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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Establishing a Baseline for Global Geothermal Drilling Rates

Geothermal is a promising source of renewable energy with almost zero emissions. However, there remains untapped geothermal potential around the world. This is largely because geothermal projects have high development costs and high resource-value uncertainty, and returns on initial investments can be slow to materialize. Increasing drilling efficiency of geothermal wells is one way to decrease development costs, as drilling accounts for up to 50% of the upfront costs of a geothermal power project. Currently, little quantitative information exists about how fast geothermal drilling occurs on a global scale. This paper was originally intended to be an extension of Frone and Boyd's 2018 report on geothermal drilling rates in California and Nevada. Our project includes global data and considers additional measures, such as flat time. Data for the project was limited to published papers and drilling reports that are publicly available online. The goal of our project was to establish a baseline geothermal drilling rate that is representative of current global geothermal drilling practices can be used to gauge the impact of future improvements in geothermal drilling technology. We recorded the number of days from beginning to end of a project, the number of days spent drilling, and the number of days considered to be flat time. We found the average global rate at which a drilling project is completed (including non-drilling activities) to be 160 ft/day, and the average drilling rate (including only time during which active drilling occurred) to be 360 ft/day. Our data shows no clear trend in rate change from 2000 to 2017 and significant variability in drilling rates between countries and within countries.

baseline↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of X-Ray Characterization Techniques in Energy Storage Research

Lithium-ion batteries have revolutionized the portable electronics and transportation sectors. Their performance is often critically dependent on the crystal structures of the anode and cathode electrode materials, which must enable the transport and reversible storage of lithium ions into and out of the lattice. Because lithium is a low-Z element, characterization of materials for lithium-ion batteries can be particularly challenging. Regardless, X-ray techniques enable analysis of material structures to better understand how battery materials perform and degrade, particularly when combined with other materials characterization and electrochemical characterization techniques. While X-ray techniques are most often used in battery research for phase identification of crystal structures, X-ray characterization techniques are also used for a wide variety of other purposes. I will discuss several examples from my research with various collaborators on several projects that highlight the impact that X-ray characterization techniques can have on battery research. The first example will focus on low-temperature microwave-assisted solvothermal synthesis of vanadium-doped LiFePO4 cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries. (1,2) Through a combination of electrochemical and materials characterization, we determined that low temperature synthesis resulted in metastable phases that enabled incorporation of higher dopant levels than resulting from high-temperature synthesis of thermodynamically stable phases. Rietveld refinement of X-ray diffraction data enabled understanding of how lattice parameters changed with doping levels and synthesis temperature. X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy enabled understanding of the vanadium and iron oxidation states to confirm how vacancies in the structure caused by doping were charge compensated. This was important to understand because the literature suggests doping can improve LiFePO4 electrical conductivity, which improves battery charge and discharge rates. The second example will focus on understanding residual strain in lithium metal anodes. Lithium-ion batteries typically use graphite anodes, but the charge-storage capacity can be theoretically improved ~10x by using lithium metal as the anode material instead. However, lithium anodes suffer from growth of high-aspect-ratio features, such as dendrites, that can pierce nanoporous polymer separators and lead to short circuits and fires. External pressure is commonly applied to cells to enable better morphological control. We hypothesized that applied pressure may promote strain and possibly work hardening during electrochemical cycling, which motivated us to look for evidence of residual strain in lithium metal cycled under applied pressure using X-ray diffraction and sin2(..psi..) analysis. We found that lithium electrodeposited under high pressure exhibited in-plane compressive strain and that that lithium electrodeposited under low pressure did not. (3) The residual strain that accompanies electrodeposition under high pressure may lead to work hardening, which may explain how a soft metal like lithium can puncture separators and why higher pressure does not always decrease short circuits. (4-6) References: 1) Harrison, K. L.; Manthiram, A. Microwave-Assisted Solvothermal Synthesis and Characterization of Metastable LiFe1- x (VO) x PO4 Cathodes. Inorganic chemistry 2011, 50(8), 3613-3620. 2) Harrison, K. L.; Bridges, C. A.; Paranthaman, M. P.; Segre, C. U.; Katsoudas, J.; Maroni, V. A.; Idrobo, J. C.; Goodenough, J. B.; Manthiram, A. Temperature Dependence of Aliovalent-Vanadium Doping in LiFePO4 Cathodes. Chemistry of Materials 2013, 25(5), 768-781. 3) Rodriguez, M. A.; Harrison, K. L.; Goriparti, S.; Griego, J. J.; Boyce, B. L.; Perdue, B. R. Use of a Be-Dome Holder for Texture and Strain Characterization of Li Metal Thin Films via Sin2 (..psi..) Methodology. Powder Diffraction 2020, 35(2), 89-97. 4) Jungjohann, K. L.; Gannon, R. N.; Goriparti, S.; Randolph, S. J.; Merrill, L. C.; Johnson, D. C.; Zavadil, K. R.; Harris, S. J.; Harrison, K. L. Cryogenic Laser Ablation Reveals Short-Circuit Mechanism in Lithium Metal Batteries. ACS Energy Letters 2021, 6(6), 2138-2144. 5) Harrison, K. L.; Merrill, L. C.; Long, D. M.; Randolph, S. J.; Goriparti, S.; Christian, J.; Warren, B.; Roberts, S. A.; Harris, S. J.; Perry, D. L. Cryogenic Electron Microscopy Reveals That Applied Pressure Promotes Short Circuits in Li Batteries. Iscience 2021, 24(12). 6) Harrison, K. L.; Goriparti, S.; Merrill, L. C.; Long, D. M.; Warren, B.; Roberts, S. A.; Perdue, B. R.; Casias, Z.; Cuillier, P.; Boyce, B. L. Effects of Applied Interfacial Pressure on Li-Metal Cycling Performance and Morphology in 4 M LiFSI in DME. ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces 2021, 13(27), 31668-31679.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic effects on flood hazards in a hyper-arid watershed: The 2015 Atacama floods

