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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

(U) A General-Purpose Code for Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics with MCNP6 for Fixed-Source Problems

Correlated sampling can be used to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies by taking advantage of the negative covariance term in the sandwich formula. Booth first showed how correlated sampling can be applied with batch statistics using MCNP’s tally fluctuation chart (TFC) to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies in fixed-source problems. Booth presented a problem in which a 1273% uncertainty in a difference was reduced to 8% by accounting for correlations. Researchers He and Su recently studied correlated sampling using the TFC in MCNP version 5. They determined that the code did not print enough digits in the TFC tally means for accurate batch statistics in some cases. After modifying the source code, they concluded that “correlated sampling can yield a standard deviation of about one magnitude smaller than that predicted by the direct, un-correlated simulation when the changes in system response are small (say about 1%), which is equivalent to saving in CPU time by a factor of 100. Such saving [sic] becomes less significant as the change in system response becomes larger.” He and Su provided the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a difference of tallies. In this report, we follow up on their work by providing the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a ratio of tallies and of a difference of two tallies divided by a third tally. We extend these formulas to differences and ratios of ratios. These formulas are applied to reduce the uncertainty associated with calculating a relative sensitivity. He and Su did not investigate the accuracy of their correlated sampling uncertainty estimates. We use their test problems and evaluate the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates by comparing with results obtained from random sampling, and, in simple cases, with theoretical values of the “exact” uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties obtained from batch statistics are accurate as long as at least 100 batches are used. We present a new computer code, COSUBS (COrrelated Sampling Using Batch Statistics), that reads MCNP6 TFCs and applies correlated sampling using batch statistics for the tally combinations that the user specifies. COSUBS is a very general tool that compares all TFCs for a base case and one or two perturbed cases. It computes uncertainties for ratios if given only a base case. This report is organized as follows. The equations to apply batch statistics to the difference of random tallies are reviewed in Sec. II. Section III presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a ratio of random tallies; this is useful for computing relative sensitivities using a one-sided finite difference and the relative sensitivity using the differential operator method. Section IV presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two random tallies divided by a third; this is useful for computing a relative sensitivities using a central difference. Section V presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two ratios with four random tallies. Section VI presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a one-sided finite difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses four random tallies). Section VII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a central difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses six random tallies). Section VIII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a sum of random tallies. Section IX discusses how to apply batch statistics using MCNP6. Section X presents COSUBS, describing its command-line options and logic. Sections XI through XVI present numerical results for various test problems. Section XVII is a summary and conclusions. Appendix A derives the theoretical Monte Carlo tally variance given certain assumptions; these variances are used to verify the batch statistics for some of the problems. Appendix B lists the MCNP6 input for the unperturbed example problem. Appendix C presents modifications made to MCNP6.3 to support this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supply Chain Binary Program Assessment Annual Report

Secure environments face a steadily increasing threat from the introduction of scientific equipment that includes extensive software components. Devices such as powerful microscopes, 3d printers, programmable logic controllers, and many others, increase our capability and scientific output. Unfortunately, they now frequently include an entire computing stack with custom software bundled along with entire operating systems. Our ability to introspect and understand binary software is extremely limited, opening up the possibility of malicious third-parties including software that compromises our critical missions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiation-Hardened GaN HEMT and Cell Design, Modeling, and Fabrication for Nuclear Instrumentation Applications

