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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physically constrained 3D diffusion for inverse design of fiber-reinforced polymer composite materials

Designing fiber-reinforced polymer composites (FRPCs) with a tailored nonlinear stress-strain response is crucial for applications such as energy absorption in crash structures, flexible robotics, and impact-resistant protective gear. However, the inherent complexities of composite materials and the multitude of parameters involved, render traditional design and optimization methods inadequate for achieving effective inverse design of composites. In this paper, we present an AI-based inverse design framework that effectively and efficiently generates FRPCs with targeted nonlinear stress-strain responses. We introduce a physically constrained diffusion model (PC3D_Diffusion) capable of managing the complexities of composite materials and producing detailed, high-quality designs. We propose a loss-guided, learning-free approach to generate physically feasible microstructure designs by explicitly enforcing physical constraints during the generation process. For training purposes, 1.35 million FRPC samples were created, and their corresponding stress-strain curves were computed using established physics-based computational models. The results show that PC3D_Diffusion consistently generates high-quality designs with tailored mechanical behaviors, while guaranteeing compliance with the physical constraints. PC3D_Diffusion advances FRPC inverse design and may facilitate the inverse design of other 3D materials, offering potential applications in industries reliant on materials with custom mechanical properties.

Xu, Pei [Clemson Univ., SC (United States)]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Entangled Physics Relationships Through Sparse Matrix Decomposition to Inform Plasma Fusion Design

We report a sustainable burn platform through inertial confinement fusion (ICF) has been an ongoing challenge for over 50 years. Mitigating engineering limitations and improving the current design involves an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes. While sophisticated simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, these tools contain necessary numerical approximation but miss physical processes that limit predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs to ICF experiments and measurable outcomes (e.g., neutron yield, neutron velocity, areal density) from performed experiments can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, to potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF experiments. We use sparse matrix decomposition methods to identify clusters of a few related design variables. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) identifies groupings that are related to the physical origin of the variables (laser, hohlraum, and capsule). A variable importance analysis finds that in addition to variables highly correlated with neutron yield, such as picket power and laser energy, variables that represent a dramatic change of the ICF design, such as number of pulse steps, are also very important. The obtained sparse components are then used to train a random forest (RF) regression surrogate for predicting total yield. The RF performance on the training and testing data compares with the performance of the RF trained using all the design variables considered. This work is intended to inform design changes in future ICF experiments by augmenting the expert intuition and simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Radiation Oncology – A New NCI–DOE Scientific Space and Community

With a widely attended virtual kickoff event on January 29, 2021, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Department of Energy (DOE) launched a series of 4 interactive, interdisciplinary workshops—and a final concluding “World Café” on March 29, 2021—focused on advancing computational approaches for predictive oncology in the clinical and research domains of radiation oncology. These events reflect 3,870 human hours of virtual engagement with representation from 8 DOE national laboratories and the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research (FNL), 4 research institutes, 5 cancer centers, 17 medical schools and teaching hospitals, 5 companies, 5 federal agencies, 3 research centers, and 27 universities. Here we summarize the workshops by first describing the background for the workshops. Participants identified twelve key questions—and collaborative parallel ideas—as the focus of work going forward to advance the field. These were then used to define short-term and longer-term “Blue Sky” goals. In addition, the group determined key success factors for predictive oncology in the context of radiation oncology, if not the future of all of medicine. These are: cross-discipline collaboration, targeted talent development, development of mechanistic mathematical and computational models and tools, and access to high-quality multiscale data that bridges mechanisms to phenotype. The workshop participants reported feeling energized and highly motivated to pursue next steps together to address the unmet needs in radiation oncology specifically and in cancer research generally and that NCI and DOE project goals align at the convergence of radiation therapy and advanced computing.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Modeling of Plutonium Radiation Chemistry in Nitric Acid Solutions. 1. Cobalt-60 Gamma Irradiation of Pu(IV)