An unprecedented precipitation event in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile occurred in March 2015. Geomorphic alterations to the river channel and the coastal zone, coupled with the exceptional magnitude of the rainfall, caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. On the coast of the El Salado watershed, legacy mine tailings infilled the watershed-ocean connection, while the river channel was altered both by tailings and urbanization. The consequences of this event resulted from the coupling of anthropogenic geomorphic changes with an unusual climate event. Lack of field data, complex geomorphology and sediment loads influenced by human activity make analysing floods in these regions especially challenging. The objective of this work is to improve our understanding of the factors that control flood hazards by using numerical simulations to reconstruct the 2015 flood in El Salado. We carry out unsteady two-dimensional simulations fully coupled with the sediment concentration to identify the influence of tailing deposits, considering high-resolution data of the pre- and post-2015 flood topography. In conclusion, the results highlight the importance of specific event-based studies, using models that can help designing better strategies for climate change adaptation and risk mitigation, while providing information for risk reduction and channel restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of Hidden Structures Using Sparse Chemical Shift Data from NMR Relaxation Dispersion

NMR relaxation dispersion measurements report on conformational changes occurring on the μs-ms timescale. Chemical shift information derived from relaxation dispersion can be used to generate structural models of weakly populated alternative conformational states. Current methods to obtain such models rely on determining the signs of chemical shift changes between the conformational states, which are difficult to obtain in many situations. Here, we use a “sample and select” method to generate relevant structural models of alternative conformations of the C-terminal-associated region of Escherichia coli dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR), using only unsigned chemical shift changes for backbone amides and carbonyls ( 1 H, 15 N, and 13 C'). We find that CS-Rosetta sampling with unsigned chemical shift changes generates a diversity of structures that are sufficient to characterize a minor conformational state of the C-terminal region of DHFR. The excited state differs from the ground state by a change in secondary structure, consistent with previous predictions from chemical shift hypersurfaces and validated by the x-ray structure of a partially humanized mutant of E. coli DHFR (N23PP/G51PEKN). The results demonstrate that the combination of fragment modeling with sparse chemical shift data can determine the structure of an alternative conformation of DHFR sampled on the μs-ms timescale. Such methods will be useful for characterizing alternative states, which can potentially be used for in silico drug screening, as well as contributing to understanding the role of minor states in biology and molecular evolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Science of the Van Allen Probes Science Operations Centers

The Van Allen Probes mission operations materialized through a distributed model in which operational responsibility was divided between the Mission Operations Center (MOC) and separate instrument specific SOCs. The sole MOC handled all aspects of telemetering and receiving tasks as well as certain scientifically relevant ancillary tasks. Each instrument science team developed individual instrument specific SOCs proficient in unique capabilities in support of science data acquisition, data processing, instrument performance, and tools for the instrument team scientists. In parallel activities, project scientists took on the task of providing a significant modeling tool base usable by the instrument science teams and the larger scientific community. With a mission as complex as Van Allen Probes, scientific inquiry occurred due to constant and significant collaboration between the SOCs and in concert with the project science team. Planned cross-instrument coordinated observations resulted in critical discoveries during the seven-year mission. Instrument cross-calibration activities elucidated a more seamless set of data products. Specific topics include post-launch changes and enhancements to the SOCs, discussion of coordination activities between the SOCs, SOC specific analysis software, modeling software provided by the Van Allen Probes project, and a section on lessons learned. One of the most significant lessons learned was the importance of the original decision to implement individual team SOCs providing timely and well-documented instrument data for the NASA Van Allen Probes Mission scientists and the larger magnetospheric and radiation belt scientific community.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optical spectroscopy of molten fluorides: Methods, electronic and vibrational data, structural interpretation, and relevance to radiative heat transfer

