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At least 757 records · Page 42

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

Here, we present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge only the model horizontal velocities towards operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6-hour relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an offline land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a “Core” integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modelled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opposed Jet Burner Extinction Limits: Simple Mixed Hydrocarbon Scramjet Fuels vs Air

Opposed Jet Burner tools have been used extensively by the authors to measure Flame Strength (FS) of laminar non-premixed H2 air and simple hydrocarbon (HC) air counterflow diffusion flames at 1-atm. FS represents a strain-induced extinction limit based on air jet velocity. This paper follows AIAA-2006-5223, and provides new HC air FSs for global testing of chemical kinetics, and for characterizing idealized flameholding potentials during early scramjet-like combustion. Previous FS data included six HCs, pure and N2-diluted; and three HC-diluted H2 fuels, where FS decayed very nonlinearly as HC was added to H2, due to H-atom scavenging. This study presents FSs on mixtures of (candidate surrogate) HCs, some with very high FS ethylene. Included are four binary gaseous systems at 300 K, and a hot ternary system at approx. 600 K. The binaries are methane + ethylene, ethane + ethylene, methane + ethane, and methane + propylene. The first three also form two ternary systems. The hot ternary includes both 10.8 and 21.3 mole % vaporized n-heptane and full ranges of methane + ethylene. Normalized FS data provide accurate means of (1) validating, globally, chemical kinetics for extinction of non-premixed flames, and (2) estimating (scaling by HC) the loss of incipient flameholding in scramjet combustors. The n-heptane is part of a proposed baseline simulant (10 mole % with 30% methane + 60% ethylene) that mimics the ignition of endothermically cracked JP-7 like kerosene fuel, as suggested by Colket and Spadaccini in 2001 in their shock tube Scramjet Fuels Autoignition Study. Presently, we use FS to gauge idealized flameholding, and define HC surrogates. First, FS was characterized for hot nheptane + methane + ethylene; then a hot 36 mole % methane + 64% ethylene surrogate was defined that mimics FS of the baseline simulant system. A similar hot ethane + ethylene surrogate can also be defined, but it has lower vapor pressure at 300 K, and thus exhibits reduced gaseous capacity. The new FS results refine our earlier idealized reactivity scale that shows wide ranging (50 x) diameter-normalized FSs for various HCs. These range from JP-10 and methane to H2 air, which produces an exceptionally strong flame that agrees within approx. 1% of recent 2-D numerically simulations. Finally, we continue advocating the FS approach as more direct and fundamental, for assessing idealized scramjet flameholding potentials, than measurements of unstrained laminar burning velocity or blowout in a Perfectly Stirred Reactor.

Pellett, Gerald L.↗

Conformation-independent structural comparison of macromolecules with ProSMART

The Procrustes Structural Matching Alignment and Restraints Tool (ProSMART) has been developed to allow local comparative structural analyses independent of the global conformations and sequence homology of the compared macromolecules. This allows quick and intuitive visualization of the conservation of backbone and side-chain conformations, providing complementary information to existing methods. The identification and exploration of (dis)similarities between macromolecular structures can help to gain biological insight, for instance when visualizing or quantifying the response of a protein to ligand binding. Obtaining a residue alignment between compared structures is often a prerequisite for such comparative analysis. If the conformational change of the protein is dramatic, conventional alignment methods may struggle to provide an intuitive solution for straightforward analysis. To make such analyses more accessible, the Procrustes Structural Matching Alignment and Restraints Tool (ProSMART) has been developed, which achieves a conformation-independent structural alignment, as well as providing such additional functionalities as the generation of restraints for use in the refinement of macromolecular models. Sensible comparison of protein (or DNA/RNA) structures in the presence of conformational changes is achieved by enforcing neither chain nor domain rigidity. The visualization of results is facilitated by popular molecular-graphics software such as CCP4mg and PyMOL, providing intuitive feedback regarding structural conservation and subtle dissimilarities between close homologues that can otherwise be hard to identify. Automatically generated colour schemes corresponding to various residue-based scores are provided, which allow the assessment of the conservation of backbone and side-chain conformations relative to the local coordinate frame. Structural comparison tools such as ProSMART can help to break the complexity that accompanies the constantly growing pool of structural data into a more readily accessible form, potentially offering biological insight or influencing subsequent experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Scalable Algorithm for Radiative Heat Transfer Using Reverse Monte Carlo Ray Tracing

