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Who is participating in residential energy efficiency programs? Exploring demographic and other household characteristics of participants in utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs

In addition to benefiting all customers by reducing the total electric system cost, utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs provide direct benefits to the participants. Understanding the current demographic and household characteristics of participants will help assess the extent of inequities in program participation and figure out what characteristics need to be targeted to achieve equitable outcomes. This report describes how 11 demographic and household characteristics including income, race and ethnicity, and education affect participation in residential utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs. It compiles previous work on this topic and adds new primary analysis of four datasets with different levels of detail from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), two New England states, and a Midwestern state.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High Efficacy, Long Lifetime Flexible White OLED Lighting Panels

In this project, OLEDWorks and partners made significant progress in advancing OLED light extraction technology. Improving light extraction efficiency remains one of the most important research topics for OLEDs. Current state-of-the-art white OLED products extract only about 50% of the photons that are generated within the device. Promising new light extraction concepts, such as those based on sub electrode micro lens arrays (SEMLAs), were explored in this project with the potential to achieve extraction efficiency of 60% or higher. Flexible thin glass substrates with integrated SEMLAs were successfully fabricated and scaled to large area. When combined with optimized high efficiency stacked white OLED structures, we achieved the program goals of 120 LPW efficacy and long lifetime more than 100,000 hours.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Future of Zero Energy Buildings: Produce, Respond, Regenerate: Preprint

The zero energy buildings concept is more than 20 years old, and the paradigm shift from buildings as energy consumers to buildings as energy producers is underway. Buildings also consume land and material resources, however, with attendant environmental impacts. Another paradigm is emerging: a built environment that produces energy and is environmentally responsive and regenerative. This paper investigates an updated framework for thinking about zero energy buildings that includes discussions of prioritizing renewables; determining on-site versus off-site generation; exploring how and when buildings should use energy; and balancing renewables, storage, and energy efficiency. Buildings are typically connected to the utility grid and the utility grid develops largely in response to the built environment. If more buildings’ real time electricity use aligned with renewable generation, more renewables would be added to the grid. Ultimately, the goal for zero energy buildings will be to use 100% renewables, 100% of the time, matching loads with energy storage and renewable generation at each discrete timestep over a year. This target is beyond the current zero energy definitions, which focus on an annual balance of renewable supply and energy demand and use the grid to “store” excess production to make up for hours without sufficient on-site renewable generation. This paper expands this upgraded concept and outlines simple metrics to evaluate the alignment of renewable sources and storage with building loads. This process can provide insights on building design considerations, including the use of flexible loads and optimal resource management.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Exact and locally implicit source term solvers for multifluid-Maxwell systems

Recently, a family of models that couple multifluid systems to the full Maxwell equations have been used in laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasma modeling. These models are more complete descriptions of the plasma than reduced models like magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) since they are derived more closely from the full kinetic Vlasov-Maxwell system, without assumptions like quasi-neutrality, negligible electron mass, etc. Thus these models naturally retain non-ideal MHD effects like electron inertia, Hall term, pressure anisotropy/nongyrotropy, displacement current, among others. One obstacle to broader application of these model is that an explicit treatment of their source terms leads to the need to resolve rapid processes like plasma oscillation and electron cyclotron motion, even when these are not important. In this paper, we suggest two ways to address this issue. First, we derive the analytic solutions to the source update equations, which can be implemented as a practical, but less generic solver. We then develop a time-centered, locally implicit algorithm to update the source terms, allowing stepping over the fast kinetic time-scales. For a plasma with S species, the locally implicit algorithm involves inverting a local (3 S + 3) × (3 S + 3) matrix only, thus is very efficient. The performance can be further increased by using the direct update formulas to skip null calculations. In this paper, we present benchmarks illustrating the exact energy-conservation of the locally implicit solver, as well as its efficiency and robustness for both small-scale, idealized problems and largescale, complex systems. The locally implicit algorithm can be also easily extended to include other local sources, like collisions and ionization, which are difficult to solve analytically.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computational analysis of deployable wind turbine systems in defense operational energy applications.

