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DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Risk Analysis of Accidental Release Using CFD Modeling and Machine Learning

This project report presents the results from the AU31 project that is entitled “Enhancing Risk Analysis of Accidental Release Using CFD Modeling and Machine Learning” performed between FY2021 and FY2022. The technical objective of this project is to enhance risk analysis of accidental release of radioactive materials and provide novel risk forecasting and capabilities for assessing unplanned hazardous chemical releases for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The approach includes a cross-platform finite element analysis of airborne chemical release, machine learning (ML) for simulation and forecasting, and a big data approach to data management, transformation and analysis capable of handling petabyte-scale unstructured and structured data. The outcome of these findings were assembled and accessible as a final output via an intuitive web hosted geospatial-based user interface for demonstration and general dissemination. These new results also provide a mechanism of combining this knowledge in a risk analysis framework tool. The geospatial analysis and output can utilize 5 years of qualified meteorological data to illustrate projected plume footprints that are generated from computational aspects of this study. Specifically, we show the development of a geospatial risk analysis capabilities to respond to and plan for accidental release of radioactive materials and to provide a risk forecasting tool for assessing hazardous chemical releases for the DOE. The focus of this effort is germane to common practices in risk analysis; and it is highly relevant to the timely and transparent release of information related to materials at risk including hazardous materials and chemical vapors and rapid assessment of the potential impacts on the workforce at active sites across the DOE complex.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Compensatory Reserve Measurement: Methods for Feature Selection and the Effects of Subject Variability

Tracking vital signs accurately is critical for triaging a patient and ensuring timely therapeutic intervention. The patient’s status is often clouded by compensatory mechanisms that can mask injury severity. The compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) is a triaging tool derived from an arterial waveform that has been shown to allow for earlier detection of hemorrhagic shock. However, the deep-learning artificial neural networks developed for its estimation do not explain how specific arterial waveform elements lead to predicting CRM due to the large number of parameters needed to tune these models. Alternatively, we investigate how classical machine-learning models driven by specific features extracted from the arterial waveform can be used to estimate CRM. More than 50 features were extracted from human arterial blood pressure data sets collected during simulated hypovolemic shock resulting from exposure to progressive levels of lower body negative pressure. A bagged decision tree design using the ten most significant features was selected as optimal for CRM estimation. This resulted in an average root mean squared error in all test data of 0.171, similar to the error for a deep-learning CRM algorithm at 0.159. By separating the dataset into sub-groups based on the severity of simulated hypovolemic shock withstood, large subject variability was observed, and the key features identified for these sub-groups differed. This methodology could allow for the identification of unique features and machine-learning models to differentiate individuals with good compensatory mechanisms against hypovolemia from those that might be poor compensators, leading to improved triage of trauma patients and ultimately enhancing military and emergency medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detecting defects that reduce breakdown voltage using machine learning and optical profilometry

Abstract Semiconductor wafer manufacturing relies on the precise control of various performance metrics to ensure the quality and reliability of integrated circuits. In particular, GaN has properties that are advantageous for high voltage and high frequency power devices; however, defects in the substrate growth and manufacturing are preventing vertical devices from performing optimally. This paper explores the application of machine learning techniques utilizing data obtained from optical profilometry as input variables to predict the probability of a wafer meeting performance metrics, specifically the breakdown voltage (V bk ). By incorporating machine learning techniques, it is possible to reliably predict performance metrics that cause devices to fail at low voltage. For diodes that fail at a higher (but still below theoretical) breakdown voltage, alternative inspection methods or a combination of several experimental techniques may be necessary.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

Direct air capture (DAC) is a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been studied as DAC sorbent materials because of their structural and chemical diversity. Thermodynamic calculations using classical force fields are often used to evaluate MOFs for their performance in separations such as CO2 capture. Machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) can use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). These descriptions of forces and energies can be used to improve the accuracy of adsorption calculations. In this work, classical models were used to pre-screen MOFs for CO2 capture. DFT calculations were then used to examine the adsorption mechanism. Next, MLFF models were developed for MOFs to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption properties.

