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At least 757 records · Page 42

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling Distributed Situation Awareness in Resilience-Based Design of Complex Engineered Systems

Human operators play a major role in the resilience of complex systems–while human error is one of the biggest contributors to hazardous events, operators additionally play a critical role in mitigating hazardous events. A key factor underlying this operator resilience is situation awareness–the ability of operators to understand their environment and each other to achieve desired system functions. In contrast to situation awareness-related accident models in the literature, which are largely conceptual in nature, this work proposes the use of a dynamic simulation framework to concretely model both the effects of situation awareness-related human errors and situation awareness-related hazard-mitigating properties using the distributed situation awareness theory. This work then presents specialized model constructs to enable agents’ individual perceptions of the system state and transactions with other agents (and thus distributed situation awareness) to be represented in simulation. To demonstrate this framework, it is then adapted to an aircraft taxiway case study, where it is used to model aircraft conflicts due to lack of vision and poor communications from the air traffic controller. This demonstration shows the potential of using simulation models to rigorously understand situation awareness-related human errors and thus inform the design of resilience.

Resilience Modeling↗

Modeling Distributed Situation Awareness in Resilience-based Design of Complex Systems

Human operators play a major role in the resilience of complex systems–while human error is one of the biggest contributors to hazardous events, operators additionally play a critical role in mitigating hazardous events. A key factor underlying this operator resilience is situation awareness–the ability of operators to understand their environment and each other to achieve desired system functions. In contrast to situation awareness-related accident models in the literature, which are largely conceptual in nature, this work proposes the use of a dynamic simulation framework to concretely model both the effects of situation awareness-related human errors and situation awareness-related hazard-mitigating properties using the distributed situation awareness theory. This work then presents specialized model constructs to enable agents’ individual perceptions of the system state and transactions with other agents (and thus distributed situation awareness) to be represented in simulation. To demonstrate this framework, it is then adapted to an aircraft taxiway case study, where it is used to model aircraft conflicts due to lack of vision and poor communications from the air traffic controller. This demonstration shows the potential of using simulation models to rigorously understand situation awareness-related human errors and thus inform the design of resilience.

Resilience Modeling↗

Transition Models for Engineering Calculations

While future theoretical and conceptual developments may promote a better understanding of the physical processes involved in the latter stages of boundary layer transition, the designers of rotodynamic machinery and other fluid dynamic devices need effective transition models now. This presentation will therefore center around the development of of some transition models which have been developed as design aids to improve the prediction codes used in the performance evaluation of gas turbine blading. All models are based on Narasimba's concentrated breakdown and spot growth.

Fraser, C. J.↗

Motion Planning in a Society of Intelligent Mobile Agents

The majority of the work on this grant involved formal modeling of human-computer integration. We conceptualize computer resources as a multiagent system so that these resources and human collaborators may be modeled uniformly. In previous work we had used modal for this uniform modeling, and we had developed a process-algebraic agent abstraction. In this work, we applied this abstraction (using CSP) in uniformly modeling agents and users, which allowed us to use tools for investigating CSP models. This work revealed the power of, process-algebraic handshakes in modeling face-to-face conversation. We also investigated specifications of human-computer systems in the style of algebraic specification. This involved specifying the common knowledge required for coordination and process-algebraic patterns of communication actions intended to establish the common knowledge. We investigated the conditions for agents endowed with perception to gain common knowledge and implemented a prototype neural-network system that allows agents to detect when such conditions hold. The literature on multiagent systems conceptualizes communication actions as speech acts. We implemented a prototype system that infers the deontic effects (obligations, permissions, prohibitions) of speech acts and detects violations of these effects. A prototype distributed system was developed that allows users to collaborate in moving proxy agents; it was designed to exploit handshakes and common knowledge Finally. in work carried over from a previous NASA ARC grant, about fifteen undergraduates developed and presented projects on multiagent motion planning.

