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The analysis of the Apollo radiation environment concentrates on solar flare particle events. These particles are the major radiation hazard to Apollo. The flux of cosmic rays is too low to be significant, and the passage of the space- craft through the Van Allen belts is fast enough to keep the dose to a low level.
A new method to determin an optimal retry policy and for use in retry of fault characterization is presented. An optimal retry policy for a given fault characteristic, which determines the maximum allowable retry durations to minimize the total task completion time was derived. The combined fault characterization and retry decision, in which the characteristics of fault are estimated simultaneously with the determination of the optimal retry policy were carried out. Two solution approaches were developed, one based on the point estimation and the other on the Bayes sequential decision. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the first approach, and the backward induction for testing hypotheses in the second approach. Numerical examples in which all the durations associated with faults have monotone hazard functions, e.g., exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions are presented. These are standard distributions commonly used for modeling analysis and faults.
Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.
In 1986, NASA funded a project to modernize the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels, including the replacement of obsolescent controls with a modern, automated distributed control system (DCS). The project effort on this system included an independent safety analysis (ISA) of the automation system. The purpose of the ISA was to evaluate the completeness of the hazard analyses which had already been performed on the Modernization Project. The ISA approach followed a tailoring of the risk assessment approach widely used on existing nuclear power plants. The tailoring of the nuclear industry oriented risk assessment approach to the automation system and its role in reliability-based design of the automation system is the subject of this paper.
The hazards of lightning strokes to aircraft fuel tanks have been investigated in artificial-lightning-generation facilities specifically constructed to duplicate closely the natural lightning discharges to air craft determined through flight research programs and analysis of lightning-damaged aircraft over a period of many years. Explosion studies were made in an environmental explosion chamber using small fuel tanks under various simulated flight conditions. The results showed that there is a primary hazard whenever there is direct puncture of the fuel-tank wall, whereas the ignition of fuel by hot spots on tank walls due to lightning strikes is unlikely. Punctures of fuel-tank walls by artificial-lightning discharges produced explosions of the fuel in the mixture range from excessively lean to rich mixtures. None of the aluminum alloys, 0.081 inch thick or over, were punctured by the laboratory discharges representative of natural-lightning discharges to aircraft; however, reliance on this wall thickness for complete protection would not be justified, because occasional strokes are known to be of greater magnitude and because statistics reveal variations in the damage pattern. Data gathered by the Lightning and Transients Research Institute on lightning strokes to aircraft show that 90 percent of the strokes recorded have occurred in the temperature range of -10° to +10° C, where many of the jet fuels are flammable but where aviation gasoline is overrich. Also, 10 percent of the strokes recorded have been to the wings, which are the principal fuel-storage areas for modern aircraft. Thus, there is a hazard, particularly for jet fuels. Certain protective measures are indicated by the studies to date, such as the use of lightning diverter rods, thickening of the wing skin in areas near the most probable stroke paths, and the use of fuel-tank liners in critical areas.
Small scale terrain hazards, such as rocks, slopes, and craters, can pose significant risk to landing spacecraft and rover or payload deployment. Onboard Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) systems scan and analyze the landing area for these hazards in real time during descent, and divert the spacecraft to the safest touchdown site. The computationally efficient Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) algorithm combined with a flash LIDAR is an HDA system geared towards small robotic spacecraft. Rather than creating and analyzing a digital elevation map (DEM) from potentially many overlapping range images, S4 operates directly on a single flash LIDAR image. Extending prior work that has analyzed S4 performance for Mars landing using extensive simulations, this paper evaluates S4 performance using actual flash LIDAR images of an artificial hazard field acquired during a 2014 helicopter field test in Death Valley, CA. In particular, we describe LIDAR characterization and calibration, creation of ground truth elevation and safety maps, creation of ground truth sensor poses, actual S4 algorithm processing, and performance analysis. The results show that the safety cost images produced by S4 are remarkably close to the ground truth safety map (computed offline by an HDA algorithm developed under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project) at significantly reduced computational cost, confirming S4 as a viable candidate algorithm for onboard spacecraft HDA.
Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.
Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.
A statistical treatment of the radiation hazards to astronauts due to solar cosmic ray protons is reported to determine shielding requirements for solar proton events. More recent data are incorporated into the present analysis in order to improve the accuracy of the predicted mission fluence and dose. The effects of the finite data sample are discussed. Mission fluence and dose versus shield thickness data are presented for mission lengths up to 3 years during periods of maximum and minimum solar activity; these correspond to various levels of confidence that the predicted hazard will not be exceeded.
