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DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Cloud Particle Imagery from Aircraft Platforms Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract A vast amount of ice crystal imagery exists from a variety of field campaign initiatives that can be utilized for cloud microphysical research. Here, nine convolutional neural networks are used to classify particles into nine regimes on over 10 million images from the Cloud Particle Imager probe, including liquid and frozen states and particles with evidence of riming. A transfer learning approach proves that the Visual Geometry Group (VGG-16) network best classifies imagery with respect to multiple performance metrics. Classification accuracies on a validation dataset reach 97% and surpass traditional automated classification. Furthermore, after initial model training and preprocessing, 10 000 images can be classified in approximately 35 s using 20 central processing unit cores and two graphics processing units, which reaches real-time classification capabilities. Statistical analysis of the classified images indicates that a large portion (57%) of the dataset is unusable, meaning the images are too blurry or represent indistinguishable small fragments. In addition, 19% of the dataset is classified as liquid drops. After removal of fragments, blurry images, and cloud drops, 38% of the remaining ice particles are largely intersecting the image border (≥10% cutoff) and therefore are considered unusable because of the inability to properly classify and dimensionalize. After this filtering, an unprecedented database of 1 560 364 images across all campaigns is available for parameter extraction and bulk statistics on specific particle types in a wide variety of storm systems, which can act to improve the current state of microphysical parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial patterns of snow distribution in the sub-Arctic

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in sub-Arctic and Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019; ∼ 2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22 000 data points), we developed simple models of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was random forest, using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns will be used to validate and improve snow distribution modeling in the Department of Energy's Earth system model and for improved understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions of the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model Evaluation and Intercomparison of Marine Warm Low Cloud Fractions With Neural Network Ensembles

Abstract Low cloud fractions (LCFs) and meteorological factors (MFs) over an oceanic region containing multiple cloud regimes are examined for three data sets: one Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulation with the default 72‐layer vertical grid (E3SM72), another one with 8‐times vertical resolution via the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (E3SM 8), and one with MFs from ERA5 reanalysis and LCFs from the CERES SSF product (ERA5‐SSF). Neural networks (NNs) are trained to capture the relationship between MFs and LCF and to select the best‐performing MF subsets for predicting LCF. NN ensembles are used to (a) confirm the performance of selected MF subsets, (b) to serve as proxy models for each data set to predict LCFs for MFs from all data sets, and (c) to classify MFs into those in shared and uniquely occupied MF subspaces. Overall, E3SM72 and E3SM 8 have large fractions of MFs in shared MF subspace, but less so near the Californian and Peruvian stratocumulus decks. E3SM 8 and ERA5 have small fractions of MFs in shared MF subspace but greater than E3SM72 and ERA5, especially in the Southeast Pacific. The differences in LCFs between three pairs of data sets are decomposed into those associated with the differences in the LCF‐MF relationship and those involving different MFs. Given the same MFs, LCFs produced by E3SM 8 are greater than those produced by E3SM72 but are still different from those in ERA5‐SSF. In general, the shift in MFs dominates the difference in the LCFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Suppressing simulation bias in multi-modal data using transfer learning

Abstract Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated System Planning: Emerging Software Requirements in the Power Industry

Power system planning software remains fragmented across organizational boundaries, with specialized tools for capacity expansion, production cost modeling, power flow, and dynamic analysis operating on incompatible data models and assumptions. This article argues that the fragmentation is not merely a technical problem but a predictable consequence of Conway's law: software architectures mirror the departmental structures within which they are developed. Regulatory milestones like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 888 formalized these divisions, but the roots trace back to the distinct engineering disciplines-mechanical, chemical, and electrical-that staffed generation and transmission planning departments in vertically integrated utilities. As the industry moves toward integrated system planning (ISP) that coordinates generation, transmission, and distribution investment decisions, the software ecosystem must evolve accordingly. We identify five categories of software requirements to enable this transition: coherent data inputs decoupled from individual applications, unified and extensible data schemas, modular component representations that support multiple abstraction levels, lifecycle management of planning datasets, and well-defined application programming interface (API) contracts that separate data exchange from algorithmic control. We examine how these requirements interact with three common workflow patterns-serial gate clearing, sequential multiapplication, and convergence oriented-and discuss the interface design principles each demands. We then outline a vision for platform-based planning architectures where specialized analytical services compose through standardized interfaces and where artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) tools augment decision support within a disciplined software infrastructure. The practices proposed here offer a path from today's siloed tool collections toward collaborative planning ecosystems capable of handling the complexity of modern power system transformation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Regression Verification Using Impact Summaries