Esterline, Albert C.↗

Bridging molecular-scale interfacial science with continuum-scale models

Solid–water interfaces are crucial for clean water, conventional and renewable energy, and effective nuclear waste management. However, reflecting the complexity of reactive interfaces in continuum-scale models is a challenge, leading to oversimplified representations that often fail to predict real-world behavior. This is because these models use fixed parameters derived by averaging across a wide physicochemical range observed at the molecular scale. Recent studies have revealed the stochastic nature of molecular-level surface sites that define a variety of reaction mechanisms, rates, and products even across a single surface. To bridge the molecular knowledge and predictive continuum-scale models, we propose to represent surface properties with probability distributions rather than with discrete constant values derived by averaging across a heterogeneous surface. This conceptual shift in continuum-scale modeling requires exponentially rising computational power. By incorporating our molecular-scale understanding of solid–water interfaces into continuum-scale models we can pave the way for next generation critical technologies and novel environmental solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems via Multiscale Market Simulations and Surrogate Models for Market Interactions

This final report describes novel capabilities developed as part of DISPATCHES, Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems, for designing hybrid energy systems (HES) a.k.a. integrated energy systems (IES) in the context of a larger electricity market. Capabilities are demonstrated on case studies for nuclear and renewable power.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

runoff↗

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗

Solvent selection for biphasic extraction of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural via multiscale modeling and experiments

We introduce a comprehensive conceptual framework for selecting solvents for reactive extraction in biphasic organic-water systems and demonstrate it for the separation of HMF (5-hydroxylmethylfurfural), a platform chemical produced in the acid-catalyzed dehydration of hexoses. We first perform in silico screening of ~2500 solvents, from the ADFCRS-2018 database using the ADF COSMO-RS implementation, and classification, based on the solvent partition coefficient. We then determine experimentally the partition coefficients for HMF, fructose, and products of HMF rehydration (levulinic acid (LA), and formic acid (FA)), the mutual water-organic solvent solubilities, and the separation factors in >50 select solvents spanning multiple homologous series at room temperature and a typical reaction temperature with in situ sampling. We find that COSMO-RS is excellent for screening purposes (typical error in most cases within a factor of ~2). Increased temperatures lead to significant reduction in partitioning, and room temperature measurements are clearly inadequate for solvent selection. Upon down selecting classes of solvents based on separation performance, we perform experimental thermal stability and reaction compatibility studies of a small set of solvents at relevant reactive-extraction temperatures. We discover that many substituted phenols exhibit an order-of-magnitude increase in partitioning compared to conventional solvents due chiefly to hydrogen bond interactions and show the necessary stability but retain a significant fraction of water and LA, factors that need to be considered in technoeconomic analysis. In contrast, anilines, aldehydes, and acids are good to excellent regarding separation but incompatible with this specific reaction medium. Furthermore, this multifaceted framework can be extended to other biomass-derived products and processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modular Adaptive Packing for Integrally Cooled Absorbers

Process intensification is one cornerstone in ION Clean Energy’s (ION) efforts to lowering CO2 capture cost. ION has modeled, designed, and fabricated an innovative gas-liquid contactor known as Modular Adaptive Packing (MAP). During two successful SBIR Phase I and II projects entitled: “Rapid Design and Testing of Novel Gas-Liquid Contacting Devices for Post-Combustion CO2 Capture via 3D-printing”, ION developed and proved this new technology at bench scale. MAP, a 3D-printed lattice-structured packing, combines the absorber gas/liquid contactor with an innovative in-situ heat-exchanger. Thanks to the capabilities of 3D-printing, the lattice structure of MAP contains hollow channels through which coolant water can be pumped to remove the heat of reaction from CO2 absorption. ION refers to this novel method of heat exchange as intracooling. After 25.4 cm (10 in) diameter MAP modules were fabricated, ION built and tested a packing characterization rig at its pilot facility in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. To provide baseline results for the characterization rig, ION tested Sulzer’s Mellapak™ 250Y (MP250Y) as a standard structured packing. ION’s MAP was then compared directly to the baseline MP250Y packing to evaluate key indicators including pressure drop, liquid hold-up, and effective area. MAP has a higher pressure drop than MP250Y at the same gas velocities in addition to greater liquid holdup. However, ION found that MAP displays a higher wetting coverage of 93% compared to 65% for MP250Y and reduces shearing forces that result in undesirable droplet formation. Using Optimized Gas Treating’s (OGT) rate-based simulation software ProTreat®, a conceptual evaluation of MAP was modeled for a CO2 absorber using 30 wt% MEA solvent over a range of lean loadings at 90% CO2 capture from a coal-fired power plant. ION modeled a 25-meter column absorber for both the standard MP250Y packing and a hybrid column. The hybrid absorber contained 10 m of MP250Y packing at the top and bottom with the middle 5 meters comprised of MAP. Compared to a traditional intercooled absorber, MAP can remove 22% more heat and increase overall MEA carrying capacity by 4% without increasing overall pressure drop.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Abstract models for the synthesis of optimization algorithms.

