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At least 757 records · Page 42

Time Series Explorer: Bayesian Blocks with Generalized Profiles and in Higher Dimensions

The Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a project aimed at provided new and advanced time series analysis algorithms in two forms: a tool kit and an automated pipeline applying selected tools in machine learning settings. I will present a sketch of TSE with emphasis on time-domain modeling in general and recent improvements of the Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm in particular. This includes generalizing the shape of the elementary blocks from the current constant-rate model to general shapes, such as two-sided exponentials. Related topics will include extension of BB to higher dimensions and a novel way to detect and characterize short time-scale bursts in time-tagged event data. The Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope light curve for the Crab Nebula will be used as an example for all of the algorithms discussed. This work is in collaboration with Tom Loredo.

Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm↗

JPL Navigation Support for the JAXA Akatsuki (Planet-C) Return to Venus

This paper details the orbit determination activities undertaken at JPL in support of the Akatsuki (a.k.a. Planet-C) mission’s return to Venus. The JPL navigation team’s role was to provide independent navigation support as a point of comparison with the JAXA generated orbit determination solutions. Topics covered will include a mission and spacecraft overview; small forces modeling; cruise, approach, and Venus phase orbit determination results; and the international teaming arrangement. A discussion of the preparations for the Venus orbit insertion maneuver, which was successfully executed on December 7, 2015, is also covered in detail in the paper.

Young, Brian↗

Comment on "Observation of Large and All-Season Ozone Losses Over the Tropics" [AIP Advances 12, 075066 (2022)]

As discussed above, and supported by extensive literature, there is no robust, credible observational evidence for substantial ozone depletion (i.e., an “ozone hole”) in the tropics. It is well known that climatological total ozone in the tropics is much lower than that in the mid-latitudes (e.g., Sahai et al., 2000; Weber et al., 2022). Satellite and ozonesonde measurements indicate a 3%–5% per decade decline of tropical lower stratosphere ozone prior to 2000, far smaller than that reported by L2022. The stronger decline reported by L2022 is caused by inappropriate use of the gap-filled version of the TOST ozone dataset, which is based on sparse tropical ozone sondes before the 1990s. This misuse of data (TOST and total column ozone) shows the importance of collaboratively engaging with groups who obtain the measurements and create climatological datasets before performing such analyses. Furthermore, the study by L2022 has multiple flaws in its discussion of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, particularly in the proposed, and previously refuted (see Sec. III A), cosmicray- driven electron induced (CRE) mechanism. Evidence for the occurrence of tropical stratospheric clouds, as needed for the tropical CRE mechanism, is lacking, nor do CFC-12 observations show signatures of depletion in the tropical lower stratosphere, which could be associated with dissociative electron attachment-induced loss of CFC-12 on particulate matter (i.e., the CRE mechanism). Finally, it is worth reiterating that the CRE mechanism is also not responsible for polar LS ozone depletion. Polar ozone loss can be well explained by the gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry, based on extensive observations and modeling studies documented in many thousands of scientific papers on the topic [e.g., see WMO (2018) and references therein], which is not acknowledged by L2022. L2022’s research paper is a severely flawed one. There is no tropical ozone hole, and the CRE mechanism does not explain observed changes in stratospheric ozone either in the polar regions or in the tropics.

Quality assurance↗

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNE) Sensing XXI

This volume contains 12 sessions, 28 papers and 26 presentations on the following topics: Photonic Integrated Circuits and Plasmonic Sensing; Advancs in CBE Signature Modeling and Sensor Algorithms I; Standoff Sensing of CBRNE Hazards I; Standoff Sensing of CBRNE Hazards II; Advances in CBE Signature Modeling and Sensor Algorithms II; Biological Hazard Sensing; Chemical Hazard Sensing; Joint Session with Conferences 11390 and 11416: Spectroscopy for CBRNE Detection and Warning; Radiological and Nuclear Sensing; Explosive Material Sensing; Poster Session.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Numerical Modeling of Pulse Detonation Rocket Engine Gasdynamics and Performance

This paper presents viewgraphs on the numerical modeling of pulse detonation rocket engines (PDRE), with an emphasis on the Gasdynamics and performance analysis of these engines. The topics include: 1) Performance Analysis of PDREs; 2) Simplified PDRE Cycle; 3) Comparison of PDRE and Steady-State Rocket Engines (SSRE) Performance; 4) Numerical Modeling of Quasi 1-D Rocket Flows; 5) Specific PDRE Geometries Studied; 6) Time-Accurate Thrust Calculations; 7) PDRE Performance (Geometries A B C and D); 8) PDRE Blowdown Gasdynamics (Geom. A B C and D); 9) PDRE Geometry Performance Comparison; 10) PDRE Blowdown Time (Geom. A B C and D); 11) Specific SSRE Geometry Studied; 12) Effect of F-R Chemistry on SSRE Performance; 13) PDRE/SSRE Performance Comparison; 14) PDRE Performance Study; 15) Grid Resolution Study; and 16) Effect of F-R Chemistry on SSRE Exit Species Mole Fractions.

