Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “power modeling and estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42

Inference of experimental radial impurity transport on Alcator C-Mod: Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection

We present a fully Bayesian approach for the inference of radial profiles of impurity transport coefficients and compare its results to neoclassical, gyrofluid and gyrokinetic modeling. Using nested sampling, the Bayesian Impurity Transport InferencE (BITE) framework can handle complex parameter spaces with multiple possible solutions, offering great advantages in interpretative power and reliability with respect to previously demonstrated methods. BITE employs a forward model based on the pySTRAHL package, built on the success of the well-known STRAHL code [Dux, IPP Report, 2004], to simulate impurity transport in magnetically-confined plasmas. In this paper, we focus on calcium (Ca, Z=20) Laser Blow-Off injections into Alcator C-Mod plasmas. Multiple Ca atomic lines are diagnosed via high-resolution X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectroscopy and Vacuum Ultra-Violet measurements. We analyze a sawtoothing I-mode discharge for which neoclassical and turbulent (quasilinear and nonlinear) predictions are also obtained. Here, we find good agreement in diffusion across the entire radial extent, while turbulent convection and density profile peaking are estimated to be larger in experiment than suggested by theory. Efforts and challenges associated with the inference of experimental pedestal impurity transport are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sympathetic restraint of respiratory sinus arrhythmia: implications for vagal-cardiac tone assessment in humans

Clinicians and experimentalists routinely estimate vagal-cardiac nerve traffic from respiratory sinus arrhythmia. However, evidence suggests that sympathetic mechanisms may also modulate respiratory sinus arrhythmia. Our study examined modulation of respiratory sinus arrhythmia by sympathetic outflow. We measured R-R interval spectral power in 10 volunteers that breathed sequentially at 13 frequencies, from 15 to 3 breaths/min, before and after beta-adrenergic blockade. We fitted changes of respiratory frequency R-R interval spectral power with a damped oscillator model: frequency-dependent oscillations with a resonant frequency, generated by driving forces and modified by damping influences. beta-Adrenergic blockade enhanced respiratory sinus arrhythmia at all frequencies (at some, fourfold). The damped oscillator model fit experimental data well (39 of 40 ramps; r = 0.86 +/- 0.02). beta-Adrenergic blockade increased respiratory sinus arrhythmia by amplifying respiration-related driving forces (P < 0.05), without altering resonant frequency or damping influences. Both spectral power data and the damped oscillator model indicate that cardiac sympathetic outflow markedly reduces heart period oscillations at all frequencies. This challenges the notion that respiratory sinus arrhythmia is mediated simply by vagal-cardiac nerve activity. These results have important implications for clinical and experimental estimation of human vagal cardiac tone.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

A key element of achieving a sustained surface presence, such as defined in NASA’s Artemis plan, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU is the practice of using local resources to provide mission consumables that reduce system launch mass requirements, and regenerate resources (chiefly, water and oxygen) for propulsion and life support supporting both Lunar and Martian missions. ISRU systems require multiple complex processes, such as excavation, chemical reactors, and electrolysis subsystems that must operate in harmony to optimize the overall system process from beginning to end. The Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) was previously developed with MATLAB in FY22 to connect individual subsystem models into a customized, flexible framework for the purpose of technology downselect, optimization, and end-to-end process planning. Beginning in FY24, MAIT was updated and became the capital program in the Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) project. Prior work was leveraged and evolved using MATLAB/Simulink due to its ability to communicate with a vast number of other programming languages and makes up the backbone of data flow between inputs and outputs to the subsystem models. MAIT initially evaluated a suite of ISRU-related technologies, including the water processing Lunar Auger Dryer for ISRU (LADI) system with integrated upstream excavation and downstream electrolysis subsystems. With individual models consolidated, the MAIT tool generated over 5,000 cases during its first round of parametric sweeps on the water processing architecture at multiple production targets; the system analysis produced valuable insight into the optimal LADI geometry that minimized energy demands, estimated effects to cold trap size and radiator requirements, and calculated the power dynamics of the electrolysis unit and liquid oxygen storage volume. Additional efforts are being made to demonstrate the ability to scale ISRU technologies supporting the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s (STMD) commercialization strategy and increase the MAIT software capability. Work is ongoing to handle a wide array of ISRU system models beyond the Lunar environment, e.g. production of propellant for a Martian lander.

