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Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Apollo galactic X-ray astronomy observations

The galactic X-ray observations are a detailed study of the temporal behavior of pulsating X-ray sources. NASA's first X-ray astronomy satellite Uhuru (Explorer 42) has recently discovered fast time variability of pulsations in the output from several sources. The variability occurs on a time scale of minutes, seconds, or less, implying that the emitting regions are very small in size, much smaller than the sun, although they are emitting about a thousand times more power. Fast time variability may provide the clue that is needed to understand the mechanisms which drive pulsating sources. The Apollo observations record the emission from several objects continuously for a period of about an hour. The spacecraft can be pointed at the source for the entire time. On the other hand, Uhuru can observe only for about a minute or two per sighting. Consequently, Apollo has the capability for determining whether periodicities exist in the 10-1000 second range.

Adler, I.↗

Energy deposition in a gaseous mixture

Existing models in planetary aeronomy involve a variety of possible gaseous mixtures subjected to charged particle bombardment. In the present paper, a phenomenological approach to electron degradation in such mixtures is proposed to facilitate analysis of such problems. Existing parameterized yield spectra for a variety of gases, computed by a discrete energy bin method, are used as a basis for constructing a parameterized composite yield spectrum for an arbitrary mixture. The approach proposed is an improvement over the continuous slow-down approximation in that discreteness is taken into account phenomenologically. The advantages are in the ease of application to aeronomical problems involving variable mixtures.

Peterson, L. R.↗

Use of change detection in assessing development plans - A Philippine example

An aircraft/Landsat change-detection study conducted 1948-1972 on Marinduque Province, Republic of the Philippines, is discussed, and a procedure using both remote sensing and information systems for collection, spatial analysis, and display of periodic data is described. Each of the 4,008 25-hectare cells representing Marinduque were observed, and changes in and between variables were measured and tested using nonparametric statistics to determine the effect of specific land cover changes. Procedures using Landsat data to obtain a more continuous updating of the data base are considered. The system permits storage and comparison of historical and current data.

Coiner, J. C.↗

Digital simulation of dynamic processes in radiometer systems

The development and application of several computer programs for simulating different classes of microwave radiometers are described. The programs are dynamic in nature, and they may be used to determine the instantaneous behavior of system variables as a function of time. Some of the programs employ random variable models in the simulations so that the statistical nature of the results may be investigated. The programs have been developed to utilize either the Continuous System Modeling Program or the Advanced Continuous System Language. The validity of most of the programs was investigated using statistical tests, and the results show excellent correlation with theoretical predictions. The programs are currently being used in the investigation of new design techniques for microwave radiometers.

Stanley, W. D.↗

Experimental performance of a microwave cavity plasma disk ion source

The detailed description and performance characteristics of a microwave ion source are presented. This ion source utilizes an internally tuned, single-mode (or selective multimode) cylindrical cavity applicator to focus and match microwave energy into a disk-shaped discharge zone. The combination of mode focus control and variable, internal cavity matching allows the efficient operation and beam extraction over a wide range of pressures, powers and gaseous inputs. Experimental measurements of ion beam current versus accelerating voltage and input microwave power in xenon and oxygen gas are presented. Ion source specific energy and mass utilization versus experimental variables are also determined. The experimental performance demonstrates the ability of this ion source to extract an ion beam with a well matched, stable, and continuous operation over a wide range of input gases, low pressures, and over input gas flow rates in excess of 100 to a few sccm. Double Langmuir probe measurements in xenon gas indicate high degrees of ionization, and electron and ion concentrations in excess of 100 critical densities in the microwave discharge zone. This ion source has many potential uses such as spacecraft electric propulsion, material ion beam processing, and neutral beam ion sources.

Root, J.↗

Unsteady solution of incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

The numerical scheme used by the present time-accurate FEM numerical method for incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, using primitive variables as the unknowns, is a Crank-Nicholson implicit treatment of all equation terms with central differencing for space derivatives. The introduction of a continuous auxilliary system in pseudo-time, with artificial compressibility, yields the incompressible solution at the advanced time level; time-accurate solutions are thereby obtained for two-dimensional fluid flows in a square cavity, in the cases of both an impulsively starting lid and an oscillating lid.

Soh, W. Y.↗

A ten-year monthly data set of outgoing longwave radiation from Nimbus-6 and Nimbus-7 satellites

Monthly mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements in the form of global contour maps and coefficients of spherical-harmonic functions for each month of the 10-year period, July 1975 through October 1985, have recently been completed. One data set contains three years (July 1975 to June 1978) of 'continuous' data from the wide field-of-view sensor of the Earth Radiation Budget experiment (ERB) aboard the Nimbus-6 satellite. The other data set contains seven years (November 1978 to October 1985) of 'continuous' data from the ERB experiment aboard the Nimbus-7 satellite. The OLR broadband time series could be used, for example, to study the interannual variability of OLR. An example is given of two El Ninos that occurred in the 10-year timeframe.

