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Visualization Component of Vehicle Health Decision Support System

The visualization front-end of a Decision Support System (DSS) also includes an analysis engine linked to vehicle telemetry, and a database of learned models for known behaviors. Because the display is graphical rather than text-based, the summarization it provides has a greater information density on one screen for evaluation by a flight controller.This tool provides a system-level visualization of the state of a vehicle, and drill-down capability for more details and interfaces to separate analysis algorithms and sensor data streams. The system-level view is a 3D rendering of the vehicle, with sensors represented as icons, tied to appropriate positions within the vehicle body and colored to indicate sensor state (e.g., normal, warning, anomalous state, etc.). The sensor data is received via an Information Sharing Protocol (ISP) client that connects to an external server for real-time telemetry. Users can interactively pan, zoom, and rotate this 3D view, as well as select sensors for a detail plot of the associated time series data. Subsets of the plotted data can be selected and sent to an external analysis engine to either search for a similar time series in an historical database, or to detect anomalous events. The system overview and plotting capabilities are completely general in that they can be applied to any vehicle instrumented with a collection of sensors. This visualization component can interface with the ISP for data streams used by NASA s Mission Control Center at Johnson Space Center. In addition, it can connect to, and display results from, separate analysis engine components that identify anomalies or that search for past instances of similar behavior. This software supports NASA's Software, Intelligent Systems, and Modeling element in the Exploration Systems Research and Technology Program by augmenting the capability of human flight controllers to make correct decisions, thus increasing safety and reliability. It was designed specifically as a tool for NASA's flight controllers to monitor the International Space Station and a future Crew Exploration Vehicle.

Jacob, Joseph↗

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C:~ prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Thompson, David E.↗

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

The current research is focused on detection of human error and protection from its consequences. A program for monitoring pilot error by comparing pilot actions to a script was described. It dealt primarily with routine errors (slips) that occurred during checklist activity. The model to which operator actions were compared was a script. Current research is an extension along these two dimensions. The ORS fault detection aid uses a sophisticated device model rather than a script. The newer initiative, the model-based and constraint-based warning system, uses an even more sophisticated device model and is to prevent all types of error, not just slips or bad decision.

Hammer, John M.↗

Integrated National and Regional Agricultural Planning with AgMIP Tools and Methods

AgMIP, through its unique integration of multi-modeling approaches with stakeholder engagement, has advanced co-development of decision support tools and adaptation strategies in the face of climate change and other shocks (especially COVID-19). This has helped generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes in developing countries. Local-to-national stakeholders and decision-makers appreciate the research-informed stakeholder dialogue as very helpful in identifying research and policy gaps. These motivate concise recommendations for productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies, and inclusive development approaches. Furthermore, these stakeholder dialogues help bridge the gaps between policy, research, and adaptation strategies, especially for low-input smallholder farming systems.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

Systems Health Management and Prognostics Approaches for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

An Open Computing Infrastructure that Facilitates Integrated Product and Process Development from a Decision-Based Perspective

