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At least 757 records · Page 42

Local Scale Radiobrightness Modelling during Intensive Observing Period-4 of the Cold Land Processes Experiment-1

The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in the spring of 2003 in Colorado, USA. Initial forward model validation work is concentrating on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8 ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. This paper will focus on the ability of forward Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) modelling, combined with snowpack measurements to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan s Truck-Mounted Radiometer System at 19 and 37 GHz during the 4th Intensive Observing Period (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike the earlier IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. Observations of upwelling and downwelling tree radiobrightness will be used to formulate a simple model for the effect of trees within the field of view. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo s Ground- Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7). These analyses will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Kim, Edward J.↗

Synchrotron self-Compton in a radiative-adiabatic fireball scenario: modelling the multiwavelength observations in some Fermi /LAT bursts

Energetic GeV photons expected from the closest and the most energetic Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide a unique opportunity to study the very-high-energy emission as well as the possible correlations with lower energy bands in realistic GRB afterglow models. In the standard GRB afterglow model, the relativistic homogeneous shock is usually considered to be fully adiabatic, however, it could be partially radiative. Based on the external forward-shock scenario in both stellar wind and constant-density medium, we present a radiative-adiabatic analytical model of the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) and synchrotron processes considering an electron energy distribution with a power-law index of $1\lt p\lt 2$ and $2\le p$. We show that the SSC scenario plays a relevant role in the radiative parameter $\epsilon$, leading to a prolonged evolution during the slow cooling regime. In a particular case, we derive the Fermi/LAT light curves together with the photons with energies $\ge 100$ MeV in a sample of nine bursts from the second Fermi/LAT GRB catalogue that exhibited temporal and spectral indices with $\gtrsim 1.5$ and $\approx 2$, respectively. These events can hardly be described with closure relations of the standard synchrotron afterglow model, and also exhibit energetic photons above the synchrotron limit. We have modelled the multiwavelength observations of our sample to constrain the microphysical parameters, the circumburst density, the bulk Lorentz factor, and the mechanism responsible for explaining the energetic GeV photons.

acceleration of particles↗

Reliability Stress-Strength Models for Dependent Observations with Applications in Clinical Trials

We consider the applications of stress-strength models in studies involving clinical trials. When studying the effects and side effects of certain procedures (treatments), it is often the case that observations are correlated due to subject effect, repeated measurements and observing many characteristics simultaneously. We develop maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the reliability which in clinical trial studies could be considered as the chances of increased side effects due to a particular procedure compared to another. The results developed apply to both univariate and multivariate situations. Also, for the univariate situations we develop simple to use lower confidence bounds for the reliability. Further, we consider the cases when both stress and strength constitute time dependent processes. We define the future reliability and obtain methods of constructing lower confidence bounds for this reliability. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate all the procedures developed and also to compare the MLE and the UMVUE.

Kushary, Debashis↗

Observational constraints on the models for Cygnus X-3

Observations of Cygnus X-3 made by the ANS and Uhuru satellites have shown significant X-ray flux variability on a time scale of hours. No spectral change was observed associated with these fluctuations. Significant intensity and spectral changes were found on a time scale of months with an inverse correlation between the source intensity and the temperature, and possibly the low-energy cutoff. The spectrum studies have confirmed the existence of an excess above the fitted continuum which can be interpreted as line emission of Fe XXIV and/or Fe XXV at about 6.7 keV. Phenomenological models for Cygnus X-3 are discussed; the observational data are best interpreted by assuming that a scattering and absorbing shell is symmetrically placed around the X-ray source.

Parsignault, D. R.↗

Static and dynamic loop models and their observational signatures

The magnetically closed regions of the outer solar atmosphere can be studied in terms of one dimensional hydrodynamic loops models. These regions include the bright plasma loops that are readily visible in EUV and X-ray images as well as the fainter, more diffuse-appearing plasma that surrounds them. The basic theoretical properties of static, steady state, and time dependent loop models are discussed, and these properties are related to observations of emission measure distributions and Doppler shifts. Both existing observations and future observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) are considered. In particular, the dependence of the models on the form of the energy input (coronal heating) is emphasized.

Klimchuk, James A.↗

The Martian Hadley circulation - Comparison of 'viscous' model predictions to observations

A comparison is conducted between the results of an analytical, steady, thermally-forced viscous model for the Martian atmosphere's zonally-averaged global circulation and observations of aeolian feature directions and atmospheric temperatures. While the observed northeasterly surface winds at high northern latitudes could be produced by possible CO2 fluxes from the northern polar cap, and southern latitudes' thermal structure during this storm is well reproduced, a major discrepancy is noted between predictions and observations of the middle northern latitudes' temperature structure.

Magalhaes, Julio A.↗

Radar observations and physical model of asteroid 6489 Golevka

We report 8510-MHz (3,5-cm) radar observations of the Earth crossing asteroid (ECA) 6489 Golevka (1991 JX) obtained between June 3 and June 15, 1995, at Goldstone, the Very Large Array and the Evpatoria (Ukraine) and Kashima (Japan) radio antennas.