Recent advances in nuclear power generation technologies show great promise for efficient, safe generation of carbon-free power in the near future. Consequently, many new generation reactor designs are being pursued by government and industry groups, including both fission- and fusion-based technologies. Radiation- and temperature-tolerant sensor technology continues to advance, yet development of the electronics/instrumentation technologies suitable for these environments have fallen behind. Industry has adequately addressed harsh environment electronics needs for low earth orbit satellites, but the much more extreme conditions associated with electronics placed near or in a reactor core remain unaddressed. This project investigates the use of gallium nitride (GaN) circuit technology to address the unique needs for sensor interface electronics and communications in reactor environments. This report provides a summary of the first year’s project activities related to developing and optimizing devices and circuits for this GaN high electronic mobility transistor (HEMT) process. Activities reported include multiple analog and digital circuit designs simulated using custom Verilog-A models generated from measured GaN devices fabricated in the target process. Digital circuit designs included fundamental logic circuits such as an inverter, NAND, NOR, AND and OR gates, as well as a 5-stage ring oscillator. Each design was simulated using an open-source SPICE simulator, and an integrated circuit layout was produced of each design for use in future fabrication. Analog circuit designs focused on the fundamental building blocks to be used to construct sensor interface and communications circuits. These included current mirrors, matched differential pairs, and a Gilbert cell mixer design, each with an associated integrated circuit layout. Layout tools used for these designs included two open-source packages—KLayout and Magic—which were customized for specific use with the OSU GaN process layers. Design rules and preliminary device extraction capabilities were built for the Magic tool to enable device extraction and subsequent netlist generation for SPICE simulation. Finally, future research directions for year two are summarized. When the year-two directions are implemented, the project will be in position to advance the state of the art in electronics for near- or in-reactor sensor interfacing and communications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

GaN HEMT Fabrication for Radiation-Hardened Sensing and Communications Electronics

Gallium nitride (GaN), a wide bandgap semiconductor, has vast potential to address two environment conditions associated with the application of electronics to nuclear power: elevated temperatures, and high levels of radiation. A process was developed at The Ohio State University (OSU) to enable fabrication of complex digital and analog electronics circuits for application to nuclear power environments such as locations near or in the reactor core or in spent nuclear fuel casks. Radio frequency (RF)-grade GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) devices were fabricated as part of this process. These were fabricated as depletion mode and enhancement mode devices. They have been electrically characterized and have demonstrated the expected performance. Behavioral models (Verilog-A) were developed from these device measurements to enable electrical simulation of GaN HEMT devices and circuits using common electronics simulation tools based on Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis (SPICE). A similar set of GaN HEMT devices is being developed to provide lower speed devices for logic and analog functions. These accomplishments position this technology for effective application to sensor interfacing, signal processing, and data communications in nuclear power plants, including operation in or near the reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovery of False Data Injection Attacks on Power Grid Frequency Controllers with Reinforcement Learning [Poster]

While inverter-based DER (distributed energy resources) are instrumental to integrating renewable energy into the power grid, they reduce the grid's mechanical inertia, thereby increasing the risk of frequency instabilities. To compensate for frequency instability risks, the grid must also undergo a transformation to include digital technologies that allow for two-way communication between the utility and customers. The current and future state of the power grid allows for building a cleaner energy landscape. However, the grid may also become vulnerable to novel cyber threats. To preemptively protect the power grid against elaborate cyber-attacks, we propose to discover potential threats via reinforcement learning. In this work, the focus is on studying false data injection attacks that target the control logic of frequency controllers. We show that a reinforcement learning agent can successfully discover how to best inject false data into linear droop controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating polyketide synthase engineering for high TRY production of biofuels and bioproducts (Final Technical Report)

Polyketide synthase (PKS) enzymes have a modular, deterministic logic that holds the potential to act as a flexible chemical factory for the biological production of a huge diversity of valuable small molecule compounds. However, engineering a custom PKS to produce a specific desired product currently requires years of trial and error, for reasons that remain poorly understood. In this project, we have developed a rapid, high throughput, Design-Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) cycle for polyketide synthases (PKSs) and demonstrate its utility for production of materials precursors. The objectives are 1) to develop a rapid, high-throughput (HT) DBTL cycle for PKSs that will enable production of a large number of unnatural, organic molecules on demand at high titer, rate, and yield (TRY); 2) to demonstrate the utility of the PKS DBTL cycle to produce three molecules: one commodity chemical (caprolactam or valerolactam) and two novel materials precursors (caprolactam or valerolactam derivatives); and 3) to demonstrate the utility of the PKS DBTL cycle to increase the TRY of one molecule (caprolactam or valerolactam). In this project, we have successfully demonstrated our high throughput PKS DBTL pipeline, and have biologically produced valerolactam and several other novel nylon monomers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tank Waste LDR Organics Data Summary for Sample-and-Send (Rev.1A)