Computer applications for design have evolved rapidly over the past several decades, and significant payoffs are being achieved by organizations through reductions in design cycle times. These applications are overwhelmed by the requirements imposed during complex, open engineering systems design. Organizations are faced with a number of different methodologies, numerous legacy disciplinary tools, and a very large amount of data. Yet they are also faced with few interdisciplinary tools for design collaboration or methods for achieving the revolutionary product designs required to maintain a competitive advantage in the future. These organizations are looking for a software infrastructure that integrates current corporate design practices with newer simulation and solution techniques. Such an infrastructure must be robust to changes in both corporate needs and enabling technologies. In addition, this infrastructure must be user-friendly, modular and scalable. This need is the motivation for the research described in this dissertation. The research is focused on the development of an open computing infrastructure that facilitates product and process design. In addition, this research explicitly deals with human interactions during design through a model that focuses on the role of a designer as that of decision-maker. The research perspective here is taken from that of design as a discipline with a focus on Decision-Based Design, Theory of Languages, Information Science, and Integration Technology. Given this background, a Model of IPPD is developed and implemented along the lines of a traditional experimental procedure: with the steps of establishing context, formalizing a theory, building an apparatus, conducting an experiment, reviewing results, and providing recommendations. Based on this Model, Design Processes and Specification can be explored in a structured and implementable architecture. An architecture for exploring design called DREAMS (Developing Robust Engineering Analysis Models and Specifications) has been developed which supports the activities of both meta-design and actual design execution. This is accomplished through a systematic process which is comprised of the stages of Formulation, Translation, and Evaluation. During this process, elements from a Design Specification are integrated into Design Processes. In addition, a software infrastructure was developed and is called IMAGE (Intelligent Multidisciplinary Aircraft Generation Environment). This represents a virtual apparatus in the Design Experiment conducted in this research. IMAGE is an innovative architecture because it explicitly supports design-related activities. This is accomplished through a GUI driven and Agent-based implementation of DREAMS. A HSCT design has been adopted from the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and is implemented in IMAGE. This problem shows how Design Processes and Specification interact in a design system. In addition, the problem utilizes two different solution models concurrently: optimal and satisfying. The satisfying model allows for more design flexibility and allows a designer to maintain design freedom. As a result of following this experimental procedure, this infrastructure is an open system that it is robust to changes in both corporate needs and computer technologies. The development of this infrastructure leads to a number of significant intellectual contributions: 1) A new approach to implementing IPPD with the aid of a computer; 2) A formal Design Experiment; 3) A combined Process and Specification architecture that is language-based; 4) An infrastructure for exploring design; 5) An integration strategy for implementing computer resources; and 6) A seamless modeling language. The need for these contributions is emphasized by the demand by industry and government agencies for the development of these technologies.

Hale, Mark A.↗

Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously approved and published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

Effects of Aircraft Health on Airspace Safety

This manuscript investigates the effects of aircraft health on the surrounding airspace, and proposes a methodology to understand how different aircraft-level faults (system faults, communication faults, etc.) can adversely affect the safety of the airspace, and qualitatively assess the impact of such faults on airspace safety metrics (such as congestion, controller/pilot workload, etc.). The topic of systems health management deals with continuously monitoring the performance of an engineering system, identifying and detecting the presence of faults, predicting the growth/progression of faults, computing the remaining useful life, and aiding online decision-making for the robust, continued operation of such engineering systems. The topic of real-time airspace modeling and safety analysis deals with defining and computing safety metrics for airspace operations in order to support risk-informed decision-making activities for various airspace entities including pilots, air traffic controllers, airlines, etc. This report presents recent research efforts that focus on combining multiple aspects of the aforementioned topics, and investigates the impact of aircraft-level faults on the airspace safety

Aircraft Health↗

Masking by Gratings Predicted by an Image Sequence Discriminating Model: Testing Models for Perceptual Discrimination Using Repeatable Noise

Adding noise to stimuli to be discriminated allows estimation of observer classification functions based on the correlation between observer responses and relevant features of the noisy stimuli. Examples will be presented of stimulus features that are found in auditory tone detection and visual vernier acuity. using the standard signal detection model (Thurstone scaling), we derive formulas to estimate the proportion of the observers decision variable variance that is controlled by the added noise. one is based on the probability of agreement of the observer with him/herself on trials with the same noise sample. Another is based on the relative performance of the observer and the model. When these do not agree, the model can be rejected. A second derivation gives the probability of agreement of observer and model when the observer follows the model except for internal noise. Agreement significantly less than this amount allows rejection of the model.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗

Development and optimization of a nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator

A systematic method is proposed for the development, optimization, and comparison of controller-models for the human operator. This is suitable for any designed model, even multiparameter systems. A random search technique is chosen for the parameter optimization. As valuation criteria for the quality of the model development the criterion function - the comparison between the input and output functions of the human operator and those of the model - and the most important characteristic values and functions of the statistical signal theory are used. A nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator is being designed which considers the complex input information rate per time in a single display. The nonlinear features of the model are effected by a modified threshold element and a decision algorithm. Different display-configurations as well as various transfer functions of the controlled element are explained by different optimized parameter-combinations.

