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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Computed Tomography Scanning and Petrophysical Measurements of Oriskany Core across Eastern Ohio

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia were used to characterize core material from three Ohio wells. These wells are listed below along with their American Petroleum Institute (API) and Ohio Geological Survey (OGS) identification numbers: - New York Central System 1 well (API 34085200170000, OGS Core 855) - Herren Well (API 34099201650000, OGS Core 2914) - Garvin-King Well (API 34121215610000, OGS Core 2939) The primary impetus of this work was to capture a detailed digital representation of the available core from all three wells. The collaboration between the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) NETL and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological Survey enables other research entities to access information about this potential carbon storage location and its surrounding formations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Modeling the Relationship Between Porosity and Permeability During Oxidation of Ablative Materials

The ablative materials used in thermal protection systems (TPS) undergo oxidation during atmospheric entry which leads to an in-depth change in both permeability and porosity. These properties have a significant affect on heat transfer in a TPS during entry. X-ray micro-tomography has provided 3D images capturing the micro-structure of TPS materials. In this study, we use micro-tomography based simulations to create high-fidelity models relating permeability to porosity during oxidation of FiberForm, the carbon fiber preform of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) often used as a TPS material. The goal of this study is to inform full-scale models and reduce uncertainty in TPS modeling.

Ablativ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Energy–Efficient Direct Air Capture with Photochemically–Driven CO 2 Release and Solvent Regeneration

The intensive energy demands associated with solvent regeneration and CO 2 release in current direct air capture (DAC) technologies makes their deployment at the massive scales (GtCO 2 /year) required to positively impact the climate economically unfeasible. This challenge underscores the critical need to develop new DAC processes with significantly reduced energy costs. Recently, we developed a new approach to photochemically drive efficient release of CO 2 through an intermolecular proton transfer reaction by exploiting the unique properties of an indazole metastable-state photoacid (mPAH), opening a new avenue towards energy efficient on-demand CO 2 release and solvent regeneration using abundant solar energy instead of heat. In this Concept Article, we will describe the principle of our photochemically-driven CO 2 release approach for solvent-based DAC systems, discuss the essential prerequisites and conditions to realize this cyclable CO 2 release chemistry under ambient conditions. We outline the key findings of our approach, discuss the latest developments from other research laboratories, detail approaches used to monitor DAC systems in situ, and highlight experimental procedures for validating its feasibility. Finally, we conclude with a summary and outlook into the immediate challenges that must be addressed in order to fully exploit this novel photochemically-driven approach to DAC solvent regeneration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Palladium-Percolated Networks Enabled by Low Loadings of Branched Nanorods for Enhanced H 2 Separations

Nanoparticles (NPs) at high loadings are often used in mixed matrix membranes (MMMs) to improve gas separation properties, but they can lead to defects and poor processability that impede membrane fabrication. Herein, it is demonstrated that branched nanorods (NRs) with controlled aspect ratios can significantly reduce the required loading to achieve superior gas separation properties while maintaining excellent processability, as demonstrated by the dispersion of palladium (Pd) NRs in polybenzimidazole for H 2 /CO 2 separation. Increasing the aspect ratio from 1 for NPs to 40 for NRs decreases the percolation threshold volume fraction by a factor of 30, from 0.35 to 0.011. An MMM with percolated networks formed by Pd NRs at a volume fraction of 0.039 exhibits H 2 permeability of 110 Barrer and H 2 /CO 2 selectivity of 31 when challenged with simulated syngas at 200 °C, surpassing Robeson's upper bound. In conclusion, this work highlights the advantage of NRs over NPs and nanowires and shows that right-sizing nanofillers in MMMs is critical to construct highly sieving pathways at minimal loadings. In conclusion, this work paves the way for this general feature to be applied across materials systems for a variety of chemical separations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating CO 2 mitigation strategies in SAF biorefineries: Techno-economic and life cycle analysis

