Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1976

One-dimensional numerical study of charged particle trajectories in turbulent electrostatic wave fields

The paper describes a numerical simulation of electron trajectories in weak random electric fields under conditions that are approximately true for Langmuir waves whose wavelength is much longer than the Debye length. Two types of trajectory calculations were made: (1) the initial particle velocity was made equal to the mean phase velocity of the waves, or (2) it was equal to 0.7419 times the mean velocity of the waves, so that the initial velocity differed substantially from all phase velocities of the wave spectrum. When the autocorrelation time is much greater than the trapping time, the particle motion can change virtually instantaneously from one of three states - high-velocity, low-velocity, or trapped state - to another. The probability of instantaneous transition from a high- or low-velocity state becomes small when the difference between the particle velocity and the mean phase velocity of the waves becomes high in comparison to the trapping velocity. Diffusive motion becomes negligible under these conditions also.

Graham, K. N.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Enclosure fire hazard analysis using relative energy release criteria

A method for predicting the probable course of fire development in an enclosure is presented. This fire modeling approach uses a graphic plot of five fire development constraints, the relative energy release criteria (RERC), to bound the heat release rates in an enclosure as a function of time. The five RERC are flame spread rate, fuel surface area, ventilation, enclosure volume, and total fuel load. They may be calculated versus time based on the specified or empirical conditions describing the specific enclosure, the fuel type and load, and the ventilation. The calculation of these five criteria, using the common basis of energy release rates versus time, provides a unifying framework for the utilization of available experimental data from all phases of fire development. The plot of these criteria reveals the probable fire development envelope and indicates which fire constraint will be controlling during a criteria time period. Examples of RERC application to fire characterization and control and to hazard analysis are presented along with recommendations for the further development of the concept.

Coulbert, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mars brine formation experiment

Evaporites, particularly carbonates, nitrates, and sulfates, may be major sinks of volatiles scavenged from the martian atmosphere. Mars is thought to have once had a denser, warmer atmosphere that permitted the presence of liquid surface water. The conversion of atmospheric CO2 into carbonate is hypothesized to have degraded the martian climate to its present state of a generally subfreezing, desiccated desert. The rate for such a conversion under martian conditions is poorly known, so the time scale of climate degradation by this process cannot be easily evaluated. If some models are correct, carbonate formation may have been fast at geological time scales. The experiments of Booth and Kieffer also imply fast (10(exp 6) - 10(exp 7) yr) removal of the missing CO2 inventory, estimated to be 1 - 5 bar, by means of carbonate formation. The timing of formation of many of the fluvial features observed on Mars is, in large part, dependent on when and how fast the atmosphere changed. A knowledge of the rate at which carbonates and nitrates formed is also essential for assessing the probability that life, or its chemical precursors, could have developed on Mars. No previous experiments have quantitatively evaluated the rate of solution for a suite of mobile anions and cations from unaltered minerals and atmospheric gases into liquid water under Mars-like conditions. Such experiments are the focus of this task.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Generating Flood Probability Map Based on Combined Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar and Optical Imagery

Despite a lot of efforts to respond flood hazards with remote sensing data, it is still difficult to generate an accurate flood map using solely optical or radar imagery. While optical data is relatively high-resolution and does not suffer from speckle noise compared to radar data, it is very likely to be impacted by cloud and shadow. On the other hand, radar imagery can be used in all weather conditions due to its capability of penetrating clouds. Although a significant improvement of flood monitoring capability is achieved by using radar data, it is still challenging to map urban floods because of strong backscattering by man-made structures. Therefore, complementary use of optical and radar imagery in flood response is required, particularly in urban areas. In this study, we have adopted the Bayesian Joint Probability function to combine two different flood products generated from SAR and optical imagery. Flood detection with SAR data relies on the difference of backscatter signals between standing water and rougher land surface, while a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) approach is used for optical data. Specifically, Planet Dove data with its 3m spatial resolution is used with higher weight values to detect flood extent in urban areas.

floods↗
NASA NTRS1959

Effects of Nose Radius and Extreme Cooling on Boundary-Layer Transition for Three Smooth 15°-Cone-Cylinders in Free Flight at Mach Numbers to 8.50

