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NASA NTRS2012

An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

Lupo, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2018

SAPS-Associated Explosive Brightening on the Duskside: A New Type of Onset- Like Disturbance

Quasi-periodic energetic particle injections have been observed at geosynchronous orbit on the dusk-side during a steady magnetospheric convection event. We examine high-resolution auroral imager data and ground magnetometer data associated with the first of these injections and conclude that it was not associated with classical sub-storm signatures. It is proposed that these injections are caused by the explosive nonlinear growth of a shear flow-ballooning instability in the region where sub-auroral polarization streams (SAPS) also occur. It is suggested that interchange will occur preferentially in the low-conductivity SAPS region since the magnetic Richardson number is lowest there and the "line-tying" effect will also be least stabilizing there. We propose that the observed particle injection signatures and auroral morphology constitute a new type of SAPS-associated explosive "onset-like" disturbance that can occur during intervals of strong convection.

Henderson, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Diagnosis of vertical motions from VAS retrievals during a convective outbreak

GOES-VAS satellite retrievals are used to investigate an intense convective outbreak over the Mississippi River Valley on 21-22 July 1982. The primary goals are to assess the strengths and weaknesses of three methods for computing vertical motion using satellite retrievals and to determine the effects of short interval observations on the calculations. Then, the vertical motions are incorporated with thermodynamic parameters to assess the usefulness of VAS data in delineating factors leading to storm formation. Results indicate that the quasi-geotrophic omega equation provided patterns and magnitudes most consistent with observed weather events and the 12 h radiosonde-derived motions. The vorticity method generally produced reasonable patterns, especially over the convective outbreak, although magnitudes were large due to its time derivative.

Funk, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Analyzing Electric Field Morphology Through Data-Model Comparisons of the GEM IM/S Assessment Challenge Events

The storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field morphology and dynamics are assessed by comparing numerical modeling results of the plasmasphere and ring current with many in situ and remote sensing data sets. Two magnetic storms are analyzed, April 22,2001 and October 21-23,2001, which are the events selected for the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Inner Magnetosphere/Storms (IM/S) Assessment Challenge (IMSAC). The IMSAC seeks to quantify the accuracy of inner magnetospheric models as well as synthesize our understanding of this region. For each storm, the ring current-atmosphere interaction model (RAM) and the dynamic global core plasma model (DGCPM) were run together with various settings for the large-scale convection electric field and the nightside ionospheric conductance. DGCPM plasmaspheric parameters were compared with IMAGE-EUV plasmapause extractions and LANL-MPA plume locations and velocities. RAM parameters were compared with Dst*, LANL-MPA fluxes and moments, IMAGE-MENA images, and IMAGE-HENA images. Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons were made to determine the electric field morphology that allows the model results to best fit the plasma data at various times during these events. The simulations with self-consistent electric fields were, in general, better than those with prescribed field choices. This indicates that the time-dependent modulation of the inner magnetospheric electric fields by the nightside ionosphere is quite significant for accurate determination of these fields (and their effects). It was determined that a shielded Volland-Stern field description driven by the 3-hour Kp index yields accurate results much of the time, but can be quite inconsistent. The modified Mcllwain field description clearly lagged in overall accuracy compared to the other fields, but matched some data sets (like Dst*) quite well. The rankings between the simulations varied depending on the storm and the individual data sets, indicating that each field description did well for some place, time, and energy range during the events, as well as doing less well in other places, times, and energies. Several unresolved issues regarding the storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field are discussed.