Regression verification techniques are used to prove equivalence of syntactically similar programs. Checking equivalence of large programs, however, can be computationally expensive. Existing regression verification techniques rely on abstraction and decomposition techniques to reduce the computational effort of checking equivalence of the entire program. These techniques are sound but not complete. In this work, we propose a novel approach to improve scalability of regression verification by classifying the program behaviors generated during symbolic execution as either impacted or unimpacted. Our technique uses a combination of static analysis and symbolic execution to generate summaries of impacted program behaviors. The impact summaries are then checked for equivalence using an o-the-shelf decision procedure. We prove that our approach is both sound and complete for sequential programs, with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. Our evaluation on a set of sequential C artifacts shows that reducing the size of the summaries can help reduce the cost of software equivalence checking. Various reduction, abstraction, and compositional techniques have been developed to help scale software verification techniques to industrial-sized systems. Although such techniques have greatly increased the size and complexity of systems that can be checked, analysis of large software systems remains costly. Regression analysis techniques, e.g., regression testing [16], regression model checking [22], and regression verification [19], restrict the scope of the analysis by leveraging the differences between program versions. These techniques are based on the idea that if code is checked early in development, then subsequent versions can be checked against a prior (checked) version, leveraging the results of the previous analysis to reduce analysis cost of the current version. Regression verification addresses the problem of proving equivalence of closely related program versions [19]. These techniques compare two programs with a large degree of syntactic similarity to prove that portions of one program version are equivalent to the other. Regression verification can be used for guaranteeing backward compatibility, and for showing behavioral equivalence in programs with syntactic differences, e.g., when a program is refactored to improve its performance, maintainability, or readability. Existing regression verification techniques leverage similarities between program versions by using abstraction and decomposition techniques to improve scalability of the analysis [10, 12, 19]. The abstractions and decomposition in the these techniques, e.g., summaries of unchanged code [12] or semantically equivalent methods [19], compute an over-approximation of the program behaviors. The equivalence checking results of these techniques are sound but not complete-they may characterize programs as not functionally equivalent when, in fact, they are equivalent. In this work we describe a novel approach that leverages the impact of the differences between two programs for scaling regression verification. We partition program behaviors of each version into (a) behaviors impacted by the changes and (b) behaviors not impacted (unimpacted) by the changes. Only the impacted program behaviors are used during equivalence checking. We then prove that checking equivalence of the impacted program behaviors is equivalent to checking equivalence of all program behaviors for a given depth bound. In this work we use symbolic execution to generate the program behaviors and leverage control- and data-dependence information to facilitate the partitioning of program behaviors. The impacted program behaviors are termed as impact summaries. The dependence analyses that facilitate the generation of the impact summaries, we believe, could be used in conjunction with other abstraction and decomposition based approaches, [10, 12], as a complementary reduction technique. An evaluation of our regression verification technique shows that our approach is capable of leveraging similarities between program versions to reduce the size of the queries and the time required to check for logical equivalence. The main contributions of this work are: - A regression verification technique to generate impact summaries that can be checked for functional equivalence using an off-the-shelf decision procedure. - A proof that our approach is sound and complete with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. - An implementation of our technique using the LLVMcompiler infrastructure, the klee Symbolic Virtual Machine [4], and a variety of Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) solvers, e.g., STP [7] and Z3 [6]. - An empirical evaluation on a set of C artifacts which shows that the use of impact summaries can reduce the cost of regression verification.

Backes, John↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Strictly Enforcing Invertibility and Conservation in CNN-Based Super Resolution for Scientific Datasets

Abstract Recently, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have revolutionized image “super resolution” (SR), dramatically outperforming past methods for enhancing image resolution. They could be a boon for the many scientific fields that involve imaging or any regularly gridded datasets: satellite remote sensing, radar meteorology, medical imaging, numerical modeling, and so on. Unfortunately, while SR-CNNs produce visually compelling results, they do not necessarily conserve physical quantities between their low-resolution inputs and high-resolution outputs when applied to scientific datasets. Here, a method for “downsampling enforcement” in SR-CNNs is proposed. A differentiable operator is derived that, when applied as the final transfer function of a CNN, ensures the high-resolution outputs exactly reproduce the low-resolution inputs under 2D-average downsampling while improving performance of the SR schemes. The method is demonstrated across seven modern CNN-based SR schemes on several benchmark image datasets, and applications to weather radar, satellite imager, and climate model data are shown. The approach improves training time and performance while ensuring physical consistency between the super-resolved and low-resolution data. Significance Statement Recent advancements in using deep learning to increase the resolution of images have substantial potential across the many scientific fields that use images and image-like data. Most image super-resolution research has focused on the visual quality of outputs, however, and is not necessarily well suited for use with scientific data where known physics constraints may need to be enforced. Here, we introduce a method to modify existing deep neural network architectures so that they strictly conserve physical quantities in the input field when “super resolving” scientific data and find that the method can improve performance across a wide range of datasets and neural networks. Integration of known physics and adherence to established physical constraints into deep neural networks will be a critical step before their potential can be fully realized in the physical sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable training of trustworthy and energy-efficient predictive graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling: a case study with HydraGNN

We present our work on developing and training scalable, trustworthy, and energy-efficient predictive graph foundation models (GFMs) using HydraGNN, a multi-headed graph convolutional neural network architecture. HydraGNN expands the boundaries of graph neural network (GNN) computations in both training scale and data diversity. It abstracts over message passing algorithms, allowing both reproduction of and comparison across algorithmic innovations that define nearest-neighbor convolution in GNNs. This work discusses a series of optimizations that have allowed scaling up the GFMs training to tens of thousands of GPUs on datasets consisting of hundreds of millions of graphs. Our GFMs use multitask learning (MTL) to simultaneously learn graph-level and node-level properties of atomistic structures, such as energy and atomic forces. Using over 154 million atomistic structures for training, we illustrate the performance of our approach along with the lessons learned on two state-of-the-art US Department of Energy (US-DOE) supercomputers, namely the Perlmutter petascale system at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center and the Frontier exascale system at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The HydraGNN architecture enables the GFM to achieve near-linear strong scaling performance using more than 2000 GPUs on Perlmutter and 16,000 GPUs on Frontier.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2025

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

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