The presence of organic chemicals regulated under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Land Disposal Restrictions (LDR) adds complexity to treating and disposing of the low activity fraction of Hanford tank waste if a low temperature treatment method such as grouting is used (SRNL-STI-2020-00228). The complexity arises from the fact that the baseline vitrification method is considered by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) as providing adequate thermal treatment for organics; a status not automatically extended to a lowtemperature process, such as solidifying the waste in a cementitious waste form. In addition, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) LDR program is intended to ensure that wastes are properly treated prior to disposal. Proper treatment makes hazardous waste less harmful to groundwater by reducing the mobility and/or toxicity of the hazardous constituents in the waste. EPA guidance indicates that stabilization/solidification of waste for organics could be considered impermissible dilution under the LDR dilution prohibition. In addition, waste storage activities at Hanford have required transferring and blending waste within the tank system and these activities have potentially altered the concentrations of the hazardous constituents. The LDR dilution prohibition found in 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 268.3 states that “… no generator, transporter, handler, or owner or operator of a treatment, storage, or disposal facility shall in any way dilute a restricted waste or the residual from treatment of a restricted waste as a substitute for adequate treatment …”. Hence, if LAW is to be treated using low temperature stabilization (such as cementation), then it is important to demonstrate both how past storage activities have contributed to the removal (by vacuum evaporation), or destruction (by in situ decomposition) of the LDR organics and how future retrieval and waste feed preparation will contribute to their removal (by filtration and ion exchange). Demonstrating these processes helps validate that cementation without additional organic treatment does not necessarily represent impermissible dilution. To aid in implementing cementitious solidification of Low Activity Waste (LAW), WRPS has been developing a regulatory and processing LDR treatment variance strategy termed “Sampleand-Send” that relies, in part, on demonstrating that in situ decomposition reactions along with historic evaporation of tank waste has destroyed or removed most of the LDR organics possibly associated with Hanford Tank Waste (SRNL-STI-2020-00582, SRNL-STI-2021-00453, SRNL-STI-2022-00391). Under the Sample-and-Send concept, Hanford tank waste would be retrieved, processed through a Tank-Side Cesium Removal-like system, and staged as a candidate feed that would then be sampled to confirm the waste acceptance criteria is met for solidification in an LAW cementitious treatment facility. If it can be shown that LDR organics are at concentrations below the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for cementitious stabilization and have been sufficiently removed (by historic evaporation or by filtration and ion exchange during Cs removal), destroyed (by historic in situ decomposition), or are not soluble in LAW above the WAC then additional organic treatment is not needed prior to creating a cementitious final waste form and the concept of Sample-and-Send would be proposed to establish a non-rulemaking site-specific treatment variance using the specified method of treatment “STABL” to remove sampling requirements of the waste form after treatment. Waste not meeting the WAC could either be routed to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant for LAW vitrification, or further processed by evaporation or chemical oxidation before solidifying in a cementitious waste form. A key component in implementing the Sample-and-Send strategy is identifying which of the 207 LDR organic compounds associated with the RCRA Part A permit application waste codes for the Double Shell Tanks (DSTs) and Single Shell Tanks (SSTs) and any applicable Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs) from 40 CFR 268.48 should be considered as potentially present and thus subject to regulation. In addition, it is also necessary to understand the solubility volatility, and reactivity of these compounds in LAW to identify which of the potentially present LDR organic compounds are not soluble above regulatory levels or are likely to have been removed by historic evaporation or destroyed by in situ decomposition reactions. If there are potentially present LDR organic compounds that have not been removed or destroyed and are soluble above regulatorily significant concentrations then a treatability variance may be needed for these species to eliminate any concerns pertaining to impermissible dilution. The spreadsheet accompanying this calculation report contains the data and logic computations needed to screen the list of 207 LDR organics associated with Hanford tank waste to identify those potentially present and to indicate which compounds may need to be included in a treatability variance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comparison of Adverse Meteorology Inputs for Emergency Management and Safety Basis Dispersion Modeling Applications at SRS