We report careful manipulation of the plutonium oxidation states is essential in the study and utilization of its rich redox chemistry. To achieve this level of control, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry is critical due to the unavoidable exposure of plutonium to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. To this end, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multiscale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu(IV) redox chemistry in concentrated nitric acid solutions (1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 M). Under these acidic, aqueous solution conditions, cobalt-60 gamma irradiation afforded marginal net conversion of Pu(IV) to Pu(VI), the extent of which was dependent on the concentration of HNO 3 and absorbed gamma dose. Multiscale calculations, which are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicate that this observation is due to a combination of inherent plutonium disproportionation reactions and several radiation-induced processes, including redox cycling between Pu(IV) and Pu(III), as achieved by the reduction of Pu(IV) by nitrous acid and hydrogen peroxide, the oxidation of Pu(III) by nitrate and hydroxyl radicals, and the sequential oxidation of Pu(IV) to Pu(V) and Pu(VI) by the remaining available yield of nitrate radicals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate policy models need to get real about people — here’s how

Here, to predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models. Political support for decarbonizing the global economy is at an all-time high. The good news is that about two-thirds of carbon emissions come from countries that have committed to reach ‘net zero’ by mid-century — they aim to cut their greenhouse-gas outputs and capture as much as they emit. The bad news? The computer models that analysts use to assess routes to achieve such goals are missing a crucial factor: politics.

Peng, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of Inelastic Neutron Scattering Spectra Directly from Molecular Dynamics Trajectories

Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is a widely used technique to study atomic and molecular vibrations. With the increasing complexity of materials and thus the INS spectra, being able to simulate the spectra from various atomistic models becomes an essential step and also a major bottleneck for INS data analysis. The conventional approach using density functional theory and lattice dynamics often falls short when the materials of interest are complex (e.g., defective, disordered, heterogeneous, amorphous, large-scale), for which molecular dynamics driven by an interatomic force field is a more common approach. In this paper, we demonstrate a method to directly convert molecular dynamics trajectories into simulated INS spectra, including not only fundamental but also higher order excitations. In this work, the results are compared with data collected on various representative samples from different neutron spectrometers. This development will open great opportunities by providing the key tool to perform in-depth analysis of INS data and to validate and optimize computer models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

SEC ‐ SAXS / MC Ensemble Structural Studies of the Microtubule Binding Protein Cdt1 Show Monomeric, Folded‐Over Conformations

ABSTRACT Cdt1 is a mixed folded protein critical for DNA replication licensing and it also has a “moonlighting” role at the kinetochore via direct binding to microtubules and the Ndc80 complex. However, it is unknown how the structure and conformations of Cdt1 could allow it to participate in these multiple, unique sets of protein complexes. While robust methods exist to study entirely folded or unfolded proteins, structure–function studies of combined, mixed folded/disordered proteins remain challenging. In this work, we employ orthogonal biophysical and computational techniques to provide structural characterization of mitosis‐competent human Cdt1. Thermal stability analyses shows that both folded winged helix domains1 are unstable. CD and NMR show that the N‐terminal and linker regions are intrinsically disordered. DLS shows that Cdt1 is monomeric and polydisperse, while SEC‐MALS confirms that it is monomeric at high concentrations, but without any apparent inter‐molecular self‐association. SEC‐SAXS enabled computational modeling of the protein structures. Using the program SASSIE, we performed rigid body Monte Carlo simulations to generate a conformational ensemble of structures. We observe that neither fully extended nor extremely compact Cdt1 conformations are consistent with SAXS. The best‐fit models have the N‐terminal and linker disordered regions extended into the solution and the two folded domains close to each other in apparent “folded over” conformations. We hypothesize the best‐fit Cdt1 conformations could be consistent with a function as a scaffold protein that may be sterically blocked without binding partners. Our study also provides a template for combining experimental and computational techniques to study mixed‐folded proteins.

