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At least 757 records · Page 42

Quantifying Boreal Forest Structure and Composition Using UAV Structure from Motion

The vast extent and inaccessibility of boreal forest ecosystems are barriers to routine monitoring of forest structure and composition. In this research, we bridge the scale gap between intensive but sparse plot measurements and extensive remote sensing studies by collecting forest inventory variables at the plot scale using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a structure from motion (SfM) approach. At 20 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots in interior Alaska, we acquired overlapping imagery and generated dense, 3D, RGB (red, green, blue) point clouds. We used these data to model forest type at the individual crown scale as well as subplot-scale tree density (TD), basal area (BA), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We achieved 85% cross-validation accuracy for five species at the crown level. Classification accuracy was maximized using three variables representing crown height, form, and color. Consistent with previous UAV-based studies, SfM point cloud data generated robust models of TD (r(sup 2) = 0.91), BA (r(sup 2) = 0.79), and AGB (r(sup 2) = 0.92), using a mix of plot- and crown-scale information. Precise estimation of TD required either segment counts or species information to differentiate black spruce from mixed white spruce plots. The accuracy of species-specific estimates of TD, BA, and AGB at the plot scale was somewhat variable, ranging from accurate estimates of black spruce TD (+/−1%) and aspen BA (−2%) to misallocation of aspen AGB (+118%) and white spruce AGB (−50%). These results convey the potential utility of SfM data for forest type discrimination in FIA plots and the remaining challenges to develop classification approaches for species-specific estimates at the plot scale that are more robust to segmentation error.

aboveground biomass↗

A Classification of Ice Crystal Habits Using Combined Lidar and Scanning Polarimeter Observations during the SEAC4RS Campaign

Using collocated NASA Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) and Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) data from the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) campaign, a new observational-based method was developed which uses a K-means clustering technique to classify ice crystal habit types into seven categories: column, plates, rosettes, spheroids, and three different type of irregulars. Intercompared with the collocated SPEC, Inc., Cloud Particle Imager (CPI) data, the frequency of the detected ice crystal habits from the proposed method presented in the study agrees within 5% with the CPI-reported values for columns, irregulars, rosettes, and spheroids, with more disagreement for plates. This study suggests that a detailed ice crystal habit retrieval could be applied to combined space-based lidar and polarimeter observations such as CALIPSO and POLDER in addition to future missions such as the Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (A-CCP).

Natalie Midzak↗

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions with the low-level wind shear. Consequently, precipitation processes can be more vigorous. For example,, the evaporative cooling is more than two times stronger in the lower troposphere with high CCN for the Pacific case. Sensitivity tests also suggest that ice processes are crucial for suppressing precipitation in the Oklahoma case with high CCN.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗

Final Technical Report

Southern Africa is the world’s largest emitter of biomass burning aerosols. Their westward transport over the remote southeast Atlantic ocean colocates some of the largest atmospheric loadings of absorbing aerosol with the least examined of the Earth’s major subtropical stratocumulus decks. Global aerosol model results highlight that the largest positive top-ofatmosphere forcing in the world occurs in the southeast Atlantic, but this region exhibits large differences in magnitude and sign between reputable models, in part because of high variability in the underlying model cloud distributions. Many uncertainties contribute to the highly variable model radiation fields: the aging of the shortwave-absorbing aerosol during transport, how much of the aerosol mixes into the cloudy boundary layer, and how the low clouds adjust to smokeradiation and smoke-cloud interactions. In addition, the ability of the biomass burning aerosol to absorb shortwave radiation is known to vary seasonally as the fuel type on land changes. LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a strategy to improve our understanding of aged carbonaceous aerosol, its seasonal evolution, and the mechanisms by which clouds adjust to the presence of the aerosol. The observational strategy centers on deploying the AMF1 cloud, aerosol, and atmospheric profiling instrumentation to Ascension Island, located within the trade-wind shallow cumulus regime (14.50W, 80S) 3000 km offshore of continental Africa. The location is within the latitude zone of the maximum outflow of aerosol, with the deepening boundary layer known to entrain free-tropospheric smoke. The primary activities for LASIC are: 1) to improve current knowledge on aged biomass burning aerosol and its radiative properties as a function of the seasonal cycle; 2) to use surface-based remote sensing to sensitively interrogate the atmosphere for the relative vertical location of aerosol and clouds; 3) to improve our understanding of the cloud adjustments to the presence of shortwave-absorbing aerosol within the vertical column, both through aerosol-radiation and through aerosol-cloud interactions; 4) to aid low cloud parameterization efforts for climate models. The measurements span June 1, 2016 - October 31, 2017, encompassing two July-October biomass burning seasons. The August-September, 2016, months include an Intensive Observing Period (IOP) with 8x/daily radiosondes. In 2017, from 16 August through 7 September, the UK FAAM Bae- 146 plane was deployed from Ascension, providing complementary data on the atmosphere’s vertical structure as part of the CLARIFY project, with similar scientific goals. The NASA ORACLES aircraft campaign, sharing similar objectives to LASIC, deployed from Namibia in September, 2016, and Sao Tome in August, 2017. The latter included a suitcase flight to Ascension spanning August 18-21. In 2017 a CAPS-SSA instrument belonging to Aerodyne was brought to Ascension, gathering data primarily for August, towards providing a second, independent measurement of aerosol absorption. Ascension Island is also an AERONET site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) Field Campaign Report

Southern Africa is the world’s largest emitter of biomass burning aerosols. Their westward transport over the remote southeast Atlantic Ocean co-locates some of the largest atmospheric loadings of absorbing aerosol with the least examined of the Earth’s major subtropical stratocumulus decks. Global aerosol model results highlight that the largest positive top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing in the world occurs in the southeast Atlantic, but this region exhibits large differences in magnitude and sign between reputable models, in part because of high variability in the underlying model cloud distributions. Many uncertainties contribute to the highly variable model radiation fields: the aging of the shortwave-absorbing aerosol during transport, how much of the aerosol mixes into the cloudy boundary layer, and how the low clouds adjust to smoke-radiation and smoke-cloud interactions. In addition, the ability of the biomass burning aerosol to absorb shortwave radiation is known to vary seasonally as the fuel type on land changes. LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a strategy to improve our understanding of aged carbonaceous aerosol, its seasonal evolution, and the mechanisms by which clouds adjust to the presence of the aerosol. The observational strategy centers on deploying the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) cloud, aerosol, and atmospheric profiling instrumentation to Ascension Island, located within the trade-wind shallow cumulus regime (14.50W, 80S) 3000 km offshore of continental Africa. The location is within the latitude zone of the maximum outflow of aerosol, with the deepening boundary layer known to entrain free-tropospheric smoke. The primary activities for LASIC are: 1) to improve current knowledge on aged biomass burning aerosol and its radiative properties as a function of the seasonal cycle; 2) to use surface-based remote sensing to sensitively interrogate the atmosphere for the relative vertical location of aerosol and clouds; 3) to improve our understanding of the cloud adjustments to the presence of shortwave-absorbing aerosol within the vertical column, both through aerosol-radiation and through aerosol-cloud interactions; 4) to aid low cloud parameterization efforts for climate models. The measurements span June 1, 2016-October 31, 2017, encompassing two July-October biomass burning seasons. The August-September, 2016, months include an intensive operational period (IOP) with 8x/daily radiosondes. In 2017, from 16 August through 7 September, the United Kingdom Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 plane was deployed from Ascension, providing complementary data on the atmosphere’s vertical structure as part of the Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing (CLARIFY) project, with similar scientific goals. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Observations of Clouds above Aerosols and their Interactions (ORACLES) aircraft campaign, sharing similar objectives to LASIC, deployed from Namibia in September, 2016, and Sao Tome in August, 2017. The latter included a suitcase flight to Ascension spanning August 18-21. In 2017 a cavity-attenuated phase shift single-scattering albedo (CAPS-SSA) instrument belonging to Aerodyne was brought to Ascension, gathering data primarily for August, towards providing a second, independent measurement of aerosol absorption. Ascension Island is also an Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) site.