The MELCOR Accident Consequence Calculation System (MACCS), used for safety basis accident analyses at SRS, implements adjustment factors to consider the increased vertical turbulence associated with local surface roughness and the increased lateral turbulence associated with time-based plume meander. The two models used for SRS emergency planning radiological consequence assessment, i.e., Hotspot and Puff/Plume, currently do not have an option to input or apply diffusion adjustments for meander or surface roughness. Adverse meteorology conditions at SRS have been determined as E stability class and 1.3 meters per second wind speed for ground level releases. This is the input used for emergency planning models. Contrastingly safety basis analyses use a different input, representing adverse meteorology values as F stability class and wind speeds of 1.3 meters per second (for a ground level release). This results in an apparent discrepancy between the two approaches. In this report we document the differing modeling assumptions, discuss the logic behind each modeling approach used to represent local roughness and plume meander conditions, and numerically compare dispersion coefficients and concentration estimates obtained from each set of model inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generalized Nuclear Code of Accounts for Cost Estimation Standardization

This is a joint INL-EPRI study. Link to corresponding page at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002028937 Recent Advanced Reactor (AR) designs typically offer features and attributes that depart from traditional water-cooled reactors in terms of fuel forms, coolants, structural materials, size, safety margins, and other important design and operational aspects. These departures, relative to the industry experience, will likely present a challenge for potential owner-operators when evaluating one or more AR designs for commercial deployment on a like-for-like basis. This is further exacerbated with new classes of reactors gaining prominence (e.g., microreactors) and new emerging applications (e.g., floating barge reactors or space propulsion reactors). The differences in design-specific technologies are compounded by the differences in approach to cost estimation. The lack of consistency in build up toward cost estimates creates a challenge when comparing competing concepts and evaluating their associated cost drivers. The outcome of a 2019 Scoping Study conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) indicated the need for a cost modeling guide (CMG), which would be underpinned by a technology-neutral and inclusive Generalized Nuclear Code of Accounts (GN-COA). A code of accounts (COA) is a tool by which costs are identified in even more specific categories, providing clarity on what specific costs are included in an estimate. A parallel independent effort was meanwhile taking place at Idaho National Laboratory via funding by the Systems Analysis Integration (SA&I) campaign of the Office of Nuclear Energy under the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE-NE) to also update the COA structure to enable more flexibility and encompass a wider variety of reactor technologies. After being made aware of these synergistic efforts, the two parties decided to combine efforts and develop a joint new standard format for nuclear cost estimation that builds on previous structures. This document describes the development of this joint GN-COA and provides guidance on the implementation of the tool, which is provided as the associated GN-COA Excel document. The main attributes of this novel COA format are that all items are functionally defined (in order to be technology and application agnostic) and grouped into logical arrangements that facilitate the tabulation of costs for reactor constructions under consideration. The intent is for the GN-COA to form a standard that is endorsed by future vendors and customers.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating polyketide synthase engineering for high TRY production of biofuels and bioproducts (CRADA Final Report)

Polyketide synthase (PKS) enzymes have a modular, deterministic logic that holds the potential to act as a flexible chemical factory for the biological production of a huge diversity of valuable small molecule compounds. However, engineering a custom PKS to produce a specific desired product currently requires years of trial and error, for reasons that remain poorly understood. In this project, we have developed a rapid, high throughput, Design-Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) cycle for polyketide synthases (PKSs) and demonstrate its utility for production of materials precursors. The objectives are 1) to develop a rapid, high-throughput (HT) DBTL cycle for PKSs that will enable production of a large number of unnatural, organic molecules on demand at high titer, rate, and yield (TRY); 2) to demonstrate the utility of the PKS DBTL cycle to produce three molecules: one commodity chemical (caprolactam or valerolactam) and two novel materials precursors (caprolactam or valerolactam derivatives); and 3) to demonstrate the utility of the PKS DBTL cycle to increase the TRY of one molecule (caprolactam or valerolactam). In this project, we have successfully demonstrated our high throughput PKS DBTL pipeline, and have biologically produced valerolactam and several other novel nylon monomers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Creating a Digital Twin for a Hydropower System through 3D Object Modeling: Alder Dam FY23

Hydropower stands as the world's leading source of renewable electricity, with hydropower plants spanning the globe. A typical hydropower plant comprises essential components including the governor, excitation system, generator, thrust bearing, hydraulic turbine, transformer, main lead, metering and control devices, tailwater depression system, and dissolved oxygen monitoring. Each of these components undergoes various measures and monitoring procedures. These measurements are collected through a diverse array of systems, encompassing standalone sensors, programmable logic controllers (PLCs), Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and data acquisition and integration platforms like OSI/PI.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrating Load-Shaping Capabilities of Cost Minimizing Heat Pump Water Heater Controls with Varying Price Profiles