The U.S. military has been exploring pathways to reduce the logistical burden of fuel on virtually all their missions globally. Energy harvesting of local resources such as wind and solar can help increase the resilience and operational effectiveness of military units, especially at the most forward operating bases where the fuel logistics are most challenging. This report considers the potential benefits of wind energy provided by deployable wind turbines as measured by a reduction in fuel consumption and supply convoys to a hypothetical network of Army Infantry Brigade Combat Team bases. Two modeling and simulation tools are used to represent the bases and their operations and quantify the impacts of system design variables that include wind turbine technologies, battery storage, number of turbines, and wind resource quality. The System of Systems Analysis Toolkit Joint Operational Energy Model serves as a baseline scenario for comparison. The Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources simulation tool is used to optimize a single base within the larger Joint Operational Energy Model. The results of both tools show that wind turbines can provide significant benefits to contingency bases in terms of reduced fuel use and number of convoy trips to resupply the base. The match between the turbine design and wind resource, which is statistically low across most of the global land area, is a critical design consideration. The addition of battery storage can enhance the benefits of wind turbines, especially in systems with more wind turbines and higher wind resources. Wind turbines may also provide additional benefits to other metrics such as resilience that may be important but not fully considered in the current analysis. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their helpful support, feedback and review to improve this report: U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office, Patrick Gilman and Bret Barker; Idaho National Laboratory, Jake Gentle and Bradley Whipple; The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Robert Preus and Tony Jimenez; Sandia National Laboratories, Alan Nanco, Dennis Anderson, and Hai Le. In addition, numerous discussions with military and industry stakeholders over the year were invaluable in focusing the efforts represented in this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Transitioning to a Sustainable, Circular Economy for Plastics [Workshop Report]

The “Transitioning to a Sustainable, Circular Economy for Plastics” workshop, coordinated by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Office (AMMTO) in collaboration with The Climate Pledge, brought together a diverse group of stakeholders to discuss the current challenges and opportunities in transitioning to a sustainable, circular economy for plastics in the United States. Input from the workshop will be used to ensure the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Strategy for Plastics Innovation (SPI) evolves with the rapidly changing landscape. Presentations, panel discussions, and breakout sessions provided a framework for sharing information and building direct connections among stakeholders across the value chain. This document summarizes the content discussed at the workshop to provide an update on the state of plastic sustainability in the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Bipolar Membranes with an Electrospun 3D Junction

Freestanding bipolar membranes (BPMs) with an entirely new and transformative morphology were fabricated and characterized. The key disruptive design element was a water-splitting/water-generation junction layer of finite thickness composed of interwoven and interlocking electrospun anion-exchange polymer (AEP) fibers and cation-exchange polymer (CEP) fibers. Methods were developed to sandwich the 3D junction layer between two pre-formed dense AEP and CEP films., with the closure of all interfiber voids, where the processing steps are easily incorporated into a commercial roll-to-roll membrane manufacturing scheme. A series of membranes were made using different polymers and junction layers to identify the optimum morphology and composition for water-splitting and water-generation applications. For water splitting, the 3D junction BPMs worked remarkably well with operating current densities at/above 1.0 A/cm2 (10X greater than commercial BPMs) at a transmembrane voltage drop of only 1.1 V. In water generation mode, the 3D junction BPMs operated at 0.5 A/cm2, a world-record current density. The membranes were found to exhibit outstanding durability and can be manufactured at scale for low cost. The high operating current densities and stable long-term operation are due to the 3D junction layer design, where there is a high interfacial area for water splitting or water generation reactions and where the interlocking fibers prevent delamination of the outer films. These new BPMs are ideal candidate materials for both existing water-splitting electrodialysis separations and new electrochemical processes, such as large-scale direct air capture of CO 2 , reactors for CO 2 reduction, self-hydrating fuel cells, and redox flow batteries.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

MFRED, 10 second interval real and reactive power for groups of 390 US apartments of varying size and vintage

Abstract Building electricity is a major component of global energy use and its environmental impacts. Detailed data on residential electricity use have many interrelated research applications, from energy conservation to non-intrusive load monitoring, energy storage, integration of renewables, and electric vs. fossil-based heating. The dataset presented here, Multifamily Residential Electricity Dataset (MFRED), contains the electricity use of 390 apartments, ranging from studios to four-bedroom units. All apartments are located in the Northeastern United States (IECC-climate-zone 4 A), but differ in their heating/cooling system and construction year (early to late 20 th century). To adhere to privacy guidelines, data were averaged across 15 apartments each, based on annual electricity use. MFRED includes real and reactive power, at 10-second resolution, for January to December 2019 (246 million data points). The annual average real power per apartment is 343 W (3.27 W/m 2 of floor area), with strong variation between seasons and apartment size. Considering its large number of apartments, high time resolution, real and reactive power, and 12-month duration, MFRED is currently unique for the multifamily-sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-track reconstruction algorithm in the Mu2e experiment

