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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Space Launch System Unsteady Forces Developed from Unsteady-Pressure-Sensitive-Paint–Based Corcos Model Parameters

During atmospheric ascent, launch vehicles (LVs) experience large dynamic loads at transonic conditions where aerodynamic buffet is most critical. To estimate buffet loads, coupled loads analyses typically utilize suitable forcing functions, called buffet forcing functions (BFFs). One of the key buffet environment contributors is the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) on the LV outer skin. The TBL-induced fluctuating pressures can be estimated using the widely-accepted Corcos model. In the context of transonic buffet, the performance of this model is not well established, partly because of lack of data. To fill this gap, NASA recently acquired extremely high-spatial-density data for the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle, using the unsteady pressure sensitive paint (uPSP) optical measurement technique. A methodology is developed for validation of the Corcos model using these unique data, with a focus on the LV-design application. The model hypotheses are verified and the model parameters are empirically tuned. For selected panels on the vehicle, BFF coherence factors are derived based on the Corcos model and the associated panel BFFs are compared to uPSP data. It is shown that the modeled BFFs are in agreement with direct integration of uPSP data, except for regions where pressure fluctuations are spatially nonuniform. In those regions, the Corcos-based BFFs exhibit inherent limitations of BFF estimation methods that rely on discrete pressure measurements.

buffet↗
NASA NTRS2009

The GLACE-2 Experiment

A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conditional distribution estimation of building characteristics with diffusion models for urban energy modeling

Understanding current energy consumption behavior in communities is critical for informing future energy use decisions and enabling efficient energy management. Urban energy models, which are used to simulate these energy use patterns, require large datasets with detailed building characteristics for accurate outcomes. However, such detailed characteristics at the individual building level are often unknown and costly to acquire, or unavailable. Through this work, we propose using a generative modeling approach to generate realistic building attributes to fill in the data gaps and finally provide complete characteristics as inputs to energy models. Our model learns complex, building-level patterns from training on a large-scale residential building stock model containing 2.2 million buildings. We employ a tabular diffusion-based framework that is designed to handle heterogeneous (discrete and continuous) features in tabular building data, such as occupancy, floor area, heating, cooling, and other equipment details. We develop a capability for conditional diffusion, enabling the imputation of missing building characteristics conditioned on known attributes. We conduct a comprehensive validation of our conditional diffusion model, firstly by comparing the generated conditional distributions against the underlying data distribution, and secondly, by performing a case study for a Baltimore residential region, showing the practical utility of our approach. Our work is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of generative modeling to accelerate building energy modeling workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

5-minute Wind Power Data based on WFIP2 WRF Simulation

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) was a public-private partnership funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and NOAA, aimed at enhancing the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction models for turbine-height winds in regions with complex terrain. An 18-month Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation was conducted over the Pacific Northwest, with model outputs validated against observational data collected during WFIP2. Simulated wind speeds were used to estimate wind power generation using reV (the Renewable Energy Potential Model developed by NREL) at ten wind project sites. Two sets of results were produced: one using wind speeds extracted from the model grid cell at the project centroid, and another using wind speeds from the actual turbine locations. For each dataset, power output was calculated using both actual turbine-specific power curves and nine generic power curves to convert wind speed into power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

$\nu_μ$ Disappearance in MicroBooNE using the Deep Learning 1$\mu$1$p$ Selection

We test a 3+1 model with the MicroBooNE data using a 1µ1p selection developed using Deep-Learning-based reconstruction. In order to test this model we apply a muon neutrino disappearance effect to the selection, and search across a grid of oscillation model parameters using a Feldman Cousins technique. We determine MicroBooNE’s sensitivity across this model parameter space, and perform several validation studies to test this study’s robustness. Finally, we examine the allowed and excluded regions per MicroBooNE’s data at 90% confidence, using a data set corresponding to 6.67 × 10 20 protons on target. The null model remains allowed, and several of the high-disappearance models are excluded.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