Astroids orbits 6489 Golevka toutatis↗

Forcing a Global, Offline Land Surface Modeling System with Observation-Based Fields

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) drives multiple uncoupled land surface models in order to produce optimal output fields of surface states in near-real time, globally, at 1/4 degree spatial resolution. These fields are then made available for coupled atmospheric model initialization and further research. One of the unique aspects of GLDAS is its ability to ingest both modeled and observation-derived forcing for running global scale land surface models. This paper compares results of runs forced by modeled and observed precipitation and shortwave radiation fields. Differences are examined and the impact of the observations on model skill is assessed.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Observed and Bin Model Simulated Evolution of Drop Size Distributions in High-Based Cumulus Congestus Over the United Arab Emirates

This study examines microphysical processes in developing high-based cumulus congestus over the United Arab Emirates using aircraft observations and a large-eddy-simulation model with bin microphysics. A notable feature of this case is the lack of mm-sized drops despite having a liquid cloud layer >3.5 km deep, contrasting with copious large drops observed in maritime tropical cumulus congestus having a similar vertical extent. Modeled drop size distributions are similar to observations at various temperatures between 9.5 and –12°C, including the lack of mm-sized drops. Cloud dilution leads to low-to-moderate liquid water contents (~0.5–1.5 g m –3 ) in most of the cloud core, several times smaller than adiabatic values. Dilution is enhanced in the inflowing branch of the toroidal circulations associated with individual cloud thermals, which are favored regions for secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base). Secondary activation in general contributes substantially to the droplet population. Turning it off leads to a sharp decrease in droplet concentration and increase in mean size aloft, but does little to increase rain drop production. Warm rain generation (or lack thereof) in this case is therefore determined more by the sub-cloud aerosol and the cloud base droplet size distribution (DSD) than DSD evolution aloft from secondary droplet activation. Decreasing the aerosol concentration by a factor of 10 greatly increases production of large drops via collision-coalescence. Thus, despite its high base (low temperatures) and substantial dilution, the simulated cloud is thermodynamically and dynamically capable of rapidly producing copious mm-sized drops from collision-coalescence under pristine aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interrogating Solar Flare Loop Models with IRIS Observations 2: Plasma Properties, Energy Transport, and Future Directions

During solar flares a tremendous amount of magnetic energy is released and transported through the Sun’s atmosphere and out into the heliosphere. Despite over a century of study, many unresolved questions surrounding solar flares are still present. Among those are how does the solar plasma respond to flare energy deposition, and what are the important physical processes that transport that energy from the release site in the corona through the transition region and chromosphere? Attacking these questions requires the concert of advanced numerical simulations and high spatial-, temporal-, and spectral-resolution observations. While flares are 3D phenomenon, simulating the NLTE flaring chromosphere in 3D and performing parameter studies of 3D models is largely outwith our current computational capabilities. We instead rely on state-of-the-art 1D field-aligned simulations to study the physical processes that govern flares. Over the last decade, data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) have provided the crucial observations with which we can critically interrogate the predictions of those flare loop models. Here in Paper 2 of a two-part review of IRIS and flare loop models, I discuss how forward modelling flares can help us understand the observations from IRIS, and how IRIS can reveal where our models do well and where we are likely missing important processes, focussing in particular on the plasma properties, energy transport mechanisms, and future directions of flare modelling.

solar flares↗

Evaluation of the CAM6 Climate Model Using Cloud Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

A comparative analysis between observational data from McMurdo Station, Antarctica and the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) simulation is performed focusing on cloud characteristics and their thermodynamic conditions. Ka-band Zenith Radar (KAZR) and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) retrievals are used as the basis of cloud fraction and cloud phase identifications. Radiosondes released at 12-hour increments provide atmospheric profiles for evaluating the simulated thermodynamic conditions. Our findings show that the CAM6 simulation consistently overestimates (underestimates) cloud fraction above (below) 3 km in four seasons of a year. Normalized by total in-cloud samples, ice and mixed phase occurrence frequencies are underestimated and liquid phase frequency is overestimated by the model at cloud fractions above 0.6, while at cloud fractions below 0.6 ice phase frequency is overestimated and liquid-containing phase frequency is underestimated by the model. The cloud fraction biases are closely associated with concurrent biases in relative humidity (RH), i.e., high (low) RH biases above (below) 2 km. Frequencies of correctly simulating ice and liquid-containing phase increase when the absolute biases of RH decrease. Cloud fraction biases also show a positive correlation with RH biases. Water vapor mixing ratio biases are the primary contributor to RH biases, and hence, likely a key factor controlling the cloud biases. Finally, this diagnosis of the evident shortfalls of representations of cloud characteristics in CAM6 simulation at McMurdo Station brings new insight in improving the governing model physics therein.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying Chemical and Optical Smoke Signatures in Suborbital Observations to Improve Model Projections

