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At least 757 records · Page 42

Impact of temperature variations on BISON predictions of Ag release in AGR-1 and AGR-2 experiments

Understanding and quantifying the release of fission products like silver (Ag) from TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles is important to assess the safe operation of advanced high temperature reactors. Although the silicon carbide (SiC) layer of TRISO particles is effective as the main fission product barrier, Ag can be released from intact TRISO particles. A mechanistic model for the effective Ag diffusivity, D eff , was previously developed as a function of temperature and microstructure variables informed by atomistic modeling of Ag diffusivity on the mesoscale. Here in this study, we use this model to explore how experimental temperature uncertainties impact the overall predicted Ag release. This analysis shows that temperature uncertainties have a significant impact on the overall Ag release predictions. Furthermore, we show that the time average volume average temperature (TAVA) temperature is not an appropriate proxy for temperature histories to predict fission product release. We attribute this to the Arrhenius dependence of Ag diffusivity with respect to temperature. The detailed temperature histories, therefore, provide the most accurate results are are of most importance for modeling efforts. Overall, this work shows the importance of considering the experimental uncertainty of the temperature on computational predictions of fission product transport and release and the need for more accurate temperature histories from future experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Convolutional Neural Network Model for Battery Capacity Fade Curve Prediction using Early Life Data

Herein, early prediction of battery performance degradation trends can facilitate research of new materials and cell designs, rapid deployment of batteries in real-world applications, timely replacement of batteries in critical applications, and even the secondary use market. In this study, we design a convolutional neural network model to predict the entire battery capacity fade curve - a critical indicator of battery performance degradation - using first 100 cycles of data (~ three weeks of testing). We use the discharge voltage-capacity curves as input to the model and automate the feature extraction process through the convolutional layers of the network. Our approach can predict the per cycle capacity fade rate and rollover cycle (knee point) in the capacity fade curve, which indicate the onset of rapid capacity decay. On the publicly available graphite/LiFePO 4 battery dataset, optimized networks predict the capacity fade curves, rollover cycle, and end of life with 3.7% (worst-case), 19%, and 17% mean absolute percentage errors, respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Dynamic force and stability prediction for milling using feed rate scheduling software and time-domain simulation

This paper describes: 1) the use of feed rate scheduling software to predict the radial depth of cut variation for three-axis milling toolpaths and; 2) the use of the radial depth profile in a time-domain simulation to predict dynamic cutting forces. The time-domain simulation, which also includes the tool tip frequency response functions and force model (which relates the cutting force components to the chip geometry) as inputs, enables dynamic force profiles to be predicted and parameter combinations that cause chatter to be identified. A ramp geometry is selected that provides constantly varying radial depth and force predictions are completed at multiple axial depths for comparison to measured forces. Both stable and unstable (chatter) milling conditions were observed with good agreement between time-domain simulation and measurement results. The value of combining the feed rate scheduling software and time-domain simulation is demonstrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based Wilshire model for creep deformation, damage, and rupture prediction

In this report, a new constitutive model is derived that combines the Wilshire equations with continuum damage mechanics (CDM) to enable the long-term prediction of creep deformation, damage, and rupture. The Wilshire equations have been demonstrated to accurately extrapolate the stress-rupture, minimum-creep-strain-rate, and time-to-strain of various alloys across decade of life. Recently, the time-to-creep-strain equation has been rearranged to predict creep deformation curves; however, the resulting equation is difficult to calibrate and does not track damage. The CDM-based Sinh constitutive model accurately predicts creep deformation, damage, and stress-rupture for a variety of alloys; however, it lacks an explicit description of stress and temperature co-dependence which limits interpolation and extrapolation ability. In this study, the Wilshire and the CDM-based Sinh equations are combined to create the “WCS” model. The WCS model combines the best features of each model while eliminating their deficiencies. Experimental data for alloy P91 is gathered and the WCS model is calibrated to the data. The WCS model accurately predicts the stress rupture, minimum-creep-strain-rate, creep deformation, and damage of alloy P91 across the experimental stress and temperature range as well as consistency in parametric simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Validation of EDGDE2D-EIRENE predicted 2D distributions of electron temperature and density against divertor Thomson scattering measurements in the low-field side divertor leg in DIII-D