Avery Carlson↗

In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

A key element of achieving a sustained surface presence, such as defined in NASA’s Artemis plan, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU is the practice of using local resources to provide mission consumables that reduce system launch mass requirements, and regenerate resources (chiefly, water and oxygen) for propulsion and life support supporting both Lunar and Martian missions. ISRU systems require multiple complex processes, such as excavation, chemical reactors, and electrolysis subsystems that must operate in harmony to optimize the overall system process from beginning to end. The Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) was previously developed with MATLAB in FY22 to connect individual subsystem models into a customized, flexible framework for the purpose of technology downselect, optimization, and end-to-end process planning. Beginning in FY24, MAIT was updated and became the capital program in the Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) project. Prior work was leveraged and evolved using MATLAB/Simulink due to its ability to communicate with a vast number of other programming languages and makes up the backbone of data flow between inputs and outputs to the subsystem models. MAIT initially evaluated a suite of ISRU-related technologies, including the water processing Lunar Auger Dryer for ISRU (LADI) system with integrated upstream excavation and downstream electrolysis subsystems. With individual models consolidated, the MAIT tool generated over 5,000 cases during its first round of parametric sweeps on the water processing architecture at multiple production targets; the system analysis produced valuable insight into the optimal LADI geometry that minimized energy demands, estimated effects to cold trap size and radiator requirements, and calculated the power dynamics of the electrolysis unit and liquid oxygen storage volume. Additional efforts are being made to demonstrate the ability to scale ISRU technologies supporting the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s (STMD) commercialization strategy and increase the MAIT software capability. Work is ongoing to handle a wide array of ISRU system models beyond the Lunar environment, e.g. production of propellant for a Martian lander.

Avery Carlson↗

Heat Pipe Enhanced Thermal Management System for GaN Switches in an Integrated Modular Motor Drive for Aircraft Propulsion

This paper presents the process of sizing a heat pipe enhanced thermal management system (TMS) for GaN switches in an integrated modular motor drive (IMMD) powering a 250 kW aircraft propulsion electric motor. A test setup mimicking the TMS and GaN switches assembly is constructed. The condenser chamber of the TMS is modeled in ANSYS Fluent while the GaN switches assembly is modeled in ANSYS Thermal allowing us to verify heat spreader temperature under test conditions and estimate GaN temperatures under test and actual application operating conditions.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Deposition and dose from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

The downwind deposition and radiation doses was calculated for the tropospheric part of the ash cloud from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, by using a large cloud diffusion model. The naturally occurring radionnuclides of radium and thorium, whose radon daughters normally seep very slowly from the rocks and soil, were violently released to the atmosphere. The largest dose to an individual from these nuclides is small, but the population dose to those affected by the radioactivity in the ash is about 100 person rem. This population dose from Mount St. Helens is much greater than the annual person rem routinely released by a typical large nuclear power plant. It is estimated that subsequent eruptions of Mount St. Helens have doubled or tripled the person rem calculated from the initial large eruption. The long range global ash deposition of the May 18 eruption is estimated through 1984, by use of a global deposition model. The maximum deposition is nearly 1000 kg square km and occurs in the spring of 1981 over middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Peterson, K. R.↗

Granger Causality for prediction in Dynamic Mode Decomposition: Application to power systems

Here, the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) technique extracts the dominant modes characterizing the innate dynamical behavior of the system within the measurement data. For appropriate identification of dominant modes from the measurement data, the DMD algorithm necessitates ensuring the quality of the input measurement data sequences. On that account, for validating the usability of the dataset for the DMD algorithm, the paper proposed two conditions: Persistence of excitation (PE) and the Granger Causality Test (GCT). The virtual data sequences are designed with the hankel matrix representation such that the dimensions of the subspace spanning the essential system modes are increased with the addition of new state variables. The PE condition provides the lower bound for the trajectory length, and the GCT provides the order of the model. Satisfying the PE condition enables estimating an approximate linear model, but the predictability with the identified model is only assured with the temporal causation among data searched with GCT. The proposed methodology is validated with the application for coherency identification (CI) in a multi-machine power system (MMPS), an essential phenomenon in transient stability analysis. The significance of PE condition and GCT is demonstrated through various case studies implemented on 22 bus six generator system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electro-Thermal Simulation Studies of SiC Junction Diodes Containing Screw Dislocations Under High Reverse-Bias Operation

