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Production of long-term global water vapor and liquid water data set using ultra-fast methods to assimilate multi-satellite and radiosonde observations

During the next decade, many programs and experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) will utilize present day and future data sets to improve our understanding of the role of moisture in climate, and its interaction with other variables such as clouds and radiation. An important element of GEWEX will be the GEWEX Water Vapor Project (GVaP), which will eventually initiate a routine, real-time assimilation of the highest quality, global water vapor data sets including information gained from future data collection systems, both ground and space based. The comprehensive global water vapor data set being produced by METSAT Inc. uses a combination of ground-based radiosonde data, and infrared and microwave satellite retrievals. This data is needed to provide the desired foundation from which future GEWEX-related research, such as GVaP, can build. The first year of this project was designed to use a combination of the best available atmospheric moisture data including: radiosonde (balloon/acft/rocket), HIRS/MSU (TOVS) retrievals, and SSM/I retrievals, to produce a one-year, global, high resolution data set of integrated column water vapor (precipitable water) with a horizontal resolution of 1 degree, and a temporal resolution of one day. The time period of this pilot product was to be det3ermined by the availability of all the input data sets. January 1988 through December 1988 were selected. In addition, a sample of vertically integrated liquid water content (LWC) was to be produced with the same temporal and spatial parameters. This sample was to be produced over ocean areas only. Three main steps are followed to produce a merged water vapor and liquid water product. Input data from Radiosondes, TOVS, and SSMI/I is quality checked in steps one and two. Processing is done in step two to generate individual total column water vapor and liquid water data sets. The third step, and final processing task, involves merging the individual output products to produce the integrated water vapor product. A final quality control is applied to the merged data sets.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

New upper limits on the local metagalactic ionizing radiation density

We have obtained H-alpha observations with the Maryland-Caltech Fabry-Perot Spectrometer attached to the Cassegrain focus of the 1.5 m telescope at Palomer Observatory in order to set limits on the number of ionizing photons from the local metagalactic radiation field. We have observed the SW component of the Haynes-Giovanelli cloud H I 1225+01, an intergalactic cloud which should be optimum for measuring the metagalactic flux because it is nearly opaque to ionizing photons, it does not appear to be significantly shielded from the metagalactic radiation field, and the limits on embedded or nearby ionizing sources are unusually low. For the area of the cloud with an H I column density greater than 10(exp 19)/sq cm we set a 2 sigma limit of 1.1 x 10(exp -19) ergs/sq cm/s/sq arcsec (20 mR) for the surface brightness of diffuse H-alpha. This implies a 2 sigma upper limit on the incident one-sided ionizing flux of Phi(sub ex) is less than 3 x 10(exp 4)/sq cm/s. For a radiation field of the form J(sub nu) is approximately nu(exp -1.4), this yields a firm 2 sigma upper limit on the local metagalactic photoionization rate of Gamma is less than 2 x 10(exp -13)/s, and an upper limit for the radiation field J(sub nu) at the Lyman limit of J(sub nu0) is less than 8 x 10(exp -23) ergs/sq cm/Hz/sr. We discuss previous efforts to constrain the metagalactic ionizing flux using H-alpha surface brightness observations and also other methods, and conclude that our result places the firmest upper limit on this flux. We also observed the 7 min diameter region centered on 3C 273 in which H-alpha emission at a velocity of approximately 1700 km/s was initially reported by Williams and Schommer. In agreement with T. B. Williams (private communication) we find the initial detection was spurious. We obtain a 2 sigma upper limit of 1.8 x 10(exp -19) ergs/sq cm/s/sq arcsec (32 mR) for the mean surface brightness of diffuse H-alpha, about a factor of 6 below the published value.

