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At least 757 records · Page 42

Characterizing the Uncertainty of Measurement of Traceable Isotope Ratios with Bayesian Statistical Techniques

Analytical techniques such as multicollector—inductively coupled plasma—mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) are routinely employed at SRNL, other National Laboratories, and in academia to determine the precise isotopic composition of diverse natural and anthropogenic samples (e.g., rocks and nuclear materials). Quantifying and reporting uncertainty in such analyses, while regularly performed, have a rigorous statistical foundation. The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement 4 (GUM) outlines conventional techniques used to assess such uncertainty. As the accessibility and speed of statistical computing increase, there is a need to modernize conventional techniques. For example, Supplement 1 to the 3rd to the GUM suggests the use of approximation methods as an updated approach to the GUM.

McLarty, Ellis C.↗

Assessment and Planning of Decarbonization Research and Training at UTRGV

During the one-year project, we identified research areas that align with Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) mission goals and assessed our university's current research capability and resources. In addition, we determined the resources needed to support FECM-related research and development (R&D) at our minority-serving institution, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) in to increase our competitiveness for future funding opportunities in this area. We also gathered information on the current academic courses, programs and curriculum at UTRGV that aligns with FECM goals and described additional needs pertaining to student training.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Technologies to Mitigate the Presence of Gaseous Elemental Mercury in Waste Disposal Containers

A study was conducted to evaluate sorbent technologies that can mitigate the presence of elemental mercury (Hg⁰) in waste containers for mercury-contaminated debris (MCD). Decontamination and demolition (D&D) activities at the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) facilities generate MCD requiring offsite disposal. The debris is packaged in appropriate waste containers and may be temporarily stored onsite prior to transport for treatment and/or disposal. During transportation of loads that had no visible liquid Hg at the point of origin, temperature changes can cause Hg⁰ to evaporate, condense, and form droplets on container walls. Furthermore, vibration during transportation could cause beads of Hg to be released from the debris, container walls, and ceiling, resulting in pools of liquid Hg⁰ on the container floor. Waste acceptance criteria (WAC) limitations for commercial disposal facilities, the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), and ORR mixed low-level waste landfills prohibit the presence of any free liquids in containers identified as a solid waste form. Potential solutions to mitigate the presence of residual liquids that could be formed through vapor condensation include the use of sorbents or similar materials to capture and stabilize volatile Hg⁰ vapors and thus ensure compliance with landfill WAC requirements. This report summarizes data from small-scale laboratory experiments conducted to evaluate sorbent materials for Hg⁰ vapor suppression and sorption of liquid Hg⁰ that could form under relevant transportation and disposal conditions. A series of experiments was conducted to evaluate commercial sorbent materials and their effectiveness for Hg⁰ sorption across a temperature range from 19.4°C to 60°C. The impact of residual moisture on sorption was investigated under relevant conditions, and leaching tests were performed to assess the stability of Hg⁰ captured sorbent materials. The results provide estimates for sorbent quantities needed for a given Hg⁰ mass loading based on experimental results exposing sorbents to gaseous and liquid Hg⁰ at various mass ratios. Overall, sorbents that were most effective for Hg⁰ vapor suppression were brominated activated carbons, mackinawite-based sorbents coated on vermiculite, and sulfur-modified granular activated carbon. Elevated temperatures and moisture conditions did not result in significant increases of Hg⁰ headspace concentrations, and the materials also demonstrated high sorption capacities for the sorption of liquid Hg⁰.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance and flexibility improvements of Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion

Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) is a low-carbon coal combustion power technology being developed by Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). Oxy-combustion plants enable straightforward capture of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by removing most of the nitrogen in the combustion air prior to use, thereby burning fuel in near-pure oxygen instead of air, producing a flue gas containing primarily CO 2 and water. CO 2 capture at amounts > 90% is possible, often using cryogenic air separation. Oxy-combustion typically relies on flue gas recycle (FGR) to reduce the peak temperature and radiation that would otherwise occur in a fuel/oxygen only flame. SPOC reduces the peak temperatures of combustion by utilizing two or more pressurized boiler modules connected in series to produce fuel staging; hence, only a portion of the fuel is combusted in any given furnace module. This means that the thermal energy released at each stage can be captured and removed from the gases prior to subsequent stages, when more fuel is introduced. This allows the SPOC process to operate with minimal FGR, avoiding the associated efficiency losses and additional costs. Also, the process operates at an elevated gas-side pressure, reducing boiler size, enhancing heat transfer to achieve a compact boiler configuration as compared to an atmospheric-pressure boiler design, and allowing for recovery of the latent heat of the water from the flue gas at a temperature useful to the steam cycle. The resultant net efficiency of the system is over 3 percentage points greater than traditional atmospheric-pressure oxy-combustion, and 7 percentage points greater than the post combustion variant, representing a step-change improvement over first-generation capture technologies. To further develop the concept, WUSTL and the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., organized a project with American Air Liquide, Inc., Doosan Babcock Limited, and the U.S. Department of Energy to investigate a practicable and workable boiler design. The team has identified the potential for enhanced process flexibility for controlling power generation over a wider load range than is normally available to conventional coal-fired power plants due to the staged nature of the heat release. With increasing intermittent renewable generator contribution, on-demand generators need to be highly flexible to participate in the future energy market, requiring extensive operation at reduced load. Conventional coal-fired steam generators typically face challenges in maintaining temperature control of the reheat steam and main steam at reduced loads. This results in inefficient operation, both in terms of the boiler efficiency and steam turbine heat rate. The results of this project show the SPOC process is capable of exceptional turndown, both on a stage basis and with the ability to bypass entire stages. Oxygen-supply flexibility was also investigated, as this is also a key consideration for the overall flexibility of the SPOC process given the operating constraints of conventional air separation units. A boiler design concept assessment was conducted and was focused on delivering compact and constructible design. The assessment checked appropriate tube operating metal temperatures at full load and at lower operating loads, balanced against the needs of efficient coal combustion, and the resultant slagging and ash environments. Combustion testing in the 100-kWth pressurized combustion test rig at WUSTL was carried out to validate the combustion, heat flux profiles and burnout at multiple loads. Combustion parameters investigated were flame stability, fuel burnout, ash composition, radiative heat flux, and temperature profiles. The results of these tests formed the basis of a full-scale boiler design that will encompass improvements in both efficiency and flexibility over conventional oxy-combustion processes. The air separation unit flexibility was investigated, and associated cost implications were addressed. Detailed economic assessment results for a 550 MWe net power block are also provided, allowing for a comparison against the baseline NETL oxy-combustion and post combustion capture cases.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Cited Reference Analysis in a National Laboratory to Assess Journal Usage

Librarians at a large, federally funded, multidisciplinary research organization sought to assess the value provided by the library’s collections. One method for capturing this value includes determining how well their library’s collections meet researcher needs, as expressed by the materials those researchers choose to cite in the production of new scholarly communications. A cited reference analysis was performed on the publications originating from the institution to provide the necessary data for the assessment, as well as to aid in the creation of a core list of journals which will inform future collection development efforts. Overall, this paper fills a gap in the library and information science literature by addressing the citation behaviors of researchers at a large multidisciplinary government research facility, a setting that has not been examined previously.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

PRIMED for the Future: Purposing Raw Intake for Machine Learning-Enabled Detection (Final Report)

