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At least 757 records · Page 42

Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India

Forty-six years (1939-1984) of observed data were examined to study synoptic and statistical relationships between the summer monsoon rainfall over India, the Southern Oscillation, and the midtropospheric circulation over India. The change in Darwin pressure from January to April and the latitudinal position of the April 500-mb ridge along 75 deg E are taken as two quasi-independent predictor parameters to develop a regression equation to predict the summer monsoon rainfall. Verification of predictions on independent data shows that the root-mean-square error for predicted rainfall is 36 mm, which is less than half of the standard deviation and only about 4 percent of the mean rainfall (857 mm).

Shukla, J.↗

Explorations of electric current system in solar active regions. I - Empirical inferences of the current flows

Techniques to identify sources of electric current systems and their channels of flow in solar active regions are explored. Measured photospheric vector magnetic fields together with high-resolution white-light and H-alpha filtergrams provide the data base to derive the current systems in the photosphere and chromosphere. As an example, the techniques are then applied to infer current systems in AR 2372 in early April 1980.

Ding, Y. J.↗

The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.

Vaughan, David S.↗

Application of empirical and linear methods to VSTOL powered-lift aerodynamics

Available prediction methods applied to problems of aero/propulsion interactions for short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft are critically reviewed and an assessment of their strengths and weaknesses provided. The first two problems deal with aerodynamic performance effects during hover: (1) out-of-ground effect, and (2) in-ground effect. The first can be evaluated for some multijet cases; however, the second problem is very difficult to evaluate for multijets. The ground-environment effects due to wall jets and fountain flows directly affect hover performance. In a related problem: (3) hot-gas ingestion affects the engine operation. Both of these problems as well as jet noise affect the ability of people to work near the aircraft and the ability of the aircraft to operate near the ground. Additional problems are: (4) the power-augmented lift due to jet-flap effects (both in- and out-of-ground effects), and (5) the direct jet-lift effects during short takeoff and landing (STOL) operations. The final problem: (6) is the aerodynamic/propulsion interactions in transition between hover and wing-borne flight. Areas where modern CFD methods can provide improvements to current computational capabilities are identified.

Margason, Richard↗

Construction of mass-age curves for the continental crust: An empirical model and an example from the western US

The methodology of determining crustal mass-age curves is discussed. Problems in doing this include determination of model ages and accounting for mixing of materials of different ages during crust forming processes. These difficulties can be overcome with some reasonable assumptions and estimates of rock volumes based on areal proportions. This technique was used to construct a reasonably well constrained mass-age curve for the southwestern U.S. based on isotopic measurements on over 100 samples. The results imply that the crust in this area grew episodically at 2.8, 1.8, and 0.1 Ga. It is estimated that it would take on the order of 10000 to 100000 individual Sm-Nd isotopic measurements to carry out a similar exercise for continental crust world wide.

Depaolo, D. J.↗

Monitoring global vegetation using Nimbus-7 37 GHz data - Some empirical relations

The difference of the vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures observed by the 37 GHz channel of the SMMR on board the Nimbus-7 satellite are correlated temporally with three indicators of vegetation density, namely the temporal variation of the atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa (Hawaii), rainfall over the Sahel and the normalized difference vegetation index derived from the AVHRR on board the NOAA-7 satellite. SMMR 37 GHz and AVHRR provide complementary data sets for monitoring global vegetation, the 37 GHz data being more suitable for arid and semiarid regions as these data are more sensitive to changes in sparse vegetation. The 37-GHz data might be useful for understanding desertification and indexing Co2 exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Evaluation of a three-dimensional empirically derived wing at supersonic speeds

A novel wing design concept is introduced which takes advantage of the existence of conical flow at supersonic speeds. The present wing design concept is to create a near conical wing geometry by redistributing airfoils in a spanwise direction. In addition, a set of graphs which review the supersonic aerodynamics of delta wings have been employed to select a design wing sweep and Mach number. An iteration through the wing design logic resulted in the selection of a 65 deg swept delta wing and a design Mach number of 1.62. Theoretical analysis was performed with a nonlinear full-potential analysis method to assess the merits of the wing design approach. The analysis showed large reductions in drag due to lift compared to delta wings configured with traditional thickness and airfoil distributions.

