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DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Information Incorporated Household Energy Consumption Analysis

The high energy consumption from residential buildings provides them large potential to participate in demand response programs. To design appropriate demand response programs for residential buildings, it is important for electric utilities to know the energy consumption characteristics for different types of households so that utilities can send requests to the groups with a higher possibility to successfully respond. In this paper, we develop a load model to generate synthetic load profiles for different types of households incorporating demographical information including Current Population Survey data set and American Time Use Survey data set. The details of each data set and the details of the load models are presented. The synthetic household load profiles are generated by the load model and clustered into different groups based on state, age, number of occupants, income level, and city of the household. The average energy consumption characteristics for different groups of households are analyzed and compared, which will help electric utilities issue demand response signals to appropriate households.

building loads↗

DOE OSTI2021

Genome Analysis of a Verrucomicrobial Endosymbiont With a Tiny Genome Discovered in an Antarctic Lake

Organic Lake in Antarctica is a marine-derived, cold (–13°C), stratified (oxic-anoxic), hypersaline (>200 gl –1 ) system with unusual chemistry (very high levels of dimethylsulfide) that supports the growth of phylogenetically and metabolically diverse microorganisms. Symbionts are not well characterized in Antarctica. However, unicellular eukaryotes are often present in Antarctic lakes and theoretically could harbor endosymbionts. Here, we describe Candidatus Organicella extenuata, a member of the Verrucomicrobia with a highly reduced genome, recovered as a metagenome-assembled genome with genetic code 4 (UGA-to-Trp recoding) from Organic Lake. It is closely related to Candidatus Pinguicocccus supinus (163,218 bp, 205 genes), a newly described cytoplasmic endosymbiont of the freshwater ciliate Euplotes vanleeuwenhoeki (Serra et al., 2020). At 158,228 bp (encoding 194 genes), the genome of Ca. Organicella extenuata is among the smallest known bacterial genomes and similar to the genome of Ca. Pinguicoccus supinus (163,218 bp, 205 genes). Ca. Organicella extenuata retains a capacity for replication, transcription, translation, and protein-folding while lacking any capacity for the biosynthesis of amino acids or vitamins. Notably, the endosymbiont retains a capacity for fatty acid synthesis (type II) and iron–sulfur (Fe-S) cluster assembly. Metagenomic analysis of 150 new metagenomes from Organic Lake and more than 70 other Antarctic aquatic locations revealed a strong correlation in abundance between Ca. Organicella extenuata and a novel ciliate of the genus Euplotes. Like Ca. Pinguicoccus supinus, we infer that Ca. Organicella extenuata is an endosymbiont of Euplotes and hypothesize that both Ca. Organicella extenuata and Ca. Pinguicocccus supinus provide fatty acids and Fe-S clusters to their Euplotes host as the foundation of a mutualistic symbiosis. The discovery of Ca. Organicella extenuata as possessing genetic code 4 illustrates that in addition to identifying endosymbionts by sequencing known symbiotic communities and searching metagenome data using reference endosymbiont genomes, the potential exists to identify novel endosymbionts by searching for unusual coding parameters.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Information Incorporated Household Energy Consumption Analysis: Preprint

building loads↗

DOE OSTI2021

The history of metal enrichment traced by X-ray observations of high-redshift galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT We present the analysis of deep X-ray observations of 10 massive galaxy clusters at redshifts 1.05 < z < 1.71, with the primary goal of measuring the metallicity of the intracluster medium (ICM) at intermediate radii, to better constrain models of the metal enrichment of the intergalactic medium. The targets were selected from X-ray and Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect surveys, and observed with both the XMM–Newton and Chandra satellites. For each cluster, a precise gas mass profile was extracted, from which the value of r500 could be estimated. This allows us to define consistent radial ranges over which the metallicity measurements can be compared. In general, the data are of sufficient quality to extract meaningful metallicity measurements in two radial bins, r < 0.3r500 and 0.3 < r/r500 < 1.0. For the outer bin, the combined measurement for all 10 clusters, Z/Z⊙ = 0.21 ± 0.09, represents a substantial improvement in precision over previous results. This measurement is consistent with, but slightly lower than, the average metallicity of 0.315 solar measured at intermediate-to-large radii in low-redshift clusters. Combining our new high-redshift data with the previous low-redshift results allows us to place the tightest constraints to date on models of the evolution of cluster metallicity at intermediate radii. Adopting a power-law model of the form Z ∝ (1 + z)γ, we measure a slope $\gamma = -0.5^{+0.4}_{-0.3}$, consistent with the majority of the enrichment of the ICM having occurred at very early times and before massive clusters formed, but leaving open the possibility that some additional enrichment in these regions may have occurred since a redshift of 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learning based approach to examine ecological processes influencing the diversity of riverine dissolved organic matter composition