Vogel, Stuart N.↗

A Table-Driven Control Method to Meet Continuous, Near-Real-Time Observation Requirements for the Solar X-Ray Imager

The design of the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) presents an unusual scenario for controlling the observing sequences. The SXI is an operational instrument, designed not primarily for scientific research, but for providing "operational" data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to forecast the near-term space weather. To this end, a sequence of images selected to cover the full dynamic range of the sun will be executed routinely. As the dynamics of the sun have differing temporal cadences, the frequency of various images will differ. These images must be routinely received at the forecast center in near real-time, 24-hours a day, with a minimum of interruptions. While these requirements clearly lead to a 'routine patrol' of images, the parameters for each do not form a static set. The dynamics of the sun will change with the I 1-year solar cycle. The performance of the imaging will vary with on-orbit conditions and time. And while the SXI is not intended as a research instrument, forecasting techniques may change with time, which in turn will further alter the imaging sequences. An additional complication is the highly restricted commanding window, and a very slow commanding rate. To fulfill these requirements, the SXI was designed to utilize a table-driven approach. Sequences are defined using structured loops, with nested repetitions and delays. These sequences reference combinations of imaging parameters which in turn reference tables of parameters than can be loaded by ground commands. Multiple sequences can be built and stored in preparation for execution when determined appropriate by the NOAA forecasters. The result is an approach that can be used to provide a flexible, yet autonomous SXI capable of meeting both arbitrary forecasting requirements, and operating within the commanding constraints.

Wallace, Shawn↗

A New Method of Absorption-Phase Nanotomography for 3D Observation of Mineral-Organic-Water Textiles and its Application to Pristine Carbonaceous Chondrites

Pristine carbonaceous chondrites contain fine-grained matrix, which is composed largely of amorphous silicates, sub-micron silicate and sulfide crystals, and organic materials. They are regarded as primitive dust in the early Solar System that have suffered minimal alteration in their parent bodies. The matrix generally has different lithologies; some of them are unaltered but some are more or less aqueously altered. Their textures have been examined in 2D usually by FE-SEM/EDS, TEM/EDS, nano-SIMS and micro-XRD. Observation of their complex fine textures, such as spatial relation between different lithologies in 3D, is important for understanding aggregation and alteration processes. Synchrotron radiation (SR)-based X-ray tomography reveals 3D structures nondestructively with high spatial resolution of approximately greater than 100 nm. We have developed a new technique using absorption contrasts called "dual-energy tomography" (DET) to obtain 3D distribution of minerals at SPring-8, SR facility in Japan, and applied successfully to Itokawa particles. Phase and absorption contrast images can be simultaneously obtained in 3D by using "scanning-imaging x-ray microscopy" (SIXM) at SPring-8, which can discriminate between void, water and organic materials. We applied this technique combined with FIB micro-sampling to carbonaceous chondrites to search for primitive liquid water. In this study, we combined the DET and SIXM to obtain three dimensional submicron-scale association between minerals, organic materials and water and applied this to pristine carbonaceous chondrites.

Tsuchiyama, A.↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

Transient response for interaction of two dynamic bodies

During the launch sequence of any space vehicle complicated boundary interactions occur between the vehicle and the launch stand. At the start of the sequence large forces exist between the two; contact is then broken in a short but finite time which depends on the release mechanism. The resulting vehicle response produces loads which are very high and often form the design case. It is known that the treatment of the launch pad as a second dynamic body is significant for an accurate prediction of launch response. A technique was developed for obtaining loads generated by the launch transient with the effect of pad dynamics included. The method solves uncoupled vehicle and pad equations of motion. The use of uncoupled models allows the simulation of vehicle launch in a single computer run. Modal formulation allows a closed-form solution to be written, eliminating any need for a numerical integration algorithm. When the vehicle is on the pad the uncoupled pad and vehicle equations have to be modified to account for the constraints they impose on each other. This necessitates the use of an iterative procedure to converge to a solution, using Lagrange multipliers to apply the required constraints. As the vehicle lifts off the pad the coupling between the vehicle and the pad is eliminated point by point until the vehicle flies free. Results obtained by this method were shown to be in good agreement with observed loads and other analysis methods. The resulting computer program is general, and was used without modification to solve a variety of contact problems.