Wood, Richard M.↗

Application of empirical and linear methods to VSTOL powered-lift aerodynamics

Available prediction methods applied to problems of aero/propulsion interactions for short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft are critically reviewed and an assessment of their strengths and weaknesses provided. The first two problems deal with aerodynamic performance effects during hover: (1) out-of-ground effect, and (2) in-ground effect. The first can be evaluated for some multijet cases; however, the second problem is very difficult to evaluate for multijets. The ground-environment effects due to wall jets and fountain flows directly affect hover performance. In a related problem: (3) hot-gas ingestion affects the engine operation. Both of these problems as well as jet noise affect the ability of people to work near the aircraft and the ability of the aircraft to operate near the ground. Additional problems are: (4) the power-augmented lift due to jet-flap effects (both in- and out-of-ground effects), and (5) the direct jet-lift effects during short takeoff and landing (STOL) operations. The final problem: (6) is the aerodynamic/propulsion interactions in transition between hover and wing-borne flight. Areas where modern CFD methods can provide improvements to current computational capabilities are identified.

Margason, Richard↗

Semi-empirical crack tip analysis

Experimentally observed crack opening displacements are employed as the solution of the multiple crack interaction problem. Then the near and far fields are reconstructed analytically by means of the double layer potential technqiue. Evaluation of the effective stress intensity factor resulting from the interaction of the main crack and its surrounding crazes in addition to the remotely applied load is presented as an illustrative example. It is shown that crazing (as well as microcracking) may constitute an alternative mechanism to Dugdale-Berenblatt models responsible for the cancellation of the singularity at the crack tip.

Chudnovsky, A.↗

Assessment Of Semi-Empirical Dynamic Stall Models For Turboprop Stall Calculations

Report presents comparison of stall-flutter responses obtained from three semiempirical dynamic stall models. Part of effort to develop models for stall-flutter analysis of highly loaded propellers (advanced turboprops). Available models of dynamic stall applied to simple structural models to study extent of validity and select appropriate model for application to advanced turboprops. Conclusion during study is operating environment of advanced turboprop favors conditions of light stall, in which loads induced by vortexes not severe.

Kaza, K. R. V.↗

An empirical study of the performance of APMOVPE AM0 InP homojunction solar cells as a function of emitter thickness and doping, and base doping

Their excellent radiation resistance and conversion efficiencies greater than 20 percent, measured under global conditions, make InP shallow-homojunction solar cells very attractive for space or terrestrial application. In addition, modeling studies show that, for optimized design, efficiencies of these devices should exceed 20 percent even under AM0 conditions. However, a systematic experimental investigation of the influence of the various cell design parameters on cell performance has not as yet been made. For the n+/p/p+ structures investigated in the previous modeling study, the design parameters include the impurity concentrations and thicknesses of the emitter and base layers. In the work reported here, researchers discuss an experimental investigation of the effects on cell performance of varying the impurity concentrations of the emitter and base and thickness of the emitter.

Wanlass, M. W.↗

A semi-empirical approach for the chemoviscosity modeling of reactive resin system

A new analytical model for simulating chemoviscosity of a thermosetting resin is presented. The model is developed on the basis of the Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF, 1955) polymer rheology theory for the thermoplastic materials, which was modified to account for the factor of reaction time by introducing a relationship between the glass transition temperature and the degree of cure of the resin system. Theoretical predictions of the chemoviscosity profiles under dynamic curing conditions are shown to compare favorably with the experimental data obtained on the Hercules 3501-6 resin system cured under seven isothermal conditions.