In this study, to help address the need for predicting radiative heat transfer (RHT) behavior of molten salts, we conducted a comprehensive review of methods and data from optical spectroscopic measurements on molten fluoride salts. Transmittance, reflectance, and trans-reflectance experimental methods are discussed, along with the corresponding data reduction methodology and the limitations of each technique. Optical spectroscopy is a convenient indirect probe for changes in structural parameters with temperature and composition. Electronic and vibrational absorption data for transition-metal, lanthanide, and actinide solutes and vibrational absorption data for alkali and alkaline earth fluoride solvents are compiled, and the corresponding structural interpretation is discussed and compared with other experimental and theoretical work. We find that solvent and solute vibrational absorption can be significant in the mid-infrared, resulting in near-infrared edges of significance to RHT. Extrapolation and averaging of existing edge data leads to estimated gray absorption coefficient values at 700 °C of 546 m —1 for FLiBe and 276 m —1 for FLiNaK, both within the range of 1 – 6000 m —1 identified to be of engineering relevance for radiative heat transfer analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations Show Charge Density of Volcanic Plumes is Higher Than Thunderstorms

We analyze slow electric field change and lightning mapping measurements to provide insight into the characteristics of volcanic lightning and the associated implications on charging processes and the charge structure of a Vulcanian eruption plume. Data were obtained during a multi-instrumental field campaign at Sakurajima volcano in 2015 when the Showa crater was active. We combine the electric field change and lightning mapping data from one explosive eruption on June 6, 2015 to identify individual flashes. From this, we interpret the flash type and polarity. In addition, the long-time constant of the electric field change instrument allowed measurement of the quasi-static field associated with charge separation in the eruption plume. We find that both intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges occurred, and the polarity of cloud-to-ground discharges were all negative. The quasi-static field measurement showed the plume carried a net negative charge. We calculate both the total charge transferred by cloud-to-ground discharges and the net charge density of the eruption plume. We find that cloud-to-ground discharges transfer an average of –0.41C per flash and the net charge density was –33C/ km 3 . Here, the percent error is at least 200%, due to uncertainty in the antenna gain. We show that these estimates are consistent with lightning that is 100 m in length. Further, the average flash rate during the first 8 s following the onset of eruption was five flashes per second. After that time, the flash rate abruptly decreased, which may be related to the end of gas-thrust forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Ergonomic Injury Risk in the Nuclear Material Processing Glovebox Environment [Capstone Project]

Gloveboxes are isolation barriers that are used within many different industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic parts fabrication, nuclear, and biological. The research on glovebox ergonomics is currently limited with few ergonomic professionals that focusing exclusively on glovebox working environments. There is existing documentation on occupational injuries, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), sustained as a direct result of working in gloveboxes. The main elements that pose ergonomic risks to glovebox workers are operational repetition, duration, force, vibration, lifting heavy (more than 15lbs with two hands) objects, and awkward postures. This paper examines a small sample of the potential causal or risk factors that lead to the ergonomic injuries. A meta-analysis utilizing a random effect model is used to examine data from several studies which focus on, dexterity and strength changes as result of glove thickness, and robotic assistive technology as a means to improve postural mechanics. With the meta-analysis technique, similar data sets from different research studies can be coalesced into a single weighted, statistically significant result for subsequent consideration. The results from the analysis show that increased glove thickness results in decreased dexterity for operators thus increasing ergonomic risk factors such as task duration. It is also shown that glove thickness decreases grip strength but a similar decrease in pinch strength is not definitively demonstrated. With decreased grip strength, operators will need to exert more force (a known ergonomic risk factor) on processing tools, etc. during operations thus increasing the risk of ergonomic injury. The use of robotic assistive technology as a means to improve operator posture (risk factor) was also examined. Although it may be intuitively assumed that human-robotic collaboration would be beneficial in reducing risk factors, the result from this study’s analysis was not statistically significant. It is inferred that with additional directed research on this topic another study/analysis could be statistically significant demonstrating the benefits of the technology.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lagrangian and Eulerian Supersaturation Statistics in Turbulent Cloudy Rayleigh–Bénard Convection: Applications for LES Subgrid Modeling

