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At least 757 records · Page 42

Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

coronal mass ejections↗

Predicting Well-Connected SEP Events from Observations of Solar EUVs and Energetic Protons

This study shows a quantitative assessment of the use of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations in the prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. The UMASEP scheme (Space Weather, 9, S07003, 2011; 13, 2015, 807-819) forecasts the occurrence and the intensity of the first hours of SEP events. in order to predict well-connected events, this scheme correlates Solar Soft X-rays (SXR) with differential proton fluxes of the GOES satellites. In this study, we explore the use of the EUV time history from GOES-EUVS and SDO-AIA instruments in the UMASEP scheme. This study presents the results of the prediction of the occurrence of well-connected >10 MeV SEP events, for the period from May 2010 to December 2017, in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Crticial Success Index (CSI), and the average and median of the warning times. The UMASEP/EUV-based models were calibrated using GOES and SDO data from May 2010 to October 2014, and validated using out-of-sample SDO data from November 2014 to December 2017. The best results were obtained by those models that used EUV data in the range 50-340 angstroms. We conclude that the UMASEP/EUV-based models yield similar or better POD results, and similar or worse FAR results, than those of the current real-time UMSEP/SXR-based model. The reason for the higher POD of the UMASEP/EUV-based models in the range of 50-340 angstroms was due to the high percentage of successful predictions of well-connected SEP events associated with 10 MeV SEP events, improves the overall performance, obtaining a POD of 92.9% (39/42) compared with 81% (34/42) of the current tool, and a slightly worse FAR of 31.6% (18/57) compared with 29.2% (14/58) of the current tool.

Nunez, Marlon↗

Updating the Jovian Proton Radiation Environment—2015

Since publication in 1983 by N. Divine and H. Garrett, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s plasma and radiation models have been the design standard for NASA’s missions to Jupiter. These models consist of representations of the cold plasma and electrons, the warm and auroral electrons and protons, and the radiation environment (electron, proton, and heavy ions).

Evans, Robin↗

Lessons and Recommendations for Board-Level Testing with Protons

Protons with sufficiently high energy, provided in a broad field covering on the order of 0.1m2 can be used to perform board-level testing for single event effects (SEE). NASA has used this approach for board-level testing over the last 20 years. Although many difficulties inherent in SEE testing are simplified when using a board-level test, including reduced cost, the method is inherently risky because of the limited value of the collected data and the potential to make critical mistakes when performing SEE testing this way, leading to data of less value. Historically, NASA’s approach to proton board-level testing has been limited to lower criticality applications. However, with users both inside and outside NASA using this method for higher levels of mission assurance, we have put together a set of lessons and recommendations to improve the value of data collected using this method. Focus areas covered include test preparation, test execution, and interpretation of results.

Guertin, Steven M.↗

DDFRG: Double Differential FRaGmentation Models for Proton and Light Ion Production in High Energy Nuclear Collisions: Closed Form, Analytic Formulas for Transport Codes and other Applications

New models for Double-Differential FRaGmentation (DDFRG) cross sections for proton and light ion production from high energy nucleus-nucleus collisions are developed. The proton model employs thermal production from the projectile, central fireball and target sources, and also quasi-elastic direct knockout production. Light ion production cross sections employ a hybrid coalescence model. The models are able to describe a wide range of experimental data with only a limited set of model parameters. Closed form analytic formulas for double-differential cross sections as well as single-differential energy cross sections are developed. The analytic formulas enable highly efficient computation for space radiation transport codes and other applications.

John W Norbury↗

A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer for Moon / Mars Surface Space Weather Monitoring and Crew Protection (CEPS)

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces.​ The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Thermal testing results point to a needed design modification to mitigate high temperatures the detector will see in space. Radiation susceptibility testing was conducted to assess the radiation hardness of the CdTe-Timepix assembly. Overall, the assembly continued to operate up to 100 kRad of gamma-ray exposure. The system calibration did show drift over time but recovered once exposure was complete.