Prabhakar, A.↗

A method for unambiguous determination of starspot temperatures and areas - Application to II Pegasi, BY Draconis, and HD 209813

A method is presented for the unique derivation of both starspot temperatures and effective areas from the range of standardized V and R light curves obtained through the rotation periods, and the method is applied to spots observed on II Pegasi, BY Draconis, and HD 209813. The method involves the determination of the temperature difference between the spot and the surrounding photosphere from V and V-R photometry and the Barnes-Evans visual surface brightness relation, and area determination by the derivation of a parameterized effective area representing the fractional area of disk covered by spots under the assumption that the spot or spot group is adequately described by a single circular spot. By this method, an effective temperature of 3400 K and an area representing 37% of the facing hemisphere are derived for the large, cool spot observed on II Pegasi during 1977, an effective temperature of 3500 K and area of 34% are derived for BY Dra and an effective temperature of less than 3840 K is obtained for HD 209813. The derived starspot temperatures, which are believed to correspond to the starspot penumbrae, imply umbral temperatures of 2600-2900 K, in excellent agreement with the 3 kilogauss umbral spot models of Mullan (1974). The geometric modelling of the formation and migration of the spot on BY Dra also indicates a differential rotation amounting to -9.7 x 10 to the -9th rad/sec per deg, in agreement with the solar value.

Vogt, S. S.↗

Extending water vapor measurement capability of photon-limited differential absorption lidars through simultaneous denoising and inversion

Abstract. The micropulse differential absorption lidar (MPD) was developed at Montana State University (MSU) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to perform range-resolved water vapor (WV) measurements using low-power lasers and photon-counting detectors. The MPD has proven to produce accurate WV measurements up to 6 km altitude. However, the MPD's ability to produce accurate higher-altitude WV measurements is impeded by the current standard differential absorption lidar (DIAL) retrieval methods. These methods are built upon a fundamental methodology that algebraically solves for the WV using the MPD forward models and noisy observations, which exacerbates any random noise in the lidar observations. The work in this paper introduces the adapted Poisson total variation (PTV) specifically for the MPD instrument. PTV was originally developed for a ground-based high spectral resolution lidar, and this paper reports on the adaptations that were required in order to apply PTV on MPD WV observations. The adapted PTV method, coined PTV-MPD, extends the maximum altitude of the MPD from 6 to 8 km and substantially increases the accuracy of the WV retrievals starting above 2 km. PTV-MPD achieves the improvement by simultaneously denoising the MPD noisy observations and inferring the WV by separating the random noise from the non-random WV. An analysis with 130 radiosonde (RS) comparisons shows that the relative root-mean-square difference (RRMSE) of WV measurements between RS and PTV-MPD exceeds 100 % between 6 and 8 km, whereas the RRMSE between RS and the standard method exceeds 100 % near 3 km. In addition, we show that by employing PTV-MPD, the MPD is able to extend its useful range of WV estimates beyond that of the ARM Southern Great Plains Raman lidar (RRMSE exceeding 100 % between 3 and 4 km); the Raman lidar has a power-aperture product 500 times greater than that of the MPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrogen leak detection in the Space Shuttle

This study focuses on a helium gas jet flowing into room air. Measurements of helium concentration and velocity in the jet-air mixture are reported. The objective is to learn about jet characteristics so that dynamically similar hydrogen leaks may be located in the Space Shuttle. The hazardous gas detection system (HGDS) in the mobile launch pad uses mass spectrometers to monitor the shuttle environment for leaks. The mass spectrometers are fed by long sample tubes which draw gas from the payload bay, mid body, aft engine compartment and external tank. The overall purpose of this study is to improve the HGDS especially in its potential for locating hydrogen leaks. A rapid-response leak detection experiment was designed, built, and tested, following on the work done in this program last summer. The apparatus included a Perkin Elmer MGA-1200 mass spectrometer and air velocity transducer, both monitored by a Macintosh IIFX computer using LabVIEW software. A jet of helium flowing into the lab air simulated a gas leak. Steady helium or hydrogen-nitrogen jets were logged for concentration and velocity, and the power spectral density of each was computed. Last year, large eddies and vortices were visually seen with Schlieren imaging, and they were detected in the time plots of the various instruments. The response time of the MGA-1200 was found in the range of 0.05 to 0.1 sec. Pulsed concentration waves were clearly detected at 25 cycles per sec by spectral analysis of MGA data. No peaks were detected in the power spectrum, so in the present study, 10 Hz bandwidth-averaged power levels were examined at regular frequency intervals. The practical consequences of last year's study are as follows: sampling frequency should be increased above the present rate of 1 sample per second so that transients could be observed and analyzed with frequency response methods. Many more experiments and conditions were observed in this second summer, including the effects of orifice diameter, jet velocity, sample tube design, radial effects, vertical flow, and low hydrogen concentrations (1 percent). A frequent observation was that the power spectrum, calculated from the Fourier transform of concentration fluctuations, gives a separate piece of information from concentration. Many of the tests suggest that power is high where mixing occurs at the helium-air interface. This fact is apparently independent of the concentration level, which could be high or low, but depends on the sample location relative to the jet (leak) origin, whereas high concentration may be due to a strong leak far away or a small leak close to the sample tube. If the power is low for any concentration level, this would signify helium is arriving at the sample tube by diffusion, not chaotic mixing caused by the jet interaction with air. The practical result is to propose a modification of the HGDL mass spectrometer data sampling and software so that sampling rates could be capable of observing at least 25 Hz fluctuations.