Cell Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of Simulation Models for Wall-Connected Scrape off Layer Currents during MHD Activity in the HBT-EP Tokamak (Final Report)

This is the final report for the DOE award DE-SC0021325, titled “Validation of Simulation Models for Wall-Connected Scrape off Layer Currents during MHD Activity in the HBT-EP Tokamak” for the period September 1, 2020 – May 31, 2023. This award is part of a broader collaborative project, which supported training of a PhD student at Columbia University under the joint supervision of Dr. Hansen and Columbia project members. The award supported research into computational models for plasma and 3D conducting structures in the vicinity relevant to tokamak disruptions and other mode activity (eg. RWMs) using the NIMROD, and PSI-Tet, codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A trait-based framework for linking microbial communities with carbon transformations under precipitation change

Droughts are common throughout the world. As the climate changes, droughts may become more frequent and intense. Still, scientists are uncertain about how drought will affect the natural world, particularly the bacteria, fungi, and other microbes that live in soils. These tiny life forms are crucial because they control the Earth’s flows of carbon and essential nutrients. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory teamed up to study how the microbiome, or collection of bacteria and fungi in the soil, deals with drought. Since 2007, the researchers have used shelters with retractable roofs to prevent nearly half of normal rainfall from reaching grass and shrub ecosystems, and their soil microbiomes, in Southern California. The study team discovered that microbes have some clever tricks up their sleeve for surviving drought. When growing on dead grass as a food source, microbes ramp up production of specialized chemicals called osmolytes that keep their cells from drying out. But microbes growing on dead shrubs face another problem. Unlike grass, shrub leaves are a lousy food source. To digest and consume shrub leaves, microbes have to exude more enzymes, which act like biochemical chef knives that chop complex leaf molecules into bite-sized pieces. Carbon is the coin of the microbial realm, earned via enzyme action or slurping up dead plant juices. Microbes growing under normal conditions on tasty dead grass have it easy: they can spend most of their carbon currency on growth. With drought, life gets harder as microbes need to pay up for osmolytes and ramp down their growth. It gets worse with shrub leaves because microbes have to multi-task among growth, enzyme secretion, and osmolyte production. When drought hits, microbes on shrub leaves forgo the osmolytes, probably because losing the carbon revenue from enzyme investment would be a deal-breaker for survival. The next question tackled by the researchers asked how the genes controlling microbial lifestyles sort out across the tree of life. Most microbiologists thought these lifestyles would correspond to rather large branches on the tree. But the study team found that in fact, very closely related microbes differ in important and interesting ways. For example, bacteria that have nearly identical housekeeping genes respond distinctively to warming, rainfall, and plant chemistry. As a result, soil microbiomes are much richer in diversity than originally thought. And studying microbial diversity in much greater detail could open up many more possibilities for how microbial life deals with changing environmental conditions. Trying to understand microbial life without the fine details of genetic diversity is like trying to stream Netflix on a dial-up connection. By looking across the landscape, the researchers revealed that microbial diversity is absolutely critical for maintaining the planet’s flows of carbon and nutrients. The study team designed a new technology—microbial cages—for transplanting intact microbiomes. With the cages, the researchers could move microbiomes to novel environments and compare their ability to cycle carbon and nutrients. In some cases, performance tailed off when microbiomes found themselves in a new environment, but in other cases, performance rivaled or even exceeded that of the resident microbiome. And even the low performers eventually caught up to the native microbiomes if given sufficient time. These findings mean that microbiomes—at least in Southern California—may be resilient to climate shifts due to a high diversity of microbial lifestyles. Coping with heat and drought may literally be in their DNA. The last piece of the research puzzle, and a “Holy Grail” for microbial ecologists, is to forecast the behavior of diverse microbiomes. To meet this challenge, the study team developed new theory and computer models. For the first time, these models account for hundreds of different microbes and how their intricate lifestyles cope with drought. The models are starting to connect the tiniest microbes with the global cycles that sustain Earth’s farms, fields, and forests. With that connection, it will be easier for society to plan for a world with more droughts and other climate disruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclide inventory validation: radiochemical assay data quality and modeling challenges in benchmark models development

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is conducting radiochemical assay experiments, using high-precision analytical protocols validated with a comprehensive quality assurance plan, to expand the nuclide inventory validation basis for high burnup spent nuclear fuel. Preliminary measurement data for key actinides and fission products in two pressurized water reactor spent fuel samples are being used to investigate the impact of measurement data uncertainty on the sample burnup estimation. These measurement data are also being used to examine the impact of assumptions applied when developing best-estimate computational models to simulate fuel irradiation history. The simulations are being performed using depletion capabilities in the SCALE code system. Comparison of calculated and measured nuclide concentrations shows good agreement for the considered nuclides. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uniting Theory and Experiment to Deliver Flexible MOFS for Superior Methane (NG) Storage

