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At least 757 records · Page 42

Development and assessment of a reactor system prognosis model with physics-guided machine learning

Autonomous control systems provide recommendations to help operators in decision-making during plant operations ranging from normal operation to accident management. An important step of autonomous control is prognosis. In nuclear engineering domain, prognosis is the process of predicting future conditions of a system or equipment based on present signs and symptoms of a fault. The prognosis model allows predicting future reactor states for possible candidate control strategies so that the outcomes can be evaluated to determine the best control strategy. The prognosis model requires representing direct relationships between the symptoms and the predictions. In nuclear engineering, computational simulations are approximate representations of the operation of the real system. However, prognosis with computational simulations requires high computation power and time due to possible large number of scenarios. Necessary computation resources can be reduced with machine learning (ML) approach for fast predictions by building a surrogate function using the simulation data. A critical issue is, ML models are ignorant of physical knowledge, and these models approximate statistical relationships between the system variables. This ignorance can produce results that are inconsistent with physical laws, even if an optimal result is achieved from a mathematical point of view. Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) is an approach to tackle this issue. Here, this work formulates and illustrates a framework to guide development and assessment of the ML-based prognosis model for autonomous control systems. The development of the prognosis model considers the training of a ML model which consists of optimizing many aspects of the ML approach. The assessment of the prognosis model considers training data limitations and uncertainties of the ML approach. Prognosis models with standalone ML and PGML are developed and assessed on the loss-of-flow scenario of Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The results indicate that PGML based prognosis model has the best performance compared to other prognosis models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. Simply stated, the problem reduces to the following: how can we capture the knowledge of an expert when the expert is unable to clearly formulate how he or she arrives at a decision? A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision may have been made. Unique to our work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the expert may possibly base his fuzzy decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible fuzzy rules for closing a customer service center and illustrate the importance of having the decision closely relate to the conditions under consideration.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

Overview of the PLEXIL Plan Execution Technology and its Applications in Autonomous Piloting Projects at NASA

Automated planning is a key Artificial Intelligence technology enabling Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and the eminent reality of Urban Air Mobility (UAM). It produces plans, which formalize procedures often performed by humans. Plans differ from other kinds of computer programs in their ability to react and interact with a dynamically changing environment. Aviation plans must encode the procedural knowledge, reasoning capability, and capacity for multi-tasking held by competent human pilots. Correct execution of these plans (performed by software called an executive) in the dynamic airspace environment is vital to the success of each automated flight, and the safety of the vehicle and all things in its path. In the early 2000s NASA developed a plan representation language and executive called PLEXIL (Plan Execution Interchange Language) that has successfully been applied in several NASA aviation and UAS projects. Autonomy Operating System (AOS), Cockpit Hierarchical Automated Planning and Execution (CHAP-E), and ICAROUS are all projects that have used PLEXIL to help encode and automatically execute flight procedures, some normally performed by human pilots. AOS also automates a subset of pilot/Air Traffic Control communication towards enabling UAS entry into the National Airspace. PLEXIL has been open-source software since 2008 and has seen usage in a wide range of prototypical autonomy applications in academia, government, and industry. In this presentation, we describe PLEXIL and highlight its significant accomplishments in the aviation domain.

Dalal, Michael↗

QPA-CLIPS: A language and representation for process control

QPA-CLIPS is an extension of CLIPS oriented towards process control applications. Its constructs define a dependency network of process actions driven by sensor information. The language consists of three basic constructs: TASK, SENSOR, and FILTER. TASK's define the dependency network describing alternative state transitions for a process. SENSOR's and FILTER's define sensor information sources used to activate state transitions within the network. Deftemplate's define these constructs and their run-time environment is an interpreter knowledge base, performing pattern matching on sensor information and so activating TASK's in the dependency network. The pattern matching technique is based on the repeatable occurrence of a sensor data pattern. QPA-CIPS has been successfully tested on a SPARCStation providing supervisory control to an Allen-Bradley PLC 5 controller driving molding equipment.