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) assemblages in freshwater rivers are formed from mixtures of simple to complex compounds that are highly variable across time and space. These mixtures largely form due to the environmental heterogeneity of river networks and the contribution of diverse allochthonous and autochthonous DOM sources. Most studies are, however, confined to local and regional scales, which precludes an understanding of how these mixtures arise at large, e.g., continental, spatial scales. The processes contributing to these mixtures are also difficult to study because of the complex interactions between various environmental factors and DOM. Here we propose the use of machine learning (ML) approaches to identify ecological processes contributing toward mixtures of DOM at a continental-scale. We related a dataset that characterized the molecular composition of DOM from river water and sediment with Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to explanatory physicochemical variables such as nutrient concentrations and stable water isotopes ( 2 H and 18 O). Using unsupervised ML, distinctive clusters for sediment and water samples were identified, with unique molecular compositions influenced by environmental factors like terrestrial input and microbial activity. Sediment clusters showed a higher proportion of protein-like and unclassified compounds than water clusters, while water clusters exhibited a more diversified chemical composition. We then applied a supervised ML approach, involving a two-stage use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. In the first stage, SHAP values were obtained and used to identify key physicochemical variables. These parameters were employed to train models using both the default and subsequently tuned hyperparameters of the Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGB) algorithm. The supervised ML approach, using HGB and SHAP values, highlighted complex relationships between environmental factors and DOM diversity, in particular the existence of dams upstream, precipitation events, and other watershed characteristics were important in predicting higher chemical diversity in DOM. Our data-driven approach can now be used more generally to reveal the interplay between physical, chemical, and biological factors in determining the diversity of DOM in other ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extracting structural motifs from pair distribution function data of nanostructures using explainable machine learning

Characterization of material structure with X-ray or neutron scattering using e.g. Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis most often rely on refining a structure model against an experimental dataset. However, identifying a suitable model is often a bottleneck. Recently, automated approaches have made it possible to test thousands of models for each dataset, but these methods are computationally expensive and analysing the output, i.e. extracting structural information from the resulting fits in a meaningful way, is challenging. Our Machine Learning based Motif Extractor (ML-MotEx) trains an ML algorithm on thousands of fits, and uses SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values to identify which model features are important for the fit quality. We use the method for 4 different chemical systems, including disordered nanomaterials and clusters. ML-MotEx opens for a type of modelling where each feature in a model is assigned an importance value for the fit quality based on explainable ML.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Analysis of Hydrologic Exchange Flows and Transit Time Distributions in a Large Regulated River

Hydrologic exchange between river channels and adjacent subsurface environments is a key process that influences water quality and ecosystem function in river corridors. High-resolution numerical models were often used to resolve the spatial and temporal variations of exchange flows, which are computationally expensive. In this study, we adopt Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) approaches for deriving reduced order models of hydrologic exchange flows and associated transit time distributions, with integrated field observations (e.g., bathymetry) and hydrodynamic simulation data (e.g., river velocity, depth). The setup allows an improved understanding of the influences of various physical, spatial, and temporal factors on the hydrologic exchange flows and transit times. The predictors also contain those derived using hybrid clustering, leveraging our previous work on river corridor system hydromorphic classification. The machine learning-based predictive models are developed and validated along the Columbia River Corridor, and the results show that the top parameters are the thickness of the top geological formation layer, the flow regime, river velocity, and river depth; the RF and XGB models can achieve 70% to 80% accuracy and therefore are effective alternatives to the computational demanding numerical models of exchange flows and transit time distributions. Each machine learning model with its favorable configuration and setup have been evaluated. The transferability of the models to other river reaches and larger scales, which mostly depends on data availability, is also discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fiducial-cosmology-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis

When measuring the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) scale from galaxy surveys, one typically assumes a fiducial cosmology when converting redshift measurements into comoving distances and also when defining input parameters for the reconstruction algorithm. A parameterised template for the model to be fitted is also created based on a (possibly different) fiducial cosmology. This model reliance can be considered a form of data compression, and the data is then analysed allowing that the true answer is different from the fiducial cosmology assumed. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the fiducial cosmology assumed in the BAO analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey Data Release 1 (DR1) on the final measurements in DESI 2024 III. We utilise a suite of mock galaxy catalogues with survey realism that mirrors the DESI DR1 tracers: the bright galaxy sample (BGS), the luminous red galaxies (LRG), the emission line galaxies (ELG) and the quasars (QSO), spanning a redshift range from 0.1 to 2.1. We compare the four secondary AbacusSummit cosmologies against DESI's fiducial cosmology (Planck 2018). The secondary cosmologies explored include a lower cold dark matter density, a thawing dark energy universe, a higher number of effective species, and a lower amplitude of matter clustering. The mocks are processed through the BAO pipeline by consistently iterating the grid, template, and reconstruction reference cosmologies. We determine a conservative systematic contribution to the error of 0.1% for both the isotropic and anisotropic dilation parameters αiso and αAP. We then directly test the impact of the fiducial cosmology on DESI DR1 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of twelve genomes of the bacterium Kerstersia gyiorum from brown-throated sloths ( Bradypus variegatus ), the first from a non-human host

Kerstersia gyiorum is a Gram-negative bacterium found in various animals, including humans, where it has been associated with various infections. Knowledge of the basic biology of K. gyiorum is essential to understand the evolutionary strategies of niche adaptation and how this organism contributes to infectious diseases; however, genomic data about K. gyiorum is very limited, especially from non-human hosts. In this work, we sequenced 12 K. gyiorum genomes isolated from healthy free-living brown-throated sloths (Bradypus variegatus) in the Parque Estadual das Fontes do Ipiranga (São Paulo, Brazil), and compared them with genomes from isolates of human origin, in order to gain insights into genomic diversity, phylogeny, and host specialization of this species. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these K. gyiorum strains are structured according to host. Despite the fact that sloth isolates were sampled from a single geographic location, the intra-sloth K. gyiorum diversity was divided into three clusters, with differences of more than 1,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms between them, suggesting the circulation of various K. gyiorum lineages in sloths. Genes involved in mobilome and defense mechanisms against mobile genetic elements were the main source of gene content variation between isolates from different hosts. Sloth-specific K. gyiorum genome features include an IncN2 plasmid, a phage sequence, and a CRISPR-Cas system. The broad diversity of defense elements in K. gyiorum (14 systems) may prevent further mobile element flow and explain the low amount of mobile genetic elements in K. gyiorum genomes. Gene content variation may be important for the adaptation of K. gyiorum to different host niches. This study furthers our understanding of diversity, host adaptation, and evolution of K. gyiorum, by presenting and analyzing the first genomes of non-human isolates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cosmological cross-correlations and nearest neighbour distributions

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between data sets are used in many different contexts in cosmological analyses. Recently, k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions (kNN-CDF) were shown to be sensitive probes of cosmological (auto) clustering. In this paper, we extend the framework of NN measurements to describe joint distributions of, and correlations between, two data sets. We describe the measurement of joint kNN-CDFs, and show that these measurements are sensitive to all possible connected N-point functions that can be defined in terms of the two data sets. We describe how the cross-correlations can be isolated by combining measurements of the joint kNN-CDFs and those measured from individual data sets. We demonstrate the application of these measurements in the context of Gaussian density fields, as well as for fully non-linear cosmological data sets. Using a Fisher analysis, we show that measurements of the halo-matter cross-correlations, as measured through NN measurements are more sensitive to the underlying cosmological parameters, compared to traditional two-point cross-correlation measurements over the same range of scales. Finally, we demonstrate how the NN cross-correlations can robustly detect cross-correlations between sparse samples – the same regime where the two-point cross-correlation measurements are dominated by noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of mobility data to build contact networks for COVID-19

As social distancing policies and recommendations went into effect in response to COVID-19, people made rapid changes to the places they visit. These changes are clearly seen in mobility data, which records foot traffic using location trackers in cell phones. While mobility data is often used to extract the number of customers that visit a particular business or business type, it is the frequency and duration of concurrent occupancy at those sites that governs transmission. Understanding the way people interact at different locations can help target policies and inform contact tracing and prevention strategies. This paper outlines methods to extract interactions from mobility data and build networks that can be used in epidemiological models. Several measures of interaction are extracted: interactions between people, the cumulative interactions for a single person, and cumulative interactions that occur at particular businesses. Network metrics are computed to identify structural trends which show clear changes based on the timing of stay-at-home orders. Measures of interaction and structural trends in the resulting networks can be used to better understand potential spreading events, the percent of interactions that can be classified as close contacts, and the impact of policy choices to control transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Atomically Dispersed Catalysts Using Deep Learning Assisted Microscopy