Biomass Burning (BB) fires are expected to occur more frequently in the future due to climate change, the build‐up of fuels due to fire suppression, and the expansion of the wildland‐urban interface [Schoennagel et al., 2017; Shivdenko & Schepaschenko, 2013; Stevens et al., 2014; Turner et al., 2019; Yue et al., 2015; Tilman et al., 2001]. Accurate knowledge of the abundance, distribution, and optical properties of absorbing aerosols such as BB smoke is essential to understanding regional and global aerosol radiative effects [Boucher et al., 2013]. It is recognized that differing fuel types (e.g., rice straw, ponderosa pine), combustion modes (i.e., flaming, smoldering or both) and temperature/ moisture content produce smoke with differing optical characteristics (e.g., aerosol light scattering and absorption) and component mixing ratios [e.g., BC, OC and inorganic species such as sulfate, potassium, chloride; Streets et al. 2003; Reid et al., 2005a, b; Janhäll et al., 2010; Sayer et al., 2014]. However, climate models often ascribe a fixed set of emission factors [i.e., amount of particulate for a given species released in the atmosphere per unit dry fuel burned; Darmenov and Dasilva, 2013] and optical properties [Hess et al., 1998] to all BB aerosol plumes, inherently limiting accurate representation of the global and regional heterogeneity of BB. The overarching goal of the proposed work is to improve the microphysical and optical representation of different types of Biomass Burning in Chemistry Transport Models. Our strategy is to capitalize on multiple airborne campaigns (e.g., ARCTAS, SEAC4RS, ORACLES, FIREX-AQ), which sampled different types of BB plumes at different aging stages. Models, when improved and combined with satellite, airborne, and ground observations will help address many aerosol science objectives from the NASA Decadal survey [National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018].

Meloe Shenandoah F Kacenelenbogen↗

Evaluating Clouds in Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with Observational Data

Two 20-day, continental midlatitude cases are simulated with a three-dimensional (3D) cloud-resolving model (CRM) and compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data. This evaluation of long-term cloud-resolving model simulations focuses on the evaluation of clouds and surface fluxes. All numerical experiments, as compared to observations, simulate surface precipitation well but over-predict clouds, especially in the upper troposphere. The sensitivity of cloud properties to dimensionality and other factors is studied to isolate the origins of the over prediction of clouds. Due to the difference in buoyancy damping between 2D and 3D models, surface precipitation fluctuates rapidly with time, and spurious dehumidification occurs near the tropopause in the 2D CRM. Surface fluxes from a land data assimilation system are compared with ARM observations. They are used in place of the ARM surface fluxes to test the sensitivity of simulated clouds to surface fluxes. Summertime simulations show that surface fluxes from the assimilation system bring about a better simulation of diurnal cloud variation in the lower troposphere.

Zeng, Xiping↗

Grain Formation around the AGB Star L2 Puppis Based On ALMA Observations

While models of grain formation in the outflows of carbon-rich stars have been relatively successful, models of outflows from oxygen-rich, asymptotic giant branch stars have been less fortunate. Under current modeling, it is difficult to produce sufficient amounts of silicate grains with high enough opacity to form a dust-driven wind from these stars. To investigate the cause of this difference, this work is a comparison between typical outflow model results and a model using input from Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array observations of L2Puppis. The temperatures from these observations are much lower than would typically be used in the standard outflow model. In addition, the observed gas densities are much higher than predicted from typical outflow models. Both of these differences make the formation of silicate grains much more favorable than predicted in current outflow models. We then explore the effects of other possible nonideal conditions including the efficiency of cluster growth prior to nucleation, the efficiency of grain growth following nucleation and the variation of grain coupling to stellar radiation during grain growth. Finally, we calculate the potential enhancement in grain production based on possible increased refractory abundances resulting from the vaporization of millimeter-scale and larger particles left over from the presence of a former planetary system.

Joseph A Nuth↗

IRAS high resolution studies and modeling of closely interacting galaxies. Galaxy collisions: Infrared observations and analysis of numerical models. UV spectroscopy of massive young stellar populations in interacting galaxies

The Final Technical Report covering the period from 15 Aug. 1989 to 14 Aug. 1991 is presented. Areas of research included Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) high resolution studies and modeling of closely interacting galaxies; galaxy collisions: infrared observations and analysis of numerical models; and UV spectroscopy of massive young stellar populations in interacting galaxies. Both observational studies and theoretical modelling of interacting galaxies are covered. As a consequence the report is divided into two parts, one on each aspect of the overall project.

Lamb, Susan A.↗

A model of the human observer in failure detection tasks

A model for the human observer in failure detection tasks is proposed which consists of two stages: a linear estimator and a decision mechanism. The estimator is a Kalman filter, and the decision mechanism, which is based on Wald's sequential analysis, leads to a decision function which is the integration of the filter residuals. The final result is a simple detection system which depends on only three parameters, and the sensitivity of the model to these parameters is analyzed. The results of an experiment designed to test the validity of the model are reported. The question of open and closed decision intervals as well as the generalization of the model to more complicated cases is discussed.

Gai, E. G.↗