Comparisons of profiles of the electron temperature (T e ), density (n e ) and pressure (p e ) measured with Divertor Thomson Scattering in DIII-D low-confinement mode discharges to predictions from the edge fluid code EDGE2D-EIRENE show that the models implemented in EDGE2D-EIRENE predict the measurements within their collective uncertainties if the T e at the separatrix (T e,sep ) is 10 eV, or higher. The simulations do not predict, however, the peaked T e and ne profiles measured adjacent to the target plate when T e,sep , is below 10 eV, i.e., for the plasma downstream from the region of ionization of deuterium atoms. Inclusion of cross-field drifts and a five-fold reduction of radial transport cannot reconcile the discrepancy between the measurements and predictions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cutting force and stability prediction for inserted cutters

Here, this paper presents an approach for inserted end/face mill force and stability predictions using a reverse engineering approach. Structured light scanning is implemented to identify the spatial coordinates of the points that define the multiple insert cutting edges. These points are analyzed to extract the cutting edge radius and angle values, which are then incorporated in a time domain simulation that predicts cutting force and tool/workpiece deflection for user-selected operating parameters. Good agreement between predicted and measured cutting forces is first demonstrated. The process stability is then predicted using the validated force model and measured structural dynamics. Observations about the stability dependence on insert geometry are finally presented for a selected end mill.

Machining↗

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting measures of soil health using the microbiome and supervised machine learning

Soil health encompasses a range of biological, chemical, and physical soil properties that sustain the commercial and ecological value of agroecosystems. Monitoring soil health requires a comprehensive set of diagnostics that can be cost-prohibitive for routine analyses. The soil microbiome provides a rich source of information about soil properties, which can be assayed in a high-throughput, cost-effective way. We evaluated the accuracy of random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) regression and classification models in predicting 12 measures of soil health, tillage status, and soil texture from 16S rRNA gene amplicon data with an operationally relevant sample set. We validated the efficacy of the best performing models against independent datasets and also tested best practices for processing microbiome data for use in machine learning. Soil health metrics could be predicted from microbiome data with the best models achieving a Kappa value of ~0.65, for categorical assessments, and a R2 value of ~0.8, for numerical scores. Biological health ratings were better predicted than chemical or physical ratings. Validation with independent datasets revealed that models had general predictive value for soil properties, including yield. The ecological profiles of several taxa important for model accuracy matched the observed relationships with soil health, including Pyrinomonadaceae, Nitrososphaeraceae, and Candidatus Udeaobacter. Models trained at the highest taxonomic resolution proved most accurate, with losses in accuracy resulting from rarefying, sparsity filtering, and aggregating at higher taxonomic ranks. Furthermore, our study provides the groundwork for developing scalable technology to use microbiome-based diagnostics for the assessment of soil health.

16S rRNA gene↗

Resampling and data augmentation for short-term PV output prediction based on an imbalanced sky images dataset using convolutional neural networks

Integrating photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by potentially large fluctuations in power generation. In recent years, sky image-based PV output prediction using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has emerged as a promising approach to forecasting fluctuations. A key challenge is imbalanced sky image datasets: because of the geography of solar PV system installations, sky image datasets are often rich in sunny condition data but deficient in cloudy condition data. This imbalance contrasts with the fact that model errors are dominated by cloudy condition performance. In this study, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the enrichment and augmentation of an imbalanced sky images dataset for two PV output prediction tasks: nowcasting (predicting concurrent PV output) and forecasting (predicting 15-minute-ahead future PV output). We empirically examine the efficacy of using different resampling and data augmentation approaches to create a rebalanced dataset for model development. A three-stage greedy search is used to determine the optimal resampling approach, data augmentation techniques and over-sampling rate. The results show that for the nowcast problem, resampling and data augmentation can effectively enhance the model performance, reducing overall root mean squared error (RMSE) by an average of 4%, or a 15 std. (standard deviation) of improvement compared to the variability of the baseline model. In contrast, the treatment RMSE for the forecast problem nearly always overlaps the baseline performance at the ± 2 std. level. The optimal resampling approach expands on the original dataset by over-sampling the minority cloudy data, with the best results from large over-sampling rate (e.g., 4 ~ 6 times over-sampling of cloudy images).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mapping the proteogenomic landscape enables prediction of drug response in acute myeloid leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia is a poor prognosis cancer commonly stratified by genetic aberrations, but these mutations are often heterogeneous and don’t always predict therapeutic response. Here we combine transcriptomic, proteomic, and phosphoproteomic datasets with ex vivo drug sensitivity data to help understand the underlying pathophysiology of AML beyond mutations. We measured the proteome and phosphoproteome of 210 patients and combined them with genomics and transcriptomic measurements to identify four proteogenomic subtypes that complemented existing genetic subtypes. We then built a predictor to classify samples into subtypes based on 147 molecular features and mapped them to a ‘landscape’. Each region of this landscape corresponded to specific drug response patterns. We then built a drug response prediction model to identify drugs that target distinct subtypes. We can ultimately use these models to predict drug treatment response and prioritize treatments. Finally, we extended our models and mapped a series of cell lines representing various stages of quizartinib resistance into our subtype landscape, predicting and experimentally validating a switch in sensitivity to venetoclax to panobinostat, two drugs with very different mechanisms than quizartinib. Our results show how multi-omics data together with drug sensitivity data can inform therapy stratification and drug combinations in AML.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Chemical-damage MINE: A database of curated and predicted spontaneous metabolic reactions

