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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology with persistent homology: a Fisher forecast

Abstract Persistent homology naturally addresses the multi-scale topological characteristics of the large-scale structure as a distribution of clusters, loops, and voids. We apply this tool to the dark matter halo catalogs from theQuijotesimulations, and build a summary statistic for comparison with the joint power spectrum and bispectrum statistic regarding their information content on cosmological parameters and primordial non-Gaussianity. Through a Fisher analysis, we find that constraints from persistent homology are tighter for 8 out of the 10 parameters by margins of 13–50%. The complementarity of the two statistics breaks parameter degeneracies, allowing for a further gain in constraining power when combined. We run a series of consistency checks to consolidate our results, and conclude that our findings motivate incorporating persistent homology into inference pipelines for cosmological survey data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precise relative magnitude measurement improves fracture characterization during hydraulic fracturing

SUMMARY Microseismic monitoring is an important technique to obtain detailed knowledge of in-situ fracture size and orientation during stimulation to maximize fluid flow throughout the rock volume and optimize production. Furthermore, considering that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes empirically follows a power law (i.e. Gutenberg–Richter), the accuracy of microseismic event magnitude distributions is potentially crucial for seismic risk management. In this study, we analyse microseismicity observed during four hydraulic fracture treatments of the legacy Cotton Valley experiment in 1997 at the Carthage gas field of East Texas, where fractures were activated at the base of the sand-shale Upper Cotton Valley formation. We perform waveform cross-correlation to detect similar event clusters, measure relative amplitude from aligned waveform pairs with a principal component analysis, then measure precise relative magnitudes. The new magnitudes significantly reduce the deviations between magnitude differences and relative amplitudes of event pairs. This subsequently reduces the magnitude differences between clusters located at different depths. Reduction in magnitude differences between clusters suggests that some attenuation-related biases could be effectively mitigated with relative magnitude measurements. The maximum likelihood method is applied to understand the magnitude frequency distributions and quantify the seismogenic index of the clusters. Statistical analyses with new magnitudes suggest that fractures that are more favourably oriented for shear failure have lower b-value and higher seismogenic index, suggesting higher potential for relatively larger earthquakes, rather than fractures subparallel to maximum horizontal principal stress orientation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Information-theoretic astrophysical uncertainties in the effective theory of dark matter direct detection

The impact of astrophysical uncertainties in direct detection searches can vary significantly across particle dark matter models and detector targets, due to the different velocity and momentum dependencies of the scattering cross section. We address these uncertainties for all operators of the nonrelativistic effective field theory of dark-matter/nucleon interactions, making use of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) information divergence to measure the deviation of the true dark matter velocity distribution from the Maxwell-Boltzmann form. This approach quantifies how astrophysical uncertainties affect each operator in the effective theory, without assuming any specific functional form for the velocity distribution. While for some operators the uncertainties are smaller than 1 order of magnitude for entropically motivated deviations from the Maxwell-Boltzmann form, for other operators, these uncertainties can be as large as three orders of magnitude near threshold. Furthermore, we identify the dependence of the scattering rate for various operators of the effective theory with different velocity-weighted moments of the velocity distribution, functionally analogous to the mean, variance, or skewness. This provides new analytic insight into which features of the velocity distribution are most relevant to detect a given particle dark matter model. Our technique is general and could be applied to a broader class of physics problems where a physical observable depends on the statistical moments of an uncertain theoretical distribution.

Herrera, Gonzalo [MIT, MKI; Harvard U.; Virginia T↗
DOE OSTI2023

Self-assembly of co-continuous nanostructured copolymer templates with compositional and architectural dispersity

In our previous DOE-supported project (DE-SC0016208), we demonstrated that a particular architecture dubbed ‘randomly end-linked copolymer networks’ (RECNs) led to especially robust self-assembly of disordered cocontinuous nanostructures. Such structures, wherein both microphases are fully percolating in three dimensions, are attractive for a wide-variety of energy-relevant applications including purification membranes, separators in batteries and fuel cells, catalyst supports, and high surface area electrodes. In the current project we sought to substantially extend our fundamental understanding of how different types of randomness in blocky copolymer architecture contribute to the robust formation of disordered cocontinuous nanostructures. To do so, we filled in the sizable gap between the previously studied cases of randomly linked linear multiblock copolymers and RECNs by studying two intermediate cases: (i) random miktoarm star polymers, which contain dispersity in the number of the two chemically-incompatible strands located at each junction and therefore the preferred interfacial curvature of each polymer, and (ii) randomly branched copolymers, which also possess bridging strands that stretch across domains and apply local ‘elastic’ forces to the interfaces. In addition, we studied a different network architecture, statistically crosslinked copolymer networks, that is more straightforward to prepare using chain growth polymerization methods, enabling more facile formation of cocontinuous nanostructures. Finally, we extended our approaches from model systems based on polystyrene and poly(lactic acid) to copolymer architectures containing either (i) polysulfone, an engineering polymer that provides excellent mechanical properties for membrane applications, or (ii) polyacrylonitrile, providing a convenient route to nanoporous carbon materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

