Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probability distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42

Stochastic Distribution Control Theory-Its Potential Application in Risk Management in Financial Systems

Stochastic Distribution Control (SDC) theory [1], originated by the author in 1996, aims at developing modeling and control strategies for dynamic and non-Gaussian stochastic systems by controlling the shape of the probability density functions of some concerned variables and parameters in stochastic systems. It generalizes the capability of standard stochastic differential equations and can therefore be applied to generic non-Gaussian systems. Since it was established in 1996, it has found a wide spectrum of applications in non-Gaussian stochastic system control, data mining, filtering and optimization for uncertain systems. In this short opinion article, discussions will be made on potential applications of SDC theory to financial systems in terms of risk analysis and management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microgrid energy scheduling under uncertain extreme weather: Adaptation from parallelized reinforcement learning agents

Microgrids are useful solutions for integrating renewable energy resources and providing seamless green electricity to minimize carbon footprint. In recent years, extreme weather events happened often worldwide and caused significant economic and societal losses. Such events bring uncertainties to the microgrid energy scheduling problems and increase the challenges of microgrid operation. Traditional optimization approaches suffer from the inaccuracy of the uncertain microgrid model and the unseen events. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) - based approaches are also hampered by the limited generalization and the increasing computational burden when stochastic formulations are required to accommodate the uncertainties. This paper proposes a new parallelized reinforcement learning (PRL) method based on the probabilistic events to handle the microgrid energy uncertainties. Specifically, several local learning agents are employed to interact with pertinent microgrid environments in a distributed manner and report outcomes to the global agent, which will optimize microgrid energy resources online during extreme events. The stochastic microgrid energy optimization problem is reformulated to include all possible scenarios with probabilities. The advantage estimate functions of learning agents are designed with a backward sweep to transfer the outcomes to the value function updating process. Two simulation studies, stochastic optimization and online testing, are performed to compare with several existing RL approaches. Results substantiate that the proposed PRL method can achieve up to 20% optimization performance improvement with 4 and 28 times less computation cost than Q-learning with experience replay and multi-agent Q-learning approaches, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Three-state majority-vote model on small-world networks

Abstract In this work, we study the opinion dynamics of the three-state majority-vote model on small-world networks of social interactions. In the majority-vote dynamics, an individual adopts the opinion of the majority of its neighbors with probability 1- q , and a different opinion with chance q , where q stands for the noise parameter. The noise q acts as a social temperature, inducing dissent among individual opinions. With probability p , we rewire the connections of the two-dimensional square lattice network, allowing long-range interactions in the society, thus yielding the small-world property present in many different real-world systems. We investigate the degree distribution, average clustering coefficient and average shortest path length to characterize the topology of the rewired networks of social interactions. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the second-order phase transition of the three-state majority-vote dynamics, and obtain the critical noise $$q_c$$ q c , as well as the standard critical exponents $$\beta /\nu$$ β / ν , $$\gamma /\nu$$ γ / ν , and $$1/\nu$$ 1 / ν for several values of the rewiring probability p . We conclude that the rewiring of the lattice enhances the social order in the system and drives the model to different universality classes from that of the three-state majority-vote model in two-dimensional square lattices.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Resilience Metrics for Building-Level Electrical Distribution Systems with Energy Storage

The energy system infrastructure that delivers power to a building's loads needs to be resilient to withstand and recover from extreme outages (e.g., grid faults that leave millions of people without power during severe weather events). Building-level electrical distribution systems (BEDSs) distribute power from a building's energy sources - including the grid, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, and batteries - to its loads, including lighting, HVAC, and plug loads. BEDS with storage can provide resilience by distributing local electricity supply to critical loads during an outage. Quantitative metrics are needed to assess the resilience improvements associated with new BEDS and storage system technologies. In this paper, we apply an existing metric, the probability of outage survival curve (POSC), to BEDS with storage and propose novel metrics that improve upon POSC. Through a simulation-based case study, we demonstrate how these metrics are impacted by the BEDS design and how they can be used to design a resilient system.

buildings↗

Resilience Metrics for Building-Level Electrical Distribution Systems with Energy Storage: Preprint