Spontaneous reactions between metabolites are often neglected in favor of emphasizing enzyme-catalyzed chemistry because spontaneous reaction rates are assumed to be insignificant under physiological conditions. However, synthetic biology and engineering efforts can raise natural metabolites' levels or introduce unnatural ones, so that previously innocuous or nonexistent spontaneous reactions become an issue. Problems arise when spontaneous reaction rates exceed the capacity of a platform organism to dispose of toxic or chemically active reaction products. While various reliable sources list competing or toxic enzymatic pathways' side-reactions, no corresponding compilation of spontaneous side-reactions exists, nor is it possible to predict their occurrence. We addressed this deficiency by creating the Chemical Damage (CD)-MINE resource. First, we used literature data to construct a comprehensive database of metabolite reactions that occur spontaneously in physiological conditions. We then leveraged this data to construct 148 reaction rules describing the known spontaneous chemistry in a substrate-generic way. We applied these rules to all compounds in the ModelSEED database, predicting 180,891 spontaneous reactions. The resulting (CD)-MINE is available at https://minedatabase.mcs.anl. gov/cdmine/#/home and through developer tools. We also demonstrate how damage-prone intermediates and end products are widely distributed among metabolic pathways, and how predicting spontaneous chemical damage helps rationalize toxicity and carbon loss using examples from published pathways to commercial products. We explain how analyzing damage-prone areas in metabolism helps design effective engineering strategies. Finally, we use the CD-MINE toolset to predict the formation of the novel damage product N-carbamoyl proline, and present mass spectrometric evidence for its presence in Escherichia coli.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge: Confronting blind predictions for the linear and nonlinear dynamics of a thin-walled jointed structure with measurement results

The present article summarizes the submissions to the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge announced in 2021. The task was a blind prediction of the vibration behavior of a system comprising a thin plate clamped on two sides via bolted joints. Both geometric and frictional contact nonlinearities are expected to be relevant. Provided were the CAD models and technical drawings of all parts as well as assembly instructions. The main objective was to predict the frequency and damping ratio of the lowest-frequency mode as function of the amplitude. Many different prediction approaches were pursued, ranging from well-known methods to very recently developed ones. After the submission deadline, the system has been fabricated and tested. The aim of this article is to evaluate the current state of the art in modeling and vibration prediction, and to provide directions for future methodological advancements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-driven model for divertor plasma detachment prediction