The aviation sector requires scalable decarbonization strategies, and lignocellulosic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents a promising pathway. This study comparatively evaluates the techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) of three CO 2 management strategies integrated within a U.S.-based gasification–Fischer–Tropsch SAF biorefinery: (i) catalytic hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methanol, (ii) geological CO 2 sequestration, and (iii) mineralization to sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ). Techno-economic analysis indicates that methanol synthesis requires approximately 26% higher capital investment and 33% higher operating costs than mineralization. Although methanol co-production generates the highest gross revenue, NaHCO 3 production reduces the SAF minimum selling price by approximately 38% relative to both methanol synthesis and geological sequestration pathways, reflecting a more balanced cost allocation through mineral co-product valorization. Geological sequestration lowers operating costs by nearly 50% compared with methanol synthesis but remains highly dependent on carbon credit mechanisms. LCA reveals substantial divergence in climate performance. Relative to methanol synthesis, sequestration improves net greenhouse gas performance by approximately 163%, transitioning the system from net-positive to net-negative emissions. Mineralization further enhances carbon mitigation, achieving roughly 85% greater carbon reduction than sequestration and over sixfold improvement relative to methanol synthesis within the defined system boundary. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen price, co-product market value, and process emissions as dominant drivers. Under baseline assumptions, CO 2 mineralization is found to offer the most balanced pathway.

Carbon capture and storage↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuum laser absorption spectroscopy of C 2 (a 3 Π u ) in a sublimating cloud of carbon black

A direct optical absorption diagnostic has been developed for rotationally resolved measurements of diatomic carbon (a 3 Π u →d 3 Π g (0,0) and (1,1)) at a repetition rate of 525 kHz and resolution of 7.3 pm over the range of 511.1–514.1 nm. The diagnostic utilizes a high-power pulsed continuum laser light source dispersed in a spectrograph and imaged by a high-speed camera. Measurements have been performed that capture the temporal evolution of C 2 number density and temperature of a cloud of carbon black sublimating in shock heated gas at high temperature and pressure (T = 5500 K, P = 3.7 atm). A simultaneous light absorption measurement of the condensed phase enables comparisons of the gaseous C 2 number density to the condensed phase mass. The continuum laser absorption diagnostic is applied to C 2 in this work but shows promise in being a simple “drop-in” system for absorption spectroscopy in the visible range at rapid repetition rates and high dispersion, filling an important gap for laser diagnostic systems.

Willhardt, Colton Dean [Univ. of Illinois at Urban↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling accurate chemical modeling of shocked energetic materials using a machine learning interatomic potential

Understanding the complex chemistry of organic materials under dynamic compression is important for many applications, but it is challenging due to the large number of reactions occurring at various time scales. Here, in this study, we develop a machine learning potential based on Chebyshev polynomials to study the insensitive energetic material 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) under detonation. We discuss a strategy for constructing diverse training data needed to capture the complex chemistry of TATB. Our potential demonstrates strong transferability across a wide range of thermodynamic conditions and other explosives, enabling accurate and reliable chemical modeling of organic materials under extreme conditions. The efficiency of our approach allows for simulations over several nanoseconds and for large system sizes, providing detailed insights into the chemistry of shocked TATB. The model accurately reproduces experimental Hugoniot equation of state data, and our simulations reveal the rapid formation of nitrogen-rich carbon clusters following shock. The methods and datasets developed here offer a robust framework for accurate chemical modeling of other shocked organic energetic materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Timelapse camera images from Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM 64, Kougarok Fire Complex (KFC, also referred to as the Garfield Fire Site), and Teller MM 27 NGEE-Arctic field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, captured from August 2021 to July 2022. Ten Wingscape Timelapse Pro cameras, and twenty seven Power-interval Camera Automation Modules (PiCAMs) designed by Brookhaven National Laboratory's Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Technology (TEST) group were deployed targeting patches of low and tall shrubs (including Alnus sp. and Salix sp.) and general vegetation and landscape views. Images from Wingscape cameras were recorded at hourly intervals from 11 AM to 2 PM, and images from PiCAMs were recorded at 5 hourly intervals from 12 AM to 8 PM, continuously for 12 months and capture vegetation phenology, snow accumulation and snow melt events. This data package includes images (*.jpg), organized by site and camera ID, and metadata with details of the cameras used, number of images recorded, start and end dates, GPS locations and example fields of view. Additional information available in *.pdf and *.csv files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fractured Earth Laboratory

Researchers at Los Alamos apply extensive knowledge and expertise through the Los Alamos Fractured Earth Laboratory to measure elusive rock fracture, chemical, cementing, and flow properties with purposebuilt systems that apply new and emerging measurement approaches. Unlike traditional rock mechanics laboratories, this unique laboratory capability allows researchers to accurately measure and observe fracture growth and transient flow in rock samples with microtomography at subsurface conditions. This provides critical information to solve complex and challenging subsurface fracture and flow process problems. Los Alamos is seeking to offer the Fractured Earth Laboratory’s measurement capabilities and expertise to researchers and developers in the oil and gas; geothermal; and the carbon capture, sequestration, and utilization industries. By utilizing the Fractured Earth Laboratory’s capabilities, researchers in these industries will have access to tools diagnose problems and develop solutions to subsurface issues.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Abstract for CRADA among National Energy Technology Laboratory, Research Triangle Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory (AGMT-0921)