Increased penetration of photovoltaics and electrification of traditionally gas appliances are exacerbating existing challenges in cost-effectively balancing electricity grid supply and demand. Decarbonization without incurring expensive transmission and distribution system capacity increases requires shifting building loads from peak demand times to peak renewable production times. Grid operators are evaluating new ways of encouraging load shifting, including using time-varying price structures to provide a financial incentive. If devices incorporate price-responsive controls, a price profile could be designed to yield a wide variety of load curves as needed to optimize grid functionality. Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are an ideal device for price-responsive controls because the storage tank enables them to optimize the timing of electricity consumption without impacting hot water delivery service. This paper presents work demonstrating how price-responsive controls for HPWHs can provide different load profiles, as needed to stabilize the grid, in response to different price profiles. HPWH manufacturers now include web API and CTA-2045 communication capabilities which enable sending load shaping control signals. Pilot studies and preliminary programs have utilized these capabilities with uniform control strategies to reduce 4-9 PM electricity consumption. However, no studies have developed flexible controls capable of both a) responding to constantly varying price profiles and b) customizing logic to match the needs of each HPWH. Berkeley Lab's CalFlexHub project is pioneering price-driven load flexibility by developing and deploying cost-minimizing controls utilizing setpoint setting signals for fleets of HPWHs in response to varying price profiles. Control development is based on simulations using the Flexible Heat Pump Water Heater Performance Predictor which captures the control decisions of a residential, integrated HPWH manufacturer’s on-board controller. The proposed cost-reducing controls respond to constantly changing price profiles, providing the ability to change the price profile to generate load curves as needed to maintain grid stability. Preliminary simulations studying the load shaping capabilities of price-responsive controls on a fleet of 60 HPWHs have demonstrated an average of a) 135.4% increases in load during low-price periods, b) >36.8% reductions in electricity peak-price period, and c) 6.2% electricity cost savings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energetic Particles - microturbulence interaction thrust (EP SIWG white paper)

This white paper outlines a strategic approach to Energetic Particle (EP) research, aimed at applying the results to the future burning devices such as ITER. Our goal is to deepen the understanding of the interplay between plasma background microturbulence and diverse species of energetic ions in burning plasma devices. This strategy is poised to advance our knowledge in this crucial area of fusion science, paving the way for significant breakthroughs in plasma physics and fusion energy research. We consider the confinement of energetic ions such as auxiliary heating beams, minority ions from ICRH, and fusion product alpha particles. Recent studies have underscored the potential of EP/microturbulence interaction to enhance fusion plasma performance by stabilizing microturbulence. However, it also poses risks, such as exacerbating Alfvénic eigenmode (AE) instabilities, which could compromise the sustainability of plasma discharge by causing EP losses. The interplay between EPs and background microturbulence is evident in the phenomenon of effective pitch angle scattering, a crucial aspect of the quasilinear (QL) theory. This theory is integral to developing numerically-efficient yet comprehensive and self-consistent approaches, recently employed to investigate the relaxation of energetic particle populations in the holistic modeling of fusion-grade plasmas. The primary objectives of this white paper thrust encompass a dual focus. First is that we need to delve into the mechanisms through which microturbulence engenders effective pitch angle scattering. This investigation will entail the examination of the presence of known or self-consistently predicted spectra of modes accountable for microturbulence. In these explorations, electrostatic microturbulence serves as a logical initial stride towards achieving the trust's objectives. This endeavor is anticipated to yield formulations expressing the parametric dependencies of the effective pitch angle scattering frequency on variables such as thermal plasma electron and/or ion temperatures, as well as their respective thermal conductivities. In our second objective, we aim to delve into the intricate formation of zonal flow (ZF) structures amidst the complex interplay of microturbulence and Alfvenic eigenmodes (AEs). This endeavor poses greater challenges as we seek to unravel the macroscopic manifestations influenced by microturbulence, termed as zonal structures (ZS), stemming from microturbulence-induced ZF. Drawing from this understanding, we anticipate employing a QL approach to yield comprehensive insights into the distribution function of energetic particles (EP) within phase space. This method entails resolving the dominant multidimensional phase space diffusion processes while effectively averaging over the rapid ballistic responses. Nevertheless, substantial strides remain imperative to realize a comprehensive whole-device modeling framework. This entails meticulous verification and validation exercises against experimental observations, as well as rigorous benchmarking against theoretical frameworks and numerical simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a Time-domain Cosmic-Ray-Muon Tagger for the NEXUS Low-background Cryogenic Facility