Systematic approach to the problem of synthesis of optimization algorithms. Abstract models for algorithms are developed which guide the inventive process toward ?conceptual' algorithms which may consist of operations that are inadmissible in a practical method. Once the abstract models are established a set of methods for converting ?conceptual' algorithms falling into the class defined by the abstract models into ?implementable' iterative procedures is presented.

Meyer, G. G. L.↗

Utilizing Advanced Air Mobility Rotorcraft Tools for Wildfire Applications

Over the past decade, due in large part to heavy investment in the field of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), significant progress in rotorcraft-focused modeling tools has been made. Such progress has notably increased AAM rotorcraft modeling capabilities in the topics of conceptual design, preliminary design, and more recently flight dynamics. Yet, due to recent and persistent increases in extreme weather events, an emerging interest has been raised in utilizing such modeling capabilities for aiding in emergency relief efforts and other public good missions. This paper uses wildfire fighting as a representative public good mission and demonstrates the relevance of the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) rotorcraft toolchain to such missions. An emphasis is placed on flight dynamics modeling and control because of the hazards and challenges associated with the atmospheric environment of wildfires. In this work, the NASA FlightCODE tool was used to analyze both a UH-60 and the NASA six-passenger quadcopter reference model hovering in an experimentally informed wildfire turbulent environment. Preliminary results of this study estimate actuator usage exceedances and disturbance rejection capabilities of the vehicles’ translational rate command systems. Leveraging the RVLT toolchain, refinement and expansion of this work could lead to handling qualities envelope estimation and design optimization for wildfire turbulent environments. This would provide pilots with additional information to make real-time decisions in high-risk scenarios and begins preparations for simulating these dangerous environments for pilot training and experimentation.

Rotorcraft↗

Utilizing Advanced Air Mobility Rotorcraft Tools for Wildfire Applications

Over the past decade, due in large part to heavy investment in the field of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), significant progress in rotorcraft-focused modeling tools has been made. Such progress has notably increased AAM rotorcraft modeling capabilities in the topics of conceptual design, preliminary design, and more recently flight dynamics. Yet, due to recent and persistent increases in extreme weather events, an emerging interest has been raised in utilizing such modeling capabilities for aiding in emergency relief efforts and other public good missions. This paper uses wildfire fighting as a representative public good mission and demonstrates the relevance of the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) rotorcraft toolchain to such missions. An emphasis is placed on flight dynamics modeling and control because of the hazards and challenges associated with the atmospheric environment of wildfires. In this work, the NASA FlightCODE tool was used to analyze both a UH-60 and the NASA six-passenger quadcopter reference model hovering in an experimentally informed wildfire turbulent environment. Preliminary results of this study estimate actuator usage exceedances and disturbance rejection capabilities of the vehicles’ translational rate command systems. Leveraging the RVLT toolchain, refinement and expansion of this work could lead to handling qualities envelope estimation and design optimization for wildfire turbulent environments. This would provide pilots with additional information to make real-time decisions in high-risk scenarios and begins preparations for simulating these dangerous environments for pilot training and experimentation.