Bess, T. Dale↗

Discrete event simulation tool for analysis of qualitative models of continuous processing systems

An artificial intelligence design and qualitative modeling tool is disclosed for creating computer models and simulating continuous activities, functions, and/or behavior using developed discrete event techniques. Conveniently, the tool is organized in four modules: library design module, model construction module, simulation module, and experimentation and analysis. The library design module supports the building of library knowledge including component classes and elements pertinent to a particular domain of continuous activities, functions, and behavior being modeled. The continuous behavior is defined discretely with respect to invocation statements, effect statements, and time delays. The functionality of the components is defined in terms of variable cluster instances, independent processes, and modes, further defined in terms of mode transition processes and mode dependent processes. Model construction utilizes the hierarchy of libraries and connects them with appropriate relations. The simulation executes a specialized initialization routine and executes events in a manner that includes selective inherency of characteristics through a time and event schema until the event queue in the simulator is emptied. The experimentation and analysis module supports analysis through the generation of appropriate log files and graphics developments and includes the ability of log file comparisons.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Interannual variability of the spatial distribution of sea ice in the north polar region

The interannual variability of the monthly average spatial distributions of northern hemisphere sea ice was examined for the 1973-1987 period of the electrically scanning microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 5 satellite and the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 7 satellite passive microwave data record. Strong seasonal and spatial contrasts in the amount of interannual variability are mapped and identified. The maps and analyses provide a baseline against which future northern hemisphere sea ice distributions can be compared in the continuing attempt to analyze global climate and to determine whether or not significant climate change is occurring.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

Life extending control: An interdisciplinary engineering thrust

The concept of Life Extending Control (LEC) is introduced. Possible extensions to the cyclic damage prediction approach are presented based on the identification of a model from elementary forms. Several candidate elementary forms are presented. These extensions will result in a continuous or differential form of the damage prediction model. Two possible approaches to the LEC based on the existing cyclic damage prediction method, the measured variables LEC and the estimated variables LEC, are defined. Here, damage estimates or measurements would be used directly in the LEC. A simple hydraulic actuator driven position control system example is used to illustrate the main ideas behind LEC. Results from a simple hydraulic actuator example demonstrate that overall system performance (dynamic plus life) can be maximized by accounting for component damage in the control design.

Lorenzo, Carl F.↗

NOAA-11 SBUV/2 measurements of solar UV variations

The SBUV/2 instrument onboard the NOAA-11 satellite made daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the wavelength region 160405 nm at 1.1 nm resolution between January 1989 and October 1994. These observations continued the uninterrupted series of solar measurements begun by the Nimbus-7 SBUV in 1978 and continued by NOAA-9 SBUV/2. While the measurements made by the SBUV-series instruments furnish an excellent data base for studies of solar UV variability, these instruments do not have an internal mew to evaluate and correct for long-term instrument sensitivity degradation, needed to evaluate solar cycle timescale irradiance change. During yearly Shuttle flights the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) also performs solar spectral irradiance measurements in the wavelength region 200 to 400 nm with an instrument that is calibrated preflight, inflight, and postflight. Comparisons between the simultaneous NOAA-11 SBUV/2 and SSBUV solar measurements are used to identify and correct long term sensitivity changes in the satellite instrument. The NOAA-11 data will then be used to evaluate long-term solar change. We present a progress report on the above process. At this preliminary stage uncertainties in the calibration transfer between SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 are too large to accurately evaluate long-term solar change near the A1 edge, but solar rotational activity variations can be evaluated. We find that rotational activity declined from roughly 6% peak-to-peak (p-p) near the maximum of solar cycle 22 in 1989-1991 to approximately 3% p-p in mid 1992 and 2% p-p by mid 1994. Emphasizing rotational variations, comparisons between the 200 nm data and the NOAA-11 Mg II proxy index are presented.

Cebula, R. P.↗

PCA/HEXTE Observations of M82 and NGC253

The nearby starburst galaxies M82 & NGC 253 were observed by the RXTE satellite during the period February - November 1997. Data reduction and analysis began in summer 1998, and continued through March 1999. The spectral analysis indicates that the main emission in these galaxies is from hot gas. We find a considerable degree of variability in the emission from M82, possibly due to M81 (a known AGN) in the FOV. The main spectral parameters were determined for both sources. The results of the analysis were reported in the March 1999 meeting of the AAS. Summary of the data analysis, theoretical modeling, and interpretation will be presented in a paper which is currently being prepared for publication in the Astrophysical Journal.