We present a fast and accurate data-driven surrogate model for divertor plasma detachment prediction leveraging the latent feature space concept in machine learning research. Our approach involves constructing and training two neural networks: an autoencoder that finds a proper latent space representation (LSR) of plasma state by compressing the multi-modal diagnostic measurements and a forward model using multi-layer perception (MLP) that projects a set of plasma control parameters to its corresponding LSR. By combining the forward model and the decoder network from autoencoder, this new data-driven surrogate model is able to predict a consistent set of diagnostic measurements based on a few plasma control parameters. In order to ensure that the crucial detachment physics is correctly captured, highly efficient 1D UEDGE model is used to generate training and validation data in this study. The benchmark between the data-driven surrogate model and UEDGE simulations shows that our surrogate model is capable of providing accurate detachment prediction (usually within a few per cent relative error margin) but with at least four orders of magnitude speed-up, indicating that performance-wise, it has the potential to facilitate integrated tokamak design and plasma control. Comparing with the widely used two-point model and/or two-point model formatting, the new data-driven model features additional detachment front prediction and can be easily extended to incorporate richer physics. This study demonstrates that the complicated divertor and scrape-off-layer plasma state has a low-dimensional representation in latent space. Understanding plasma dynamics in latent space and utilising this knowledge could open a new path for plasma control in magnetic fusion energy research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Toward a First-Principles Framework for Predicting Collective Properties of Electrolytes

Conspectus Given the universal importance of electrolyte solutions, it is natural to expect that we have a nearly complete understanding of the fundamental properties of these solutions (e.g., the chemical potential) and that we can therefore explain, predict, and control the phenomena occurring in them. In fact, reality falls short of these expectations. But, recent advances in the simulation and modeling of electrolyte solutions indicate that it should soon be possible to make progress toward these goals. In this Account, we will discuss the use of first-principles interaction potentials based in quantum mechanics (QM) to enhance our understanding of electrolyte solutions. Specifically, we will focus on the use of quantum density functional theory (DFT) combined with molecular dynamics simulation (DFT-MD) as the foundation for our approach. The overarching concept is to understand and accurately reproduce the balance between local or short-ranged (SR) structural details and long-range (LR) correlations, allowing the prediction of the thermodynamics of both single ions in solution as well as the collective interactions characterized by activity/osmotic coefficients. In doing so, relevant collective motions and driving forces characterized by chemical potentials can be determined. Here, in this Account, we will make the case that understanding electrolyte solutions requires a faithful QM representation of the SR nature of the ion–ion, ion–water, and water–water interactions. However, the number of molecules that is required for collective behavior makes the direct application of high-level QM methods that contain the best SR physics untenable, making methods that balance accuracy and efficiency a practical goal. Alternatives such as continuum solvent models (CSMs) and empirically based classical molecular dynamics have been extensively employed to resolve this problem but without yet overcoming the fundamental issue of SR accuracy. We will demonstrate that accurately describing the SR interaction is imperative for predicting both intrinsic properties, namely, at infinite dilution, and collective properties of electrolyte solutions. DFT has played an important role in our understanding of condensed phase systems, e.g., bulk liquid water, the air–water interface, ions in bulk, and at the air–water interface. This approach holds huge promise to provide benchmark calculations of electrolyte solution properties that will allow for the development and improvement of more efficient methods, as well as an enhanced understanding of fundamental phenomena. However, the standard protocol using the generalized gradient approximation with van der Waals (vdW) correction requires improvement in order to achieve a high level of quantitative accuracy. Simply simulating with higher level DFT functionals may not be the best route considering the significant computational cost. Alternative methods of incorporating information from higher levels of QM should be explored; e.g., using force matching techniques on small clusters, where high level benchmark calculations are possible, to develop ideal correction terms to the DFT functional is a promising possibility. We argue that DFT with statistical mechanics is becoming an increasingly useful framework enabling the prediction of collective electrolyte properties.

Duignan, Timothy T.↗

Physically Informed Machine Learning Prediction of Electronic Density of States

The electronic structure of a material, such as its density of states (DOS), provides key insights into its physical and functional properties and serves as a valuable source of high-quality features for many materials screening and discovery workflows. Still, the computational cost of calculating the DOS, most commonly with density functional theory (DFT), becomes prohibitive for meeting high-fidelity or high-throughput requirements, necessitating a cheaper but sufficiently accurate surrogate. To fulfill this demand, we develop a general machine learning method based on graph neural networks for predicting the DOS purely from atomic positions, six orders of magnitude faster than DFT. This approach can effectively use large materials databases and be applied generally across the entire periodic table to materials classes of arbitrary compositional and structural diversity. We furthermore devise a highly adaptable scheme for physically informed learning which encourages the DOS prediction to favor physically reasonable solutions defined by any set of desired constraints. This functionality provides a means for ensuring that the predicted DOS is reliable enough to be used as an input to downstream materials screening workflows to predict more complex functional properties, which rely on accurate physical features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