The objective of the project was to use previous insights developed through synthesis and quantitative modeling of rigid metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in an established synergistic theoretical/experimental team to create, modify, and evaluate flexible MOFs (FlexMOFs) for natural gas (NG) storage and release at practically useful pressures and transform the NG storage economy. The goal was reduced pressure absorbed natural gas (ANG) FlexMOF storage at operating pressures less than 100 bar with physisorption exploiting the favorable thermodynamics and kinetics of flexible porous material opening in response to adsorption. Hydrogen behavior in this context was also considered. The specific aim of the project was to design and develop a standard computational modeling methodology for, first, detailed atomistic retrodiction of FlexMOF gating behavior and ultimately prediction of the effects of functionalization and/or substitution on structural transitioning. The project was also geared towards the establishment of the interaction of methane with the framework and binding sites using modeling and the FlexMOF will be both internally and external validated as a SMART metric. This has value to the scientific community both from the obvious standpoint of providing a better understanding of the promising test case systems (CdIF-13 and the MIL-53(Al) series of MOFs), but also in providing an avenue of obtaining insight into these FlexMOF systems in general, which is of particular interest given the tendency of structure-function correlation to lag behind synthesis methodology (making the latter a hit or miss proposition for applications). This gap remains significant for FlexMOF systems whose gate opening behaviors complicate computational examination. The computational methodologies are relatively inexpensive in terms of both money and computational resources enhancing the general viability of these methodologies. The ultimate gain to the public will be in the application of these techniques to design systems for natural gas storage and use to cut down on green-house emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

PV Hosting Capacity Estimation: Experiences with Scalable Framework

Hosting capacity is an indication of the amount of solar photovoltaics (PV) that can be hosted in a distribution system without additional changes to infrastructure or oper-ations. This paper presents a framework for estimating the PV hosting capacity at scale. First, we analyze computational, modeling and other key challenges of performing relevant, large-scale simulations, provided along with the experiences and lessons learned. Then, we develop two open-source Python-based software tools to conduct repeatable distribution analyses: the Distribution Integration Solution Cost Options (DISCO) for configuring and analyzing simulations and the Job Automation and Deployment Engine (JADE) for parallelizing jobs on high-performance computing clusters. A case study of hosting capacity estimation for the SMART-DS San Francisco (SFO) 2000+ synthetic feeders, is used to demonstrate the capability of the developed DISCO+JADE framework and tools. The framework and tools can help utilities assess the overall hosting capacity of their service territory, which can help them better plan for the overall upgrade costs to integrate more PV in the future. The experiences are shared to aid the tool users and researchers to conduct relevant studies and research.

distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Low Temperature Ignition Processes From a Nanosecond Pulsed Discharge at Quiescent Conditions

Recent interest in nonequilibrium plasma discharges as sources of ignition for the automotive industry has not yet been accompanied by the availability of dedicated models to perform this task in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) engine simulations. The need for a low-temperature plasma (LTP) ignition model has motivated much work in simulating these discharges from first principles. Most ignition models assume that an equilibrium plasma comprises the bulk of discharge kernels. LTP discharges, however, exhibit highly nonequilibrium behavior. In this work, a method to determine a consistent initialization of LTP discharge kernels for use in engine CFD codes like CONVERGE is proposed. The method utilizes first principles discharge simulations. Such an LTP kernel is introduced in a flammable mixture of air and fuel, and the subsequent plasma expansion and ignition simulation is carried out using a reacting flow solver with detailed chemistry. Finally, the proposed numerical approach is shown to produce results that agree with experimental observations regarding the ignitability of methane-air and ethylene-air mixtures by LTP discharges.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical simulation projects in micromagnetics with Jupyter

