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Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.
GASP: Gradient-Aware Shortest Path Algorithm for Boundary-Confined 2-Manifold Reeb Graph Visualization
Reeb graphs are an important tool for abstracting and representing the topological structure of a function defined on a manifold. We have identified three properties for faithfully representing Reeb graphs in a visualization: they should be constrained to the boundary, compact, and aligned with the function gradient. Existing algorithms for drawing Reeb graphs are agnostic to or violate these properties. In this paper, we introduce an algorithm to generate Reeb graph visualizations, called GASP, that is cognizant of these properties, thereby producing visualizations that are more representative of the underlying data. To demonstrate the improvements, the resulting Reeb graphs are evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively against the geometric barycenter algorithm, using its implementation available in the Topology ToolKit (TTK), a widely adopted tool for calculating and visualizing Reeb graphs.
Effect of Approach Speed and Electrode Geometry on Electrostatic Discharges Off Floating Dielectrics
With the damaging effects of electrostatic discharges (ESDs), it is important to study them within various parameter regimes relevant to real-world scenarios. One such scenario studied here is a floating dielectric with no nearby ground plane with a grounded object approaching at a high rate of speed. One may encounter this scenario when moving objects by hand. Discharge current and radiated fields are captured for discharges drawn from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) and poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA) with approach speeds ranging from 20 to 100 mm/s. Previous studies have shown that at lower speeds in metal-to-metal or metal-to-ground backed dielectric geometries, the peak current and discharge distance decrease with increasing speed. However, in the speed range studied here, an increase in distance and current are observed for increasing speed. Namely, the highest speeds coincide with the highest peak currents and discharge distances of approximately 800 mA and up to 24 mm. Further, with no grounded backing, as opposed to setups in other ESD studies, the electric field between the dielectric and an approaching electrode has a more uniform distribution with highest fields at the electrode, which is elucidated to be the driving factor in the differences revealed in this study. Two spheres of differing diameters and a conical electrode are used to draw discharges off the dielectric surfaces. Captured radiated fields via B-dot sensor, plasma imagery via intesified charge-coupled device (ICCD), and mapping of surface potential reveal that a majority of the energy lost during a discharge goes to gas losses and radiated fields.
NSTXU Diagnostic Disruption Dynamic Loading Represented by Response Spectra
This article presents the results of transient dynamic simulations of loads due to disruption eddy currents on the NSTXU vacuum vessel. Dynamic loading at diagnostic mounting locations is expressed as response spectra derived from the time history results of the dynamic structural simulations of a variety of disruption scenarios. The disruption simulations draw on a history of the project assessments of worst case disruptions for specific components. Major efforts to assess disruption loading have included the vacuum vessel which is the major structural support for the machine, as well as the passive plates (PPs), high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) antenna, and centerstack casing. Each one of these efforts included transient electromagnetic simulations producing time-dependent eddy current Lorentz loads (and in some cases halo loads) which then were applied to time-dependent structural dynamic analyses intended to obtain the proper dynamic amplification factors. In some instances, the EM model and structural model were identical allowing direct transfer of EM forces to the structural model. In other cases, the EM and structural model were not identical and the vector potential (VP) transfer method was used. The results files from these analyses were available (or re-run) to post process in ANSYS Classic time history postprocessor. In conclusion, the ANSYS command is used to create response spectra from time history data at desired points on the vessel.
Topology-Agnostic, Scalable, Self-Healing, and Cost-Aware Protection of Microgrids
Most microgrid protection schemes found in published literature suffer from a lack of generality in that they work well for the assumed topology, including type and placement of sources. Other generic protection schemes tend to be too complicated, too expensive, or both. To overcome these draw- backs, a topology-agnostic, scalable, and cost-aware protection based on fundamental principles that work in the presence of high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is developed and tested in this paper. Here, the protection system also implements stable automatic reconfiguration of the healthy sections of the system after clearance of fault, thus increasing resilience by self- healing. To achieve this ambitious goal, stable inverter models are developed that operate in unbalanced networks in grid-connected and islanded modes, even with 100% IBRs, share power without conflicting controls, and can ride through faults while limiting fault currents. The scheme is tested for primary and backup protection and reconfiguration on the IEEE 123-node feeder in grid-connected and islanded modes with 15 IBRs connected to the system.
Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations
People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6
Global distribution, formation and fate of mineral‐associated soil organic matter under a changing climate: A trait‐based perspective
Abstract Soil organic matter (SOM) is the largest actively cycling reservoir of terrestrial carbon (C), and the majority of SOM in Earth's mineral soils (~65%) is mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM). Thus, the formation and fate of MAOM can exert substantial influence on the global C cycle. To predict future changes to Earth's climate, it is critical to mechanistically understand the processes by which MAOM is formed and decomposed, and to accurately represent this process‐based understanding in biogeochemical and Earth system models. In this review, we use a trait‐based framework to synthesize the interacting roles of plants, soil micro‐organisms, and the mineral matrix in regulating MAOM formation and decomposition. Our proposed framework differentiates between plant and microbial traits that influence total OM inputs to the soil (‘feedstock traits’) versus traits that influence the proportion of OM inputs that are ultimately incorporated into MAOM (‘MAOM formation traits’). We discuss how these feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be altered by warming, altered precipitation and elevated carbon dioxide. At a planetary scale, these feedstock and MAOM formation traits help shape the distribution of MAOM across Earth's biomes, and modulate biome‐specific responses of MAOM to climate change. We leverage a global synthesis of MAOM measurements to provide estimates of the total amount of MAOM‐C globally (~840–1540 Pg C; 34%–51% of total terrestrial organic C), and its distribution across Earth's biomes. We show that MAOM‐C concentration is highest in temperate forests and grasslands, and lowest in shrublands and savannas. Grasslands and croplands have the highest proportion of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the MAOM fraction (i.e. the MAOM‐C:SOC ratio), while boreal forests and tundra have the lowest MAOM‐C:SOC ratio. Drawing on our trait framework, we then review experimental data and posit the effects of climate change on MAOM pools in different biomes. We conclude by discussing how MAOM is integrated into soil C models, and how feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be included in these models. We also summarize the projected fate of MAOM under climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and discuss key model uncertainties. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
Generating Euler Diagrams Through Combinatorial Optimization
Abstract Can a given set system be drawn as an Euler diagram? We present the first method that correctly decides this question for arbitrary set systems if the Euler diagram is required to represent each set with a single connected region. If the answer is yes, our method constructs an Euler diagram. If the answer is no, our method yields an Euler diagram for a simplified version of the set system, where a minimum number of set elements have been removed. Further, we integrate known wellformedness criteria for Euler diagrams as additional optimization objectives into our method. Our focus lies on the computation of a planar graph that is embedded in the plane to serve as the dual graph of the Euler diagram. Since even a basic version of this problem is known to be NP‐hard, we choose an approach based on integer linear programming (ILP), which allows us to compute optimal solutions with existing mathematical solvers. For this, we draw upon previous research on computing planar supports of hypergraphs and adapt existing ILP building blocks for contiguity‐constrained spatial unit allocation and the maximum planar subgraph problem. To generate Euler diagrams for large set systems, for which the proposed simplification through element removal becomes indispensable, we also present an efficient heuristic. We report on experiments with data from MovieDB and Twitter. Over all examples, including 850 non‐trivial instances, our exact optimization method failed only for one set system to find a solution without removing a set element. However, with the removal of only a few set elements, the Euler diagrams can be substantially improved with respect to our wellformedness criteria.
Observing fish interactions with marine energy turbines using acoustic cameras
Abstract Marine current energy converters such as tidal and riverine turbines have the potential to provide reliable, clean power. The risk of collision of fishes with marine energy turbines is not yet well understood, in part due to the challenges associated with observing fish at turbine sites. Turbidity and light availability can limit the effectiveness of optical sensors like video cameras, motivating the use of acoustic cameras for this task. However, challenges persist in collecting and interpreting data acquired from acoustic cameras. Given the limited number of turbine deployments to date, it is prudent to draw on the application of acoustic cameras to monitor fish in other scenarios. This article synthesizes their use for other fisheries applications to inform best practices and set realistic expectations for the results of acoustic camera monitoring at turbine sites. We discuss six key tasks performed with acoustic cameras: detecting objects, identifying objects as fish, counting fish, measuring fish, classifying fish taxonomically and analysing fish behavior. Specific challenges to monitoring fish at turbine sites are discussed. This article is intended to serve as a reference for researchers, regulators and marine energy developers on effective use of acoustic cameras to monitor fish at turbine sites. The studies detailed in this article provide evidence that, in some scenarios, acoustic cameras can be used to inform the risk of fish collision with marine energy turbines but doing so requires careful study design and data processing.