On the occurrence of sympathetic flares

Random-coincidence formulas are applied to the data used in previous studies of alleged sympathetic flares to determine whether statistical evidence on the occurrence of such flares can be found for specific physically connected pairs of active regions. Only those active regions that are interconnected by magnetic loops in soft X-rays on Skylab photographs are considered to be physically connected. All pairs of flaring active regions (both interconnected and otherwise) observed on the sun during the Skylab flight are also evaluated. The only positive result is obtained with statistical confidence of 3.4 sigmas for pairs of active regions separated by no more than 30 deg. The occurrence of short time intervals between flares is shown to be increased for such active-region pairs, but the pattern of time intervals is found not to correspond with any propagation mode of a triggering agent in the solar atmosphere. It is suggested that some subphotospheric synchronization of activity in nearby plages and sunspot groups could increase the number of short time intervals between flares at different locations without any actual influence of one 'sympathetic' flare upon another, leading to the concept of 'sympathetic active regions' instead of 'sympathetic flares'.

Fritzova-Svestkova, L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

By observing the transit of various cloud features across the Jovian disk, limb-darkening curves were constructed for three regions in the 4.6 to 5.1 mu cm band. Several models currently employed in describing the radiative or dynamical properties of planetary atmospheres are here examined to understand their implications for limb-darkening. The statistical problem of fitting these models to the observed data is reviewed and methods for applying multiple regression analysis are discussed. Analysis of variance techniques are introduced to test the viability of a given physical process as a cause of the observed limb-darkening.

Newman, W. I.↗
NASA NTRS1986

NDE of advanced ceramics

Radiographic, ultrasonic, and scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) techniques were used to characterize silicon nitride and silicon carbide modulus-of-rupture test specimens in various stages of fabrication. Conventional and microfocus X-ray techniques were found capable of detecting minute high-density inclusions in as-received powders, green compacts, and fully densified specimens. Significant density gradients in sintered bars were observed by radiography, ultrasonic velocity, and SLAM. Ultrasonic attenuation was found sensitive to microstructural variations due to grain and void morphology and distribution. SLAM was capable also of detecting voids, inclusions, and cracks in finished test bars. Consideration is given to the potential for applying thermoacoustic microscopy techniques to green and densified ceramics. Some limitations and the detection probability statistics of the aforementioned nondestructive evaluation (NDE) processes are also discussed.

Klima, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Validation of chemistry models employed in a particle simulation method

The chemistry models employed in a statistical particle simulation method, as implemented in the Intel iPSC/860 multiprocessor computer, are validated and applied. Chemical relaxation of five-species air in these reservoirs involves 34 simultaneous dissociation, recombination, and atomic-exchange reactions. The reaction rates employed in the analytic solutions are obtained from Arrhenius experimental correlations as functions of temperature for adiabatic gas reservoirs in thermal equilibrium. Favorable agreement with the analytic solutions validates the simulation when applied to relaxation of O2 toward equilibrium in reservoirs dominated by dissociation and recombination, respectively, and when applied to relaxation of air in the temperature range 5000 to 30,000 K. A flow of O2 over a circular cylinder at high Mach number is simulated to demonstrate application of the method to multidimensional reactive flows.

Haas, Brian L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The effects of compressive preloads on the compression-after-impact strength of carbon/epoxy

A preloading device was used to examine the effects of compressive prestress on the compression-after-impact (CAI) strength of 16-ply, quasi-isotropic carbon epoxy test coupons. T300/934 material was evaluated at preloads from 200 to 4000 lb at impact energies from 1 to 9 joules. IM7/8551-7 material was evaluated at preloads from 4000 to 10,000 lb at impact energies from 4 to 16 joules. Advanced design of experiments methodology was used to design and evaluate the test matrices. The results showed that no statistically significant change in CAI strength could be contributed to the amount of compressive preload applied to the specimen.

Nettles, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

MAC to VAX Connectivity: Heartrate Spectral Analysis System

The heart rate Spectral Analysis System (SAS) acquires and analyzes, in real-time, the Space Shuttle onboard electrocardiograph (EKG) experiment signals, calculates the heartrate, and applies a Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) to the heart rate. The system also calculates other statistical parameters such as the 'mean heart rate' over specific time period and heart rate histogram. This SAS is used by NASA Principal Investigators as a research tool to determine the effects of weightlessness on the human cardiovascular system. This is also used to determine if Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP) is an effective countermeasure to the orthostatic intolerance experienced by astronauts upon return to normal gravity. In microgravity, astronauts perform the LBNP experiment in the mid deck of the Space Shuttle. The experiment data are downlinked by the orbiter telemetry system, then processed and analyzed in real-time by the integrated Life Sciences Data Acquisition (LSDS) - Spectral Analysis System. The data system is integrated within the framework of two different computer systems, VAX and Macintosh (Mac), using the networking infrastructure to assist the investigators in further understanding the most complex machine on Earth--the human body.