Freund, Thomas G.↗

General Temporal Knowledge for Planning and Data Mining

We consider the architecture of systems that combine temporal planning and plan execution and introduce a layer of temporal reasoning that potential1y improves both the communication between humans and such systems, and the performance of the temporal planner itself. In particular, this additional layer simultaneously supports more flexibility in specifying and maintaining temporal constraints on plans within an uncertain and changing execution environment, and the ability to understand and trace the progress of plan execution. It is shown how a representation based on single set of abstractions of temporal information can be used to characterize the reasoning underlying plan generation and execution interpretation. The complexity of such reasoning is discussed.

Morris, Robert↗

Heliostat Consortium: Update on Resource, Training, and Education Development and Women+ in Concentrating Solar

One of the major barriers to Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) industry growth in the U.S. is the lack of accessibility of expert knowledge, a lack of a stable workforce pipeline, and little public awareness of the technology area. Improved Resource, Training, and Education (RTE) is needed to address these gaps, to draw workers into the field from diverse technology areas and backgrounds, and to reduce the learning curves of newcomers into the industry. As part of the RTE topic under the NREL-led Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon), a public online resource database has been created to support information sharing across the heliostat and CSP community. Here, information will be presented on the existing and planned database resources, including introductory information about CSP and heliostats, a reference library of texts and publications, educational videos, a CSP power tower plant database and case studies, a contact list of component suppliers and developers, and a list of available software/metrology tools. Women+ in Concentrating Solar is a newly created organization to promote the education, professional development, and advancement of underrepresented genders in the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) community in a way that includes diverse backgrounds, attitudes, and perspectives. The main objectives of the groups are to provide the following opportunities for underrepresented genders: 1) organize events to provide networking opportunities and community building, 2) boost partnerships and scientific collaboration, 3) create resources to facilitate knowledge and experience sharing, 4) provide mentorship programs to support those new to the industry, 5) bring visibility to underrepresented genders and attract more to the field, and 6) promote Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) and engage minorities and underrepresented groups. Initial activities being pursued by the group include creating an expert database to support event organizers in recruiting speakers with representation of all gender identities, hosting online networking and webinar events, organizing conference events including seminars and networking/social events, and establishing a mentorship program to connect members in the CSP community across the globe. The group is open to all genders and has grown to over 60 members in its first few months.

concentrating solar↗

Tissue scale agent-based simulation of premalignant progressions in Barrett’s esophagus

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is a benign condition of the distal esophagus that initiates a multistage pathway to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Short of frequent intrusive (and costly) surveillance, effective screening for neoplasia in BE populations is yet to be established since progressors are rare and virtually undetectable without routine biopsies, which often sample only a small portion of the BE tissue. As a result, reliable estimation of the true prevalence of dysplasia in a BE population and evidence-based optimization of screening for at-risk individuals is challenging. Data-driven microsimulations, i.e., model-generated instances of disease history in a predefined virtual population, have found utility in the EAC screening literature as low-overhead alternatives to real-world hypothesis testing of optimal interventions for dysplasia. Despite the successes, computational limitations, paucity of knowledge and data on Barrett’s dysplasia, and the complexities of disease progression as a multiscale multiphysics process have hindered the treatment of disease progression in BE as a spatial process. Agent-based modeling of nucleation and proliferation processes in dysplasia warrants exploration in this context as an approximation that operates at a trade-off between computational tractability and precise representation of the composition and physics of the substrate (tissue). In this study, we describe spatially resolved simulations of premalignant progression toward EAC in a coarse-grained model of Barrett’s tissue that resolves the metaplastic tissue at a length scale of 0.42 mm (~3300 crypts/mm 2 ). Finally, the model is calibrated to reproduce historical high-grade dysplasia prevalence when model-generated patients are screened using the Seattle protocol.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty

Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

User interface design principles for the SSM/PMAD automated power system

Martin Marietta has developed a user interface for the space station module power management and distribution (SSM/PMAD) automated power system testbed which provides human access to the functionality of the power system, as well as exemplifying current techniques in user interface design. The testbed user interface was designed to enable an engineer to operate the system easily without having significant knowledge of computer systems, as well as provide an environment in which the engineer can monitor and interact with the SSM/PMAD system hardware. The design of the interface supports a global view of the most important data from the various hardware and software components, as well as enabling the user to obtain additional or more detailed data when needed. The components and representations of the SSM/PMAD testbed user interface are examined. An engineer's interactions with the system are also described.