Three highly polished 15°- included- angle cone- cylinders with hemispherical tips of several diameters ( 2, 3, and 4 in.) have been flown in order to obtain boundary- layer transition data at very low wall to local stream temperature ratios, and heat- transfer data. All surfaces had a 2-microinch average roughness height. Laminar flow existed over the entire hemispherical nose of the 2- and 3-inch-tip- diameter models throughout the complete flight history. Extreme cooling to wall to local stream temperature ratios at the sonic point as low as 0.20 did not cause transition on the nose for diameters as large as 3 inches. However, extreme cooling did cause early transition on the 4-inch model where it appears probable that transition occurred forward of the 45° station at a wall to local stream temperature ratio of about 0.26. Variations in tip diameter influenced transition downstream of the nose under conditions of extreme cooling. The 2-inch- tip model was laminar at all cone- cylinder stations at temperature ratios as low as 0.32 whereas the 3- and 4-inch-tip models were turbulent at the same local flow conditions but at higher wall to local temperature ratios. Transition on the cone and cylinder of the 3- and 4-inch- tip bodies appeared to be sensitive to local Mach number, and occurred at higher local temperature ratios when values of local Mach number were higher. Increasing the nose diameter from 2 to 3 inches significantly changed the local flow conditions for which laminar flow existed on the cone- cylinder afterbody. However, a further increase in tip size t o a 4-inch diameter had no discernable effect on the local flow conditions at transition. The transition results of the 3- and 4-inch-nose-diameter smooth bodies are similar to those observed on a 7/8-inch-nose-diameter body with roughened surfaces. Turbulent boundary layers resulted in both cases at very low wall to local stream temperature ratios. Both laminar and turbulent heat-transfer data were in good agreement with theoretical Stanton numbers when heat-transfer reduction due to tip blunting was considered.

CYLINDRICAL AFTERBODY↗
NASA NTRS1971

Calculation of compressible nonadiabatic boundary layers in laminar, transitional and turbulent flow by the method of integral relations

A computer program was developed to do the calculations for two-dimensional or axisymmetric configurations from low speeds to hypersonic speeds with arbitrary streamwise pressure, temperature, and Mach number distributions. Options are provided for obtaining initial conditions either from experimental information or from a theoretical similarity solution. The transition region can be described either by an arbitrary distribution of intermittency or by a function based on Emmons' probability theory. Correlations were developed for use in estimating the parameters of the theoretical intermittency function. Correlations obtained from other sources are used for estimating the transition point. Comparisons were made between calculated and measured boundary layer quantities for laminar, transitional, and turbulent flows on flat plates, cones, cone flares, and a waisted body of revolution. Excellent agreement was obtained between the present theory and two other theories based on the method of finite differences. The intermittency required to reproduce some experimental heat transfer results in hypersonic flow was found to be quite different from the theoretical function. It is suggested that the simple probability theory of Emmons may not be valid for representing the intermittency of hypersonic transitional boundary layers and that the program could be useful as a tool for detailed study of the intermittency of the transition region.

Kuhn, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Surface soil variability and stratigraphy at the Apollo 16 site

The results of penetration tests, analyses of footprint and Lunar Roving Vehicle track depths, and core tube sample data have been used to deduce details of near-surface stratigraphy (to depths of several tens of cm) and lateral variability in soil conditions. Local variations (meter scale) in penetration resistance and porosity may be large, and soil stratigraphy may be complex. Since average properties are about the same at all sites, these variations probably reflect individual cratering and depositional events. These local variations cannot be anticipated on the basis of surface appearance or behavior.

Mitchell, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Heat transport in a stratified two-phase fluid

A self-gravitating fluid, stratified into two phases of appreciably different densities and heated from within is considered. The heat flux, viscosity, and thermal diffusivity are assumed to be small enough so that, away from the interface between the phases, the flux is mainly carried by turbulent convection with a very small superadiabaticity. Different modes are investigated for transporting the heat flux across the interface, and both possible signs of the latent heat L are considered. A thermal boundary layer, distortion of the interface, and the nucleation, growth and motion of droplets and bubbles are included. It is shown that, under a specified range of conditions, the transition region near the interface is thin with a small change in the temperature T across it. The entropy difference between the two phases is then L/T. These considerations probably apply to the interior of Jupiter.