Rotorcraft↗

Operability and control in process intensification and modular design: Challenges and opportunities

Abstract In this article, the importance of considering operability and control criteria in the analysis and design of intensified and modular processes is discussed. We first analyze the impact on operability of key factors including: (i) degrees of freedom, (ii) process constraints, (iii) numbering up vs. scaling up, and (iv) dynamic/periodic operation. Comparative examples are presented to showcase the pros and cons in intensified/modular systems vs. their conventional counterparts from operability and control aspects. Then we look into metrics and tools to address these challenges such as: (i) flexibility analysis, (ii) operability‐based design, and (iii) advanced model‐based control. Considering different conceptual design stages as synthesis intensification, steady‐state design, and dynamic operational optimization, we highlight the need to incorporate different levels of operability considerations. Future research opportunities and perspectives are also identified, particularly emphasizing the importance of a holistic strategy for integrated design, operability, and control of intensified and modular process systems.

Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N.↗

Fundamental Behavior of ENSO Phase Locking

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to peak at the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon called ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental ENSO property that is determined by its basic dynamics. The conceptual ENSO recharge oscillator (RO) model is adopted to examine the ENSO phase-locking behavior in terms of its peak time, strength of phase locking, and asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. The RO model reproduces the main phase-locking characteristics found in observations, and the results show that the phase locking of ENSO is mainly dominated by the seasonal modulation of ENSO growth/decay rate. In addition, the linear/nonlinear mechanism of ENSO phase preference/phase locking is investigated using RO model. The difference between the nonlinear phase-locking mechanism and linear phase-preference mechanism is largely smoothed out in the presence of noise forcing. Further, the impact on ENSO phase locking from annual cycle modulation of the growth/decay rate, stochastic forcing, nonlinearity, and linear frequency are examined in the RO model. The preferred month of ENSO peak time depends critically on the phase and strength of the seasonal modulation of the ENSO growth/decay rate. Furthermore, the strength of phase locking is mainly controlled by the linear growth/decay rate, the amplitude of seasonal modulation of growth/decay rate, the amplitude of noise, the SST-dependent factor of multiplicative noise, and the linear frequency. The asymmetry of the sharpness of ENSO phase locking is induced by the asymmetric effect of state-dependent noise forcing in El Niño and La Niña events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrochemically modulated single-molecule localization microscopy for in vitro imaging cytoskeletal protein structures

A new concept of electrochemically modulated single-molecule localization super-resolution imaging is developed. Applications of single-molecule localization super-resolution microscopy have been limited due to insufficient availability of qualified fluorophores with favorable low duty cycles. The key for the new concept is that the “On” state of a redox-active fluorophore with unfavorable high duty cycle could be driven to “Off” state by electrochemical potential modulation and thus become available for single-molecule localization imaging. The new concept was carried out using redox-active cresyl violet with unfavorable high duty cycle as a model fluorophore by synchronizing electrochemical potential scanning with a single-molecule localization microscope. The two cytoskeletal protein structures, the microtubules from porcine brain and the actins from rabbit muscle, were selected as the model target structures for the conceptual imaging in vitro. The super-resolution images of microtubules and actins were obtained from precise single-molecule localizations determined by modulating the On/Off states of single fluorophore molecules on the cytoskeletal proteins via electrochemical potential scanning. Importantly, this method could allow more fluorophores even with unfavorable photophysical properties to become available for a wider and more extensive application of single-molecule localization microscopy.

electrochemical modulation↗

Multiscale Patterning from Competing Interactions and Length Scales

We live in an era of complexity marked by impressive new tools powering the scientific method to accelerate discovery, prediction, and control of increasingly complex systems. In common with many disciplines and societal challenges and opportunities, materials and condensed matter sciences are beneficiaries. The volume and fidelity of experimental, computational, and visualization data available, and tools to rapidly interpret them, are remarkable. Conceptual frameworks, including multiscale, multiphysics modeling of this complexity, are fueled by the data and, in turn, guide directions for future experimental and computational strategies. In this spirit, we discuss the importance of competing interactions, length scales, and constraints as pervasive sources of spatio-temporal complexity. We use representative examples drawn from materials and condensed matter, including the important role of elasticity in some technologically important quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