Radiative heat transfer is an important mechanism in a class of challenging engineering and research problems. A direct all-to-all treatment of these problems is prohibitively expensive on large core counts due to pervasive all- to-all MPI communication. The massive heat transfer problem arising from the next generation of clean coal boilers being modeled by the Uintah framework has radiation as a dominant heat transfer mode. Reverse Monte Carlo ray tracing (RMCRT) can be used to solve for the radiative-flux divergence while accounting for the effects of participating media. The ray tracing approach used here replicates the geometry of the boiler on a multi-core node and then uses an all-to-all communication phase to distribute the results globally. The cost of this all-to-all is reduced by using an adaptive mesh approach in which a fine mesh is only used locally, and a coarse mesh is used elsewhere. Here, a model for communication and computation complexity is used to predict performance of this new method. We show this model is consistent with observed results and demonstrate excellent strong scaling to 262K cores on the DOE Titan system on problem sizes that were previously computationally intractable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MULTI-PARAMETRIC STUDY OF RISING 3D BUOYANT FLUX TUBES IN AN ADIABATIC STRATIFICATION USING AMR

We study the buoyant rise of magnetic flux tubes embedded in an adiabatic stratification using two-and three-dimensional, magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We analyze the dependence of the tube evolution on the field line twist and on the curvature of the tube axis in different diffusion regimes. To be able to achieve a comparatively high spatial resolution we use the FLASH code, which has a built-in Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) capability. Our 3D experiments reach Reynolds numbers that permit a reasonable comparison of the results with those of previous 2D simulations. When the experiments are run without AMR, hence with a comparatively large diffusivity, the amount of longitudinal magnetic flux retained inside the tube increases with the curvature of the tube axis. However, when a low-diffusion regime is reached by using the AMR algorithms, the magnetic twist is able to prevent the splitting of the magnetic loop into vortex tubes and the loop curvature does not play any significant role. We detect the generation of vorticity in the main body of the tube of opposite sign on the opposite sides of the apex. This is a consequence of the inhomogeneity of the azimuthal component of the field on the flux surfaces. The lift force associated with this global vorticity makes the flanks of the tube move away from their initial vertical plane in an antisymmetric fashion. The trajectories have an oscillatory motion superimposed, due to the shedding of vortex rolls to the wake, which creates a Von Karman street.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Aerosol Constraints from Multi-Angle Imaging That Modelers Can Use

As we continue to develop, refine, and apply the MISR aerosol products to a range of scientific questions, the strengths and limitations of the data content regarding aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol type, and plume height mapping have become pretty clear. Optimizing the operational algorithms to take advantage of the multi-angle, multi-spectral radiance information content is challenging in some situations, so we have also developed a number of specialized tools that run only on individual cases. These include the MISR Research Aerosol Retrieval algorithm, the highest-quality aerosol plume heights derived from the MINX software, and MISR-MODIS aerosol transport mapping code. This presentation will focus on some of the research products we are creating, with emphasis on those that might be most useful for constraining aerosol transport models, As we have acquired more than 11 years of once-weekly global coverage from MISR, discussion with the group will consider where and when having these products would maximize our contribution to AeroCom modeling efforts, in the context of practical limitations on specialized product generation.

Kahn, Ralph↗

A Variational Method to Retrieve the Extinction Profile in Liquid Clouds Using Multiple Field-of-View Lidar

While liquid clouds playa very important role in the global radiation budget, it's been very difficult to remotely determine their internal cloud structure. Ordinary lidar instruments (similar to radars but using visible light pulses) receive strong signals from such clouds, but the information is limited to a thin layer near the cloud boundary. Multiple field-of-view (FOV) lidars offer some new hope as they are able to isolate photons that were scattered many times by cloud droplets and penetrated deep into a cloud before returning to the instrument. Their data contains new information on cloud structure, although the lack of fast simulation methods made it challenging to interpret the observations. This paper describes a fast new technique that can simulate multiple-FOV lidar signals and can even estimate the way the signals would change in response to changes in cloud properties-an ability that allows quick refinements in our initial guesses of cloud structure. Results for a hypothetical airborne three-FOV lidar suggest that this approach can help determine cloud structure for a deeper layer in clouds, and can reliably determine the optical thickness of even fairly thick liquid clouds. The algorithm is also applied to stratocumulus observations by the 8-FOV airborne "THOR" lidar. These tests demonstrate that the new method can determine the depth to which a lidar provides useful information on vertical cloud structure. This work opens the way to exploit data from spaceborne lidar and radar more rigorously than has been possible up to now.