The Mu2e experiment, under construction at Fermilab, will search for the neutrino-less coherent $\mu^-N\rightarrow e^-N$ conversion in the field of a $^{27}$Al nucleus. Such a process violates lepton flavor conservation. About $60\%$ of muons stopped by an $^{27}$Al nucleus will undergo nuclear capture, while about $40\%$ will decay in orbit. To quantify the conversion probability, we define $R_{\mu e}$, which is given by the ratio between the $\mu^-\rightarrow e^-$ conversion rate and the nuclear capture rate [1]: \begin{equation} R_{\mu e}= \frac{\Gamma\left(\mu^- + N\left(Z,A\right)\rightarrow e^- + N\left(Z,A\right)\right)}{\Gamma\left(\mu^- + N\left(Z,A\right)\rightarrow \nu^-_\mu + N\left(Z-1,A\right)\right)}\,. \end{equation} The upper limit on $R_{\mu e}$ is $7\cdot 10^{-13}$ at $90\%$ CL, set by the SINDRUM II experiment~\cite{SINDRUM II:limit}. The goal of the Mu2e experiment is to reach a sensitivity on $R_{\mu e}$ of $8\cdot 10^{-17}$ at $90\%$ CL. This represents a four-order of magnitude improvement over the current experimental limit. Mu2e will take its first data in 2027. The signature for the muon conversion is a monochromatic electron of $104.97$~\si{\mega\eV}/c, an energy slightly below the muon rest mass. While the main experiment goal is to reconstruct the conversion electron, i.e., an event with a single track, there are motivations to develop an efficient tracking algorithm for reconstructing more simultaneous tracks. This could better constrain the background generated by $p\bar{p}$-annihilation in the Al target and to search for other Beyond the Standard Model processes. In this paper, we present an algorithm designed to reconstruct multi-particle events.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Carbon footprint prediction considering the evolution of alternative fuels and cargo: A case study of Yangtze river ships

For reducing carbon emissions in the shipping sector, application of alternative low-carbon and zero-carbon fuels is the consensus. However, requirements of economic development cannot be ignored while focusing on emission reduction. Cargo development is an important prerequisite. Considering the cargo growth as a novelty, a method to calculate the annual carbon emissions of different alternative fuel-powered ships in different cargo growth prospects and power scenarios is proposed. With respect to the time dimension, the relationship between alternative fuels, cargo, and carbon reduction is revealed. The Yangtze River bulk carrier case was studied and the life cycle carbon emission analysis of diesel, LNG hybrid, LNG, hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia were carried out. The annual carbon curves of the high, steady, and low cargo growth prospects were obtained for different scenarios of the power system structure. The results show that LNG hybrid, LNG and methanol fuels are currently the suitable choices. Their life cycle carbon emissions were reduced by 31.5–38.1% compared with those of diesel power. The carbon emissions of green hydrogen and green ammonia were reduced by 78.8% and 91.3%, respectively, compared with those of hydrogen and ammonia. The carbon reduction results of green fuels in their initial application were explored which are at 0.6–10.8%. In addition, there is a balanced annual growth rate, whose annual carbon curve will be steady under its corresponding scenario of power system structure, which could help the ship owners plan their future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Affordable and Accessible Solar for All: Barriers, Solutions, and On-Site Adoption Potential

Solar energy technologies can be used as part of a suite of tools to reduce the energy burden of low-income customers, but to date, low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers have not adopted solar at the same rate as other income groups. This paper summarizes the barriers of LMI solar adoption related to finance and funding, community engagement, site suitability, policy and regulatory, and resilience and recovery and discusses existing and potential future solutions to address these barriers. In addition, we model future LMI on-site solar adoption, using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) dGen model. We model future scenarios assuming no changes in the current LMI solar policy and program environment, and we add two incentives to low-income households for adopting solar: a $\$$3,000 incentive and a full incentive (i.e., the full cost of a PV system). While we model a financial incentive, this dollar reduction in cost could also come from other efforts, for example, reductions in solar soft costs. We find that by 2050, 48-49% of LMI households adopt solar, resulting in $\$$69- $\$$101 billion in first year utility bill savings to these consumers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Preliminary Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of the UTA–2 Subcritical Linear Accelerator–Driven System