Source record↗

Pre-metered coating flow models with Goma 7: Workflow Tutorial

Tutorials for modeling of slot-die and slide-die coating flows with Goma 7, an open source finite element code, are presented. The tutorials cover the workflow to attaining steady state solutions for these flows, and continuation strategies for navigating the operating windows. Advanced topics of coating window prediction, automated multiparameter continuation, non-Newtonian rheology, dynamic contact line modeling, and some more solution strategies are also covered.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Aircraft interior noise reduction by alternate resonance tuning

Model problem development and analysis continues with the Alternate Resonance Tuning (ART) concept. The various topics described are presently at different stages of completion: investigation of the effectiveness of the ART concept under an external propagating pressure field associated with propeller passage by the fuselage; analysis of ART performance with a double panel wall mounted in a flexible frame model; development of a data fitting scheme using a branch analysis with a Newton-Raphson scheme in multiple dimensions to determine values of critical parameters in the actual experimental apparatus; and investigation of the ART effect with real panels as opposed to the spring-mass-damper systems currently used in much of the theory.

Bliss, Donald B.↗

Developing Capture Mechanisms and High-Fidelity Dynamic Models for the MXER Tether System

A team consisting of collaborators from Tennessee Technological University (TTU), Marshall Space Flight Center, BD Systems, and the University of Delaware (herein called the TTU team) conducted specific research and development activities in MXER tether systems during the base period of May 15, 2004 through September 30, 2006 under contract number NNM04AB13C. The team addressed two primary topics related to the MXER tether system: 1) Development of validated high-fidelity dynamic models of an elastic rotating tether and 2) development of feasible mechanisms to enable reliable rendezvous and capture. This contractor report will describe in detail the activities that were performed during the base period of this cycle-2 MXER tether activity and will summarize the results of this funded activity. The primary deliverables of this project were the quad trap, a robust capture mechanism proposed, developed, tested, and demonstrated with a high degree of feasibility and the detailed development of a validated high-fidelity elastic tether dynamic model provided through multiple formulations.

Canfield, Steven L.↗

Workshop on Grid Generation and Related Areas

A collection of papers given at the Workshop on Grid Generation and Related Areas is presented. The purpose of this workshop was to assemble engineers and scientists who are currently working on grid generation for computational fluid dynamics (CFD), surface modeling, and related areas. The objectives were to provide an informal forum on grid generation and related topics, to assess user experience, to identify needs, and to help promote synergy among engineers and scientists working in this area. The workshop consisted of four sessions representative of grid generation and surface modeling research and application within NASA LeRC. Each session contained presentations and an open discussion period.

Source record↗

Security of quantum position-verification limits Hamiltonian simulation via holography

We investigate the link between quantum position-verification (QPV) and holography established in [1] using holographic quantum error correcting codes as toy models. By inserting the “temporal” scaling of the AdS metric by hand via the bulk Hamiltonian interaction strength, we recover a toy model with consistent causality structure. This leads to an interesting implication between two topics in quantum information: if position-based verification is secure against attacks with small entanglement then there are new fundamental lower bounds for resources required for one Hamiltonian to simulate another.

AdS-CFT Correspondence↗

Controlled Islanding Strategy Considering Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Sources Based on Chance-constrained Model

Controlled islanding plays an essential role in preventing the blackout of power systems. Although there are several studies on this topic in the past, not enough attention is paid to the uncertainty brought by renewable energy sources (RESs) that may cause unpredictable unbalanced power and the observability of power systems after islanding that is essential for back-up black-start measures. Therefore, a novel controlled islanding model based on mixed-integer second-order cone and chance-constrained programming (MISOCCP) is proposed to address these issues. First, the uncertainty of RESs is characterized by their possibility distribution models with chance constraints, and the requirements, e. g., system observ-ability, for rapid back-up black-start measures are also considered. Then, a law of large numbers (LLN) based method is employed for converting the chance constraints into deterministic ones and reformulating the non-convex model into convex one. Finally, case studies on the revised IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems as well as the comparisons among different models are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can result in less unbalanced power and better observability after islanding compared with other models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗

