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At least 757 records · Page 42

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Development of a Model Correlating Axial HEPA Filter Performance Between Elevated and Standard Conditions

The ASME AG-1 Code specifies minimum rated airflow based on standard cubic feet per minute (SCFM) for axial high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters and actual cubic feet per minute (ACFM) for radial HEPA filters with corresponding maximum pressure drop. A quantitative analysis can be performed to demonstrate the variation in filter efficiency and develop a correlation of performance between axial filters subjected to ACFM and SCFM. This study illustrates the variation in filter efficiency of axial HEPA filters subjected to ACFM and SCFM flow rate conditions at varying atmospheric pressures. It also presents the methods used to calculate correction factors to convert filter efficiency and pressure drop from elevated to standard conditions. The Axial Large Scale Test Stand (ALSTS) in the Institute for Clean Energy Technology (ICET) at Mississippi State University has been utilized to control aerosol concentration, flowrate, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and temperature. The filter test matrix consists of axial HEPA filters rated at 1,000 and 1,500 CFM with varying filter pack types. Each filter is subjected to varying pressures of 14.70 psi, 13.55 psi, 12.40 psi, and 11.25 psi, temperatures of 70 deg. F, 110 deg. F, and 150 deg. F, and relative humidities of 50% and 80%, resulting in twenty-four unique testing points. The corresponding SCFM flow rates are computed for each point in order to form a comparison. Evaluation of the effects of designating ACFM or SCFM will be based upon the filter efficiencies of generated Dioctyl Phthalate (DOP) particles at a diameter of 0.3 micrometers. The results show filter efficiency decreasing as atmospheric pressure decreases due to increased filter face velocity. A correlation model is developed to convert filter efficiency and pressure drop at elevated conditions to those of standard pressure, relative humidity, and temperature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electron scattering on A = 3 nuclei from quantum Monte Carlo based approaches

We perform first-principle calculations of electron-nucleus scattering on 3 He and 3 H using the Green's function Monte Carlo method and two approaches based on the factorization of the final hadronic state: the spectral-function formalism and the short-time approximation. These three methods are benchmarked among each other and compared to the experimental data for the longitudinal and transverse electromagnetic response functions of 3 He, and the inclusive cross sections of both 3 He and 3 H. Since these three approaches are based on the same description of nuclear dynamics of the initial target state, comparing their results enables a precise quantification of the uncertainties inherent to factorization schemes. At sufficiently large values of the momentum transfer, we find an excellent agreement of the Green's function Monte Carlo calculation with experimental data and with both the spectral-function formalism and the short-time approximation. Here, we also analyze the relevance of relativistic effects, whose inclusion becomes crucial to explain data at high momentum and energy transfer.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Electron scattering on ${\mathbf{A=3}}$ nuclei from quantum Monte Carlo based approaches

We perform first-principle calculations of electron-nucleus scattering on $^3$He and $^3$H using the Green's function Monte Carlo method and two approaches based on the factorization of the final hadronic state: the spectral-function formalism and the short-time approximation. These three methods are benchmarked among each other and compared to the experimental data for the longitudinal and transverse electromagnetic response functions of $^3$He, and the inclusive cross sections of both $^3$He and $^3$H. Since these three approaches are based on the same description of nuclear dynamics of the initial target state, comparing their results enables a precise quantification of the uncertainties inherent to factorization schemes. At sufficiently large values of the momentum transfer, we find an excellent agreement of the Green's function Monte Carlo calculation with experimental data and with both the spectral-function formalism and the short-time approximation. We also analyze the relevance of relativistic effects, whose inclusion becomes crucial to explain data at high momentum and energy transfer.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A computational method for subsonic compressible flow in diffusers

Integral methods are used to model subsonic flow in planar diffusers operating with or without stall. Turbulent boundary layers are computed with a lag-entrainment method employing new correlations for shape factor and skin friction, which are based on a Coles-Van Driest velocity profile. The inviscid flow is modeled as one dimensional and is easily coupled with the boundary layer method to yield equations that can be solved by integrating in the downstream direction. Analysis of the equations describing flow in a diffuser shows that the boundary layer separation singularity may not be eliminated by viscous-inviscid interaction; a modified interaction scheme is used to guarantee a non-singular equation set. The nature of this singularity offers an explanation for the apparent universality of asymmetric stall in planar diffusers. Results for several flows demonstrate the accuracy and range of applicability of the method.