Pounder, Nicola L.↗

Crystal Structure Prediction of Binary Alloys via Deep Potential

Predicting crystal structure has been a challenging problem in physics and materials science for a long time. A reliable energy calculation engine combined with an efficient global search algorithm, such as particle swarm optimization algorithm or genetic algorithm, is needed to conduct crystal structure prediction. In recent years, machine learning-based interatomic potential energy surface models have been proposed, potentially allowing us to perform crystal structure prediction for systems with the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) and the speed of empirical force fields. In this paper, we employ a previously developed Deep Potential model to predict the intermetallic compound of the aluminum–magnesium system, and find six meta-stable phases with negative or nearly zero formation energy. In particular, Mg 12 Al 8 shows excellent ductility and Mg 5 Al 27 has a high Young's modulus. Based on our benchmark results, we propose a relatively robust structure screening criterion that selects potentially stable structures from the Deep Potential-based convex hull and performs DFT refinement. By using this criterion, the computational cost needed to construct the convex hull with ab initio accuracy can be dramatically reduced.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Aeroheating Thermal Model Correlation for Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Solar Array

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Spacecraft made use of aerobraking to gradually reduce its orbit period from a highly elliptical insertion orbit to its final science orbit. Aerobraking produces a high heat load on the solar arrays, which have a large surface area exposed to the airflow and relatively low mass. To accurately model the complex behavior during aerobraking, the thermal analysis needed to be tightly coupled to the spatially varying, time dependent aerodynamic heating. Also, the thermal model itself needed to accurately capture the behavior of the solar array and its response to changing heat load conditions. The correlation of the thermal model to flight data allowed a validation of the modeling process, as well as information on what processes dominate the thermal behavior. Correlation in this case primarily involved detailing the thermal sensor nodes, using as-built mass to modify material property estimates, refining solar cell assembly properties, and adding detail to radiation and heat flux boundary conditions. This paper describes the methods used to develop finite element thermal models of the MGS solar array and the correlation of the thermal model to flight data from the spacecraft drag passes. Correlation was made to data from four flight thermal sensors over three of the early drag passes. Good correlation of the model was achieved, with a maximum difference between the predicted model maximum and the observed flight maximum temperature of less than 5%. Lessons learned in the correlation of this model assisted in validating a similar model and method used for the Mars Odyssey solar array aeroheating analysis, which were used during onorbit operations.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

Let's Exploit Available Knowledge on Vegetation Fluorescence

The potential to measure vegetation fluorescence from space (1) and to derive from it direct information on the gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is probably the most thrilling development in remote sensing and global ecology of recent years, as it moves Earth observation techniques from the detection of canopy biophysics (e.g., fraction of absorbed radiation) and biochemistry (chlorophyll and nitrogen content) to the realm of ecosystem function. The existence of a functional relationship between fluorescence and photosynthesis has been elucidated over the last decade by several laboratories, notably as part of the preliminary studies of the European Space Agency Fluorescence Explorer (FLEX) Earth Explorer Mission. The empirical observation presented by Guanter et al. (2) of a linear relationship between fluorescence radiance and GPP, however, provides the first experimental confirmation of the feasibility of the approach— already thoroughly tested at leaf level—at the desired scale, despite the confounding effects associated with the satellite detection of such a faint signal. A word of clarification is needed here. The use of fluorescence as a probe of leaf photochemistry has been a staple of plant ecophysiology for decades, rooted in a sound understanding of photosynthetic energy dissipation. However, most past studies had to rely for the interpretation of results on active (pulse-saturated) techniques, making them unsuitable for remote-sensing applications. Over recent years, however, novel process based models have been developed for the interpretation of steady-state, solar-induced fluorescence at the leaf to canopy scale (3). We are therefore in a position to move beyond the mere empirical observation of an association between GPP and fluorescence radiance. In particular, Guanter et al. (2) base their analysis on the assumption of a constant ratio between photosynthetic and fluorescence light use efficiencies (equation 3 in ref. 2).We know, however, that the ratio is not constant, but changes widely in response to light, CO2, stomatal limitations, and extreme stress (4, 5). What’s more, we can make sense of such changes, thus extracting valuable information from the very scatter that is apparent in their data. However, this process will require the availability of more tailored instruments, such as the one planned for the FLEX mission. As already stressed by Guanter et al. (2), the spatial resolution of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 sensor (40 × 80 km) makes it difficult to compare meaningfully the fluorescence signal with ground measurements, when only 60–70% of the footprint consists of the desired land-cover type (table S1 in ref. 2), suggesting that this could be largely responsible for the low signals observed in European grasslands. Moreover, the overpass time of the MetOp-A satellite (9:30 AM) implies that fluorescence is generally measured under light-limiting conditions, when fluorescence is only marginally affected by stomatal closure even under stress conditions. This result could explain the seasonal mismatch with daily GPP observed in natural ecosystems in the absence of irrigation (figure 4 in ref. 2). We hope, therefore, that this welcome contribution to this fast-advancing field will help demonstrate the potential of the new technique, and pave the way for more refined studies under both a technological and scientific point of view.