Numerical simulation of the flow about the F-18 HARV at high angle of attack

This research has been aimed at validating numerical methods for computing the flow about the complete F-18 HARV at alpha = 30 deg and alpha = 45 deg. At 30 deg angle of attack, the flow about the F-18 is dominated by the formation, and subsequent breakdown, of strong vortices over the wing leading-edge extensions (LEX). As the angle of attack is increased to alpha = 45 deg, the fuselage forebody of the F-18 contains significant laminar and transitional regions which are not present at alpha = 30 deg. Further, the flow over the LEX at alpha = 45 deg is dominated by an unsteady shedding in time, rather than strong coherent vortices. This complex physics, combined with the complex geometry of a full-aircraft configuration, provides a challenge for current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. The following sections present the numerical method and grid generation scheme that was used, a review of prior research done to numerically model the F-18 HARV, and a discussion of the current research. The current research is broken into three main topics; the effect of engine-inlet mass-flow rate on the F-18 vortex breakdown position, the results using a refined F-18 computational model to compute the flow at alpha = 30 deg and alpha = 45 deg, and research done using the simplified geometry of an ogive-cylinder configuration to investigate the physics of unsteady shear-layer shedding. The last section briefly summarizes the discussion.

Murman, Scott M.↗

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

JANNAF 37th Combustion Subcommittee Meeting

This volume, the first of two volumes is a compilation of 59 unclassified/unlimited-distribution technical papers presented at the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) 37th Combustion Subcommittee (CS) meeting held jointly with the 25th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee (APS), 19th Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee (PSHS), and 1st Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee (MSS) meetings. The meeting was held 13-17 November 2000 at the Naval Postgraduate School and Hyatt Regency Hotel, Monterey, California. Topics covered at the CS meeting include: a keynote address on the Future Combat Systems, and review of a new JANNAF Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee, and technical papers on gun propellant burning rate, gun tube erosion, advanced gun propulsion concepts, ETC guns, novel gun propellants; liquid, hybrid and novel propellant combustion; solid propellant combustion kinetics, GAP, ADN and RDX combustion, sandwich combustion, metal combustion, combustion instability, and motor combustion instability.

Fry, Ronald S.↗

Numerical simulation of the flow about the F-18 HARV at high angle of attack

This report summarizes research done over the past two years as part of NASA Grant NCC 2-729. This research has been aimed at validating numerical methods for computing the flow about the complete F-18 HARV at alpha = 30 deg and alpha = 45 deg. At 30 deg angle of attack, the flow about the F-18 is dominated by the formation, and subsequent breakdown, of strong vortices over the wing leading-edge extensions (LEX). As the angle of attack is increased to alpha = 45 deg, the fuselage forebody of the F-18 contains significant laminar and transitional regions which are not present at alpha = 30 deg. Further, the flow over the LEX at alpha = 45 deg is dominated by an unsteady shedding in time, rather than strong coherent vortices. This complex physics, combined with the complex geometry of a full aircraft configuration, provides a challenge for current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. The following sections present the numerical method and grid generation scheme that was used, a review of prior research done to numerically model the F-18 HARV, and a discussion of the current research. The current research is broken into two main topics: the effect of engine-inlet mass-flow rate on the F-18 vortex breakdown position, and the results using a refined F-18 computational model to compute the flow at alpha = 30 deg and alpha = 45 deg.

Murman, Scott M.↗

Integrated Transmission-and-Distribution System Modeling of Power Systems: State-of-the-Art and Future Research Directions

Integrated transmission-and-distribution (T&D) modeling is a new and developing method for simulating power systems. Interest in integrated T&D modeling is driven by the changes taking place in power systems worldwide that are resulting in more decentralized power systems with increasingly high levels of distributed energy resources. Additionally, the increasing role of the hitherto passive energy consumer in the management and operation of power systems requires more capable and detailed integrated T&D modeling to understand the interactions between T&D systems. Although integrated T&D modeling has not yet found widespread commercial application, its potential for changing the decades-old power system modeling approaches has led to several research efforts in the last few years that tried to (i) develop algorithms and software for steady-state and dynamic modeling of power systems and (ii) demonstrate the advantages of this modeling approach compared with traditional, separated T&D system modeling. In this paper, we provide a review of integrated T&D modeling research efforts and the methods employed for steady-state and dynamic modeling of power systems. We also discuss our current research in integrated T&D modeling and the potential directions for future research. This paper should be useful for power systems researchers and industry members because it will provide them with a critical summary of current research efforts and the potential topics where research efforts are needed to further advance and demonstrate the utility of integrated T&D modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