Liemohn, Michael W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Plasmasphere dynamics in the duskside bulge region: A new look at old topic

Data acquired during several multiday periods in 1982 at ground stations Siple, Halley, and Kerguelen and on satellites Dynamics Explorer 1, International Sun Earth Explorer 1, and GEOS 2 have been used to investigate thermal plasma structure and dynamics in the duskside plasmasphere bulge region of the Earth. The distribution of thermal plasma in the dusk bulge sector is difficult to describe realistically, in part because of the time integral manner in which the thermal plasma distribution depends upon on the effects of bulk cross-B flow and interchange plasma flows along B. While relatively simple MHD models can be useful for qualitatively predicting certain effects of enhanced convection on a quiet plasmasphere, such as an initial sunward entrainment of the outer regions, they are of limited value in predicting the duskside thermal plasma structures that are observed. Furthermore, use of such models can be misleading if one fails to realize that they do not address the question of the formation of the steep plasmapause profile or provide for a possible role of instabilities or other irreversible processes in plasmapause formation. Our specific findings, which are based both upon the present case studies and upon earlier work, include the following: (1) during active periods the plasmasphere appears to become divided into two entities, a main plasmasphere and a duskside bulge region. (2) in the aftermath of an increase in convection activity, the main plasmasphere tends (from a statistical point of view) to become roughly circular in equatorial cross section, with only a slight bulge at dusk; (3) the abrupt westward edge of the duskside bulge observed from whistlers represents a state in the evolution of sunward extending streamers; (4) in the aftermath of a weak magnetic storm, 10 to 30% of the plasma 'removed' from the outer plasmasphere appears to remain in the afternoon-dusk sector beyond the main plasmasphere. (5) outlying dense plasma structures may circulate in the outer duskside magetosphere for many days following an increase in convection, unless there is extremely deep quieting; (6) a day-night plasmatrough boundary may be identified in equatorial satellite data; (7) factor-of-2-to-10 density irregularities appear near the plasmatrough from the ionosphere at L = 4.6, predominantly bidirectional field aligned and equatorially trapped light ion pitch angle distributions give away to a predominantly isotropic distribution (as seen by DE 1) when the plasma density reaches a level a factor of about 3 below the satured plasmasphere level; (9) some outlying dense plasma structures are effectively detached from the main plasmasphere, while others appear to be connected to that body.

Carpenter, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of Voyager 2 images of Jovian lightning

Magalhaes and Borucki (1991) reported that Voyager-2 images of Jupiter contained bright spots due to lightning activity that was confined to two narrow altitude bands centered at 49 deg N and 13.5 deg N latitude and to a single region near 60 deg N latitude. This paper describes the Voyager 2 imaging observations in detail and associates the positions of the lightning features in the images with particular cloud features. The energetics of the lightning storms on Jupiter is examined. It is found that the ratio of the energy dissipated by Jovian lightning to the thermal flux available to drive convection motions is about 3 decades larger than the terrestrial ratio.

Borucki, William J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Effect of Combined Spaceborne Microwave and Continuous Lightning Measurements on Precipitation Forecasts of the 1998 Ground-Hog Day Storm

We evaluated the impact of several newly available sources of meteorological data on mesoscale model forecasts of precipitation produced by the extra-tropical cyclone that struck Florida on February 2, 1998. Precipitation distributions of convective rainfall events were derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Multi-Channel Passive Microwave Sensor (TMI) microwave radiometric data by means of the Goddard PROFiling (GPROF) algorithm. Continuous lightning distributions were obtained from sferics measurements obtained from a network of VLF radio receivers. Histograms of coincident sferics frequency distributions were matched to those of precipitation to derive bogus convective rainfall rates from the continuously available sferics measurements. SSM/I and TMI microwave data were used to derive Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW) distributions. The TMI also provided sea surface temperatures (SSTS) of the Loop Current and Gulf Stream with improved structural detail. A series of experiments assimilated IPW and latent heating from the bogus convective rainfall for six-hours in the MM5 mesoscale forecast model to produce nine-hour forecasts of all rainfall as well as other weather parameters. Although continuously assimilating latent heating only slightly improved the surface pressure distribution forecast, it significantly improved the precipitation forecasts. Correctly locating convective rainfall was found critical for assimilating latent heating in the forecast model, but measurement of the rainfall intensity proved to be less important. The improved SSTs also had a positive impact on rainfall forecasts for this case. Assimilating bogus rainfall in the model produced nine-hour forecasts of radar reflectivity distributions that agreed well with coincident observations from the TRMM spaceborne precipitation radar, ground based radar and spaceborne microwave measurements.

Weinman, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.