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s mission includes establishing a reliable supply of 99 Mo without highly enriched uranium. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) supports this objective through collaborative research and development with industrial partners. Niowave Inc., a current partner, is currently designing a subcritical linear accelerator-driven system (ADS) and preparing for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s licensing process. Niowave’s system has the potential to efficiently supply medical radioisotopes. The technology includes a superconducting electron accelerator and a pile of both natural and low-enriched uranium (LEU) targets. The process fissions uranium and many valuable isotopes can then be extracted from the targets. Niowave is currently iterating through conceptual and detailed design processes for several system sizes. This report discusses UTA–2, which is at the demonstration stage. UTA–2 will validate numerical modeling results with experimental measurements before progressing to the detailed design of UTA–3, the commercial-sized ADS. The thermal-hydraulic behavior of the UTA–2 core design was numerically investigated using STAR-CCM+, as described in this report. STAR-CCM+, a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software that was commercially developed by Siemens, has an extensive user base and a set of validation studies. It is also compliant with the American Society of Mechanical Engineers’ Nuclear Quality Assurance 1 standard. Three cases are investigated in this report. Case 1 quantified the temperature field within the UTA–2 assembly and water tank using only conduction as the method of thermal energy transport. This simplified approach was overly conservative and yielded wetted cladding temperatures above the coolant saturation temperature. In this case, the maximum temperature of the wetted cladding surface of the highest power rod exceeded the saturation temperature of water by 63.8°C. Because of the overly conservative approach taken in Case 1 and its negative subcooled margin, buoyancy-driven natural circulation flow physics were implemented in Case 2. Adding coolant motion significantly distributed the thermal energy of the system through convective heat transfer. This relatively small amount of convective heat transfer significantly reduced system temperatures and increased the subcooled margin from –63.8 to 61.3°C. This margin confirmed that no boiling was expected during normal operation of UTA–2 at 230 W. Case 3 had no additional physics models but considered an overpower event during which the power of each LEU and natural uranium rod was at its respective peak values. This resulted in a study with the total assembly power equal to 176% of the nominal power of 230 W considered in Cases 1 and 2. The resulting natural circulation flows were slightly enhanced. The subcooled margin decreased slightly to 46.3°C, which is still a significant margin to local boiling of the water within the tank. This margin confirmed that no boiling was expected during an abnormal operation of UTA–2 at 406 W.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

O-GlcNAc transferase regulates collagen deposition and fibrosis resolution in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic pulmonary disease that is characterized by an excessive accumulation of extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins (e.g. collagens) in the parenchyma, which ultimately leads to respiratory failure and death. While current therapies exist to slow the progression, no therapies are available to resolve fibrosis. We characterized the O-linked N-Acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc) transferase (OGT)/O-GlcNAc axis in IPF using single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) data and human lung sections and isolated fibroblasts from IPF and non-IPF donors. The underlying mechanism(s) of IPF were further investigated using multiple experimental models to modulate collagen expression and accumulation by genetically and pharmacologically targeting OGT. Furthermore, we hone in on the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β) effector molecule, Smad3, by co-expressing it with OGT to determine if it is modified and its subsequent effect on Smad3 activation. We found that OGT and O-GlcNAc levels are upregulated in patients with IPF compared to non-IPF. We report that the OGT regulates collagen deposition and fibrosis resolution, which is an evolutionarily conserved process demonstrated across multiple species. Co-expression of OGT and Smad3 showed that Smad3 is O-GlcNAc modified. Blocking OGT activity resulted in decreased phosphorylation at Ser-423/425 of Smad3 attenuating the effects of TGF-β1 induced collagen expression/deposition. OGT inhibition or knockdown successfully blocked and reversed collagen expression and accumulation, respectively. Smad3 is discovered to be a substrate of OGT and its O-GlcNAc modification(s) directly affects its phosphorylation state. These data identify OGT as a potential target in pulmonary fibrosis resolution, as well as other diseases that might have aberrant ECM/collagen accumulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Occupant-Centric key performance indicators to inform building design and operations

Building performance indicators are widely used to guide building design and track and benchmark operational performance. Traditional building performance indicators mostly focus on the energy efficiency perspective. As occupants are the primary building service recipients in residential and most commercial buildings, their comfort and wellbeing are crucial. As such, this study first identified significant attributes of occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) and analyzed the diverse factors that should be considered in formulating an occupant-centric KPI. Then a suite of occupant-centric KPIs were synthesized from the review and enhancement of existing occupant-related performance metrics. The proposed occupant KPIs represent the occupant lens on three integrative aspects of building performance: resource use (including energy and water), indoor environmental quality, and human–building interactions. A simulation-based case study was conducted to demonstrate how occupant-centric KPIs can be used to quantify the impacts of building operation changes from the occupants’ point of view. Highlights: Occupant-centric metrics are currently ad hoc and limited, yet crucial to inform building design and operations. Literature was reviewed to reveal the state-of-the-art and gaps of occupant-centric metrics. A suite of occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) covering five groups of building services were synthesized. Proposed occupant KPIs represent three aspects of performance: resource use and demand, occupant comfort and health, and human–building interactions. A case study using whole building simulation was conducted to demonstrate the use of occupant-centric KPIs in evaluating building operations during a power outage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Instrumentation for Assessing DC Electrical Distribution Systems in Buildings

Direct current (DC) distribution systems is emerging as a favorable option over alternating current in buildings due to its energy and non-energy benefits (e.g., efficiency, resilience, safety). However, limited guidelines exist to evaluate the DC electrical distribution infrastructure. This paper aims to fill that gap by detailing our experience with metering a building-level electrical DC distribution system. Our case study is a DC microgrid at the Direct Energy Partners Research & Development facility located in Charlotte, North Carolina. This paper presents our approach, technical challenges, and lessons learned with DC metering and instrumentation.

buildings↗