The objective of this work was to conduct a modeling study of SiC P-N junction diodes operating under high reverse biased conditions. Analytical models and numerical simulation capabilities were to be developed for self-consistent electro-thermal analysis of the diode current-voltage (I-V) characteristics. Data from GRC indicate that screw dislocations are unavoidable in large area SiC devices, and lead to changes in the SiC diode electrical response characteristics under high field conditions. For example, device instability and failures linked to internal current filamentation have been observed. The physical origin of these processes is not well understood, and quantitative projections of the electrical behavior under high field and temperature conditions are lacking. Thermal calculations for SiC devices have not been reported in the literature either. So estimates or projections of peak device temperatures and power limitations do not exist. This numerical study and simulation analysis was aimed at resolving some of the above issues. The following tasks were successfully accomplished: (1) Development of physically based models using one- and two-dimensional drift-diffusion theory for the transport behavior and I-V characteristics; (2) One- and two-dimensional heat flow to account for internal device heating. This led to calculations of the internal temperature profiles, which in turn, were used to update the electrical transport parameters for a self-consistent analysis. The temperature profiles and the peak values were thus obtainable for a given device operating condition; (3) Inclusion of traps assumed to model the presence of internal screw dislocations running along the longitudinal direction; (4) Predictions of the operating characteristics with and without heating as a function of applied bias with and without traps. Both one and two-dimensional cases were implemented; (5) Assessment of device stability based on the operating characteristics. The presence of internal non-uniformities, particularly filamentary structures, was probed and demonstrated; (6) Cause and physical origins of filamentary behavior and unstable I-V characteristics were made transparent; (7) It was demonstrated that diodes containing defects would be more prone to thermal breakdown associated with the temperature dependent decrease in the thermal conductivity; and (8) Finally, negative differential resistance (S-shaped NDR) which can potential lead to device instability and filamentary behavior was shown to occur for diodes containing a line of defects such as could be associated with a screw dislocation line.

Joshi, R. P.↗

Ballistics Model for Particles on a Horizontal Plane in a Vacuum Propelled by a Vertically Impinging Gas Jet

A simple trajectory model has been developed and is presented. The particle trajectory path is estimated by computing the vertical position as a function of the horizontal position using a constant horizontal velocity and a vertical acceleration approximated as a power law. The vertical particle position is then found by solving the differential equation of motion using a double integral of vertical acceleration divided by the square of the horizontal velocity, integrated over the horizontal position. The input parameters are: x(sub 0) and y(sub 0), the initial particle starting point; the derivative of the trajectory at x(sub 0) and y(sub 0), s(sub 0) = s(x(sub 0))= dx(y)/dy conditional expectation y = y((sub 0); and b where bx(sub 0)/y(sub 0) is the final trajectory angle before gravity pulls the particle down. The final parameter v(sub 0) is an approximation to a constant horizontal velocity. This model is time independent, providing vertical position x as a function of horizontal distance y: x(y) = (x(sub 0) + s(sub 0) (y-y(sub 0))) + bx(sub 0) -(s(sub 0)y(sub 0) ((y - y(sub 0)/y(sub 0) - ln((y/y(sub 0)))-((g(y-y(sub 0)(exp 2))/ 2((v(sub 0)(exp 2). The first term on the right in the above equation is due to simple ballistics and a spherically expanding gas so that the trajectory is a straight line intersecting (0,0), which is the point at the center of the gas impingement on the surface. The second term on the right is due to vertical acceleration, which may be positive or negative. The last term on the right is the gravity term, which for a particle with velocities less than escape velocity will eventually bring the particle back to the ground. The parameters b, s(sub 0), and in some cases v(sub 0), are taken from an interpolation of similar parameters determined from a CFD simulation matrix, coupled with complete particle trajectory simulations.

Lane, J. E.↗

Wind-Tunnel Tests of a 1/8-Scale Powered Model of the XTB3F-1 Airplane, TED No. NACA 2382

A 1/8 scale model of the Grumman XTB3F-1 airplane was tested in the Langley 7- by 10-foot tunnel to determine the stability and control characteristics and to provide data for estimating the airplane handling qualities. The report includes longitudinal and lateral stability and control characteristics of the complete model, the characteristics of the isolated horizontal tail, the effects of various flow conditions through the jet duct, tests with external stores attached to the underside of the wing, ana tests simulating landing and take-off conditions with a ground board. The handling characteristics of the airplane have not been computed but some conclusions were indicated by the data. An improvement in the longitudinal stability was obtained by tilting the thrust line down. It is shown that if the wing flap is spring loaded so that the flap deflection varies with airspeed, the airplanes will be less stable than with the flap retracted or fully deflected. An increase in size of the vertical tail and of the dorsal fin gave more desirable yawing-moment characteristics than the original vertical tail and dorsal fin. Preventing air flow through the jet duct system or simulating jet operation with unheated air produced only small changes in the model characteristics. The external stores on the underside of the wing had only small effects on the model characteristics. After completion of the investigation, the model was returned to the contractor for modifications indicated by the test results.