Johannsen, G.↗

Radar studies of arctic ice and development of a real-time Arctic ice type identification system

Studies were conducted to develop a real-time Arctic ice type identification system. Data obtained by NASA Mission 126, conducted at Pt. Barrow, Alaska (Site 93) in April 1970 was analyzed in detail to more clearly define the major mechanisms at work affecting the radar energy illuminating a terrain cell of sea ice. General techniques for reduction of the scatterometer data to a form suitable for application of ice type decision criteria were investigated, and the electronic circuit requirements for implementation of these techniques were determined. Also, consideration of circuit requirements are extended to include the electronics necessary for analog programming of ice type decision algorithms. After completing the basic circuit designs a laboratory model was constructed and a preliminary evaluation performed. Several system modifications for improved performance are suggested. (Modified author abstract)

Rouse, J. W., Jr.↗

PROCRU: A model for analyzing flight crew procedures in approach to landing

A model for the human performance of approach and landing tasks that would provide a means for systematic exploration of questions concerning the impact of procedural and equipment design and the allocation of resources in the cockpit on performance and safety in approach-to-landing is discussed. A system model is needed that accounts for the interactions of crew, procedures, vehicle, approach geometry, and environment. The issues of interest revolve principally around allocation of tasks in the cockpit and crew performance with respect to the cognitive aspects of the tasks. The model must, therefore, deal effectively with information processing and decision-making aspects of human performance.

Baron, S.↗

The SIMRAND methodology - Simulation of Research and Development Projects

In research and development projects, a commonly occurring management decision is concerned with the optimum allocation of resources to achieve the project goals. Because of resource constraints, management has to make a decision regarding the set of proposed systems or tasks which should be undertaken. SIMRAND (Simulation of Research and Development Projects) is a methodology which was developed for aiding management in this decision. Attention is given to a problem description, aspects of model formulation, the reduction phase of the model solution, the simulation phase, and the evaluation phase. The implementation of the considered approach is illustrated with the aid of an example which involves a simplified network of the type used to determine the price of silicon solar cells.

Miles, R. F., Jr.↗

From where they look to what they think: Determining controller cognitive strategies from oculometer scanning data

The behavior and cognition of air traffic controllers from oculometer scanning data already obtained for another purpose was studied. There was very little work done to develop models of air traffic controllers, much of what was done was done at Langley. One aim of developing such models is to use them as the basis of decision-support or expert-system tools to assist controllers in their tasks. Such tools are more likely to be effective if they incorporate the strategies that controllers actually use, rather than steering them in what might be felt to be unnatural directions.

Cushing, Steven↗

Adaptive process control using fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms

Researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines have developed adaptive process control systems in which genetic algorithms (GA's) are used to augment fuzzy logic controllers (FLC's). GA's are search algorithms that rapidly locate near-optimum solutions to a wide spectrum of problems by modeling the search procedures of natural genetics. FLC's are rule based systems that efficiently manipulate a problem environment by modeling the 'rule-of-thumb' strategy used in human decision making. Together, GA's and FLC's possess the capabilities necessary to produce powerful, efficient, and robust adaptive control systems. To perform efficiently, such control systems require a control element to manipulate the problem environment, and a learning element to adjust to the changes in the problem environment. Details of an overall adaptive control system are discussed. A specific laboratory acid-base pH system is used to demonstrate the ideas presented.

Karr, C. L.↗

Genetic algorithms in adaptive fuzzy control

Researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines have developed adaptive process control systems in which genetic algorithms (GA's) are used to augment fuzzy logic controllers (FLC's). GA's are search algorithms that rapidly locate near-optimum solutions to a wide spectrum of problems by modeling the search procedures of natural genetics. FLC's are rule based systems that efficiently manipulate a problem environment by modeling the 'rule-of-thumb' strategy used in human decision making. Together, GA's and FLC's possess the capabilities necessary to produce powerful, efficient, and robust adaptive control systems. To perform efficiently, such control systems require a control element to manipulate the problem environment, an analysis element to recognize changes in the problem environment, and a learning element to adjust fuzzy membership functions in response to the changes in the problem environment. Details of an overall adaptive control system are discussed. A specific computer-simulated chemical system is used to demonstrate the ideas presented.

Karr, C. Lucas↗

A method for the probabilistic design assessment of composite structures

A formal procedure for the probabilistic design assessment of a composite structure is described. The uncertainties in all aspects of a composite structure (constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structural geometry, service environments, etc.), which result in the uncertain behavior in the composite structural responses, are included in the assessment. The probabilistic assessment consists of design criteria, modeling of composite structures and uncertainties, simulation methods, and the decision making process. A sample case is presented to illustrate the formal procedure and to demonstrate that composite structural designs can be probabilistically assessed with accuracy and efficiency.

Shiao, Michael C.↗