Through the Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI 2 ) project, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) (herein collectively “the CCSI 2 team”) will collaborate through a CRADA with the Research Triangle Institute (RTI). This collaboration will develop a modeling framework of RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent (NAS) process using physical and thermodynamic data and models previously developed by RTI. RTI will provide existing models and data on its NAS system to inform the model construction effort by the CCSI 2 team.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Sensitivity, Low Power Nano Sensors and Devices for Chemical Sensing

The chemical sensor market has been projected to grow to better than $40 billion dollars worldwide within the next 10 years. Some of the primary motivations to develop nanostructured chemical sensors are monitoring and control of environmental pollution; improved diagnostics for consumption; improvement in measurement precision and accuracy; and improved detection limits for Homeland security, battlefield environments, and process and quality control of industrial applications. In each of these applications, there is demand for sensitivity, selectivity and stability of environmental and biohazard detection and capture beyond what is currently commercially available. Nanotechnology offers the ability to work at the molecular level, atom by atom, to create large structures with fundamentally new molecular organization. It is essentially concerned with materials, devices, and systems whose structures and components exhibit novel and significantly improved physical, chemical and biological properties, phenomena, and process control due to their nanoscale size. One such nanotechnology-enabled chemical sensor has been developed at NASA Ames leveraging nanostructures, such as single walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) and metal oxide nanobelts or nanowires, as a sensing medium bridging a pair of interdigitated electrodes (IDE) realized through a silicon-based microfabrication and micromachining technique. The DE fingers are fabricated on a silicon substrate using standard photolithography and thin film metallization techniques. It is noteworthy that the fabrication techniques employed are not confined to the silicon substrate. Through spin casting and careful substrate selection (i.e. clothing, glass, polymer, etc.), additional degrees of freedom can be exploited to enhance sensitivity or to conform to unique applications. Both in-situ growth of nanostructured materials and casting of nanostructured dispersions were used to produce analogous chemical sensing devices.

Li, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface Roughness Effects from Additive Manufacturing in High Efficiency Gas Turbine Combustion Systems

In the past, clean combustion systems were characterized by high system development costs due to growing complexity and escalating manufacturing costs from conventional manufacturing processes. As a result, high efficiency concepts are difficult to design and more difficult to be cost-effectively manufactured. In recent years, with the introduction of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, the rapid prototyping and mass production processes of clean combustion systems are promising to be significantly simplified with significant reduction in terms of engine manufacturing cost and engine energy cost. Compared with conventional manufacturing built parts, the AM process enabled a simpler design to be adopted for the nozzle, reducing the number of required braze and weld joints from twenty-five to just five. The resulting nozzle was 25% lighter and five times more durable and contributed to a 15% reduction in fuel burn in comparison with the previous model produced. Applying these improvements to a fleet of 5,000 turbofan engines at 150 kN thrust would result in fuel cost savings of $ \$ $6B annually (at $ \$ $5/gallon Jet-A fuel price, 700 gallon/hour fuel consumption rate, and 2,300 operational hours per year), and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million tons per year. These advances support core Department of Energy (DOE) missions in energy efficiency, improving productivity, and environmental sustainability. Maximizing the benefit of these new capabilities will require high prediction capability of high speed turbulent flow with wall modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES). GE Aviation maintains that advanced simulation technology and supercomputing is required in order to provide the appropriate boundary conditions to realize the maximum potential of AM and Ceramic Matrix Composite to reduce cooling flow, a first order penalty on the Brayton cycle. The algorithm developed using the ANSYS/Fluent software would provide the foundation for entirely new avenues of research and development with potential multi-billion dollar impact to the US economy, and significant reduction in carbon based emissions across the aerospace and power generation industries. The formulation of this iWLES (integral wall model for LES) is generic and allows to capture the changes in flow dynamics that have a significant impact on the wall bounded flow characteristics, such as swirler effective area, bulk swirl number, local pressure distribution, exit velocity profile, and turbulence kinetic energy profile. A periodic channel flow with rough flat plate is simulated using LES (Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity) model to verify the implementation of iWLES in the Fluent User Defined Function (UDF). As the flow fields are highly sensitive due to surface roughness of the wall bounded flows in the combustion systems, there is significant potential to conduct further LES studies focusing on the turbulence boundary layer interaction. Accurately capturing near wall physics will elucidate the impact of rough surfaces on combustor flow and aero-thermal interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface Roughness Effects from Additive Manufacturing in High Efficiency Gas Turbine Combustion Systems