McKee, John W.↗

Physically-based control-oriented modeling for turbocharged stoichiometric spark-ignited engine with cooled EGR and flexible VVT systems

Accurate estimation and prediction of engine gas exchange system and in-cylinder conditions are critical for spark-ignited engine control and diagnostic algorithm development. In this paper, a physically-based, control-oriented model for a 2.8 l turbocharged, variable valve timing (VVT) and low pressure (LP) exhaust gas recirculation (EGR)-utilizing SI engine was developed. The model includes the impact of modulation to any combination of 10 actuators, including the throttle valve, compressor bypass valve, fueling rate, waste-gate, LP EGR valve, number of deactivated cylinders, intake valve open (IVO) timing, intake valve close (IVC) timing, exhaust valve open (EVO) timing and exhaust valve close (EVC) timing. The accuracy of the model in capturing engine dynamics was demonstrated by validating it against high-fidelity engine GT-Power simulation results for various drive cycles, particularly emphasizing elevated loads. In comparison to the open literature, novel contributions of the effort described in this paper includes in-cylinder gas composition modeling and turbine-out pressure estimation.

Zhang, Xu↗

Computing the Power-Density Spectrum for an Engineering Model

Computer program for calculating of power-density spectrum (PDS) from data base generated by Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) uses algorithm that employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to calculate PDS of variable. Accomplished by first estimating autocovariance function of variable and then taking FFT of smoothed autocovariance function to obtain PDS. Fast-Fourier-transform technique conserves computer resources.

Dunn, H. J.↗

A Nonlinear Direct Power Controller for a Three-Phase Grid-Connected Inverter with Online Parameter Update for PV Application

This work proposes a nonlinear direct power controller for a three-phase grid-connected inverter for photovoltaic application. Grid-connected converters for solar applications require advanced control architectures to ensure optimal operation and extraction of maximum power from the photovoltaic arrays. Therefore, to ensure this, a nonlinear power controller architecture has been proposed to extract the maximum power from the solar arrays and to achieve the most optimal operation. To further improve the performance, a parameter update scheme has been utilized which is based on model reference adaptive system. The latter helps to accomplish not only good dynamic response but also excellent tracking performance. The overall control come estimation architecture is verified based on computer simulations via MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS domain and various important case study results are presented.

direct power control↗

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks: Preprint

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classical state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method so-called pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2) is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one-year smart meter data of load consumptions for threephase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123 node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classical weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS, in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution systems state estimation↗

Technoeconomic Cost Analysis of NREL Concentrating Solar Power Gen3 Liquid Pathway

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is leading the liquid (molten salt) power tower pathway for the U.S. Department of Energy's concentrating solar power Gen3 initiative. The Gen3 liquid pathway required updated designs to three major components: the tower and receiver, the thermal energy storage tanks, and the power cycle. We assume a 100 MWe net system output and used the System Advisor Model (SAM) to complete a technoeconomic cost analysis of the Gen3 liquid pathway design and estimate its levelized cost of electricity. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of that analysis.

chloride salt↗

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Valuation and cost reduction of behind-the-meter hydrogen production in Hawaii

A 250kW hydrogen electrolysis facility was recently installed at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority's (NELHA's) campus. This facility that will begin operation in 2020 to produce hydrogen for fuel cell buses on the island to demonstrate of the application of hydrogen to decarbonize transportation. Given the size of the electrolysis station, it has the potential to significantly increase electricity costs for the campus, which is subject to energy and peak demand charges from the local utility. In this paper, we analyze the cost of hydrogen production at NELHA given the rate structure options available from the utility. Production costs are estimated using optimal versus constant scheduling of the facility to meet the buses’ demand. A model of the electrolysis station is used to capture changes in production efficiency over the power range in the optimization routine. The effects of combining the station and campus load versus standalone operation and increasing solar generation are also explored. The analyses surrounding this scenario show the importance of multiple factors on the potential profitability of hydrogen production in behind-the-meter applications and show trends that could have implications for other similar installations.

08 HYDROGEN↗