We report a case study where an existing materials science course was modified to include numerical simulation projects on the micromagnetic behavior of materials. The Ubermag micromagnetic simulation software package is used in order to solve problems computationally. The simulation software is controlled through the Python code in Jupyter notebooks. Our experience is that the self-paced problem-solving nature of the project work can facilitate a better in-depth exploration of the course contents. We discuss which aspects of the Ubermag and the project Jupyter ecosystem have been beneficial for the students' learning experience and which could be transferred to similar teaching activities in other subject areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ceramography and Thermal Modelling of Irradiated TRISO Particles using BISON

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of irradiated TRISO fuel particles from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program conducted at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of my internship. Failure Analysis using high-resolution microscopy was performed to characterize mechanisms in TRISO particle layers, including the kernel, buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC), silicon carbide (SiC), and outer pyrolytic carbon (OPyC) coatings. Failure modes were systematically classified. Thermal conductivity properties of each TRISO layer were evaluated through experimental measurements and computational models for use in BISON finite element code. Experimental thermal conductivity values ranged from 0.5 W/m·K for the buffer layer to 168 W/m·K for SiC, while BISON simulations provided averaged values of 0.57 W/m·K (buffer), 4.0 W/m·K (PyC layers), and 15.95 W/m·K (SiC). Temperature-dependent correlations from PARFUME were implemented for kernel thermal properties.

BISON↗
DOE OSTI2022

Universally Accessible Structural Data on Macromolecular Conformation, Assembly, and Dynamics by Small Angle X-Ray Scattering for DNA Repair Insights.

Structures provide a critical breakthrough step for biological analyses, and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful structural technique to study dynamic DNA repair proteins. As toxic and mutagenic repair intermediates need to be prevented from inadvertently harming the cell, DNA repair proteins often chaperone these intermediates through dynamic conformations, coordinated assemblies, and allosteric regulation. By measuring structural conformations in solution for both proteins, DNA, RNA, and their complexes, SAXS provides insight into initial DNA damage recognition, mechanisms for validation of their substrate, and pathway regulation. Here, we describe exemplary SAXS analyses of a DNA damage response protein spanning from what can be derived directly from the data to obtaining super resolution through the use of SAXS selection of atomic models. We outline strategies and tactics for practical SAXS data collection and analysis. Making these structural experiments in reach of any basic and clinical researchers who have protein, SAXS data can readily be collected at government-funded synchrotrons, typically at no cost for academic researchers. In addition to discussing how SAXS complements and enhances cryo-electron microscopy, X-ray crystallography, NMR, and computational modeling, we furthermore discuss taking advantage of recent advances in protein structure prediction in combination with SAXS analysis.

Chinnam, Naga Babu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of non-equilibrium ionization and excitation on radiation absorption in plasma plumes induced by ablation of metal targets with nanosecond laser pulses

Ionization and radiation absorption in nanosecond laser-induced plasma plumes are routinely modeled using the Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium ionization model (EQM). However, the equilibrium assumption can be inaccurate during the laser pulse when non-equilibrium effects significantly impact radiation absorption. In the present work, the EQM and non-equilibrium collisional-radiative model (CRM) are compared to reveal the effect of plasma non-equilibrium on radiation absorption in non-homogeneous plumes and degree of plasma shielding. Simulations of plume expansion induced by irradiation of a copper target in 1 atm argon background gas with a 10 ns Gaussian pulse at a fluence from 8 Jcm −2 to 14 Jcm −2 are performed with a hybrid computational model that couples a lumped particle direct simulation Monte Carlo method with either CRM or EQM. The simulations show that the EQM strongly underestimates the effects of ionization and radiation absorption compared to CRM and, contrary to the CRM, predict strong ionization of the background gas. The differences between the models are explained by the qualitatively different coupling between plume expansion and dynamics of ionization and exitation processes in the CRM and EQM under conditions when the characteristic times for most radiation- and electron-induced processes are longer than the pulse duration. The CRM-based predictions are also found to agree much better with available experimental data. In conclusion, these results indicate that the model of Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium cannot be used for reliable prediction of the degree of plasma shielding in plumes induced by nanosecond laser pulses or for processing results of spectroscopic measurements at early stages of expansion of such plumes.

Physics - Plasma physics↗