The energy system infrastructure that delivers power to a building's loads needs to be resilient, such that it can withstand and recover from extreme outages (e.g., grid faults that leave millions of people without power during severe weather events). Building-level electrical distribution systems (BEDSs) distribute power from a building's energy sources - including the grid, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, and batteries - to its loads, including lighting, HVAC, and plug loads. BEDS with storage can provide resilience by distributing local electricity supply to critical loads during an outage. Quantitative metrics are needed to assess the resilience improvements associated with new BEDS and storage system technologies. In this paper, we apply an existing metric, the probability of outage survival curve (POSC), to BEDS with storage and propose a set of novel metrics that improve upon POSC. Through a simulation-based case study, we demonstrate how these metrics are impacted by the BEDS design and how they can be used to design a resilient system.

buildings↗

On the importance of color in mass spectrometry imaging

Mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) data visualization relies on heatmaps to show the spatial distribution and measured abundances of molecules within a sample. Non-uniform color gradients such as jet are still commonly used to visualize MSI data, increasing the probability of data misinterpretation and false conclusions. Also, the use of non-uniform color gradients and the combination of hues used in common colormaps makes it challenging for people with color vision deficiencies (CVDs) to visualize and accurately interpret data. Here we present best practices for choosing a colormap to accurately display MSI data, improve readability, and accommodate all CVDs. We also provide other resources on the misuse of color in the scientific field and resources on scientifically derived colormaps presented herein.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Top Coal Caving Methods at the Working Face of Extra‐Thick Coal Seams Based on the Random Medium Theory

Adopting an effective top coal caving method is the key to enhancing coal recovery and reducing gangue content for the fully mechanized top coal caving working face with extra‐thick coal seams. In this study, the movement of coal particles generated during top coal caving is considered to follow a normal distribution. Then, the caving body and coal‐rock settlement along the working face during the caving process are studied based on both the random media theory and probability theory. Accordingly, the optimal caving interval and caving sequences are determined, and a novel interval symmetrical coal caving method is proposed. The proposed method is systematically verified with results from physical similarity tests, and different caving methods are assessed by field tests. The results show the following: (1) The coal‐rock settlement and the caving body demonstrate clear axial symmetrical features along the working face; the size of the caving body increases as the caving height grows and its shape turns progressively from semicircular to semielliptical with a lower foot of the coal‐rock settlement. (2) The caving interval is derived using the sum of the radii of the coal‐rock settlement curves formed by the two largest caving bodies. (3) The symmetrical caving approach provides a symmetrical space for the subsequent movement of the broken top coal, which enables a uniform development of the caving body. (4) Compared with the traditional sequential coal caving method with the same number of supports, the interval symmetrical caving method results in a 21.7% of coal production increase, 17% caving rate promotion, and a shortened caving time by 23.4%. (5) The interval symmetrical caving method is found to improve the controllability of the caving process at the fully mechanized top coal caving working face. In general, this work presents a theoretical approach to select the optimal caving methods for the fully mechanized caving working face in extra‐thick coal seams for an improved production efficiency of the work face. The results of this study can also provide theoretical significance and referencing value for quantitative analyses of the coal caving methods for work faces with similar geological conditions.

Jiulin, Shi (ORCID:0000000155819062)↗

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

WaveDP

We developed a robust deep learning model designed to effectively reduce background noise and measure signal arrival times from seismic waveforms. This model processes a 57-second, three-component seismogram to predict the probability of Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves for each timestamp, while also generating a denoised seismogram. Training was conducted using the benchmark STEAD dataset, which includes globally distributed earthquake signals recorded at local distances ranging from 0 to 350 kilometers.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Transient cycling of nitrogen, organic carbon and oxygen within the free-flowing Columbia River corridor: Linking exposure time dependent biogeochemical reactions to river stage fluctuations (Final project report)