Jakstas, Laura M.↗

Bridging molecular-scale interfacial science with continuum-scale models

Solid–water interfaces are crucial for clean water, conventional and renewable energy, and effective nuclear waste management. However, reflecting the complexity of reactive interfaces in continuum-scale models is a challenge, leading to oversimplified representations that often fail to predict real-world behavior. This is because these models use fixed parameters derived by averaging across a wide physicochemical range observed at the molecular scale. Recent studies have revealed the stochastic nature of molecular-level surface sites that define a variety of reaction mechanisms, rates, and products even across a single surface. To bridge the molecular knowledge and predictive continuum-scale models, we propose to represent surface properties with probability distributions rather than with discrete constant values derived by averaging across a heterogeneous surface. This conceptual shift in continuum-scale modeling requires exponentially rising computational power. By incorporating our molecular-scale understanding of solid–water interfaces into continuum-scale models we can pave the way for next generation critical technologies and novel environmental solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Design and Impacts of Land-Biogenic-Atmosphere Coupling in the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) Modeling System

Land-Atmosphere coupling is typically designed and implemented independently for physical (e.g. water and energy) and chemical (e.g. biogenic emissions and surface depositions)-based models and applications. Differences in scale, data requirements, and physics thus limit the ability of Earth System models to be fully coupled in a consistent manner. In order for the physical-chemical-biological coupling to be complete, treatment of the land in terms of surface classification, condition, fluxes, and emissions must be considered simultaneously and coherently across all components. In this study, we investigate a coupling strategy for the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model that incorporates the traditionally disparate fluxes of water and energy through NASA's LIS (Land Information System) and biogenic emissions through BEIS (Biogenic Emissions Inventory System) and MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) into the atmosphere. In doing so, inconsistencies across model inputs and parameter data are resolved such that the emissions from a particular plant species are consistent with the heat and moisture fluxes calculated for that land cover type. In turn, the response of the atmospheric turbulence and mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) acts on the identical surface type, fluxes, and emissions for each. In addition, the coupling of dust emission within the NU-WRF system is performed in order to ensure consistency and to maximize the benefit of high-resolution land representation in LIS. The impacts of those self-consistent components on' the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are then evaluated through the WRF-Chem-GOCART (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) model. Overall, this ambitious project highlights the current difficulties and future potential of fully coupled. components. in Earth System models, and underscores the importance of the iLEAPS community in supporting improved knowledge of processes and innovative approaches for models and observations.

Tan, Qian↗

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.

atmospheric inversion↗

Semi-Automated, Object-Based Tomography of Dislocation Structures

The characterization of the three-dimensional arrangement of dislocations is important for many analyses in materials science. Dislocation tomography in transmission electron microscopy is conventionally accomplished through intensity-based reconstruction algorithms. Although such methods work successfully, a disadvantage is that they require many images to be collected over a large tilt range. Here, we present an alternative, semi-automated object-based approach that reduces the data collection requirements by drawing on the prior knowledge that dislocations are line objects. Our approach consists of three steps: (1) initial extraction of dislocation line objects from the individual frames, (2) alignment and matching of these objects across the frames in the tilt series, and (3) tomographic reconstruction to determine the full three-dimensional configuration of the dislocations. Drawing on innovations in graph theory, we employ a node-line segment representation for the dislocation lines and a novel arc-length mapping scheme to relate the dislocations to each other across the images in the tilt series. We demonstrate the method for a dataset collected from a dislocation network imaged by diffraction-contrast scanning transmission electron microscopy. Based on these results and a detailed uncertainty analysis for the algorithm, we discuss opportunities for optimizing data collection and further automating the method.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Principles for Architecting Autonomous Systems

This paper distills principles for developing autonomous systems based on experience and lessons learned from past efforts. The purpose of these principles is to establish a common understanding and knowledge of architectural elements to guide the development of next-generation multi-mission autonomous systems and ensure the safe and productive operation of space assets. An attempt has been made to ground these principles in fundamentals that should withstand the test of time while allowing for and enabling the advancement of technologies. They are not intended to prescribe a design nor a software representation. There may be multiple designs that can honor these principles. These principles are focused on autonomy for robotic assets. As such, they do not address autonomy for crewed assets nor autonomy that can collectively generate intelligent behavior without top-level system cognizance (e.g., intelligent swarm behavior). These areas would be a subject of future efforts.