In the past, clean combustion systems were characterized by high system development costs due to growing complexity and escalating manufacturing costs from conventional manufacturing processes. As a result, high efficiency concepts are difficult to design and more difficult to be cost-effectively manufactured. In recent years, with the introduction of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, the rapid prototyping and mass production processes of clean combustion systems are promising to be significantly simplified with significant reduction in terms of engine manufacturing cost and engine energy cost. Compared with conventional manufacturing built parts, the AM process enabled a simpler design to be adopted for the nozzle, reducing the number of required braze and weld joints from twenty-five to just five. The resulting nozzle was 25% lighter and five times more durable and contributed to a 15% reduction in fuel burn in comparison with the previous model produced. Applying these improvements to a fleet of 5,000 turbofan engines at 150 kN thrust would result in fuel cost savings of $6B annually (at $5/gallon Jet-A fuel price, 700 gallon/hour fuel consumption rate, and 2,300 operational hours per year),and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million tons per year. These advances support core Department of Energy (DOE)missions in energy efficiency, improving productivity, and environmental sustainability. Maximizing the benefit of these new capabilities will require high prediction capability of high speed turbulent flow with wall modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES). GE Aviation maintains that advanced simulation technology and supercomputing is required in order to provide the appropriate boundary conditions to realize the maximum potential of AM and Ceramic Matrix Composite to reduce cooling flow, a first order penalty on the Brayton cycle. The algorithm developed using the ANSYS/Fluent software would provide the foundation for entirely new avenues of research and development with potential multi-billion dollar impact to the US economy, and significant reduction in carbon based emissions across the aerospace and power generation industries. The formulation of this iWLES (integral wall model for LES) is generic and allows to capture the changes in flow dynamics that have a significant impact on the wall bounded flow characteristics, such as swirler effective area, bulk swirl number, local pressure distribution, exit velocity profile, and turbulence kinetic energy profile. A periodic channel flow with rough flat plate is simulated using LES (Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity) model to verify the implementation of iWLES in the Fluent User Defined Function (UDF). As the flow fields are highly sensitive due to surface roughness of the wall bounded flows in the combustion systems, there is significant potential to conduct further LES studies focusing on the turbulence boundary layer interaction. Accurately capturing near wall physics will elucidate the impact of rough surfaces on combustor flow and aero-thermal interactions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable simulation of coupled adsorption and transport of methane in confined complex porous media with density preconditioning

The growing significance of shales and tight formations in the transition to less carbon-intensive and clean energy drives the research endeavor to understand the physics of gas flow within these systems. However, shales are composed of massively heterogeneous physical and chemical features. Most nano-sized pores connect to millimeter-scale fractures, leading to multiscale transport. These nano-scale pore throats demonstrate non-classical flow behavior, such as non-negligible slip velocities and adsorbed gas layers at the boundary. As a result, classical computational fluid dynamics models do not capture the physics. In this work, we develop a coupling scheme for the multiple-relaxation-time (MRT) lattice Boltzmann (LB) method that integrates the Peng-Robinson equation of state into a pseudo-potential interaction model to capture the physics of methane flow in irregular networks of channels that represent nano-scale porous media. We use atomistic simulations to calibrate and validate our model in slit nano-channels. We propose a preconditioning scheme to initialize the coupled transport and adsorption simulation of methane in complex porous media. The results of this implementation of LB agree with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. We then scale up the LB implementation through vectorization and indirect addressing. We parallelize it using Message Passing Interface (MPI) and OpenMP frameworks to simulate transport and adsorption in complex media with a million lattices. Additionally, we analyze the differences between coupled and transport-only simulations in two case studies and show that considering phase behavior, i.e., adsorption, can significantly change the flow behavior. This work constitutes an important step towards bridging the gap between molecular flow and system-scale behavior of complex disordered porous media.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Effect of Explicit Polarizability on Models of Carbon Dioxide Solvation in Ionic Liquids