Rosenfeld, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Long-Term GOES Satellite Overshooting Cloud Top and Anvil Cloud Climatology Over South America

The modern-era GOES satellite series began in 1994 with the GOES-8 satellite, and was augmented in 2018 with higher spatial resolution and more frequent imaging when GOES-16 became operational. GOES imagery has provided forecasters and researchers new perspectives into cloud top patterns associated with severe convection, and the ability to better forecast convection in regions without adequate ground-based weather radar coverage. While much attention has been given to convection over North America, convection over South America can be equally, if not more, intense and frequent. Recent studies have demonstrated that overshooting cloud tops (OT) and surrounding anvil clouds can be detected within infrared satellite imagery. Relative storm updraft intensity metrics such as the tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, the prominence of an OT relative to its surrounding anvil, and cloud top height can also be derived using automated methods combined with reanalysis data. These automated OT detection and intensity estimation methods have recently been applied to all GOES images collected over South America, in combination with the MERRA-2 reanalysis, from 1995 to 2022 at NASA Langley within a project supported by the NASA Applied Sciences Disasters program. Innovative aggregation methods have merged these products into daily, monthly, annual, and multi-annual composites, with hourly time bins, at ~4 km pixel spacing to enable researchers a new opportunity to study South American convective processes throughout the diurnal cycle. These products have recently become publicly available from NASA. This presentation will overview this new dataset, and novel insights into South American convection depicted by the data.

Kristopher Bedka↗

NASA NTRS2003

Archetypal TRMM Radar Profiles Identified Through Cluster Analysis

It is widely held that identifiable 'convective regimes' exist in nature, although precise definitions of these are elusive. Examples include land / Ocean distinctions, break / monsoon beahvior, seasonal differences in the Amazon (SON vs DJF), etc. These regimes are often described by differences in the realized local convective spectra, and measured by various metrics of convective intensity, depth, areal coverage and rainfall amount. Objective regime identification may be valuable in several ways: regimes may serve as natural 'branch points' in satellite retrieval algorithms or data assimilation efforts; one example might be objective identification of regions that 'should' share a similar 2-R relationship. Similarly, objectively defined regimes may provide guidance on optimal siting of ground validation efforts. Objectively defined regimes could also serve as natural (rather than arbitrary geographic) domain 'controls' in studies of convective response to environmental forcing. Quantification of convective vertical structure has traditionally involved parametric study of prescribed quantities thought to be important to convective dynamics: maximum radar reflectivity, cloud top height, 30-35 dBZ echo top height, rain rate, etc. Individually, these parameters are somewhat deficient as their interpretation is often nonunique (the same metric value may signify different physics in different storm realizations). Individual metrics also fail to capture the coherence and interrelationships between vertical levels available in full 3-D radar datasets. An alternative approach is discovery of natural partitions of vertical structure in a globally representative dataset, or 'archetypal' reflectivity profiles. In this study, this is accomplished through cluster analysis of a very large sample (0[107) of TRMM-PR reflectivity columns. Once achieved, the rainconditional and unconditional 'mix' of archetypal profile types in a given location and/or season provides a description of the local convective spectrum which retains vertical structure information. A further cluster analysis of these 'mixes' can identify recurrent convective spectra. These are a first step towards objective identification of convective regimes, and towards answering the question: 'What are the most convectively similar locations in the world?'

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spontaneous Cyclogenesis without Radiative and Surface-Flux Feedbacks

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most intense and feared storms in the world. What physical processes lead to cyclogenesis remains the most mysterious aspect of TC physics. Here, we study spontaneous TC genesis in rotating radiative–convective equilibrium using cloud-resolving simulations over an f plane with constant sea surface temperature. Previous studies proposed that spontaneous TC genesis requires either radiative or surface-flux feedbacks. To test this hypothesis, we perform mechanism-denial experiments, in which we switch off both feedback processes in numerical simulations. We find that TCs can self-emerge even without radiative and surface-flux feedbacks. Although these feedbacks accelerate the genesis and impact the size of the TCs, TCs in the experiments without them can reach similar intensities as those in the control experiment. We show that TC genesis is associated with an increase in the available potential energy (APE) and that convective heating dominates the APE production. Overall, our result suggests that spontaneous TC genesis may result from a cooperative interaction between convection and circulation and that radiative and surface-flux feedbacks accelerate the process. Furthermore, we find that increasing the planetary rotation favors spontaneous TC genesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Numerical simulation of frontogenesis in a moist atmosphere

