-nucleon short-range correlations in high- Q 2 A ( e , e ' ) X reactions

Here, we present a detailed study of the kinematical and dynamical conditions necessary for probing highly elusive three-nucleon short-range correlations (3N-SRCs) in nuclei through inclusive electron scattering. The kinematic requirements that should be satisfied in order to isolate 3N-SRCs in inclusive processes are derived. We demonstrate that a sequence of two short-range NN interactions is the main mechanism for 3N-SRCs in such processes. With this mechanism we predict a quadratic dependence of the cross section ratios of nuclei to 3 He in the 3N-SRC region to the same ratio measured in the 2N-SRC domain. An extended analysis of the available data which satisfies the required 3N-SRC kinematical conditions is presented. This analysis reveals tantalizing signatures of the scaling associated with the onset of 3N-SRC dominance. The same data are also consistent with the prediction of the quadratic relation between the ratios measured in the 3N- and 2N-SRC regions for nuclei ranging 4≤A≤197. This agreement made it possible to extract a 3 ⁡(A), the probability of 3N-SRCs relative to the A=3 nucleus. We find a 3 ⁡(A) to be significantly larger in magnitude than the analogous parameter, a 2 ⁡(A), for 2N-SRCs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deep energy-pressure regression for a thermodynamically consistent EOS model

Abstract In this paper, we aim to explore novel machine learning (ML) techniques to facilitate and accelerate the construction of universal equation-Of-State (EOS) models with a high accuracy while ensuring important thermodynamic consistency. When applying ML to fit a universal EOS model, there are two key requirements: (1) a high prediction accuracy to ensure precise estimation of relevant physics properties and (2) physical interpretability to support important physics-related downstream applications. We first identify a set of fundamental challenges from the accuracy perspective, including an extremely wide range of input/output space and highly sparse training data. We demonstrate that while a neural network (NN) model may fit the EOS data well, the black-box nature makes it difficult to provide physically interpretable results, leading to weak accountability of prediction results outside the training range and lack of guarantee to meet important thermodynamic consistency constraints. To this end, we propose a principled deep regression model that can be trained following a meta-learning style to predict the desired quantities with a high accuracy using scarce training data. We further introduce a uniquely designed kernel-based regularizer for accurate uncertainty quantification. An ensemble technique is leveraged to battle model overfitting with improved prediction stability. Auto-differentiation is conducted to verify that necessary thermodynamic consistency conditions are maintained. Our evaluation results show an excellent fit of the EOS table and the predicted values are ready to use for important physics-related tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Diffraction properties of cylindrically bent KAP crystals in energy range of 2.3–7.5 keV using synchrotron radiation

Verification of physics models and computer simulations are heavily reliant upon the accuracy of experimental measurements. Calibration of instrument responses becomes an important step to achieve this goal. This paper presents systematic studies of bent potassium acid phthalate (KAP) crystals using Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories, Advanced Light Source, beamline 9.3.1 in the energy range of 2.3 to 7.5 keV. A set of KAP crystals, gradually bent from flat up to a 50.8 mm cylindrical curvature. The measured integrated reflectivity for this set of KAP crystals shows good agreement with the X-ray Oriented Program (XOP) calculations when adjusting the Debye–Waller temperature factor and using the multilamellar model in the calculations. Significant differences in rocking curve profiles were observed between experimental measurements and theory. A forward convolution model and software code were developed to include experimental parameters, allowing the investigation of the difference between measurements and calculations. After considering the experimental parameters, good agreements were obtained for the rocking curve profiles for all bending radii with a unique set of parameters. Our results show that XOP can be a useful and reliable tool to predict performance of cylindrically bent KAP crystals in this energy range.

Wu, Ming↗

Multimodal sensor fusion for real-time standoff estimation in directed energy deposition

In Laser Powder-based Direct Energy Deposition (LP-DED) systems, achieving consistency, precision and quality of produced parts requires tight control over printing parameters. One of the critical parameters is the standoff distance. Maintaining an optimal standoff height is crucial for achieving correct laser power density and powder catchment efficiency, as both laser and powder streams are focused at this distance. Here, this study introduces a novel approach using multimodal sensor fusion to predict standoff height in real-time. The proposed system integrates two low-profile, cost-effective sensors: an RGB coaxial camera and a high frequency and high dynamic range microphone. By utilizing a simple fully connected neural network, trained on a limited dataset, data fusion of these sensors allowed for the real-time prediction of the standoff height. The results demonstrate high resolution and accuracy of the predictions across multiple geometries and a wide range of standoff heights. This approach offers a simple, and cost-effective solution for real-time standoff height monitoring and lays the groundwork for future integration into commercial LP-DED systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effects of applied stress and grain size on creep-rupture lifetime prediction for Haynes 282 alloy