$\nu_μ$ Disappearance in MicroBooNE using the Deep Learning 1$\mu$1$p$ Selection

We test a 3+1 model with the MicroBooNE data using a 1µ1p selection developed using Deep-Learning-based reconstruction. In order to test this model we apply a muon neutrino disappearance effect to the selection, and search across a grid of oscillation model parameters using a Feldman Cousins technique. We determine MicroBooNE’s sensitivity across this model parameter space, and perform several validation studies to test this study’s robustness. Finally, we examine the allowed and excluded regions per MicroBooNE’s data at 90% confidence, using a data set corresponding to 6.67 × 10 20 protons on target. The null model remains allowed, and several of the high-disappearance models are excluded.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effective Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Aerosol Remote Sensing Over Ocean

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements can enable detailed characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties and improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere–ocean system. Theoretical pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties based on error propagation have been used to quantify retrieval performance and determine the quality of data products. However, standard error propagation techniques in high-dimensional retrievals may not always represent true retrieval errors well due to issues such as local minima and the nonlinear dependence of the forward model on the retrieved parameters near the solution. In this work, we analyze these theoretical uncertainty estimates and validate them using a flexible Monte Carlo approach. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on efficient neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification on both synthetic HARP2 (Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2) and AirHARP (airborne version of HARP2) datasets. In addition, for practical application of the uncertainty evaluation technique in operational data processing, we use the automatic differentiation method to calculate derivatives analytically based on the neural network models. Both the speed and accuracy associated with uncertainty quantification for MAP retrievals are addressed in this study. Pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties are further evaluated for the real AirHARP field campaign data. The uncertainty quantification methods and results can be used to evaluate the quality of data products, as well as guide MAP algorithm development for current and future satellite systems such as NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission.

PACE↗
DOE OSTI2026

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyOECP: A flexible open-source software library for estimating and modeling the complex permittivity based on the open-ended coaxial probe (OECP) technique

Here, we present PyOECP, a Python-based flexible open-source software for estimating and modeling the complex permittivity obtained from the open-ended coaxial probe (OECP) technique. The transformation of the measured reflection coefficient to complex permittivity is performed based on three different methods. The software library contains the dielectric spectra of common reference liquids, which can be used to transform the reflection coefficient into the dielectric spectra. Several Python routines that are commonly employed (e.g., SciPy and NumPy) in the field of science and engineering are required only so that the users can alter the software structure depending on their needs. The modeling algorithm exploits the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the data regression. The discrete relaxation models can be built by a proper combination of well-known relaxation models. In addition to these models, electrode polarization, a typical measurement artifact for interpreting dielectric spectra, can be incorporated into the modeling algorithm. A continuous relaxation model, which solves the Fredholm integral equation of the first kind (a mathematically ill-posed problem), is also included. This open-source software enables users to freely adjust the physical parameters to obtain physical insight into their materials under test and will be consistently updated for more accurate measurement and interpretation of dielectric spectra in an automated manner. This work describes the theoretical and mathematical background of the software, lays out the workflow, and validates the software functionality based on both synthetic and empirical data included in the software.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA-Langley Web-Based Operational Real-time Cloud Retrieval Products from Geostationary Satellites

At NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), radiances from multiple satellites are analyzed in near real-time to produce cloud products over many regions on the globe. These data are valuable for many applications such as diagnosing aircraft icing conditions and model validation and assimilation. This paper presents an overview of the multiple products available, summarizes the content of the online database, and details web-based satellite browsers and tools to access satellite imagery and products.