Rephaeli, Yoel↗

MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Bias Adjustment Using Machine Learning Algorithms

To monitor the earth atmosphere and its surface changes, satellite based instruments collect continuous data. While some of the data is directly used, some others such as aerosol properties are indirectly retrieved from the observation data. While retrieved variables (RV) form very powerful products, they don't come without obstacles. Different satellite viewing geometries, calibration issues, dynamically changing atmospheric and earth surface conditions, together with complex interactions between observed entities and their environment affect them greatly. This results in random and systematic errors in the final products.

Albayrak, Arif↗

Discovery of a Similar to 5 Day Characteristic Timescale in the Kepler Power Spectrum of Zw 229-15

We present time series analyses of the full Kepler dataset of Zw 229− 15. This Kepler light curve- with a baseline greater than three years, composed of virtually continuous, evenly sampled 30-minute measurements - is unprecedented in its quality and precision. We utilize two methods of power spectral analysis to investigate the optical variability and search for evidence of a bend frequency associated with a characteristic optical variability timescale. Each method yields similar results. The first interpolates across data gaps to use the standard Fourier periodogram. The second, using the CARMA-based time-domain modeling technique of Kelly et al., does not need evenly-sampled data. Both methods find excess power at high frequencies that may be due to Kepler instrumental effects. More importantly both also show strong bends (delta alpha is approx. 2) at timescales of approx. 5 days, a feature similar to those seen in the X-ray PSDs of AGN but never before in the optical. This observed approx. 5 day timescale may be associated with one of several physical processes potentially responsible for the variability. A plausible association could be made with light -crossing, dynamical or thermal timescales, depending on the assumed value of the accretion disk size and on unobserved disk parameters such as alpha and H¬R. This timescale is not consistent with the viscous timescale, which would be years in a approx. 10(exp7) solar mass AGN such as Zw 229− 15. However there must be a second bend on long (& 1 year) timescales, and that feature could be associated with the viscous timescale.

timescale↗

SpaRibs Geometry Parameterization for Wings with Multiple Sections using Single Design

The SpaRibs topology of an aircraft wing has a significant effect on its structural behavior and stability as well as the flutter performance. The development of additive manufacturing techniques like Electron Beam Free Form Fabrication (EBF3) has made it feasible to manufacture aircraft wings with curvilinear spars, ribs (SpaRibs) and stiffeners. In this article a new global-local optimization framework for wing with multiple sections using curvilinear SpaRibs is described. A single design space is used to parameterize the SpaRibs geometry. This method has been implemented using MSC-PATRAN to create a broad range of SpaRibs topologies using limited number of parameters. It ensures C0 and C1 continuities in SpaRibs geometry at the junction of two wing sections with airfoil thickness gradient discontinuity as well as mesh continuity between all structural components. This method is advantageous in complex multi-disciplinary optimization due to its potential to reduce the number of design variables. For the global-local optimization the local panels are generated by an algorithm which is totally based on a set algebra on the connectivity matrix data. The great advantage of this method is that it is completely independent of the coordinates of the nodes of the finite element model. It is also independent of the order in which the elements are distributed in the FEM. The code is verified by optimizing of the CRM Baseline model at trim condition at Mach number equal to 0.85 for five different angle of attack (-2deg, 0deg,2deg,4deg and 6deg). The final weight of the wing is 19,090.61 lb. This value is comparable to that obtained by Qiang et al. 6 (19,269 lb).

wing sections↗

Assessing Sensitivity of MERRA-2 to AMSU-A in the Upper Stratosphere

Microwavetemperaturesounders provide key observationsin data assimilation, both in the 9current and historical global observing systems, as they provide the largest amount of horizontal and vertical temperature information due to their insensitivity to clouds. In the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2),microwave sounder radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A)are assimilated beginning with NOAA-15and continuing through the current period. The time series of observation minus background statistics forAMSU-A channels sensitive to upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere show variabilities due to changes in AMSU-A constellation in the early AMSU-A period.Noted discrepancies are seen at the onset and exit of AMSU-A observations on the NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, and NASA EOS Aqua satellites.This effort characterizesthesensitivity, both in terms of the observations and the MERRA-2 analysis. Furthermore, it exploresthe use of reprocessed and inter-calibrated datasets to evaluatewhether these homogenized observations can reduce the disparity due to change in instrumental biases against the model background. The results indicate that the AMSU-A radiances used in MERRA-2 are the fundamental cause of this inter-platform sensitivitywhich can be mitigated by using reprocessed data.The results explore the importance of the reprocessing of the AMSU-A radiances as well as their inter-calibration.

MERRA-2↗