The 28-foot storm surge from Hurricane Katrina pushed inland along bays and rivers for a distance of 12 miles in some areas, contributing to the damage or destruction of about half of the fleet of boats in coastal Mississippi. Most of those boats had sought refuge in back bays and along rivers. Some boats were spared damage because the owners chose their mooring site well. Gulf mariners need a spatial analysis tool that provides guidance on the safest places to anchor their boats during future hurricanes. This product would support NOAA s mission to minimize the effects of coastal hazards through awareness, education, and mitigation strategies and could be incorporated in the Coastal Risk Atlas decision support tool.
The Mars Phoenix Lander launched on August 4, 2007 and successfully landed on Mars 10 months later on May 25, 2008. Landing ellipse predicts and hazard maps were key in selecting safe surface targets for Phoenix. Hazard maps were based on terrain slopes, geomorphology maps and automated rock counts of MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images. The expected landing dispersion which led to the selection of Phoenix's surface target is discussed as well as the actual landing dispersion predicts determined during operations in the weeks, days, and hours before landing. A statistical assessment of these dispersions is performed, comparing the actual landing-safety probabilities to criteria levied by the project. Also discussed are applications for this statistical analysis which were used by the Phoenix project. These include using the statistical analysis used to verify the effectiveness of a pre-planned maneuver menu and calculating the probability of future maneuvers.
A spaceflight-compatible flow cytometer would be useful for the diagnosis of astronaut illness during long duration spaceflight and for conducting in-flight research to evaluate the effects of microgravity on human physiology. Until recently, the primary limitations preventing the development of a spaceflight compatible flow cytometer have been largely mechanical. Standard commercially available flow cytometers are large, complex instruments that use high-energy lasers and require significant training to operate. Standard flow cytometers function by suspending the particles to be analyzed inside a sheath fluid for analysis. This requires the presence of several liters of sheath fluid for operation, and generates a corresponding amount of liquid hazardous waste. The particles are then passed through a flow cell which uses the fluid mechanical property of hydrodynamic focusing to place the cells in single-file (laminar flow) as they pass through a laser beam for scanning and evaluation. Many spaceflight experiments have demonstrated that fluid physics is dramatically altered in microgravity (MSF [Manned Space Flight] Fluid Physics Data Sheet-August 1997) and previous studies have shown that sheath-fluid based hydrodynamic focusing may also be altered during microgravity (Crucian et al, 2000). For these reasons it is likely that any spaceflight compatible design for a flow cytometer would abandon the sheath fluid requirement. The elimination of sheath fluid would remove both the problems of weight associated with large volumes of liquids as well as the large volume of liquid waste generated. It would also create the need for a method to create laminar particle flow distinct from the standard sheath-fluid based method. The spaceflight prototype instrument is based on a recently developed commercial flow cytometer possessing a novel flow cell design that creates single-particle laser scanning and evaluation without the need for sheath-fluid based hydrodynamic focusing. This instrument also possesses a number of design advances that make it conditionally microgravity compatible: it is highly miniaturized and lightweight, uses a low energy diode laser, has a small number of moving parts, does not use sheath fluid and does not generate significant liquid waste. Although possessing certain limitations, the commercial cytometer functions operationally like a standard bench top laboratory flow cytometer, aspirating liquid particle samples and generating histogram or dot-plot data in standard FCS file format. In its current configuration however, the cytometer is limited to three parameter/two-color capability (two color PMTs + forward scatter), does not allow compensation between colors, does not allow linear analysis and is operated by rather inflexible software with limited capabilities. This is due to the fact that the cytometer has been designed and marketed as an instrument specific to a few particular assays, not as a multipurpose cytometer.
High Energy Arcing Faults (HEAFs) are hazardous events in which an electrical arc leads to the rapid release of energy in the form of heat, vaporized metal, and mechanical force. In Nuclear Power Plants, these events are often accompanied by loss of essential power and complicated shutdowns. To confirm the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methodology in NUREG/CR-6850, which was formulated based on limited observational data, the NRC led an international experimental campaign from 2014 to 2016. The results of these experiments uncovered an unexpected hazard posed by aluminum components in or near electrical equipment and the potential for unanalyzed equipment failures. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in support of the NRC work, collaborated with NIST, BSI, KEMA, and NRC to support the full-scale HEAF test campaign in 2022. SNL provided high speed visible and infrared video/data of ten tests that collected data from HEAFs originated on copper and aluminum buses inside switchgears and bus ducts. Part of the SNL scope was to place cameras with high-speed data collection at different vantage points within the test facility to provide NRC a more complete and granular view of the test events.