Space↗

Global QCD analysis of spin PDFs in the proton with high-𝑥 and lattice constraints

We perform a comprehensive global QCD analysis of spin-dependent parton distribution functions (PDFs), combining all available data on inclusive and semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering (DIS), as well as inclusive weak boson and jet production in polarized 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions, simultaneously extracting spin-averaged PDFs and fragmentation functions. Including recent Jefferson Lab DIS data at high 𝑥, together with subleading power corrections to the leading-twist framework, allows us to verify the stability of the PDFs for 𝑊 2 ≥ 4 GeV 2 and quantify the uncertainties on the spin structure functions more reliably. We explore the use of new lattice QCD data on gluonic pseudo-Ioffe time distributions, which, together with jet production and high-𝑥 DIS data, improve the constraints on the polarized gluon PDF. The expanded kinematic reach afforded by the data into the high-𝑥 region allows us to refine the bounds on higher-twist contributions to the spin structure functions, and test the validity of the Bjorken sum rule.

Perturbative QCD↗

A High-Pressure Shock Tube Study of Hydrogen and Ammonia Addition to Natural Gas for Reduced Carbon Emissions in Power Generation Gas Turbines

Ignition delay times from undiluted mixtures of natural gas (NG)/H2/Air and NG/NH3/Air were measured using a high-pressure shock tube at the University of Central Florida. The combustion temperatures were experimentally tested between 1000-1500 K near a constant pressure of 25 bar. Mixtures were kept undiluted to replicate the same chemistry pathways seen in gas turbine combustion chambers. Recorded combustion pressures exceeded 200 bar due to the large energy release, hence why these were performed at the high-pressure shock tube facility. The data is compared to the predictions of the NUIGMech 1.1 mechanism for chemical kinetic model validation and refinement. An exceptional agreement was shown for stoichiometric conditions in all cases but strayed at lean and rich equivalence ratios, especially in the lower temperature regime of H2 addition and all temperature ranges of the baseline NG mixture. Hydrogen addition also decreased ignition delay times by nearly 90%, while NH3 fuel addition made no noticeable difference in ignition delay time. NG/NH3 exhibited similar chemistry to pure NG under the same conditions, which is shown in a sensitivity analysis, demonstrating hydrogen chemistry to be dominant in NG/H2 mixtures and hydrocarbon chemistry to be dominant in NG/NH3 mixtures. The reaction CH3 + O2 = CH3O + O is identified and suggested as a possible modification target to improve model performance. Increasing the robustness of chemical kinetic models via experimental validation will directly aid in designing next-generation combustion chambers for use in gas turbines, which in turn will greatly lower global emissions and reduce greenhouse effects.

Pierro, Michael↗

Non-stoichiometry Governs the Pathway from Amorphous to Crystalline Calcium Carbonate

The controlled crystallization of calcium carbonate underlies the elaborate architectures of marine corals, the design of biomimetic materials, and the global carbon cycle. Despite its ubiquity, the chemical mechanisms that govern the crystallization of calcium carbonate from its amorphous precursor, amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC), remain elusive, largely due to the difficulty in resolving the structure and chemistry of this transient amorphous state. Here, we use time-lapse photography, image analysis, spatially resolved pH determination, in situ synchrotron pair distribution function (PDF) analysis, and dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP) solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to reveal pervasive compositional variability in ACC that underpins its metastability and crystallization. By evaluating the kinetics of the amorphous-to-crystalline transition across different solution chemistries, we demonstrate that ACC is non-stoichiometric and CO 3 -deficient. Counterions from the precursor (e.g., NO 3 - from Ca(NO 3 ) 2 ) substitute into the ACC network, displacing CO 3 ions and mediating both ACC stability and transformation. Crystallization proceeds through refinement of the stoichiometry toward CaCO 3 and uptake of free CO 3 2- anions. Furthermore, these findings are consistent across a wide range of concentrations and different carbonate sources, explaining the diverse behaviors observed for ACC and providing a chemical framework for controlling calcium carbonate crystallization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