The objective of this project was to develop next-generation techniques for representing the transformations of complex reaction networks like those impacting transient river-corridors, then apply them to develop upscaling tools. The project contributed significantly to the development of Lagrangian “mass transfer particle tracking” (MTPT) tools that are the first numerical framework that explicitly separates mixing and spreading processes; a crucial distinction for accurate representations of reaction rates across scales. The MTPT approach uses an operator splitting scheme where physical transport processes are simulated using classical random walk methods and each particle is treated as a “container” that carries with it any number of chemical species. Mixing between particles is simulated using a colocation-probability based mass transfer kernel and reactions are evaluated on each particle after mixing. The method is stable, accurate, and also allows the explicit modeling of residence time distributions of the individual containers of mass. The MTPT scheme allowed us to explore several research questions related to reactive transport in river corridors and complex reaction networks. We found that it is possible to quantify the exposure time distributions (ETDs) of reactants and that this does suggest some pathways to upscaling. However, comparable approximations can be obtained using simplified (reduced dimensionality) MTPT simulations in less time with similar uncertainty, so development of extensive ETD-based methods was not productive. The major findings are that i) the MTPT schemes are robust and highly accurate across a range of arbitrarily complex reactions, ii) the methods can be efficiently parallelized and the parallel performance characteristics of MTPT are predictable, and iii) the MTPT tools allow simultaneous tracking of residence time. The development of these research tools into efficient software packages continues. The methods are already available to the community because open-source, working examples have been included with all publications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of supernova convection for the lower mass gap and the isolated binary formation of gravitational wave sources

Understanding astrophysical phenomena involving compact objects requires an insight about the engine behind core-collapse supernovae (SNe) and the fate of the stellar collapse of massive stars. In particular, this insight is crucial in developing an understanding of the origin and formation channels of the growing populations of detected black hole-black hole, black holeneutron star and neutron star-neutron star mergers. The timescale of convection growth may have a large effect on the strength of SN explosion and therefore also on the mass distribution of stellar remnants. We adopt new formulas for the relation between the pre-SN star properties and their remnants (Fryer et al. 2022) and check how they impact population of double compact object (DCO) mergers formed via isolated binary evolution. The new formulas give one ability to test wide spectrum of assumptions on the convection growth time. In particular, different variants allow for a smooth transition between having a deep mass gap and a remnant mass distribution filled by massive neutron stars and low mass black holes. We present distribution of masses, mass ratios and the local merger rate densities of DCO for different variants of new formulas and test them together with different approaches to other highly uncertain processes. We find that mass distribution of DCO mergers is sensitive to adopted assumption on SN convection growth timescale up to $m_1$ + $m_2$ ≲ 35$M_⊙$. Between two extreme tested variants the probability of compact object formation within the mass gap may differ up to ~ 2 orders of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Risk-Averse Approach for Distribution Grid Expansion Planning

Recent episodes of natural disasters have challenged the resilience of power grids. Adequate distribution grid planning that properly captures the risk aversion of the utility system planner is a key factor to increase the flexibility of distribution networks to circumvent these events. In this paper, we propose a methodology to determine the optimal portfolio of investments in lines and storage devices in order to minimize a convex combination between expected value and CVaR of operational costs, including energy not served, while taking into account the multistage nature of the energy storage management within this context. While the expected value of energy not served has been traditionally employed to tackle routine failures, we also minimize the CVaR of energy not served to address high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology with a 54-Bus system test case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric and magnetic dipole strength in 112,114,116,118,120,124 Sn