biomass burning, aerosols, black carbon, boundary-↗

The R -process Alliance: The Peculiar Chemical Abundance Pattern of RAVE J183013.5-455510

In this work, we report on the spectroscopic analysis of RAVE J183013.5-455510, an extremely metal-poor star, highly enhanced in CNO, and with discernible contributions from the rapid neutron-capture process. There is no evidence of binarity for this object. At [Fe/H] = –3.57, this star has one of the lowest metallicities currently observed, with 18 measured abundances of neutron-capture elements. The presence of Ba, La, and Ce abundances above the solar system $\textit{r}$-process predictions suggests that there must have been a non-standard source of $\textit{r}$-process elements operating at such low metallicities. One plausible explanation is that this enhancement originates from material ejected at unusually high velocities in a neutron star merger event. We also explore the possibility that the neutron-capture elements were produced during the evolution and explosion of a rotating massive star. In addition, based on comparisons with yields from zero-metallicity faint supernova, we speculate that RAVE J1830-4555 was formed from a gas cloud pre-enriched by both progenitor types. From analysis based on Gaia DR2 measurements, we show that this star has orbital properties similar to the Galactic metal-weak thick-disk stellar population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Soil, water, and vegetation conditions in south Texas

The author has identified the following significant results. Software development for a computer-aided crop and soil survey system is nearing completion. Computer-aided variety classification accuracies using LANDSAT-1 MSS data for a 600 hectare citrus farm were 83% for Redblush grapefruit and 91% for oranges. These accuracies indicate that there is good potential for computer-aided inventories of grapefruit and orange citrus orchards with LANDSAT-type MSS data. Mean digital values of clouds differed statistically from those for crop, soil, and water entities, and those for cloud shadows were enough lower than sunlit crop and soil to be distinguishable. The standard errors of estimate for the calibration of computer compatible tape coordinate system (pixel and record) to earth coordinate system (longitude and latitude) for 6 LANDSAT scenes ranged from 0.72 to 1.50 pixels and from 0.58 to 1.75 records.

Wiegand, C. L.↗

Does the far-infrared/radio correlation in spiral galaxies extend to the spatial domain

A comparison is made between the spatial distribution of the thermal far-infrared and non-thermal radio emission of nearby spiral galaxies. This is done in an attempt to improve our understanding of the well known correlation between the integrated Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) far-infrared and radio emission of spiral galaxies, e.g., de Jong et al., 1985, Helou et al., 1986. A physical explanation for this correlation is not straight forward due to the ambiguous nature of the origin of the far-infrared and radio, and the dependence of the non-thermal radio on each galaxies' magnetic field. It is now widely believed that the infrared emission detected in the longer wavelength IRAS wavebands (less than 50 microns) arises from at least two distinct sources, e.g., Cox et al., 1986, Persson and Helou, 1987: (1) a warm (T approx. 40 K) component associated with dense dust clouds heated by embedded O and B type stars; and (2) a cooler (T approx. 20 K) component associated with diffuse dust distributed throughout the interstellar matter (ISM) heated by the interstellar radiation field. A link between the warm component and the radio via electrons originating in Type II supernovae (the ultimate fate of many of the O and B type stars responsible for the warm component) has been suggested by numerous authors. The supporting evidence is scarce and inconclusive. Researchers have attempted to provide some insight into the problem by looking at the spatial distribution of the different components in some nearby spiral galaxies, starting with the face-on spiral M51. The source of the far-infrared data is the IRAS chopped photometric channel (CPC) instrument. Warm and cold far-infrared fluxes integrated over all wavelengths and the radio intensity at two frequencies are plotted against radius. All plots are to a common resolution of 100 arcsec, the radio data originating from the Cambridge Low Frequency Synthesis Telescope (151 MHz) and the VLA (1490 MHz, from Condon, 1987). The warm and cold regions are assumed to be representedby a single galactic wide temperatures of 50 K and 20 K respectively. A dust emissivity of 1 has been assumed. The form of the plots is little effected by varying these assumptions. The radio and cold component curves appear to follow each other most closely, in contradiction to the simple OB star/type II supernovae hypothesis.