Findley, John↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identification of integrated proteomics and transcriptomics signature of alcohol-associated liver disease using machine learning

Distinguishing between alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC) remains a diagnostic challenge. In this study, we used machine learning with transcriptomics and proteomics data from liver tissue and peripheral mononuclear blood cells (PBMCs) to classify patients with alcohol-associated liver disease. The conditions in the study were AH, AC, and healthy controls. We processed 98 PBMC RNAseq samples, 55 PBMC proteomic samples, 48 liver RNAseq samples, and 53 liver proteomic samples. First, we built separate classification and feature selection pipelines for transcriptomics and proteomics data. The liver tissue models were validated in independent liver tissue datasets. Next, we built integrated gene and protein expression models that allowed us to identify combined gene-protein biomarker panels. For liver tissue, we attained 90% nested-cross validation accuracy in our dataset and 82% accuracy in the independent validation dataset using transcriptomic data. We attained 100% nested-cross validation accuracy in our dataset and 61% accuracy in the independent validation dataset using proteomic data. For PBMCs, we attained 83% and 89% accuracy with transcriptomic and proteomic data, respectively. The integration of the two data types resulted in improved classification accuracy for PBMCs, but not liver tissue. We also identified the following gene-protein matches within the gene-protein biomarker panels: CLEC4M-CLC4M, GSTA1-GSTA2 for liver tissue and SELENBP1-SBP1 for PBMCs. In this study, machine learning models had high classification accuracy for both transcriptomics and proteomics data, across liver tissue and PBMCs. The integration of transcriptomics and proteomics into a multi-omics model yielded improvement in classification accuracy for the PBMC data. The set of integrated gene-protein biomarkers for PBMCs show promise toward developing a liquid biopsy for alcohol-associated liver disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for continuous quantum error correction on superconducting qubits

Abstract Continuous quantum error correction has been found to have certain advantages over discrete quantum error correction, such as a reduction in hardware resources and the elimination of error mechanisms introduced by having entangling gates and ancilla qubits. We propose a machine learning algorithm for continuous quantum error correction that is based on the use of a recurrent neural network to identify bit-flip errors from continuous noisy syndrome measurements. The algorithm is designed to operate on measurement signals deviating from the ideal behavior in which the mean value corresponds to a code syndrome value and the measurement has white noise. We analyze continuous measurements taken from a superconducting architecture using three transmon qubits to identify three significant practical examples of non-ideal behavior, namely auto-correlation at temporal short lags, transient syndrome dynamics after each bit-flip, and drift in the steady-state syndrome values over the course of many experiments. Based on these real-world imperfections, we generate synthetic measurement signals from which to train the recurrent neural network, and then test its proficiency when implementing active error correction, comparing this with a traditional double threshold scheme and a discrete Bayesian classifier. The results show that our machine learning protocol is able to outperform the double threshold protocol across all tests, achieving a final state fidelity comparable to the discrete Bayesian classifier.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Cyber-Attack Detection in Power Systems: A Comparative Study of Machine Learning and Graph Neural Network Approaches

This paper explores the detection and localization of cyber-attacks on power systems, focusing on comparing conventional machine learning (ML) and deep learning methods, and graph neural network (GNN)-based techniques. We assess the detection accuracy of these approaches and their potential to pinpoint the locations of specific buses under attack. Given the demonstrated success of GNNs in other time series anomaly detection applications, we aim to evaluate their performance within the context of power systems cyber-attack. Utilizing the IEEE 68-bus system, we simulated four types of attacks to test the selected approaches. Our results indicate that GNN-based methods outperform conventional machine learning and deep learning models in detection. Additionally, GNNs show promise in accurately localizing attacks for simple scenarios, although they still face challenges in more complex cases.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine-Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

To cope with legacy greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop direct air capture (DAC), a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been well studied as DAC sorbent materials due to their tunable structural and compositional properties. Thermodynamic simulations using force fields are often used to provide predictions of a material’s performance in many separations. However, these force fields often make assumptions about bonds and the physics of the adsorption process. A new class of force fields called machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). In this work, models were developed to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption using MLFFs. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption in several MOFs.