The catalytic performance of atomically dispersed catalysts (ADCs) is greatly influenced by their atomic configurations, such as atom–atom distances, clustering of atoms into dimers and trimers, and their distributions. Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is a powerful technique for imaging ADCs at the atomic scale; however, most STEM analyses of ADCs thus far have relied on human labeling, making it difficult to analyze large data sets. Here, we introduce a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based algorithm capable of quantifying the spatial arrangement of different adatom configurations. The algorithm was tested on different ADCs with varying support crystallinity and homogeneity. Results show that our algorithm can accurately identify atom positions and effectively analyze large data sets. Here, this work provides a robust method to overcome a major bottleneck in STEM analysis for ADC catalyst research. We highlight the potential of this method to serve as an on-the-fly analysis tool for catalysts in future in situ microscopy experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Signatures of Geothermal Exploration Data with Machine Learning Techniques: An Application to the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis

We are introducing machine learning methods to the play fairway analysis to generate geothermal potential maps to support the evaluation of geothermal resource potential and the exploration for undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Nevada Great Basin region. Our project aims to identify new ways to combine the play fairway data and empirically organize relationships between feature weights and labels in an improved workflow. As a means of doing this, we introduce machine learning methods to evaluate the influence of certain geological and geophysical features/feature sets in predicting geothermal favorability. This report highlights promising approaches based on supervised and unsupervised learning methods. First, we demonstrate a filter method applied to supervised classification modeling. The supervised filter method is based on permutation analysis to evaluate every possible feature combination/drop out scenario and rank feature influence based on the performance variance of supervised classification models. Additionally, we present an unsupervised factor analysis based on principal component analysis coupled with a semi-supervised kmeans clustering algorithm. This analysis allows us to identify the optimal number of groups/clusters for training sites and structural settings to identify feature patterns including correlation, variance, and latent and dominant feature relationships. The results from these methods offer a promising avenue for identifying favorable sources of predictive information to identify the locations of blind geothermal systems and furthering our understanding of complex geothermal feature and label relationships in the Great Basin region and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atom Probe Tomography Investigation of Clustering in Model P 2 O 5 -Doped Borosilicate Glasses for Nuclear Waste Vitrification

Atom probe tomography (APT) has been utilized to investigate the microstructure of two model borosilicate glasses designed to understand the solubility limits of phosphorous pentoxide (P 2 O 5 ). This component is found in certain high-level radioactive defence wastes destined for vitrification, where phase separation can potentially lead to a number of issues relating to the processing of the glass and its long-term chemical and structural stability. The development of suitable focused ion beam (FIB)-preparation routes and APT analysis conditions were initially determined for the model glasses, before examining their detailed microstructures. In a 3.0 mol% P 2 O 5 -doped glass, both visual inspection and sensitive statistical analysis of the APT data show homogeneous microstructures, while raising the content to 4.0 mol% initiates the formation of phosphorus-enriched nanoscale precipitates. This study confirms the expected inhomogeneities and phase separation of these glasses and offers routes to characterizing these at near-atomic scale resolution using APT.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impact of the fiducial cosmology assumption on BAO distance scale measurements

ABSTRACT Standard analysis pipelines for measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) in galaxy surveys make use of a fiducial cosmological model to guide the data compression required to transform from observed redshifts and angles to the measured angular and radial BAO peak positions. In order to remove any dependence on the fiducial cosmology from the results, all models compared to the data should mimic the compression and its dependence on the fiducial model. In practice, approximations are made when testing models: (1) There is assumed to be no residual dependence on the fiducial cosmology after reconstruction, (2) differences in the distance–redshift relationship are assumed to match a linear scaling, and (3) differences in clustering between true and fiducial models are assumed to be removed by the free parameters used to null the non-BAO signal. We test these approximations using the current standard measurement procedure with a set of halo catalogues from the aemulus suite of N-body simulations, which span a range of wCDM cosmological models. We focus on reconstruction of the primordial BAO and locating the BAO. For the range of wCDM cosmologies covered by the aemulus suite, we find no evidence for systematic errors in the measured BAO shift parameters α∥ and α⊥ to $\lt 0.1\%$. However, the measured errors $\sigma _{\alpha _{\parallel }}$ and $\sigma _{\alpha _{\bot }}$ show a notable absolute increase by up to +0.001 and +0.002, respectively, in the case that the fiducial cosmology does not match the truth. These effects on the inferred BAO scale will be important, given the precision of measurements expected from future surveys including DESI, Euclid, and WFIRST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