Ionic liquids are an important possible carbon capture material because of their anomalously high sorption selectivity for carbon dioxide over other gases common in air. Many research groups have investigated the molecular origins of this property and provided important insights, including using 1D and 2D-IR spectroscopy. Molecular dynamics simulations have been indispensable to the interpretation of these experiments. In prior molecular dynamics simulation work, charge-scaled force fields have typically been used to provide a mean-field treatment of effects vital to ionic liquid systems such as charge transfer and polarization. Here, we compare models of carbon dioxide solvated in ionic liquids with explicit polarization to models of the same with implicit polarizability through charge-scaling. We calculate structural, dynamical, and spectroscopic properties, and make comparisons to the same items measured in experiment. In this study, we focus on two ionic liquids: 1-butyl-3- methylimidazolium (BMIM + ) paired with bis(trifluoromethane sulfonyl imide) (Tf 2 N − ) and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium (BMIM+) paired with hexafluorophosphate (PF 6 − ). We find that many structural, dynamical, and spectroscopic properties are changed when polarization is modeled explicitly. We also find that explicit polarizability softens local ion cages around the carbon dioxide and that the long-time diffusion of the carbon dioxide is gated by the reorganization of the ionic liquid molecules. Comparisons to experiment show modest improvement of many observables compared with experiment for the explicitly polarizable model over the charge-scaled model. Overall, our results show that charge-scaled force fields are likely sufficient to compute spectroscopic properties of carbon dioxide in ionic liquids and suggest some interpretive rules for understanding their structural and dynamical properties. Those using charge-scaled force fields should generally assume that the ion cages around solutes such as carbon dioxide are too stiff and cation-rich in their models and adjust their interpretations and predictions accordingly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2001

Highly Effective, Low Toxicity, Low Environmental Impact Total Flooding Fire Suppressants

Halon 1301 (CF3Br) has been used for decades as the primary fire suppression agent for areas where powder agents cannot be used because of concerns for sensitive equipment. Halon 1301 is an excellent extinguishing agent, effective at about 3% in air and quite non-toxic. It has an effective exposure limit much greater than its extinguishing concentration, so it can be used in normally occupied areas. The ability of a chemical to destroy stratospheric ozone is its ozone-depletion potential (ODP). ODP is the amount of ozone destroyed per pound of a chemical, relative to the standard CFC-11 with an ODP = 1.0. Because halons have been implicated in stratospheric ozone depletion, their production was stopped at the end of 1995 under the provisions of the Montreal Protocol plus later amendments. In the US, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, Presidential directives, and DoD Directive 6050.9 implemented this phaseout. These regulations and penalties have provided strong incentives for US businesses to decrease CFC use. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 mandates high Federal taxes on CFCs and halons, designed to price them out of the market. The taxes also capture for the government the windfall profits that would otherwise go to producers as scarcity drives up prices. Several replacements have been developed for Halon 1301. One is carbon dioxide, which has been used as a firefighting agent for many years. However, a high concentration of carbon dioxide is necessary to inert fuels. The effective concentration for inerting with carbon dioxide is approximately 29%, which is above the concentration lethal to humans. HFC-227ea is being used extensively to replace Halon 1301 systems in nominally occupied areas and some normally unoccupied areas. However, since the effective concentration of HFC-227ea is about three to four times that of Halon 1301 the extinguishing systems have to be larger and new extinguishing systems have to be installed. HFC-125 is also being sold as an extinguishing agent (Nimitz). It has problems similar to HFC-227ea, with a greater concentration needed for effectiveness and the need to use a larger system. This is a particularly onerous penalty in aircraft and spacecraft, where weight and space are extremely important, and substitution is often impossible in existing aircraft due to space limitations.

Glass, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs

As power systems around the world are rapidly evolving to achieve decarbonization objectives, it is crucial that power system planners and operators use appropriate models and tools to analyze and address the associated challenges. This paper provides a detailed overview of the properties of power market models in the context of the clean energy transition. We review common power market model methodologies, their readiness for low- and zero-carbon grids, and new power market trends. Based on the review, we suggest model improvements and new designs to increase modeling capabilities for future grids. The paper highlights key modeling concepts related to power system flexibility, with a particular focus on hydropower and energy storage, as well as the representation of grid services, price formation, temporal structure, and the importance of uncertainty. We find that a changing resource mix, market restructuring, and growing price uncertainty require more precise modeling techniques to adequately capture the new technology constraints and the dynamics of future power markets. In particular, models must adequately represent resource opportunity costs, multi-horizon flexibility, and energy storage capabilities across the full range of grid services. Moreover, at the system level, it is increasingly important to consider sub-hourly time resolution, enhanced uncertainty representation, and introduce co-optimization for dual market clearing of energy and grid services. Likewise, models should capture interdependencies between multiple energy carriers and demand sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%–30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%–40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%–20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