Quantifying the effects of radiation on the operation of qubits both as quantum information systems as well as particle detectors has emerged as a pressing issue in quantum science in recent years. We present an overview of the design, operation, and deployment of a 90-$\mathrm{in}^2$ three-panel muon detector for use in the NEXUS experimental facility at Fermilab to temporally isolate correlated errors in qubits and determine if they possess an astrophysical origin. Constructed with three scintillator-attached PMTs read out with NIM modules in a triply-coincident logic scheme, we measure a surface-level muon luminosity of 9.7425 muons per second---consistent with an average surface-level cosmic-ray flux of approximately one muon per square centimeter per minute. Integrating the NIM modules with an MCC 128 DAQ HAT and Raspberry Pi, a Python script records exactly when a muon struck the detector and writes a timestamp to a log file for follow-up cross referencing. This experiment will broadly contribute to further studies aimed at understanding the source and mitigation of information loss in qubits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work, we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the “clean and dirty” setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in the concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Coating Compositions and Microstructures to Improve Uptime and Operational Flexibility in Cyclic, Low-Load Thermal Utility Plants

GE, the University of Tennessee, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory collaborated from 2020 to 2023 developing two key technologies for improving the viability of fuel switching and load following in thermal utility plants: a) cost-effective weld overlay compositions for boiler tubing b) cathodic arc coatings that deliver improvements in both erosion resistance and oxidation resistance in high temperature steam for HP turbine blades The team worked through a robust, logical project map to de-risk these two technologies and advance them from TRL 3 to TRL 6. For the cost-effective weld overlay, the team developed a ferritic filler material which was fabricated at a vendor for 18% the average market cost of Inconel 625 wire, had a corrosion rate 3x lower in conditions simulating a biomass-fired superheater and 10x lower in conditions simulating a coal-fired superheater, and was fabricated into prototype overlaid tubing that passed ASME requirements including transverse bending, dye penetrant inspection, and ASTM G-76 evaluation. For the cathodic arc coatings applied to steam turbine blades, the team developed a novel composition that was successfully transferred to a qualified vendor. The vendor was able to produce coated prototypes with 4x the as-deposited erosion resistance and 10.4x the post-steam-exposure erosion resistance of the TiN coating the vendor currently applies on GE steam turbine components, without significantly increasing process cost. These coated prototypes also passed a GE inspection and showed favorable performance in high temperature erosion, nanoindentation, sliding wear, scratch adhesion, and high cycle fatigue testing. If successfully deployed by GE, it is anticipated that the technologies will enable the following: • 25%-50% increase in time between outages for both boilers and HP turbines. • 50% decrease in cost for weld overlay on a per foot basis relative to todays NiCr alloys. • Adequate oxidation resistance and erosion for HP turbine inlet steam at >620°C and >220 bar. • No need for changes in component supply chain or any notable Capital Expenditures. 5 Decreasing component cost, increasing performance, and extending time between outages represent direct value propositions to GE and their customers. For the American consumer, these objectives translate into increased grid reliability (fewer unexpected outages), decreased Levelized Cost of Electricity, and improved environmental health (low-loading/load following to accelerate penetration of renewables). The results also have implications for wear resistant tooling, wire arc additive manufacturing, more durable components for syngas cleanup, and deployment of more efficient thermochemical pathways for carbon negative fuel production

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

IBR Short Circuit Modeling in ETAP

Mohammad Zadeh from ETAP presented various modeling improvements that included the following: • Address convergence issues by using complete Norton Equivalent model including the IBR series filter impedance. • Fault ride through identification within iterations while short circuit results have not been converged and how that may impact final SC results. • Options for FRT curve 1- using a timer to lock FRT logic vs a hysteresis in FRT curve to avoid unwanted toggling. • Report recent co-operation between software vendors (Aspen, CAPE and ETAP) for adopting a C++ interface for IBR blackbox SC modeling. There was lot of interest to know about the model improvements that are being considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