Soils' dirty little secret: Depth–based comparisons can be inadequate for quantifying changes in soil organic carbon and other mineral soil properties
Quantifying changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and other soil properties is essential for understanding how soils will respond to land management practices and global change. Although they are widely used, comparisons of SOC stocks at fixed depth (FD) intervals are subject to errors when changes in bulk density or soil organic matter occur. The equivalent soil mass (ESM) method has been recommended in lieu of FD for assessing changes in SOC stocks in mineral soils, but ESM remains underutilized for SOC stocks and has rarely been used for other soil properties. In this paper, we draw attention to the limitations of the FD method and demonstrate the advantages of the ESM approach. We provide illustrations to show that the FD approach is susceptible to errors not only for quantifying SOC stocks but also for soil mass-based properties such as SOC mass percent, C:N mass ratio, and δ 13 C. Here we describe the ESM approach and show how it mitigates the FD method limitations. Using bulk density change simulations applied to an empirical dataset from bioenergy cropping systems, we show that the ESM method provides consistently lower errors than FD when quantifying changes in SOC stocks and other soil properties. To simplify the use of ESM, we detail how the method can be integrated into sampling schemes, and we provide an example R computer script that can perform ESM calculations on large datasets. We encourage future studies, whether temporal or comparative, to utilize sampling methods that are amenable to the ESM approach. Overall, we agree with previous recommendations that ESM should be the standard method for evaluating SOC stock changes in mineral soils, but we further suggest that ESM may also be preferred for comparisons of other soil properties including mass percentages, elemental mass ratios, and stable isotope composition.
Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make “Functional Types” more functional
Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. Here we review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.
Soil phosphorus drawdown by perennial bioenergy cropping systems in the Midwestern US
Abstract Without fertilization, harvest of perennial bioenergy cropping systems diminishes soil nutrient stocks, yet the time course of nutrient drawdown has not often been investigated. We analyzed phosphorus (P) inputs (fertilization and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (harvest and leaching losses) over 7 years in three representative biomass crops—switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) and hybrid poplar trees ( Populus nigra × P. maximowiczii )—as well as in no‐till corn (maize; Zea mays L.) for comparison, all planted on former cropland in SW Michigan, USA. Only corn received P fertilizer. Corn (grain and stover), switchgrass, and miscanthus were harvested annually, while poplar was harvested after 6 years. Soil test P (STP; Bray‐1 method) was measured in the upper 25 cm of soil annually. Harvest P removal was calculated from tissue P concentration and harvest yield (or annual woody biomass accrual in poplar). Leaching was estimated as total dissolved P concentration in soil solutions sampled beneath the rooting depth (1.25 m), combined with hydrological modeling. Fertilization and harvest were by far the dominant P budget terms for corn, and harvest P removal dominated the P budgets in switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar, while atmospheric deposition and leaching losses were comparatively insignificant. Because of significant P removal by harvest, the P balances of switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar were negative and corresponded with decreasing STP, whereas P fertilization compensated for the harvest P removal in corn, resulting in a positive P balance. Results indicate that perennial crop harvest without P fertilization removed legacy P from soils, and continued harvest will soon draw P down to limiting levels, even in soils once heavily P‐fertilized. Widespread cultivation of bioenergy crops may, therefore, alter P balances in agricultural landscapes, eventually requiring P fertilization, which could be supplied by P recovery from harvested biomass.
Occasions for laughter and dementia risk: Findings from a six‐year cohort study
Aim Currently, there is little evidence on the relationship between laughter and the risk of dementia, and since laughter is mainly a social behavior, we aimed to examine the association between various occasions for laughter and the risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. Methods We draw upon 6‐year follow‐up data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, including 12 165 independent older adults aged 65 years or over. Occasions for laughter were assessed using a questionnaire, while dementia was diagnosed using the standardized dementia scale of the long‐term care insurance system in Japan. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated, yielding hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The multivariable hazard ratio of dementia incidence for all participants in the groups for high versus low variety of occasions for laughter was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72–0.98, P for trend <0.001). A greater variety of occasions for laughter was associated with a lower risk of dementia 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63–0.96, P for trend <0.001) among women, but was less pronounced for men, with significant associations only for the medium group. Laughing during conversations with friends, communicating with children or grandchildren, and listening to the radio were primarily associated with decreased risk. Conclusion A greater variety of laughter occasions in individual and social settings was associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 392–398 .