A multiple-heat set of tensile and creep-rupture data generated from a single laboratory was used to establish and evaluate predictive equations for the average creep-limited lifetime of an aged wrought Haynes 282 alloy using two different time- and temperature-compensated parametric models (those of Larson and Miller and Wilshire et al.). The range of temperatures and stresses used to produce the creep-rupture data used in the analyses revealed that two distinct regimes, above and below the proportional limit, were necessary for more accurate predictions of creep lifetimes over the range of conditions studied. Furthermore, a 2x difference in grain size amongst the three heats revealed a breakdown in the relationship between ultimate tensile strength and creep-rupture time, thus impacting the predictive ability of the Wilshire model. Finally, lifetime predictions based on the formulations from the respective models were compared to other available Haynes 282 datasets and found to reasonably replicate the experimental trends established in other studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MeV Gamma Rays from Fission: A Distinct Signature of Actinide Production in Neutron Star Mergers

Neutron star mergers (NSMs) are the first verified sites of rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis, and could emit gamma rays from the radioactive isotopes synthesized in the neutron-rich ejecta. These MeV gamma rays may provide a unique and direct probe of the NSM environment as well as insight into the nature of the r process, just as observed gammas from the 56 Ni radioactive decay chain provide a window into supernova nucleosynthesis. In this work, we include the photons from fission processes for the first time in estimates of the MeV gamma-ray signal expected from an NSM event. We consider NSM ejecta compositions with a range of neutron richness and find a dramatic difference in the predicted signal depending on whether or not fissioning nuclei are produced. The difference is most striking at photon energies above ~3.5 MeV and at a relatively late time, several days after the merger event, when the ejecta is optically thin. We estimate that a Galactic NSM could be detectable by a next generation gamma-ray detector such as AMEGO in the MeV range, up to ~104 days after the merger, if fissioning nuclei are robustly produced in the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Vapor–liquid equilibrium estimation of n-alkane/nitrogen mixtures using neural networks

Understanding fluid phase behavior, like VLE, in high P&T conditions is crucial for developing high-fidelity simulations of chemically reacting flows in liquid-fueled combustion systems and also forms an integral part of the design-modeling of the control processes in chemical industries. Two data-driven models have been proposed here in this study, each of which was competent in estimating VLE for the Type III binary systems of C 10 /N 2 and C 12 /N 2 , at pressures ranging up to 50–60 MPa. Both models showed better performance in predicting equilibrium pressure as compared to VLE modeled using PR-EOS. A modified model has also been proposed, capable of estimating the full phase envelope for the binary systems of C 10 /N 2 and C 12 /N 2 across a wide range of temperatures, and thus exhibit the mixture critical pressure at the concerned temperature. The diverse applicability of the proposed network architecture was further exhibited while estimating the VLE of a ternary system of C 1 /C 10 /N 2 .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Materials Characterization: A Primer for Solid Phase Processing Applications

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). As a two-year LDRD investment requiring focused research, the MCPC project applied only a subset of the wide range of available destructive and nondestructive characterization methods to provide data to the predictive modeling and data analytics tasks. The purpose of this report is to review a wide range of destructive and nondestructive characterization methods that are relevant in solid-phase processing (SPP) applications, but not necessarily applied in the MCPC Project as a guide to the planning of characterization activities in future research. Particular attention is given to measured characteristics that can correlate to other material characteristics, with a particular interest in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) that can be applied to samples obtained in the MCPC Project. Destructive examinations include tensile tests, optical and electron microscopy, micro-hardness, and residual stress tests. NDE tests include surface visual inspection, eddy current examination for cracks, 4-point potential drop, ultrasound, x-ray, and computed tomography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Vortex splitting in two-dimensional fluids and non-neutral electron plasmas with smooth vorticity profiles

Initially, elliptical, quasi-two-dimensional (2D) fluid vortices can split into multiple pieces if the aspect ratio is sufficiently large due to the growth and saturation of perturbations known as Love modes on the vortex edge. Presented here are experiments and numerical simulations, showing that the aspect ratio threshold for vortex splitting is significantly higher for vortices with realistic, smooth edges than that predicted by a simple “vortex patch” model, where the vorticity is treated as piecewise constant inside a deformable boundary. The experiments are conducted by exploiting the E × B drift dynamics of collisionless, pure electron plasmas in a Penning–Malmberg trap, which closely model 2D vortex dynamics due to an isomorphism between the Drift–Poisson equations describing the plasmas and the Euler equations describing ideal fluids. The simulations use a particle-in-cell method to model the evolution of a set of point vortices. The aspect ratio splitting threshold ranges up to about twice as large as the vortex patch prediction and depends on the edge vorticity gradient. This is thought to be due to spatial Landau damping, which decreases the vortex aspect ratio over time and, thus, stabilizes the Love modes. Near the threshold, asymmetric splitting events are observed in which one of the split products contains much less circulation than the other. These results are relevant to a wide range of quasi-2D fluid systems, including geophysical fluids, astrophysical disks, and drift-wave eddies in tokamak plasmas.

Physics↗