WellPINN: Accurate Well Representation for Transient Fluid Pressure Diffusion in Subsurface Reservoirs With Physics‐Informed Neural Networks

Accurate representation of pumping wells is essential for reliable reservoir characterization and simulation of operational scenarios in subsurface flow models. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as a promising alternative to numerical models for reservoir modeling, offering seamless integration of monitoring data and governing physical equations. However, existing PINN-based studies face major challenges in capturing fluid pressure near wells when using a source/sink term, particularly during the early stages after pumping begins. We address this problem by introducing WellPINN, a workflow in which an initially trained PINN infers fluid pressure across the entire reservoir domain using a large equivalent well radius. This initial PINN solution is then locally refined around the well by a set of subdomain PINNs that are trained for smaller equivalent well radii. Continuity across these subdomain interfaces as well as at the initial condition is ensured by hard-constraining each PINN on its subdomain boundary. Our results demonstrate WellPINN as the first workflow of its kind to focus on accurate inference of fluid pressure from pumping rates throughout the entire injection period, significantly advancing the potential of PINNs for inverse modeling and operational scenario simulations. All data and code for this paper are openly available at https://doi.org/10.20350/DIGITALCSIC/17260.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GROWTH on S190426c: Real-time Search for a Counterpart to the Probable Neutron Star–Black Hole Merger using an Automated Difference Imaging Pipeline for DECam

The discovery of a transient kilonova following the gravitational-wave (GW) event GW170817 highlighted the critical need for coordinated rapid and wide-field observations, inference, and follow-up across the electromagnetic spectrum. In the southern hemisphere, the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) on the Blanco 4 m telescope is well suited to this task, as it is able to cover wide fields quickly while still achieving the depths required to find kilonovae like the one accompanying GW170817 to ~500 Mpc, the binary neutron star (NS) horizon distance for current generation of LIGO/Virgo collaboration (LVC) interferometers. Here, as part of the multi-facility follow-up by the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen collaboration, we describe the observations and automated data movement, data reduction, candidate discovery, and vetting pipeline of our target-of-opportunity DECam observations of S190426c, the first possible NS-black hole merger detected in GWs. Starting 7.5 hr after S190426c, over 11.28 hr of observations, we imaged an area of 525 deg 2 ( r band) and 437 deg 2 ( z band); this was 16.3% of the total original localization probability, and nearly all of the probability visible from the southern hemisphere. The machine-learning-based pipeline was optimized for fast turnaround, delivering transients for human vetting within 17 minutes, on average, of shutter closure. We reported nine promising counterpart candidates 2.5 hr before the end of our observations. One hour after our data-taking ended (roughly 20 hr after the announcement of S190426c), LVC released a refined skymap that reduced the probability coverage of our observations to 8.0%, demonstrating a critical need for localization updates on shorter (~hour) timescales. Our observations yielded no detection of a bona fide counterpart to m z = 21.7 and m r = 22.2 at the 5σ level of significance, consistent with the refined LVC positioning. Here, we view these observations and rapid inferencing as an important real-world test for this novel end-to-end wide-field pipeline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determination of Thunderstorm Anvil Ice Contents and Other Cloud Properties from Satellite Observations of Lightning

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. The charging mechanism incorporated into the model is the non-inductive ice-ice mechanism - involving rebounding collisions between ice crystals and growing graupel pellets - which has achieved significant field, laboratory and modelling support in recent years. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it is possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. One can also estimate the ice crystal loading associated with more localized storm systems. Early results from this work will be presented, together with further work on the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Blyth, Alan M.↗

Exposing Process‐Level Biases in a Global Cloud Permitting Model With ARM Observations

The emergence of global convective‐permitting models (GCPMs) represents a significant advancement in climate modeling, offering improved representation of deep convection and complex precipitation patterns. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) using its doubly periodic configuration (DP‐SCREAM) against large eddy simulations and modern observational data sets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. We introduce several new transitional cloud regime cases, such as the transition from shallow to deep convection and from stratocumulus to cumulus, as well as cold‐air outbreak scenarios. The results reveal both strengths and limitations of SCREAM, particularly in the accurate simulation of cloud transitions and midlevel convection, with varying degrees of sensitivity to horizontal and vertical resolution. Despite improvements at higher resolutions, key biases remain, including the abrupt transition from shallow to deep convection and the lack of congestus clouds. These findings underscore the need for further refinement in turbulence parameterizations and vertical grid resolution in GCPMs.

Bogenschutz, Peter A. [Lawrence Livermore National↗