Childs, R. E.↗

Use of an ultrasonic-acoustic technique for nondestructive evaluation of fiber composite strength

This report describes the ultrasonic-acoustic technique used to measure a 'Stress Wave Factor'. In a prior study this factor was found effective in evaluating the interlaminar shear strength of fiber-reinforced composites. Details of the method used to measure the stress wave factor are described. In addition, frequency spectra of the stress waves are analyzed in order to clarify the nature of the wave phenomena involved. The stress wave factor can be measured with simple contact probes requiring only one-side access to a part. This is beneficial in nondestructive evaluations because the waves can run parallel to fiber directions and thus measure material properties in directions assumed by actual loads. Moreover, the technique can be applied where conventional through transmission techniques are impractical or where more quantitative data are required. The stress wave factor was measured for a series of graphite/polyimide composite panels and results obtained are compared with through transmission immersion ultrasonic scans.

Vary, A.↗

Correlated Uncertainties in Radiation Shielding Effectiveness

The space radiation environment is composed of energetic particles which can deliver harmful doses of radiation that may lead to acute radiation sickness, cancer, and even death for insufficiently shielded crew members. Spacecraft shielding must provide structural integrity and minimize the risk associated with radiation exposure. The risk of radiation exposure induced death (REID) is a measure of the risk of dying from cancer induced by radiation exposure. Uncertainties in the risk projection model, quality factor, and spectral fluence are folded into the calculation of the REID by sampling from probability distribution functions. Consequently, determining optimal shielding materials that reduce the REID in a statistically significant manner has been found to be difficult. In this work, the difference of the REID distributions for different materials is used to study the effect of composition on shielding effectiveness. It is shown that the use of correlated uncertainties allows for the determination of statistically significant differences between materials despite the large uncertainties in the quality factor. This is in contrast to previous methods where uncertainties have been generally treated as uncorrelated. It is concluded that the use of correlated quality factor uncertainties greatly reduces the uncertainty in the assessment of shielding effectiveness for the mitigation of radiation exposure.

Werneth, Charles M.↗

Combining Sparse Approximate Factorizations with Mixed-precision Iterative Refinement

The standard LU factorization-based solution process for linear systems can be enhanced in speed or accuracy by employing mixed-precision iterative refinement. Most recent work has focused on dense systems. We investigate the potential of mixed-precision iterative refinement to enhance methods for sparse systems based on approximate sparse factorizations. In doing so, we first develop a new error analysis for LU- and GMRES-based iterative refinement under a general model of LU factorization that accounts for the approximation methods typically used by modern sparse solvers, such as low-rank approximations or relaxed pivoting strategies. We then provide a detailed performance analysis of both the execution time and memory consumption of different algorithms, based on a selected set of iterative refinement variants and approximate sparse factorizations. Our performance study uses the multifrontal solver MUMPS, which can exploit block low-rank factorization and static pivoting. We evaluate the performance of the algorithms on large, sparse problems coming from a variety of real-life and industrial applications showing that mixed-precision iterative refinement combined with approximate sparse factorization can lead to considerable reductions of both the time and memory consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

A discrete integral transform for rapid spectral synthesis

Accurate synthetic spectra that rely on large Line-By-Line (LBL)-databases are used in a wide range of applications such as high temperature combustion, atmospheric re-entry, planetary surveillance and laboratory plasmas. Conventionally synthetic spectra are calculated by computing a lineshape for every spectral line in the database and adding those together, which may take multiple hours for large databases. In this paper we propose a new approach for spectral synthesis based on an integral transform: the synthetic spectrum is calculated as the integral over the product of a Voigt profile and a newly proposed three-dimensional “lineshape distribution function”, which is a function of spectral position and Gaussian- & Lorentzian width coordinates. A fast discrete version of this transform based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is proposed, which improves performance compared to the conventional approach by several orders of magnitude while maintaining accuracy. Strategies that minimize the discretization error are discussed. A Python implementation of the method is compared against state-of-the-art spectral code RADIS, and is since adopted as RADIS's default synthesis method. The synthesis of a benchmark CO2 spectrum consisting of 1.8 M spectral lines and 200k spectral points took only 3.1 s using the proposed method (1011 lines × spectral points/s), a factor ~300 improvement over the state-of-the-art, with the relative improvement generally increasing for higher number of lines and/or number of spectral points. Finally, an experimental GPU-implementation of the method was also benchmarked, which demonstrated another 2~3 orders performance increase, achieving up to 5 ∙ 10 14 lines × spectral points/s.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stress intensity factors for deep cracks emanating from the corner formed by a hole intersecting a plate surface

A technique consisting of freezing photo-elasticity and a numerical method was used to obtain stress intensity factors for natural cracks emanating from the corner at which a hole intersects a plate surface. Geometries studied were: (1) crack depth to thickness ratios of approximately 0.2, (2) 0.5 and 0.75; (3) crack depth to crack length ratios of approximately 1.0 to 2.0; and (4) crack length to hole radius ratios of about 0.5 to 2.0. All final crack geometries were grown under monotonic loading and growth was not self similar, with most of the growth occuring through the thickness under remote extension. Stress intensity factors were determined at the intersection of the flaw border.