Rahman, Hasan H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A simple test of independence for truncated data with applications to redshift surveys

This paper presents an easily applied permutation test for H0, closely related to Lyden-Bell's (1971) estimate of the marginal distribution of truncated data. The test is applied to two redshift-magnitude surveys, one of galaxies and one of quasars. Assuming statistical independence, testing H0 amounts to testing validity of the cosmological model. Segal's (1986) chronomatic cosmological model is rejected under H0. On the other hand, for the quasar sample H0 is rejected strongly in a conventional cosmological model (and in a chronomatic model as well) indicating either incorrectness of the models or, as is more commonly assumed, indicating strong luminosity evolution.

Efron, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS1994

Monte Carlo simulation of the terrestrial hydrogen exosphere

Methods for Monte Carlo simulation of planetary exospheres have evolved from early work on the lunar atmosphere, where the regolith surface provides a well defined exobase. A major limitation of the successor simulations of the exospheres of Earth and Venus is the use of an exobase surface as an artifice to separate the collisional processes of the thermosphere from a collisionles exosphere. In this paper a new generalized approach to exosphere simulation is described, wherein the exobase is replaced by a barometric depletion of the major constitents of the thermosphere. Exospheric atoms in the thermosphere-exosphere transition region, and in the outer exosphere as well, travel in ballistic trajectories that are interrupted by collisons with the background gas, and by charge exchange interactions with ionospheric particles. The modified simulator has been applied to the terrestrial hydrogen exosphere problem, using velocity dependent differential cross sections to provide statistically correct collisional scattering in H-O and H-H(+) interactions. Global models are presented for both solstice and equinox over the effective solar cycle range of the F(sub 10.7) index (80 to 230). Simulation results show significant differences with previous terrestrial exosphere models, as well as with the H distributions of the MSIS-86 thermosphere model.

Hodges, R. Richard, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Strong-field Gravitational Effects in the Timing and Spectroscopy of X-Ray Binaries

Using the ray-tracing code described, we developed additional features to the hot spot model to explain the broadening of the quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) peaks as well as the damping of higher frequency harmonics in the power spectrum. We derived a number of analytic results that agree closely with more detailed numerical calculations. Three primary pieces are developed: the superposition of multiple hot spots with finite lifetimes and random phases, a width in the radial distribution of geodesic orbits, and the scattering of photons from the hot spot through a corona around the black hole. The complete model is used to fit the observed power spectra of both type A and type B QPOs seen in XTE 51550-564, giving confidence limits on each of the model parameters. These results were presented in a conference paper and in a refereed publication. We also explored the possibility of using higher-order statistics, particularly the bispectrum and bicoherence, to distinguish between competing QPO models. These methods were applied to the hot spot model and a method was proposed to map out the spacetime metric around Kerr black holes in Ref. 3 below.

Bertschinger, Edmund↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Chandra Search for Coronal X Rays from the Cool White Dwarf GD 356

We report observations with the Chandra X-ray Observatory of the single, cool, magnetic white dwarf GD 356. For consistent comparison with other X-ray observations of single white dwarfs, we also re-analyzed archival ROSAT data for GD 356 (GJ 1205), G 99-47 (GR 290 = V1201 Ori), GD 90, G 195-19 (EG250 = GJ 339.1), and WD 2316+123 and archival Chandra data for LHS 1038 (GJ 1004) and GD 358 (V777 Her). Our Chandra observation detected no X rays from GD 356, setting the most restrictive upper limit to the X-ray luminosity from any cool white dwarf - Lx less than 6.0 x 10(exp 25) erg s(sup -1), at 99.7% confidence, for a 1- keV thermal-bremsstrahlung spectrum. The corresponding limit to the electron density is no less than 4.4x10(exp 11) per cubic centimeter. Our re-analysis of the archival data confirmed the non-detections reported by the original investigators. We discuss the implications of our and prior observations on models for coronal emission from white dwarfs. For magnetic white dwarfs, we emphasize the more stringent constraints imposed by cyclotron radiation. In addition, we describe (in an appendix) a statistical methodology for detecting a source and for constraining the strength of a source, which applies even when the number of source or background events is small.

Weisskopf, Martin C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Method for Retrieving Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Imager Data

A general theory for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in N lightning observed by a satellite-based lightning imager is provided. An "exponential model" is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured optical parameter distributions, and population statistics (i.e., mean, variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The retrieval itself is expressed in terms of a Bayesian inference, and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is obtained. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The ability to retrieve ground flash fraction has important benefits to the atmospheric chemistry community. For example, using the method to partition the existing satellite global lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash climatologies will improve estimates of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) production; this in turn will improve both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate model predictions.

Koshak, William J.↗