Findley, John↗

DOE OSTI2022

Intracardiac Electrical Imaging using the 12-lead ECG: A Machine Learning Approach using Synthetic Data

Current state-of-the-art techniques for non-invasive imaging of cardiac electrical phenomena require voltage recordings from dozens of different torso locations and anatomical models built from expensive medical diagnostic imaging procedures. Here this study aimed to assess if recent machine learning advances could alternatively reconstruct electroanatomical maps at clinically relevant resolutions using only the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) as input. To that end, a computational study was conducted to generate a dataset of over 16000 detailed cardiac simulations, which was then used to train neural network (NN) architectures designed to exploit both spatial and temporal correlations in the ECG signal. Analysis over a validation set showed average errors in activation map reconstruction below 1.7 msec over 75 intracardiac locations. Furthermore, phenotypical patterns of activation and the morphology of the activation potential were correctly reconstructed. The approach offers opportunities to stratify patients non-invasively, both retrospectively and prospectively, using metrics otherwise only available through invasive clinical procedures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing different motility-induced regimes in active matter with machine learning and noise

Here we examine motility-induced phase separation (MIPS) in two-dimensional run-and-tumble disk systems using both machine learning and noise fluctuation analysis. Our measures suggest that within the MIPS state there are several distinct regimes as a function of density and run time, so that systems with MIPS transitions exhibit an active fluid, an active crystal, and a critical regime. The different regimes can be detected by combining an order parameter extracted from principal component analysis with a cluster stability measurement. The principal component-derived order parameter is maximized in the critical regime, remains low in the active fluid, and has an intermediate value in the active crystal regime. We demonstrate that machine learning can better capture dynamical properties of the MIPS regimes compared to more standard structural measures such as the maximum cluster size. The different regimes can also be characterized via changes in the noise power of the fluctuations in the average speed. In the critical regime, the noise power passes through a maximum and has a broad spectrum with a 1/f 1.6 signature, similar to the noise observed near depinning transitions or for solids undergoing plastic deformation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Actinide Molten Salts: A Machine-Learning Potential Molecular Dynamics Study

We know that actinide molten salts represent a class of important materials in nuclear energy. Understanding them at a molecular level is critical to proper and optimal design of relevant technological applications. Yet, owing to the complexity of electronic structure due to the 5f orbitals, computational studies of heavy elements in condensed phases using ab initio potentials to study the structure and dynamics of these elements embedded in molten salts are difficult. This lack of efficient computational protocols makes it difficult to obtain information on properties that require extensive statistical sampling like transport. To tackle this problem, we adopted a machine-learning approach to study ThCl 4 -NaCl and UCl 3 -NaCl binary systems. The machine-learning potential, with the density functional theory accuracy, allows us to obtain long molecular dynamics trajectories (ns) for large systems (10 3 atoms) at a considerably low computing cost, thereby efficiently gaining information about their bonding structures, thermodynamics, and dynamics at a range of temperature. We observed a considerable change in the coordination environments of actinide elements and their characteristic coordination-sphere lifetime. Our study also suggests that actinides in molten salts may not follow well known entropy-scaling laws.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning assisted rediscovery of methane storage and separation in porous carbon from material literature

Porous carbon (PC) has been widely regarded as one of the most promising absorbents for methane storage. Studies show that its uptake capacity and selectivity highly depend on textural structures. Although much effort has been made, unveiling their detailed structure-performance relationship remains a challenge. Here, we propose an innovative study where, with the assistance of machine learning, the hidden relationship of the textural structures of PC with the methane uptake and separation can be derived from existing data in material literature. Machine learning models were trained by the data, including specific surface area, micropore volume, mesopore volume, temperature, and pressure as the input variables and methane uptake as the output variable for prediction. Among the tested models, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) shows the highest accuracy in predicting the methane uptake. In addition, the model enables to automatically construct a uptake performance map in terms of micropore volume and mesopore volume. The obtained MLP model was also extended to explore the CO 2 /CH 4 selectivity by retraining it with the data collected from literature of PC for the CO 2 uptake. Finally, the constructed 2D selectivity map shows that the high selectivity can be achieved in the low CH 4 uptake region.

42 ENGINEERING↗