Howarth, Neil A.↗

Thermal Water Vapor Emission from Shocked Regions in Orion

Using the Long Wavelength Spectrometer on board the Infrared Space Observatory, we have observed thermal water vapor emission from a roughly circular field of view approximately 75" in diameter centered on the Orion BN-KL region. The Fabry-Perot line strengths, line widths, and spectral line shifts observed in eight transitions between 71 and 125 micron show good agreement with models of thermal emission arising from a molecular cloud subjected to a magnetohydrodynamic C-type shock. Both the breadth and the relative strengths of the observed lines argue for emission from a shock rather than from warm quiescent gas in the Orion core. Although one of the eight transitions appears anomalously strong and may be subject to the effects of radiative pumping, the other seven indicate an H2O/H2 abundance ratio on the order of 5 x 10(exp -4) and a corresponding gas-phase oxygen-to-hydrogen abundance ratio on the order of 4 x 10(exp -4). Given current estimates of the interstellar, gas-phase, oxygen and carbon abundances in the solar vicinity, this value is consistent with theoretical shock models that predict the conversion into water of all the gas-phase oxygen that is not bound as CO. The overall cooling provided by rotational transitions of H2O in this region appears to be comparable to the cooling through rotational lines of CO but is an order of magnitude lower than cooling through H2 emission. However, the model that best fits our observations shows cooling by H2O and CO dominant in that portion of the postshock region where temperatures are below approximately 800 K and neither vibrational nor rotational radiative cooling by H2 is appreciable.

Harwitt, Martin↗

The Effects of Lightning NO(x) Production during the July 21 EULINOX Storm studied with a 3-D Cloud-scale Chemical Transport Model

The July 21,1998 thunderstonn observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics, and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NO(x) production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NO(x) production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N per yr. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NO(x), on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NO(x), maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv per day at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NO(x) causes decreased net ozone production.

Ott, Lesley E.↗

High Resolution Nature Runs and the Big Data Challenge

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center is undertaking a series of very computationally intensive Nature Runs and a downscaled reanalysis. The nature runs use the GEOS-5 as an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) while the reanalysis uses the GEOS-5 in Data Assimilation mode. This paper will present computational challenges from three runs, two of which are AGCM and one is downscaled reanalysis using the full DAS. The nature runs will be completed at two surface grid resolutions, 7 and 3 kilometers and 72 vertical levels. The 7 km run spanned 2 years (2005-2006) and produced 4 PB of data while the 3 km run will span one year and generate 4 BP of data. The downscaled reanalysis (MERRA-II Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications) will cover 15 years and generate 1 PB of data. Our efforts to address the big data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS), a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service that is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by cloud computing. In this presentation, we will describe two projects that demonstrate this shift. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over MERRA reanalysis data collection by bringing together the high-performance computing, scalable data management, and a domain-specific climate data services API. NASA's High-Performance Science Cloud (HPSC) is an example of the type of compute-storage fabric required to support CAaaS. The HPSC comprises a high speed Infinib and network, high performance file systems and object storage, and a virtual system environments specific for data intensive, science applications. These technologies are providing a new tier in the data and analytic services stack that helps connect earthbound, enterprise-level data and computational resources to new customers and new mobility-driven applications and modes of work. In our experience, CAaaS lowers the barriers and risk to organizational change, fosters innovation and experimentation, and provides the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing needs

big data analysis↗

Spatial Correlations of Anomaly Time Series of AIRS Version-6 Land Surface Skin Temperatures with the Nino-4 Index