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how a novel, elusive, and diffuse biological threat can engender uncertainty and misinformation, and it underscored the need for flexible analytical modalities agnostic to the identity of biological material. Yet even before the pandemic, recognition of the limitations of the current, list-based approach, which focuses on known pathogens and biotoxins, and of the importance of agent-agnostic biodetection was growing within the biosecurity community. In a 2018 report on “Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology,” for example, the National Academy of Sciences stated that “an overreliance on the Select Agent List is a systematic weakness affecting many aspects of the United States’ current biodefense mitigation capability”. More recently, a group of biodefense researchers proposed the identification and adoption of “bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs)” as a way of detecting and characterizing not only existing agents but also novel ones, an approach they believe will “enable a more flexible and resilient biodefense posture”. Indeed, the future of biodetection requires us to begin developing novel analytics that can identify anomalies and/or characteristics that indicate a potential threat, whether known or unknown, without looking for a specific signature that has been identified previously. To assess potential threats more rapidly, it is critical to develop agnostic artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) systems that can be employed for real-time assessment of the nature and source of a perturbation. Such systems should be multi scale and multi-dimensional, integrating sensor data from a range of biological, chemical, and physical application spaces. Emerging deep learning (DL) models demonstrate exceptional promise for identification of discriminatory features within multi-dimensional datasets. DL models have the capacity to recognize and encode highly complex patterns in a wide range of input data modalities, including images, text, and biological/chemical/physical spectra. As such, they can execute a wide range of assessments and determinations that have traditionally required a human operator. The promise of advances in DL is apparent in the realm of human health and medicine. DL models have been validated for evaluating a variety of clinical threats to human health in a range of contexts, including infection and cancer, and they demonstrated improved performance in predicting stroke relative to human neurologists in some categories of data. Continuously evolving advances in AI/ML are expected to support more efficient evaluation of raw sequence, spectroscopy, and spectrometry data. For instance, recent advances and deployment of large language models (LLM) such as Generative Pre training Transformer (GPT) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) have already motivated application of these models for biological function prediction. As frameworks such as LLMs become larger and more complex in their representations, their capacity to serve as pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for biological/biodetection purposes will similarly be amplified. While existing and emerging AI/ML have found broad applicability and use cases in the clinical sciences, development for environmental evaluation and biodetection has been limited. Functionalizing such capabilities for this purpose requires an understanding of the existing technical landscape and how the respective tools and algorithms are currently being employed. This landscape awareness then allows an assessment of the current practical capabilities of existing models and the anticipated requirements and development efforts that will be needed to adapt available algorithms for biodetection applications relevant to DHS. Leveraging expertise in biodetection, ML, and operational biodetection, the effort described in this report is comprised of a systematic landscape assessment (Subtask 2.1), comparative evaluation (Subtask 2.2), and formulation of a value proposition (Subtask 2.3) for the prospect of ML-enabled, agnostic biodetection from raw, or minimally-processed, datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the theory-data tension in neutrino-induced charged pion production: the effect of final-state nucleon distortion

Pion production on nuclei constitutes a significant part of the total cross section in experiments involving few-GeV neutrinos. Combined analyses of data on deuterium and heavier nuclei points to tensions between the bubble chamber data and the data of the MINER$\nu$A experiment, which are often ascribed to unspecified nuclear effects. To understand the origin of these tensions, a microscopic quantum mechanical framework is needed to compute nuclear matrix elements. We use the local approximation to the relativistic distorted wave impulse approximation (RDWIA) to assess the role of final-state nucleon distortion. To perform this comparison under conditions relevant to neutrino experiments, we compute cross sections for the MINER$\nu$A and T2K charged pion production datasets. The inclusion of nucleon distortion leads to a reduction of the cross section up to 10%, but to no significant change in shape of the flux-averaged cross sections. Results with and without distortion compare favorably to experimental data, with the exception of the low-$Q^2$ MINER$\nu$A $\pi^+$ data. We point out that hydrogen target data from BEBC is also overpredicted at low-$Q^2$, and that the discrepancy is similar in shape and magnitude to what is found in comparison to MINER$\nu$A data. Including nucleon distortion alone cannot explain the overprediction of low-$Q^2$ cross sections measured by MINER$\nu$A. The similar overprediction of BEBC data on hydrogen means that it is impossible to ascribe this discrepancy solely to a nuclear effect. Axial couplings and their $Q^2$ dependence should ideally be derived from more precise data on hydrogen and deuterium.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design Readiness And Maturity Assessment (DRAMA) Tool for Advanced Reactors

Abstract – This research is developing a formal, repeatable method to assess the readiness and maturity of an advanced nuclear reactor design for licensing and deployment. This design readiness and maturity assessment (DRAMA) tool will be capable of determining the readiness of the design and of all parties needed to bring a particular advanced reactor design to fruition. Beneficiaries and stakeholders include the design team, research organizations (required to collect needed data and develop design tools), standards organizations, research facilities to support gathering of needed data, supply chain and construction organizations, and everyone responsible for legal and regulatory infrastructure (including defining import-export requirements). Recent experience has shown that even the most experienced engineering and construction organizations, with decades of experience in the nuclear power business, have had significant challenges in bringing designs to completion, licensing the designs, and constructing new plants. For new entries into the field, simply understanding the unique environmental and regulatory requirements have been daunting. A significant part of the challenge is that new entries into the market do not know what they don't know. This tool will provide design teams a better understanding of their readiness to proceed to licensing (and other steps in the process), while at the same time providing a valuable metric for other interested organizations, such as funding agencies, national regulators, and international markets. The DRAMA tool will provide an assessment of the likelihood of successfully completing licensing and deployment and will also create the capability to assess the ability of regulatory infrastructure and the supply chain to support the deployment of any design or class of designs. It will also help prioritize research and policy efforts to improve the likelihood of deployment of the next generation of advanced reactors.