Barile, Ronald G↗

Small-Signal Stability of Grid-Forming Converters Under Fault Conditions

Threshold virtual impedance (TVI)-based current limiting for grid-forming converters (GFMs) has gained great interest due to its ability to maintain voltage source behaviour during faults. However, sequence component extraction (SCE) and negative-sequence control (NSC) are often overlooked in small-signal stability assessments during faults. This paper develops small-signal sequence impedance models for GFMs under four well-known SCE methods based on TVI current limiting control during symmetrical fault conditions. Using the developed impedance models, the impacts of SCE and NSC, and the voltage and current control loop bandwidths, on system stability during faults are investigated. Additionally, since negative-sequence TVI (TVI-) is typically added along with its positive-sequence counterpart, which is often inductive, inductive and resistive TVI- are examined. The findings suggest that a higher voltage or current control loop bandwidth has a negative impact on system stability, while SCE and NSC largely reduce the stable range for voltage and current control loop bandwidth during faults, and that the severity of such impacts is determined by the particular SCE method. Furthermore, it is observed that inductive TVI- significantly degrades system stability, while resistive TVI- can enhance stability when suitable SCE methods are appropriately selected and designed. Matlab/Simulink electromagnetic transient simulations validate these analytical results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar Radiation Transport in the Cloudy Atmosphere: A 3D Perspective on Observations and Climate Impacts

The interplay of sunlight with clouds is a ubiquitous and often pleasant visual experience, but it conjures up major challenges for weather, climate, environmental science and beyond. Those engaged in the characterization of clouds (and the clear air nearby) by remote sensing methods are even more confronted. The problem comes, on the one hand, from the spatial complexity of real clouds and, on the other hand, from the dominance of multiple scattering in the radiation transport. The former ingredient contrasts sharply with the still popular representation of clouds as homogeneous plane-parallel slabs for the purposes of radiative transfer computations. In typical cloud scenes the opposite asymptotic transport regimes of diffusion and ballistic propagation coexist. We survey the three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer literature over the past 50 years and identify three concurrent and intertwining thrusts: first, how to assess the damage (bias) caused by 3D effects in the operational 1D radiative transfer models? Second, how to mitigate this damage? Finally, can we exploit 3D radiative transfer phenomena to innovate observation methods and technologies? We quickly realize that the smallest scale resolved computationally or observationally may be artificial but is nonetheless a key quantity that separates the 3D radiative transfer solutions into two broad and complementary classes: stochastic and deterministic. Both approaches draw on classic and contemporary statistical, mathematical and computational physics.