This paper describes the effects of condensation and evaporation on mesoscale frontal circulations in a two-dimensional numerical model. Utilizing an explicit scheme for the prediction of water vapor, cloud water and rainwater, the model is used to investigate the interactions between convection and the larger-scale environment. The model results are qualitatively compared with results of theoretical and observational studies, including those from the recent Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiment-Atmospheric Variability Experiment (SESAME-AVE). Three major differences are observed in a comparison of the moist and dry simulations: (1) The speed of the upper- and lower-level jets was significantly higher in the moist case, (2) The intensity of the ageostrophic circulations in the moist simulation was much stronger, (3) The vertical velocity field in the moist case was characterized by a banded structure not present in the dry case.

Hsie, E.-Y.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2002

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geoeffectiveness (D (sub st) and K (sub p)) of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2009 and Implications for Storm Forecasting

We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including the NOAA "G" storm scale, based on maximum values of the southward magnetic field component (Bs), the solar wind speed (V), and the y component (Ey) of the solar wind convective electric field E = -V x B, in the ICME or sheath ahead of the ICME. Consistent with previous studies, the geoeffectiveness of an ICME is correlated with Bs or Ey approx.= VBs in the ICME or sheath, indicating that observations from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth are likely to provide the most reliable forecasts of the activity associated with an approaching ICME. There is also a general increase in geoeffectiveness with ICME speed, though the overall event-to-event correlation is weaker than for Bs and Ey. Nevertheless, using these results, we suggest that the speed of an ICME approaching the Earth inferred, for example, from routine remote sensing by coronagraphs on spacecraft well separated from the Earth or by all-sky imagers, could be used to estimate the likely geoeffectiveness of the ICME (our "comprehensive" ICME database provides a proxy for ICMEs identified in this way) with a longer lead time than may be possible using an upstream monitor

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

In recent years, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and their partners have developed and demonstrated space-based lightning observations as an effective remote sensing tool for Earth science research and applications. The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) continues to provide global observations of total lightning after 17 years on-orbit. In April 2013, a space-qualified LIS built as the flight spare for TRMM, was selected for flight as a science mission on the International Space Station. The ISS LIS (or I-LIS as Hugh Christian prefers) will be flown as a hosted payload on the Department of Defense Space Test Program (STP) H5 mission, which has a January 2016 baseline launch date aboard a SpaceX launch vehicle for a 2-4 year or longer mission. The LIS measures the amount, rate, and radiant energy of global lightning. More specifically, it measures lightning during both day and night, with storm scale resolution, millisecond timing, and high, uniform detection efficiency, without any land-ocean bias. Lightning is a direct and most impressive response to intense atmospheric convection. It has been found that the characteristics of lightning that LIS measures can be quantitatively coupled to both thunderstorm and other geophysical processes. Therefore, the ISS LIS lightning observations will provide important gap-filling inputs to pressing Earth system science issues across a broad range of disciplines, including weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and lightning physics. A unique contribution from the ISS platform will be the availability of real-time lightning, especially valuable for operational applications over data sparse regions such as the oceans. The ISS platform will also uniquely enable LIS to provide simultaneous and complementary observations with other payloads such as the European Space Agency's Atmosphere-Space Interaction Monitor (ASIM) that will be exploring the connection between thunderstorms and lightning with terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs). Another important function of the ISS LIS will be to provide cross-sensor calibration/validation with a number of other payloads, including the TRMM LIS and the next generation geostationary lightning mappers (e.g., GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper and Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager). This inter-calibration will improve the long term climate monitoring provided by all these systems. Finally, the ISS LIS will extend the time-series climate record of LIS lightning observations and expand the latitudinal coverage of LIS lightning to the climate significant upper middle-latitudes.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

Blakeslee, R. J.↗