Palikonda, Rabindra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of Residual Water in Spent Fuel Dry Storage Canisters Using Mass Spectrometry

The purpose of this report is to document updates on the apparatus to simulate commercial vacuum drying procedures at the Nuclear Energy Work Complex at Sandia National Laboratories. Validation of the extent of water removal in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage system based on drying procedures used at nuclear power plants is needed to close existing technical gaps. Operational conditions leading to incomplete drying may have potential impacts on the fuel, cladding, and other components in the system during subsequent storage and disposal, such as fuel degradation; cladding corrosion, embrittlement, or breaching; and the creation of a flammable environment via radiolysis of water. A general lack of data suitable for model validation of commercial nuclear canister drying processes necessitates well-designed investigations of drying process efficacy and water retention. Scaled tests that incorporate relevant physics and well-controlled boundary conditions are essential to provide insight and guidance to the simulation of prototypic systems undergoing drying processes. This report documents details on the quantification of residual water in the Advanced Drying Cycle Simulator (ADCS), an apparatus built to simulate commercial drying procedures and quantify the amount of residual water remaining in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly after drying. The ADCS was constructed with a prototypic 17×17 PWR fuel skeleton and waterproof heater rods to simulate decay heat. The ADCS is outfitted with thermocouples to measure the thermal response of the ADCS to simulated decay heats and internal helium fill pressures relevant to commercial drying procedures. The ADCS is also instrumented with pressure transducers to measure the pressures and vacuum levels observed during simulated commercial drying. The most unique instrumentation used for quantifying residual water in the ADCS is a Hiden Analytical HPR-30 mass spectrometer (MS), which measures gas compositions of the ADCS internal free volume, based on partial pressures calculated from relative proportions of gas molecules detected by the MS. This report details the methodology used to implement MS measurements in quantifying residual water in the ADCS. This methodology includes the calibration of the HPR-30 MS to a Buck Research Instruments CR-4 chilled mirror hygrometer, which itself is calibrated to a NIST-traceable standard. Data collected by both the MS and the chilled mirror hygrometer from water/helium mixtures ranging from 150 to 500,000 ppmv water in helium were used to generate calibration curves, establishing a source of verification of MS measured water contents. Details regarding water content measurement uncertainties are included in this report, defining the accuracy and verifiability of the HPR-30 MS in measuring residual water content in simulated dry storage canister environments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ground-based measurements of galactic cosmic ray fragmentation in shielding

The mean free path for nuclear interactions of galactic cosmic-rays is comparable to shielding and tissue thicknesses present in human interplanetary exploration, resulting in a significant fraction of nuclear reaction products at depth. In order to characterize the radiation field, the energy spectrum, the angular distribution, and the multiplicity of each type of secondary particles must also be known as a function of depth. Reactions can take place anywhere in a thick absorber; therefore, it is necessary to know these quantities as a function of particle energy for all particles produced. HZE transport methods are used to predict the radiation field; they are dependent on models of the interaction of man-made systems with the space environment to an even greater extent than methods used for other types of radiation. Hence, there is a major need to validate these transport codes by comparison with experimental data. The most cost-effective method of validation is a comparison with ground-based experimental measurements. A research program to provide such validation measurements using neon, iron and other accelerated heavy ion beams will be discussed and illustrated using results from ongoing experiments and their comparison with current transport codes. The extent to which physical measurements yield radiobiological predictions will be discussed.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2021

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Reinforcement Learning (ARL) Control of a Multi-port Resonant Converter in UAV Systems

This study presents an adaptive reinforcement learning (ARL) control framework for a multi-port resonant converter used in hybrid unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) power systems. The converter integrates high-frequency half-bridge input ports connected to a rectified engine–generator set and a battery energy storage system, along with a semi-bridgeless active rectifier supplying the propulsion load. A deep RL agent is trained to dynamically regulate inter-port phase-shift commands in real time based on flight conditions and load power demand. The ARL controller autonomously identifies phase-shift combinations that maximize conversion efficiency while maintaining stable and coordinated power flow, even under rapidly varying operating scenarios. This data-driven approach eliminates the need for explicit system modeling or extensive manual tuning and enables coordinated control among multiple power ports without inter-port communication. Experimental results validate that the ARL based strategy achieves reliable power sharing and consistently high-efficiency operation across diverse UAV operating conditions.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