Salpeter, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Thunderstorm Research International Program (TRIP 77) report to management

A post analysis of the previous day's weather, followed by the day's forecast and an outlook on weather conditions for the following day is given. The normal NOAA weather charts were used, complemented by the latest GOES satellite pictures, the latest rawinsonde sounding, and the computer-derived thunderstorm probability forecasts associated with the sounding.

Taiani, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The relationship between lunar metal particles and phosphate minerals

Phosphorus is often present in lunar rocks and soils in bulk concentrations in excess of 0.5 wt % P205. The minerals apatite and whitlockite account for most of the phosphorus. However, it may also be present in metal grains. The relations between metal particles and the phosphates commonly found adjacent to these particles are investigated, taking into account studies involving three Apollo 17 rocks. It appears that phosphorus in lunar metal particles is related to the phosphate minerals by a redox reaction. The independent phosphates probably formed over much of the cooling period of the rock. While the rock was at high temperature, however, phosphorus was free to diffuse and dissolve in the metal droplets providing conditions were sufficiently reducing. If the rock was partially molten, this process would take less than 1 hr. If cooling occurred slowly under less reducing conditions, some of the phosphorus in the metal particles would be oxidized to form whitlockite.

Friel, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The Atlas-Centaur 67 incident

The conditions leading to the breakup of the Atlas-Centaur 67 (AC-67) vehicle launched on March 26, 1987 during a typical winter-time storm are analyzed, and a most probable lightning strike scenario was developed based on inspection of the AC-67 debris, the AC-68 vehicle, and appropriate drawings, electrical diagrams, and photographs. It is shown that, during ascent, the vehicle encountered increasingly larger electric fields and flew through clouds that produced precipitation static on the vehicle, eventually triggering a cloud-to-ground lightning, comprised of at least four return strokes. The resulting lightning current coupled a signal into the wiring which goes to the AC-67 digital computer unit (DCU), effecting a single-word memory alteration and causing the DCU to issue a hardover engine gimbal command. This led to an excessive angle of attack, large dynamic loads, and the breakup of the AC-67.

Christian, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Self assembly properties of primitive organic compounds

A central event in the origin of life was the self-assembly of amphiphilic, lipid-like compounds into closed microenvironments. If a primitive macromolecular replicating system could be encapsulated within a vesicular membrane, the components of the system would share the same microenvironment, and the result would be a step toward true cellular function. The goal of our research has been to determine what amphiphilic molecules might plausibly have been available on the early Earth to participate in the formation of such boundary structures. To this end, we have investigated primitive organic mixtures present in carbonaceous meteorites such as the Murchison meteorite, which contains 1-2 percent of its mass in the form of organic carbon compounds. It is likely that such compounds contributed to the inventory of organic carbon on the prebiotic earth, and were available to participate in chemical evolution leading to the emergence of the first cellular life forms. We found that Murchison components extracted into non-polar solvent systems are surface active, a clear indication of amphiphilic character. One acidic fraction self-assembles into vesicular membranes that provide permeability barriers to polar solutes. Other evidence indicates that the membranes are bimolecular layers similar to those formed by contemporary membrane lipids. We conclude that bilayer membrane formation by primitive amphiphiles on the early Earth is feasible. However, only a minor fraction of acidic amphiphiles assembles into bilayers, and the resulting membranes require narrowly defined conditions of pH and ionic composition to be stable. It seems unlikely, therefore, that meteoritic infall was a direct source of membrane amphiphiles. Instead, the hydrocarbon components and their derivatives more probably would provide an organic stock available for chemical evolution. Our current research is directed at possible reactions which would generate substantial quantities of membranogenic amphiphiles. One possibility is photochemical oxidation of hydrocarbons.