The AIRS Science Team Version-6 data set is a valuable resource for meteorological studies. Quality Controlled earth's surface skin temperatures are produced on a 45 km x 45 km spatial scale under most cloud cover conditions. The same retrieval algorithm is used for all surface types under all conditions. This study used eleven years of AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature and cloud cover products to show that land surface skin temperatures have decreased significantly in some areas and increased significantly in other areas over the period September 2002 through August 2013. These changes occurred primarily at 1:30 PM but not at 1:30 AM. Cooling land areas contained corresponding increases in cloud cover over this time period, with the reverse being true for warming land areas. The cloud cover anomaly patterns for a given month are affected significantly by El Nino/La Nina activity, and anomalies in cloud cover are a driving force behind anomalies in land surface skin temperature.

Spatial correlations↗

Sub-cloud moist entropy curvature as a predictor for changes in the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation

Convective Quasi-Equilibrium (CQE) may be a useful framework for understanding the precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) response to CO2-induced warming. To explore this proposition, a suite of aquaplanet simulations with a slab ocean from TRACMIP (the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project) is analyzed. A linear relationship between P-E and the curvature of sub-cloud moist entropy, a marker for the spatial distribution of sub-cloud moist energy and onset of a tropical direct overturning circulation under CQE conditions, is shown to exist across many of the TRACMIP simulations. Furthermore, this linear relationship is a skillful predictor of changes in P-E in response to CO2-induced warming. The curvature metric also shows improvement in predicting P-E changes compared to the simpler method of relating P-E directly to the sub-cloud moist entropy field or a simple ‘wet-get-wetter’ type null hypothesis, especially on seasonal and shorter timescales. Using fixed relative humidity in the curvature metric and sub-cloud moist entropy degrades their ability to predict P-E changes, implying that both temperature and relative humidity changes in the boundary layer are important for characterizing future precipitation changes. To understand why the curvature metric is a skillful predictor of hydrological changes, a moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis is performed, which shows that MSE divergence on sub-daily timescales is well parameterized as a downgradient diffusive process. Additionally, this transient MSE divergence has a similar structure to the curvature term. Assuming that the transient MSE divergence is related to convective activity, these findings suggest that the theoretical underpinning of the linear relationship between the curvature term and P-E resides in cloud processes that both remove spatial gradients of sub-cloud moist entropy and generate precipitation at sub-seasonal and shorter timescales.

aquaplanet simulations↗

Statistical Theory on the Functional Form of Cloud Particle Size Distributions

Abstract Several functional forms of cloud particle size distributions (PSDs) have been used in numerical modeling and remote sensing retrieval studies of clouds and precipitation, including exponential, gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions. However, there is no satisfying theoretical explanation as to why certain distribution forms preferentially occur instead of others. Intuitively, the analytical form of a PSD can be derived by directly solving the general dynamic equation, but no analytical solutions have been found yet. Instead of a process-level approach, the use of the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) for determining the theoretical form of PSDs from the perspective of system is examined here. MaxEnt theory states that the probability density function with the largest information entropy among a group satisfying the given properties of the variable should be chosen. Here, the issue of variability under coordinate transformations that arises using the Gibbs–Shannon definition of entropy is identified, and the use of the concept of relative entropy to avoid these problems is discussed. Focusing on cloud physics, the four-parameter generalized gamma distribution is proposed as the analytical form of a PSD using the principle of maximum (relative) entropy with assumptions on power-law relations among state variables, scale invariance, and a further constraint on the expectation of one state variable (e.g., bulk water mass). The four-parameter generalized gamma distribution is very flexible to accommodate various type of constraints that could be assumed for cloud PSDs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