Sampling in Long-Screened Wells: Issues, Misconceptions, and Solutions
The issues associated with long-screened wells (LSWs) (and open boreholes) at contaminated sites are well documented in the groundwater literature but are still not fully appreciated in practice. As established in seminal and review papers going back over three decades, the interpretation of sampling results from LSWs is challenging in the presence of vertical hydraulic gradients and borehole flow; furthermore, LSWs allow for vertical redistribution of contamination between aquifer layers. Acknowledgment of these issues has led to the development of new technologies and well designs to enable discrete-zone monitoring (DZM), yet LSWs remain common for many reasons, for example, as multipurpose wells, for geophysical logging, and (or) as legacy installations. Despite the literature on LSWs and despite the adoption of DZM at many sites, the use of LSWs persists and the challenges of interpreting sampling results from LSWs remain. In this issue paper, we provide a conceptual overview of the problems posed by LSWs and review existing literature and past work to improve the interpretation of sampling in LSWs. We draw on experience from previous studies at the Hanford Site in eastern WA, USA, and use synthetic examples to illustrate key concepts and challenges for interpretation. A recently published analytical modeling framework is used to develop illustrative synthetic examples and demonstrate a workflow for building scientific intuition to understand issues around interpreting samples from LSWs, which is critical to effective characterization and groundwater remediation at sites with LSWs.
Thermal properties of HfN-MoW surrogate cermet fuel for nuclear thermal propulsion
Here, the thermal properties of MoW-HfN, a surrogate cermet for MoW-UN nuclear thermal propulsion fuel, were characterized over a wide range of elevated temperatures. Thermal diffusivity, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE), and heat capacity were measured. Optical and scanning electron microscopy were performed to characterize the microstructure and draw structure–property correlations. The thermal diffusivity was obtained using the laser flash method. Diffusivity values ranged from about 0.18 cm 2 /s at 200°C to 0.15 cm 2 /s at 1800°C. The CTE was measured using push-rod dilatometry up to 1600°C, giving values between 6.0 and 9.0 μm/m. A scientific rationalization of the effective material properties is made using the rule-of-mixtures and other effective properties models.
Vacant niches help predict invasion risk by birds
Abstract Aim If communities have a ceiling determining the number of species that can coexist, then the ability of alien species to establish at any given location should be related to the quantity of vacant niches available. We developed a new approach to estimate the extent to which niches are vacant and then explored the relationship between vacant niches and alien species. Location Global with focal tests in Europe and North America. Taxon Birds. Methods Drawing on a global classification of trophic structures for birds, we calculated a ‘vacant niche ratio’ metric to quantify the expected level of saturation (i.e. number of vacant niches) for each 1° × 1° grid cell globally, based on the difference between expected and observed numbers of bird species for all trophic guilds. Next, we used random forests to examine if the presence of plant‐invertivore (whose food source represents plants, seeds, fruits and invertebrates) and granivore alien bird species was associated with the vacant niche ratio across well‐sampled regions. Results In Europe, we found a significant relationship between alien species and vacant niches, with greater numbers of alien species being found in communities that offered greater numbers of vacant niches overall, and across habitat types. In North America, we found no significant relationship between plant‐invertivores and vacant niches, while for granivores, we found that areas with fewer vacant niches had greater numbers of alien species, especially in forests. However, vacant niches alone correctly predict 69% of the presence of alien bird species when combining both regions and trophic guilds. Main Conclusions Most regions of the world have unsaturated bird communities, with the level of saturation in communities varying within regions and trophic guilds. We found that although often‐neglected, vacant niches are likely to be, at least partially, related with the successful establishment of alien bird species.
Root traits as drivers of plant and ecosystem functioning: current understanding, pitfalls and future research needs
The effects of plants on the biosphere, atmosphere and geosphere are key determinants of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, despite substantial progress made regarding plant belowground components, we are still only beginning to explore the complex relationships between root traits and functions. Drawing on the literature in plant physiology, ecophysiology, ecology, agronomy and soil science, we reviewed 24 aspects of plant and ecosystem functioning and their relationships with a number of root system traits, including aspects of architecture, physiology, morphology, anatomy, chemistry, biomechanics and biotic interactions. Based on this assessment, we critically evaluated the current strengths and gaps in our knowledge, and identify future research challenges in the field of root ecology. Most importantly, we found that belowground traits with the broadest importance in plant and ecosystem functioning are not those most commonly measured. Also, the estimation of trait relative importance for functioning requires us to consider a more comprehensive range of functionally relevant traits from a diverse range of species, across environments and over time series. Finally, we also advocate that establishing causal hierarchical links among root traits will provide a hypothesis-based framework to identify the most parsimonious sets of traits with the strongest links on functions, and to link genotypes to plant and ecosystem functioning.