Davis, Anthony B.↗

From optimal observables to machine learning: an effective-field-theory analysis of e + e − → W + W − at future lepton colliders

We apply machine-learning techniques to the effective-field-theory analysis of the e + e − → W + W − processes at future lepton colliders, and demonstrate their advantages in comparison with conventional methods, such as optimal observables. In particular, we show that machine-learning methods are more robust to detector effects and backgrounds, and could in principle produce unbiased results with sufficient Monte Carlo simulation samples that accurately describe experiments. This is crucial for the analyses at future lepton colliders given the outstanding precision of the e + e − → W + W − measurement (~ 10−4 in terms of anomalous triple gauge couplings or even better) that can be reached. Our framework can be generalized to other effective-field-theory analyses, such as the one of e + e − → t t ¯ or similar processes at muon colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A fast hidden line algorithm for plotting finite element models

Effective plotting of finite element models requires the use of fast hidden line plot techniques that provide interactive response. A high speed hidden line technique was developed to facilitate the plotting of NASTRAN finite element models. Based on testing using 14 different models, the new hidden line algorithm (JONES-D) appears to be very fast: its speed equals that for normal (all lines visible) plotting and when compared to other existing methods it appears to be substantially faster. It also appears to be very reliable: no plot errors were observed using the new method to plot NASTRAN models. The new algorithm was made part of the NPLOT NASTRAN plot package and was used by structural analysts for normal production tasks.

Jones, G. K.↗

Wildfires Dynamics in Mid-Siberian Larch Dominated Communities

The longterm wildfire dynamics, including fire return interval (FRI), in Siberian larch communities were examined. A wildfire chronology encompassing the 15th through the 20th centuries was developed from analyzing tree stem fire scars. Two methods were used to calculate the time interval between fires: 1) direct counting of annual tree growth rings between stem fire scars and 2) the next earlier fire date was estimated from growth ring analysis and added to the first estimate. Average FRI determined from stem fire scar dating was 82 plus or minus 7 using Method I or 95 plus or minus 7 when age of the next earlier fire was inferred from observed larch regeneration structure (Method II). FRI was also found to be dependent on site topography. FRI on north-east facing slopes was 86 plus or minus 11 years (105 plus or minus 12). FRI on south-west facing slopes was significantly less at 61 plus or minus 8 (73 plus ot minus 8) years. Flat terrain showed little difference between methods 68 plus or minus 14 (70 plus or minus 13). This was also the case for bogs, but FRI was much longer; 139 plus or minus 17 (138 plus ot minus 18). The maximum number of annual fires occurred with periods of 36 and 82 years on average. The temporal trend in the FRI decreased from 101 years in the 19 th century to 65 years in the 20th century. The effect of post-fire forest recovery on depth to permafrost was also estimated. After initial melting from increased local temperatures permafrost depth decreased at a rate of 0.3 cm/yr on average as forest canopies developed.

Kharuk, V. I.↗

Observer-based robust-H-infinity control laws for uncertain linear systems

Based on the algebraic Riccati equation approach, this paper presents a simple and flexible method for designing observer-based robust-H-infinity control laws for linear systems with structured parameter uncertainty. The observer-based robust-H-infinity output-feedback control law, obtained by solving three augmented algebraic Riccati equations, provides both robust stability and disturbance attenuation with H-infinity-norm bound for the closed-loop uncertain linear system. Several tuning parameters are embedded into the augmented algebraic Riccati equations so that flexibility in finding the symmetric positive-definite solutions (and hence, the robust-H-infinity control laws) is significantly increased. A benchmark problem associated with a mass-spring system, which approximates the dynamics of a flexible structure, is used to illustrate the design methodologies, and simulation results are presented.

Shieh, Leang S.↗

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]↗

The kinetic temperature and CH3CCH column density profiles in SGR B2, Orion, and Dr 21

Kinetic temperatures, T(kin), are presently estimated by means of a technique employing the intensities of the adjacent rotational transitions of symmetric top molecules, under the assumptions that the metastable levels are thermalized, and that the excitation temperature connecting the upper level of the observed transition to the lowest level in the K ladder is the same for the both adjacent transitions. The method is applied to observations of the J = 5-4 and J = 6-5 transitions of CH3CCH obtained at 1-arcmin intervals along a NS-EW cross that centered on Orion KL, Sgr B2, and Dr 21. The technique's application to CH3CN lines from the central positions of Sgr B2 and Orion produces T(kin) values that are in good agreement with other determinations. The fact that these lines are broader than those of CH3CCH is interpreted in terms of a model in which CH3CN emission is confined to small and warm core region while CH3CCH emission is dominated by a more extensive, almost isothermal and cooler halo region in Orion KL and Sgr B2.

Churchwell, E.↗