Deamer, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Next Solar Sail: Lessons Learned from NanoSail - D2

NanoSail-D2 unfurled January 17th, 2011 and commenced a nine month Low Earth Orbit path to reentry to evaluate a sail's capacity to deploy in space and deorbit satellites. The orbit was strongly affected by variables including but not limited to: initial attitude, orbit lighting, solar radiation pressure, aerodynamic drag, gravity, and Center of Pressure offsets. The effects of these variables were evaluated through a 3-DOF rigid body simulation. The sail experienced stability in orbits which were continuously lit, i.e. did not orbit behind Earth. Probable drag area experienced by the sail for the mission is also estimated from orbital data and compared to the attitude simulation results. Analysis focuses on sail behavior in full lighting conditions to establish the limits of the sails stability in full lighting. Solar radiation pressure, aerodynamic drag, and gravity torque effects are described. Lastly, a reasonable upper bound on the variation of the Center of Pressure from the geometric center of the sail plane is established. Each of these results contributes to the design requirements for future solar sails.

Katan, Chelsea↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2016

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Optimization Version 4.0 Functional Improvements

The IMMs ability to assess mission outcome risk levels relative to available resources provides a unique capability to provide guidance on optimal operational medical kit and vehicle resources. Post-processing optimization allows IMM to optimize essential resources to improve a specific model outcome such as maximization of the Crew Health Index (CHI), or minimization of the probability of evacuation (EVAC) or the loss of crew life (LOCL). Mass and or volume constrain the optimized resource set. The IMMs probabilistic simulation uses input data on one hundred medical conditions to simulate medical events that may occur in spaceflight, the resources required to treat those events, and the resulting impact to the mission based on specific crew and mission characteristics. Because IMM version 4.0 provides for partial treatment for medical events, IMM Optimization 4.0 scores resources at the individual resource unit increment level as opposed to the full condition-specific treatment set level, as done in version 3.0. This allows the inclusion of as many resources as possible in the event that an entire set of resources called out for treatment cannot satisfy the constraints. IMM Optimization version 4.0 adds capabilities that increase efficiency by creating multiple resource sets based on differing constraints and priorities, CHI, EVAC, or LOCL. It also provides sets of resources that improve mission-related IMM v4.0 outputs with improved performance compared to the prior optimization. The new optimization represents much improved fidelity that will improve the utility of the IMM 4.0 for decision support.

risk assessment↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Infant Mortality and Wear-Out Failures in Polymer and MnO2 Tantalum Capacitors

Reliability testing of modern tantalum capacitors shows the presence of both types, infant mortality (IM) and wearout (WO) failures. To assure reliable operation, the probability of IM failures should be reduced to below the specified level, and the time of WO inception should be greater than the required useful life of the parts at operation conditions. In this work, several types of MnO2 and polymer cathode tantalum capacitors have been tested at highly accelerated conditions to assess voltage acceleration factors, determine adequate burn-in conditions, and assess the useful life. A modified time dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model has been suggested to explain both types of failure, and a physical mechanism of degradation that is based on migration and reactions of oxygen vacancies explains increase of the defect related, IM failures with the level of stress.

tantalum capacitors↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probability of Obstacle Collision for UAVs in Presence of Wind

For incorporation of unmanned aerial vehicles into the National Airspace, ensuring safety of the airspace including the vehicles, people, and property on the ground is of utmost importance. One of the safety-critical factors for unmanned aviation flights is the risk of deviating from a planned trajectory resulting in a variety of hazards, including potential loss of separation between vehicle and obstacles or unexpected battery energy consumption. Off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts can lead to unacceptable unexpected deviations from the flight trajectory. It is essential to accurately model such effects on the flight trajectory while computing safety thresholds such as minimum separation from surrounding obstacles, available battery resource to complete the mission or determining delay in the expected time of arrival of flights. In this paper, a tool is presented based on Gaussian Process Regression for wind representation over a pre-defined trajectory for fast, yet approximated, in-time evaluation of possible trajectory deviations caused by wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused by wind is further simulated utilizing a 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) UAV trajectory simulator comprising of a rotorcraft lumped-mass model with LQRI controller. Both steady-state wind and wind gust effects are investigated. The probability of collision with obstacle is computed and demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in the presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions and varying UAV airspeed is further demonstrated on experimental flights in the presence of wind measured by ground based weather service stations. The proposed approach would eventually benefit timely mitigation of current and future safety-critical events in autonomous systems by enabling risk-informed decision making.

Portia Banerjee↗