Arndt, Steven↗

A Simulation Study of Quantum Clock Synchronization Using Teleportation

An important requirement in implementing distributed computing and sensing application is the synchronization of clocks at various locations. The Internet relies on the Network Time Protocol (NTP), which synchronizes clocks with accuracy in the order of milliseconds. More recently an ensemble of atomic clocks is used for navigation based on GPS. These clocks are highly accurate and provide time with very low uncertainty. Even so, many physics experiments such as distributed LIGO-based systems may require more accurate clock synchronization that is achievable using quantum entanglement. This requires the deployment of a network of quantum clocks synchronized by exploiting entangled atomic clock qubits. In this paper, we carry out a simulation study of synchronizing a network of quantum clocks interconnected by a fiber plant that supports the ESnet; the latter is used to support the classical communication needed for teleportation. We consider an existing protocol for synchro-nizing the atomic clock qubits that relies on the GHZ states. To assess the performance of the protocol we developed a discrete-event simulation of the network using IBM Qiskit framework for underlying quantum gate operations and measurements. The simulation results shed light on the resources required in terms of the number entangled qubits and the time needed to achieve the synchronization of different number of nodes in ESnet.

Kiran, Mariam↗

Improving Fission Products at CARIBU (NA-22 Final Report)

Detailed knowledge of fission-product (FP) decay properties is needed for a variety of applications of nuclear science such as nuclear-energy production, nuclear-nonproliferation efforts, nuclear-forensics assessments, and stockpile stewardship, as well as for establishing a comprehensive understanding of the fission process, r-process nucleo-synthesis, and fundamental neutrino science. Although nearly a thousand radioactive isotopes are produced in fission, in many cases key pieces of nuclear data on only a handful of isotopes are needed to make a significant impact.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Energy Efficiency Assessment for a Microgrid in the Community of Castañer, Puerto Rico

The Cooperativa Hidroeléctrica de la Montaña (Cooperativa) and the Interstate Renewable Energy Council office in Puerto Rico (IREC) are leading the development of a community solar photovoltaic (PV) microgrid comprised of a 225 kWDC photovoltaic system tied to a 500 kWh storage system in the Community of Castañer, in the town of Lares in Puerto Rico. This microgrid will support the electricity needs of eight essential businesses and four homes. The Cooperativa and IREC requested technical assistance to help conduct a comprehensive energy efficiency assessment for the commercial buildings to maximize the impact of the solar PV microgrid. The goal was to identify energy conservation measures that would have the highest impact in terms of reducing electricity demand in order to; reduce the size and cost of the PV microgrid; and reduce the annual operating costs for building owners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Rapid QSTS Simulations for High-Resolution Comprehensive Assessment of Distributed PV

The rapid increase in penetration of distributed energy resources on the electric power distribution system has created a need for more comprehensive interconnection modeling and impact analysis. Unlike conventional scenario-based studies, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations can realistically model time-dependent voltage controllers and the diversity of potential impacts that can occur at different times of year. However, to accurately model a distribution system with all its controllable devices, a yearlong simulation at 1-second resolution is often required, which could take conventional computers a computational time of 10 to 120 hours when an actual unbalanced distribution feeder is modeled. This computational burden is a clear limitation to the adoption of QSTS simulations in interconnection studies and for determining optimal control solutions for utility operations. The solutions we developed include accurate and computationally efficient QSTS methods that could be implemented in existing open-source and commercial software used by utilities and the development of methods to create high-resolution proxy data sets. This project demonstrated multiple pathways for speeding up the QSTS computation using new and innovative methods for advanced time-series analysis, faster power flow solvers, parallel processing of power flow solutions and circuit reduction. The target performance level for this project was achieved with year-long high-resolution time series solutions run in less than 5 minutes within an acceptable error.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Tool to Incorporate Non-Energy Impacts in Energy Efficiency Investment Decision Making for Firms