At space vehicle launch sites such as Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), toxic vapors and hazardous liquid wastes result from the handling of commodities (hypergolic fuels and oxidizers), most notably from transfer operations where fuel and oxidizer are transferred from bulk storage tanks or transfer tankers to space launch vehicles. During commodity transfer at CCAFS and KSC, wet chemical scrubbers (typically containing four scrubbing towers) are used to neutralize fuel saturated vapors from vent systems on tanks and tanker trailers. For fuel vapors, a citric acid solution is used to scrub out most of the hydrazine. Operation of both the hypergolic fuel and oxidizer vapor scrubbers generates waste scrubber liquor. Currently, scrubber liquor from the fuel vapor scrubber is considered non-hazardous. The scrubber liquor is defined as spent citric acid scrubber solution; the solution contains complexed hydrazine I methylhydrazine and is used to neutralize nonspecification hypergolic fuel generated by CCAFS and KSC. This project is a collaborative effort between Air Force Space Command (AFSPC), Space and Missile Center (SMC), the CCAFS, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to evaluate microwave destruction technology for the treatment of non-specification hypergolic fuel generated at CCAFS and KSC. The project will capitalize on knowledge gained from microwave treatment work being accomplished by AFSPC and SMC at V AFB. This report focuses on the costs associated with the current non-specification hypergolic fuel neutralization process (Section 2.0) as well as the estimated costs of operating a mobile microwave unit to treat non-specification hypergolic fuel (Section 3.0), and compares the costs for each (Section 4.0).The purpose of this document is to assess the costs associated with waste hypergolic fuel. This document will report the costs associated with the current fuel neutralization process and also examine the costs of an alternative technology, microwave destruction of waste hypergolic fuel. The microwave destruction system is being designed as a mobile unit to treat non-specification hypergolic fuel at CCAFS and KSC.
The role of an alerting system is to make the system operator (e.g., pilot) aware of an impending hazard or unsafe state so the hazard can be avoided or managed successfully. A review of 46 commercial aviation accidents (between 1998 and 2014) revealed that, in the vast majority of events, either the hazard was not alerted or relevant hazard alerting occurred but failed to aid the flight crew sufficiently. For this set of events, alerting system failures were placed in one of five phases: Detection, Understanding, Action Selection, Prioritization, and Execution. This study also reviewed the evolution of alerting system schemes in commercial aviation, which revealed naive assumptions about pilot reliability in monitoring flight path parameters; specifically, pilot monitoring was assumed to be more effective than it actually is. Examples are provided of the types of alerting system failures that have occurred, and recommendations are provided for alerting system improvements.
There is a divide in energy access studies, between technologically-focused modeling papers in engineering and economics, and energy justice frameworks and principles grounded in social sciences. Quantitative computational models are necessary when analyzing energy, and more specifically electricity, systems, as they are technologically-complex systems that can diverge from intuitive patterns. To assure energy justice, these models must be reflective of, and informative to, a wide range of stakeholders, including households and communities alongside utilities, governments, and others. Yet, moving from a qualitative understanding of preferences to quantitative modeling is challenging. In this perspective piece, we pilot the use of the value-focused thinking framework to inform stakeholder engagement. The result is a strategic objective hierarchy that highlights the tradeoffs and the social, economic and technological factors that need to be measured in models. We apply the process in Ghana, using a survey, stakeholder workshops, and follow-up interviews to uncover key tradeoffs and stakeholder-derived objectives. We discuss three key areas that have been rarely, if ever, well-represented in energy models: (1) the relationship between the dynamics of electricity end-use and the technology and economic structure of the system; (2) explicit tradeoffs between electricity access, cost, and reliability as defined by stakeholders; and (3) the definition of new objectives, such as minimizing hazards related to theft. We conclude that this model of engagement provides an opportunity to tie together rigorous qualitative analysis and stakeholder engagement with crucial quantitative models of the electricity system.
Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Because the SVI is calculated based on the summed rank of multiple vulnerability factors for environmental hazards, it can include factors irrelevant to power outages caused by extreme events. This work performs a detailed correlation analysis for social vulnerability and power outages by considering different SVI themes (e.g., socioeconomic status, household composition, racial and ethnic minority status, and housing and transportation) and power outages with and without a threshold for extreme weather events. Although there is some relation between specific themes and aspects of power outages and the SVI in the results, there is no strong distinction between power outage durations and low vs. high SVI values. These results point to the need for further research that grounds the specific factors and methods used to develop SVI and related indices to energy services and power systems disruptions.
Process acceptable knowledge (AK) is a waste stream characterization method that can be used to meet all or part of the waste analysis requirements appropriate for the waste. The method may include documented knowledge of process (KOP), additional characterization data, and/or facility records of analysis. LANL will use process AK to ensure chemical compatibility; assign matrix parameter categories and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) hazardous waste numbers (HWNs) commonly referred to as EPA codes to waste streams; and determine the waste material parameters and radionuclides present in waste streams.