Hou, T. H.↗

An empirically derived figure of merit for the quality of overall task performance

The need to develop an operationally relevant figure of merit for the quality of performance of a complex system such as an aircraft cockpit stems from a hypothesized dissociation between measures of performance and those of workload. Performance can be measured in terms of time, errors, or a combination of these. In most tasks performed by expert operators, errors are relatively rare and often corrected in time to avoid consequences. Moreover, perfect performance is seldom necessary to accomplish a particular task. Moreover, how well an expert performs a complex task consisting of a series of discrete cognitive tasks superimposed on a continuous task, such as flying an aircraft, does not depend on how well each discrete task is performed, but on their smooth sequencing. This makes the amount of time spent on each subtask of paramount importance in measuring overall performance, since smooth sequencing requires a minimum amount of time spent on each task. Quality consists in getting tasks done within a crucial time interval while maintaining acceptable continuous task performance. Thus, a figure of merit for overall quality of performance should be primarily a measure of time to perform discrete subtasks combined with a measure of basic vehicle control. Thus, the proposed figure of merit requires doing a task analysis on a series of performance, or runs, of a particular task, listing each discrete task and its associated time, and calculating the mean and standard deviation of these times, along with the mean and standard deviation of tracking error for the whole task. A set of simulator data on 30 runs of a landing task was obtained and a figure of merit will be calculated for each run. The figure of merit will be compared for voice and data link, so that the impact of this technology on total crew performance (not just communication performance) can be assessed. The effect of data link communication on other cockpit tasks will also be considered.

Lemay, Moira↗

An empirical investigation of the InP shallow-homojunction solar cell

An experimental study of the performance of epitaxially grown InP shallow-homojunction solar cells as a function of the thickness and carrier concentration in the base and emitter layers is presented. Identification of improvements to cell design leading to higher performance is emphasized. As a result, using a near-optimum set of design parameters, cells with conversion efficiencies of 20.3 percent (global) and 17.6 percent (AM0) have been achieved. For such cells, it is shown that the internal response of the base layer is essentially perfect, whereas the emitter-layer properties can be improved substantially and warrant further investigation. Discrepancies between the results of the present study and those of earlier modeling efforts are discussed.

Wanlass, M. W.↗

The benefits and costs of automation in advanced helicopters - An empirical study

A helicopter simulation was conducted to examine the interaction between voice-activated controls and altitude-hold automation. A single-pilot scout/attack helicopter with conventional controls was simulated with full out-the-window computer-generated imagery. Helicopter pilots performed simulated missions which included hover, cruise and ground attack phases. For half of the flights, voice-activated controls were used instead of manual controls, for two flight tasks (weapon selection and data-burst transmission). Hover performance during data-burst hover improved when voice-activation was used. However, subjective ratings indicated higher workload levels with voice-activation. An altitude-hold automation manipulation was crossed with the voice-activation/manual manipulation. Altitude-hold automation provided two significant benefits: (1) pilots were able to hover with less lateral movement; and (2) pilots reported less workload. However, there was a performance cost associated with the automation. Pilots were significantly slower in responding to unexpected events during hover.

Bortolussi, Michael R.↗

The estimation of convective rainfall by area integrals. I - The theoretical and empirical basis. II - The height-area rainfall threshold (HART) method

A theory is developed which establishes the basis for the use of rainfall areas within present thresholds as a measure of either the instantaneous areawide rain rate of convective storms or the total volume of rain from an individual storm over its lifetime. The method is based upon the existence of a well-behaved pdf of rain rate either from the many storms at one instant or from a single storm during its life. The generality of the instantaneous areawide method was examined by applying it to quantitative radar data sets from the GARP Tropical Atlantic Experiment for South Africa, Texas, and Darwin (Australia). It is shown that the pdf's developed for each of these areas are consistent with the theory.

Rosenfeld, Daniel↗

Empirical studies of the microwave radiometric response to rainfall in the tropics and midlatitudes

Results are presented from quantitative comparisons between satellite microwave radiometer observations and digital radar observations of equatorial convective cloud clusters and midlatitude frontal precipitation. Simultaneous data from the Winter Monsoon Experiment digital radar and the SMMR for December 1978 are analyzed. It is found that the most important differences between the microwave response to rainfall in the equatorial tropics and to stratiform rain in oceanic midlatitude fronts is caused by the different spatial characteristics of stratiform and convective rainfall and by the different background brightness temperature fields associated with tropical and midlatitude levels of atmospheric water vapor.

Petty, Grant W.↗