Energy efficiency is a key demand-side strategy for sustainability, recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. The increased focus on decarbonization and the requirement for efficiency to enable electrification, another decarbonization pillar, due to the spark spread between natural gas and electricity prices, make energy efficiency increasingly relevant. Still, industries face challenges in adopting energy efficiency measures. Researchers have long found a gap in adoption of even those measures with a profitable net present value, attributed to lack of strategic value among other barriers (see for rigorous exploration and taxonomy). One solution to facilitate energy efficiency projects is the inclusion of non-energy impacts, as this has been shown to double potential deployment of such projects at system level. Energy efficiency can provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, from decreased pollution to enhanced productivity. The inclusion of these benefits in decision making assessments faces hurdles due to inconsistency of ancillary benefits across projects, difficulties in quantifying impacts and the need for additional measurement to quantify them. The decision-making tools to support this have been designed primarily for the European context. We begin with a stakeholder engagement process to better characterize the U.S. decision making process surrounding adoption of energy efficiency investments. Characterization of non-energy impacts has developed substantially over recent decades. Cagno et al. provided a framework for studying the applicability of these impacts to energy efficiency projects, listing 120 key performance indicators focused mainly on reductions of costs/harms. Other researchers have included impacts on the strategic and revenue side that can be merged into this framework as well. We seek a tractable set of impacts that can be included in a decision-making tool in the US, and as such are well suited to US industry, management and decision making processes. We also seek to understand how to best quantify or characterize these impacts. This work will demonstrate the results of a survey conducted among US manufacturing industry decision makers to assess the decision making landscape of stakeholders as well as the most relevant performance indicators for energy efficiency projects.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Codes and Standards Assessment for Hydrogen Blends into the Natural Gas Infrastructure

Energy utilities are evaluating emerging energy technologies to reduce reliance on carbon as an energy carrier. Hydrogen has been identified as a potential substitute for carbon-based fuels that can be blended into other gaseous energy carriers, such as natural gas. However, hydrogen blending into natural gas has important implications on safety which need to be evaluated. Designers and installers of systems that utilize hydrogen gas blending into natural gas distribution systems need to adhere to local building codes and engage with the authority having jurisdiction (AHJ) for safety and permitting approvals. These codes and standards must be considered to understand where safety gaps might be apparent when injecting hydrogen into the natural gas infrastructure. This report generates a list of relevant codes and standards for hydrogen blending on existing, upgraded, or new pipelines. Additionally, a preliminary assessment was made to identify the codes and standards that need to be modified to enable this technology as well as potential gaps due to the unique nature and safety concerns of gaseous hydrogen.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Preliminary Assessment of Renewable Energy Options at the Sravasti Abbey [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NREL, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term clean energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional clean energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported the Sravasti Abbey in Washington a preliminary assessment of distributed energy technology financial feasibility for their site. The outcome consists of low estimated savings from these technologies due to their already low energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Applying queueing theory to evaluate wait-time-savings of triage algorithms

Abstract In the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have made promising impacts in many areas of healthcare. One application is AI-enabled prioritization software known as computer-aided triage and notification (CADt). This type of software as a medical device is intended to prioritize reviews of radiological images with time-sensitive findings, thus shortening the waiting time for patients with these findings. While many CADt devices have been deployed into clinical workflows and have been shown to improve patient treatment and clinical outcomes, quantitative methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings from their deployment are not yet available. In this paper, we apply queueing theory methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings of a CADt by calculating the average waiting time per patient image without and with a CADt device being deployed. We study two workflow models with one or multiple radiologists (servers) for a range of AI diagnostic performances, radiologist’s reading rates, and patient image (customer) arrival rates. To evaluate the time-saving performance of a CADt, we use the difference in the mean waiting time between the diseased patient images in the with-CADt scenario and that in the without-CADt scenario as our performance metric. As part of this effort, we have developed and also share a software tool to simulate the radiology workflow around medical image interpretation, to verify theoretical results, and to provide confidence intervals for the performance metric we defined. We show quantitatively that a CADt triage device is more effective in a busy, short-staffed reading setting, which is consistent with our clinical intuition and simulation results. Although this work is motivated by the need for evaluating CADt devices, the evaluation methodology presented in this paper can be applied to assess the time-saving performance of other types of algorithms that prioritize a subset of customers based on binary outputs.

Thompson, Yee Lam Elim (ORCID:0000000196537707)↗