Abstract Turbulent fluctuations of scalar and velocity fields are critical for cloud microphysical processes, e.g., droplet activation and size distribution evolution, and can therefore influence cloud radiative forcing and precipitation formation. Lagrangian and Eulerian water vapor, temperature, and supersaturation statistics are investigated in direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in the Pi Convection Cloud Chamber to provide a foundation for parameterizing subgrid-scale fluctuations in atmospheric models. A subgrid model for water vapor and temperature variances and covariance and supersaturation variance is proposed, valid for both clear and cloudy conditions. Evaluation of phase change contributions through an a priori test using DNS data shows good performance of the model. Supersaturation is a nonlinear function of temperature and water vapor, and relative external fluxes of water vapor and heat (e.g., during entrainment-mixing and phase change) influence turbulent supersaturation fluctuations. Although supersaturation has autocorrelation and structure functions similar to the independent scalars (temperature and water vapor), the autocorrelation time scale of supersaturation differs. Relative scalar fluxes in DNS without cloud make supersaturation PDFs less skewed than the adiabatic case, where they are highly negatively skewed. However, droplet condensation changes the PDF shape response: it becomes positively skewed for the adiabatic case and negatively skewed when the sidewall relative fluxes are large. Condensation also increases correlations between water vapor and temperature in the presence of relative scalar fluxes but decreases correlations for the adiabatic case. These changes in correlation suppress supersaturation variability for the nonadiabatic cases and increase it for the adiabatic case. Implications of this work for subgrid microphysics modeling using a Lagrangian stochastic scheme are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Apex Alpha with LabWare-LIMS Data Reduction for Alpha Analyses

Savannah River Site's Environmental Bioassay Laboratory is migrating its laboratory information management system (LIMS) from SQL-LIMS to Oracle Labware-LIMS (LW-LIMS) systems to align with the Department of Energy's cyber security policies. Concurrently with the LIMS upgrade, the current VMS based Alpha Measurement System (AMS) software is being replaced with Apex Alpha software to reduce other cyber vulnerabilities, streamline procedural production aspects of data handling, and improve outdated reduction processes to align the program with requirements outlined in ANSI N13.30. The primary technical changes which are being implemented are: - Reagent contributions are added in data reduction, - Moving average background equivalent activity are used for gross signal corrections, - Measured uncertainty of both are included in the decision level and propagated uncertainty, - Tracer levels are increased for precision and accuracy improvements, and - Reports are modified for compliance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T AC (x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T AC (x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). Here we address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T AC (x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T AC (x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T AC (x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multispectral UAV imagery of experimental freshwater wetlands under 5 ppt saltwater intrusion, Louisiana, 2023 and 2024

Multispectral imagery was collected using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to evaluate how freshwater vegetation responds to short-term simulated saltwater intrusion events. The purpose of this data collection was to understand how plant health changes in response to acute salinity exposure, which is increasingly relevant in coastal wetland ecosystems facing sea level rise and storm surge events, such as in coastal Louisiana. Three experimental saltwater intrusions were conducted at a salinity of approximately 5 parts per thousand (ppt) for durations of 6-days, 10-days, and 17-days. UAV flights occurred both before and after each treatment. The resulting imagery was processed using Pix4DMapper software to georeference the images and generate orthomosaics. The multispectral sensor used in this study captures reflectance in five bands: blue, green, red, red-edge, and near-infrared. The uploaded data consist of georeferenced .tif orthomosaics for each spectral band, which are compatible with GIS software for vegetation analysis. This imagery can be utilized in investigations into vegetation stress, remote sensing of freshwater wetland ecosystems, and modeling of plant response to environmental changes.

EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > ECOSYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling real-time adaptation of machine learning models at x-ray Free Electron Laser facilities with high-speed training optimized computational hardware

The emergence of novel computational hardware is enabling a new paradigm for rapid machine learning model training. For the Department of Energy’s major research facilities, this developing technology will enable a highly adaptive approach to experimental sciences. In this manuscript we present the per-epoch and end-to-end training times for an example of a streaming diagnostic that is planned for the upcoming high-repetition rate x-ray Free Electron Laser, the Linac Coherent Light Source-II. We explore the parameter space of batch size and data parallel training across multiple Graphics Processing Units and Reconfigurable Dataflow Units. We show the landscape of training times with a goal of full model retraining in under 15 min. Although a full from scratch retraining of a model may not be required in all cases, we nevertheless present an example of the application of emerging computational hardware for adapting machine learning models to changing environments in real-time, during streaming data acquisition, at the rates expected for the data fire hoses of accelerator-based user facilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