Day, John↗

Geometric prior of multi-resolution yielding manifolds and the local closest point projection for nearly non-smooth plasticity

Elastoplasticity models often introduce a scalar-valued yield function to implicitly represent the boundary between elastic and plastic material states. Here this paper introduces a new alternative where the yield envelope is represented by a manifold of which the topology and the geometry are learned from a set of data points in a parametric space (e.g. principal stress space, π-plane). Here, deep geometric learning enables us to reconstruct a highly complex yield envelope by breaking it down into multiple coordinate charts. The global atlas that consists of these coordinate charts in return allows us to represent the yield surface via multiple overlapping patches, each with a specific local parametrization. This setup provides several advantages over the classical implicit function representation approach. For instance, the availability of coordinate charts enables us to introduce an alternative stress integration algorithm where the trial stress may project directly on a local patch and hence circumvent the issues related to non-smoothness and the lack of convexity of yield surfaces. Meanwhile, the local parametric approach also enables us to predict hardening/softening locally in the parametric space, even without complete knowledge of the yield surface. Comparisons between the classical yield function approach on the non-smooth plasticity and anisotropic cam-clay plasticity model are provided to demonstrate the capacity of the models for highly precise yield surface and the feasibility of the implementation of the learned model in the local stress integration algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Building distributed rule-based systems using the AI Bus

The AI Bus software architecture was designed to support the construction of large-scale, production-quality applications in areas of high technology flux, running heterogeneous distributed environments, utilizing a mix of knowledge-based and conventional components. These goals led to its current development as a layered, object-oriented library for cooperative systems. This paper describes the concepts and design of the AI Bus and its implementation status as a library of reusable and customizable objects, structured by layers from operating system interfaces up to high-level knowledge-based agents. Each agent is a semi-autonomous process with specialized expertise, and consists of a number of knowledge sources (a knowledge base and inference engine). Inter-agent communication mechanisms are based on blackboards and Actors-style acquaintances. As a conservative first implementation, we used C++ on top of Unix, and wrapped an embedded Clips with methods for the knowledge source class. This involved designing standard protocols for communication and functions which use these protocols in rules. Embedding several CLIPS objects within a single process was an unexpected problem because of global variables, whose solution involved constructing and recompiling a C++ version of CLIPS. We are currently working on a more radical approach to incorporating CLIPS, by separating out its pattern matcher, rule and fact representations and other components as true object oriented modules.

Schultz, Roger D.↗

Detecting Edges in Images by Use of Fuzzy Reasoning

A method of processing digital image data to detect edges includes the use of fuzzy reasoning. The method is completely adaptive and does not require any advance knowledge of an image. During initial processing of image data at a low level of abstraction, the nature of the data is indeterminate. Fuzzy reasoning is used in the present method because it affords an ability to construct useful abstractions from approximate, incomplete, and otherwise imperfect sets of data. Humans are able to make some sense of even unfamiliar objects that have imperfect high-level representations. It appears that to perceive unfamiliar objects or to perceive familiar objects in imperfect images, humans apply heuristic algorithms to understand the images

Dominguez, Jesus A.↗

Mathematical crew motion disturbance models for spacecraft control system design

Several techniques for modeling the disturbances to a spacecraft's attitude caused by moving crew members are presented. These disturbances can be the largest moments acting on a manned spacecraft, and knowledge of their effect is important in the sizing, design, and analysis/simulation of spacecraft attitude control systems. The modeling techniques are identified as two principal types: deterministic and stochastic. Three techniques of each type are presented. The deterministic models include point-mass motion derivatives and a discussion on dynamic models of moving crew members. The stochastic techniques are highlighted by a Fourier transform method and the representation of long-term crew disturbance activities as outputs from appropriately designed filters. A z-transform technique is developed to obtain a difference-equation form of stochastic models for use on digital computers. An appendix derives spacecraft equations of motion which can be used with many of the models discussed.

Conway, B. A.↗