Dan James Fry↗

Proton Testing of AMD v1202b System on Chip

Single-Event Effects (SEE) testing was previously conducted on the AMD v1200 System on Chip (SoC) at Massachusetts General Hospital’s (MGH) Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center on May 28, 2022, using 200-MeV protons.

Edward J Wyrwas↗

Origin of High-Energy Protons Responsible for Late-Phase Pion-Decay Gamma-Ray Continuum from the Sun

Gamma-ray emission from solar eruptions can last far beyond the impulsive phase of the associated flares, and hence termed as sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE). These gamma-rays result from the decay of neutral pions produced when >300 MeV protons collide with hydrogen and heavier elements in the solar photosphere. The source of protons producing SGRE has two possible origins: (i) particles accelerated in the associated flare are somehow trapped in magnetic structures and diffuse slowly to the chromosphere, and (ii) particles accelerated at the shock front that diffuse back to the Sun. In this presentation, we compile currently available observations and inferences that support these two possibilities. We use the gamma-ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi/LAT) in conjunction with coronal mass ejection (CME) data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and type II radio burst information from the Wind spacecraft. We also use the GOES soft X-ray flare information.

Nat Gopalswamy↗

The Miniaturized Electron Proton Telescope, MERiT onboard Lunar Gateway

The Lunar Gateway or the Gateway, part of NASA’s Artemis program, is a space station orbiting around the moon The cis-lunar Gateway platform provides the opportunity for Heliophysics investigations to advance our knowledge of the coupled Sun-Earth system and the opportunity better understand the radiation environment in order to support and improve crew safety and operations at the Moon and beyond. The Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) is a suite of instruments place on the outside of the Habitation and Logistics Outpost ( HALO) monitor the Sun’s radiation environment and space weather. HERMES, led byNASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, will monitor lower energy solar particles critical to scientific investigations of the Sun including the solar winds. Additional suite of instruments provided by ESA, the European Radiation Sensors Array (ERSA) will complement space weather studies. We report here on the energetic particle instrument, the Minaturized Electron Proton Telescope (MERiT) on board HERMES designed to measure electrons and protons in the energy range ~0.3-9. MeV and ~1-190 MeV in 11 and 20 differential energy channels respectively. MERiT is a solid state detector telescope with the two sensor heads:one looking sunward and the other anti-sunward. MERiT will help advance our understanding of solar energetic particles, low energy cosmic rays and energetic electrons in the magnetospheric tail. We will describe the instrument in details and the science topics it is expected to address. Lunar Gateway is currently expected to launch in 2024

Shri Kanekal↗

Deflection of Solar Energetic Protons by an Ion Thruster

While Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) represent a long-term cancer risk to deep space human missions, Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) represent a significant acute radiation hazard to human spaceflight. This work investigates wave-particle interactions caused by the incidence of a beam of energetic protons, representing a notional SEP event, onto a cloud of ions representing a notional ion thruster plume. The resulting electromagnetic ion/ion instability is developed to investigate the degree to which energetic protons can be scattered out of the initial beam. This work includes investigations of deflection rate dependences on incident SEP energy and flux, ion thruster power and orientation relative to SEP incidence, plume ion species, and background plasma. Also investigated are the spectrum and angular distribution of electromagnetic radiation resulting from the wave-particle interactions. The primary objective of this investigation is to develop a technique for active mitigation of SEP radiation threats to spacecraft and crew, by exploring the wave-particle interaction of a SEP event with the plasma plume expelled from an ion thruster. Since the cost in expended fuel restricts this technique to intermittent use during interplanetary flights, effective prediction of when a SEP event might impact the mission is still important, and the observation of conditions that might lead to SEP events, human-in-the-loop space weather analyses, and development of SEP prediction models remain essential to crew safety, spacecraft function, and mission success.

Interplanetary Space Flight↗