Background: There is renewed interest in electric dipole strength distributions for a variety of reasons including the extraction of the dipole polarizability related to properties of the symmetry energy and a measure for the neutron skin thickness, understanding the structure of low-energy $\textit{E}$1 strength in nuclei with neutron excess, and establishing the systematics of the isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR). Inelastic proton scattering at energies of a few hundred MeV and very forward angles including 0° has been established as a tool for the study of electric and magnetic dipole strength distributions in nuclei. Purpose: The present work aims at a systematic investigation of the electric and magnetic dipole strength distributions in the chain of stable even-mass tin isotopes. Methods: Inelastic proton scattering experiments were performed at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics, Osaka, with a 295-MeV beam covering laboratory angles 0°–6° and excitation energies 6–22 MeV. Cross sections due to $\textit{E}$1 and $\textit{M}$1 excitations were extracted with a multipole decomposition analysis (MDA) and then converted to reduced transition probabilities with the “virtual photon method” for $\textit{E}$1 and the “unit cross section method” for $\textit{M}$1 excitations, respectively. Including a theory-aided correction for the high-excitation-energy region not covered experimentally, the electric dipole polarizability was determined from the $\textit{E}$1 strength distributions. Results: In this work, total photoabsorption cross sections derived from the $\textit{E}$1 and $\textit{M}$1 strength distributions show significant differences compared to those from previous ($\textit{γ, xn}$) experiments in the energy region of the IVGDR. The widths of the IVGDR deduced from the present data with a Lorentz parametrization show an approximately constant value of about 4.5 MeV in contrast to the large variations between isotopes observed in previous work. The IVGDR centroid energies are in good correspondence to expectations from empirical systematics of their mass dependence. Furthermore, a study of the dependence of the IVGDR energies on bulk matter properties is presented. The $\textit{E}$1 strengths below neutron threshold show fair agreement in this work with results from ($\textit{γ, γ'}$) experiments on 112,116,120,124 Sn in the energy region between 6 and 7 MeV, where also isoscalar $\textit{E}$1 strength was found for 124 Sn. At higher excitation energies, large differences are observed, pointing to a different nature of the excited states with small ground-state branching ratios. The isovector spin-$\textit{M}$1 strengths exhibit a broad distribution between 6 and 12 MeV in all studied nuclei. Conclusions: The present results contribute to the solution of a variety of nuclear structure problems including the systematics of the energy and width of the IVGDR, the structure of low-energy $\textit{E}$1 strength in nuclei, new constraints to energy density functionals (EDFs) aiming at a systematic description of the dipole polarizability across the nuclear chart, from which properties of the symmetry energy can be derived, and the systematics of the isovector spin-$\textit{M}$1 strength in heavy nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Site-wide occupancy assessment using camera traps for seven mammalian species at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or Laboratory) is committed to solving national security challenges through scientific excellence and has been serving the nation and northern New Mexico for over 70 years. Being located on the Pajarito Plateau in the eastern flanks of the Jemez Mountains, the Laboratory is surrounded by a rich diversity of plants and animals. It is common to see many different species of wildlife on Laboratory property; however, sometimes interactions with wildlife can be negative. Vehicle accidents with wildlife have become a common occurrence. With the current and ongoing expansion of the Laboratory on the Pajarito Plateau, it has the potential to further impact wildlife movement including large game species. Local agencies and tribal Pueblos rely on large game species and do not want these species to be restricted from moving across property boundaries. Temporal and spatial aspects of where wildlife occur on the site is a phenomena that is either not well understood in uncommon species or needs periodic reevaluation for common species. Estimating the distribution of multiple species across the landscape provides wildlife biologists with crucial information for monitoring and conserving animal populations in a particular area. Utilizing motion activated wildlife cameras, also known as camera traps, to monitor wildlife populations has become an essential tool for biologists. Camera traps are non-invasive and cost-effective and can document multiple elusive or uncommon wildlife species, such as carnivores, simultaneously. Occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework for the analysis of the distribution for multiple wildlife species. It explicitly recognizes whether a species is spatially common or rare (occupancy = ψ) and if that species is easy or hard to detect (detection probability = p ). Multispecies and multi-season occupancy models can detect trends in species occupancy because individual species may vary in seasonal movements, detection probability, and transition rates between habitats. In this study, we assessed the site as a whole to ascertain when and where medium and large mammal species are present. Understanding wildlife patterns at the Laboratory will better inform future management decisions regarding land use and development strategies. We placed motion activated wildlife cameras in a random systematic sampling design and used these data to create occupancy models. We tested for differences in single-species occupancy and detection probability by season of mammal species captured on 20 camera traps placed across the Laboratory in a 40 mi² (103 km²) area. We focus the interpretation of our findings on seven mammal species found during this study. They are Rocky Mountain elk ( Cervus canadensis nelsoni ; hereafter “elk”), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ; hereafter “deer”), mountain lion ( Puma concolor ; hereafter “lion”), American black bear ( Ursus americanus ; hereafter “bear”), coyote ( Canis latrans ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), and gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ; hereafter “fox”).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