Mcgowan, J. J.↗

Large Scale Study of Ligand–Protein Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations: Actionable Predictions from Statistically Robust Protocols

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Capturing Surface Coverage Effects in Heterogeneous Catalysis

Adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions at relevant surface coverages have a significant effect on chemical kinetics, thereby influencing the activity of a heterogeneous catalyst. Coverage-dependent kinetic and thermodynamic parameters therefore must be included in studies of such complex systems to properly predict the turnover frequencies and kinetic trends. Thus, it becomes extremely important to accurately capture the strength of lateral interactions between neighboring species under realistic reaction conditions. In this Perspective, we discuss the various existing computational and experimental methods for determining adspecies coverage and configurational effects. The choice of the tools and methods employed in such studies depends on factors such as time, length scales, computational cost, the presence of solvents, and reaction conditions. The applications of each method and the respective challenges are also discussed here. As a result, we discuss the recent developments and future of the state-of-the-art for inclusion of surface coverage and configuration into a holistic picture for accurate predictions of catalytic behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Analysis of surface cracks at hole by a 3-D weight function method with stresses from finite element method

Parallel with the work in Part-1, stress intensity factors for semi-elliptical surface cracks emanating from a circular hole are determined. The 3-D weight function method with the 3D finite element solutions for the uncracked stress distribution as in Part-1 is used for the analysis. Two different loading conditions, i.e. remote tension and wedge loading, are considered for a wide range in geometrical parameters. Both single and double surface cracks are studied and compared with other solutions available in the literature. Typical crack opening displacements are also provided.

Zhao, W.↗

Global properties of pseudospectral methods

The present application of polynomial interpolation methods to function-approximation and numerical solutions for hyperbolic and elliptic PDEs allows the explicit construction of the derivative matrix for a general sequence of collocation points. An evaluation of the effect of several factors on the performance of these methods indicates an inability to interpret global methods in terms of local ones; the accuracy of the approximation will differ when the function's large gradients occur near the center of the region or near the boundary, irrespective of the boundary vicinity's collocation-point density.

Solomonoff, A.↗

The cost of conservative synchronization in parallel discrete event simulations

The performance of a synchronous conservative parallel discrete-event simulation protocol is analyzed. The class of simulation models considered is oriented around a physical domain and possesses a limited ability to predict future behavior. A stochastic model is used to show that as the volume of simulation activity in the model increases relative to a fixed architecture, the complexity of the average per-event overhead due to synchronization, event list manipulation, lookahead calculations, and processor idle time approach the complexity of the average per-event overhead of a serial simulation. The method is therefore within a constant factor of optimal. The analysis demonstrates that on large problems--those for which parallel processing is ideally suited--there is often enough parallel workload so that processors are not usually idle. The viability of the method is also demonstrated empirically, showing how good performance is achieved on large problems using a thirty-two node Intel iPSC/2 distributed memory multiprocessor.

Nicol, David M.↗

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A global urban heat island intensity dataset: Generation, comparison, and analysis

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, a phenomenon of local warming over urban areas, is the most well-known impact of urbanization on climate. Globally consistent estimates of the UHI intensity (UHII) are crucial for examining this phenomenon across time and space. However, publicly available UHII datasets are limited and have several constraints: (1) they are for clear-sky surface UHII, not all-sky surface UHII and canopy (air temperature) UHII; (2) the estimation methods often neglect anthropogenic disturbance, introducing uncertainties in the estimated UHII. To address these issues, this study proposes a new dynamic equal-area (DEA) method that can minimize the influence of various confounding factors on UHII estimates through a dynamic cyclic process. Utilizing the DEA method and leveraging various gridded temperature data, we develop a global-scale (>10,000 cities), long-term (over 20 years by month), and multi-faceted (clear-sky surface, all-sky surface, and canopy) UHII dataset. Further, based on these estimates, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the UHII and its trends in global cities. The UHII is found to be greater than zero in >80% of cities, with global annual average magnitudes around 1.0 °C (day) and 0.8 °C (night) for surface UHII, and close to 0.5 °C for canopy UHII. Furthermore, an interannual upward trend in UHII is observed in >60% of cities, with global annual average trends exceeding 0.1 °C/decade (day) and over 0.06 °C/decade (night) for surface UHII, and slightly surpassing 0.03 °C/decade for canopy UHII. Notably, there exists a positive correlation between the magnitude and trend of UHII, suggesting that cities with stronger UHII tend to experience faster growth in UHII. Additionally, discrepancies in UHII are found between different temperature data, stemming not only from distinctions in data types (surface or air temperature) but also from differences in data acquisition times (Terra or Aqua), weather conditions (clear-sky or all-sky), and processing methodologies (with or without gap filling). Overall, our proposed method, dataset, and analysis results have the potential to provide valuable insights for future urban climate studies. The UHII dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24821538.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