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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

The Effects of Sensor Field-of-View on the Geometrical Characteristics of Sea Ice Leads and Implications for Large-Area Heat Flux Estimates

The release of heat from sea ice fractures ('leads') is an important component of the heat budget in the Arctic, but their impact on regional scale climate is difficult to assess without more information on their distribution in both space and time. Remote sensing of leads using satellite data, specifically AVHRR thermal and Landsat visible-band imagery, is examined empirically with respect to lead width, orientation, and area fraction. The geometrical aspects of the sensor are simulated so that the effect of sensor field-of-view on retrieved lead width statistics can be assessed. This is done using Landsat data and simulated lead networks degraded to AVHRR pixel sizes. The analyses illustrate how leads of sufficiently high contrast tend to 'grow' with increasing pixel size and how small or low contrast leads disappear. The relationship between lead contrast and the width/field-of-view ratio is also examined in order to determine the limits of lead detectability, and illustrates the multivalued nature of the problem of lead width retrieval. To help quantify the importance of changes in lead statistics, turbulent heat flux is calculated as a function of lead width and lead fraction. It is shown that pixel size has a substantial effect on estimates of turbulent heat transfer from leads to the atmosphere.

Key, J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection of the significant impact of source clustering on higher order statistics with DES Year 3 weak gravitational lensing data

We measure the impact of source galaxy clustering on higher order summary statistics of weak gravitational lensing data. By comparing simulated data with galaxies that either trace or do not trace the underlying density field, we show that this effect can exceed measurement uncertainties for common higher order statistics for certain analysis choices. We evaluate the impact on different weak lensing observables, finding that third moments and wavelet phase harmonics are more affected than peak count statistics. Using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data, we construct null tests for the source-clustering-free case, finding a p-value of p = 4 × 10 −3 (2.6σ) using third-order map moments and p = 3 × 10 −11 (6.5σ) using wavelet phase harmonics. The impact of source clustering on cosmological inference can be either included in the model or minimized through ad hoc procedures (e.g. scale cuts). We verify that the procedures adopted in existing DES Y3 cosmological analyses were sufficient to render this effect negligible. Failing to account for source clustering can significantly impact cosmological inference from higher order gravitational lensing statistics, e.g. higher order N-point functions, wavelet-moment observables, and deep learning or field-level summary statistics of weak lensing maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Simulation and study of small numbers of random events

Random events were simulated by computer and subjected to various statistical methods to extract important parameters. Various forms of curve fitting were explored, such as least squares, least distance from a line, maximum likelihood. Problems considered were dead time, exponential decay, and spectrum extraction from cosmic ray data using binned data and data from individual events. Computer programs, mostly of an iterative nature, were developed to do these simulations and extractions and are partially listed as appendices. The mathematical basis for the compuer programs is given.

Shelton, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Approximate statistics of random vector magnitudes

Simple, rough approximations are presented for the mean and 99% values for random vectors of up to three independent elements. The accuracy of the provided approximate expressions has been investigated with the aid of Monte Carlo simulations involving 15 different combinations of the three statistical parameters. The results of this investigation are discussed.

Hagar, H., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farpoint: A High-resolution Cosmology Simulation at the Gigaparsec Scale

Abstract In this paper we introduce the Farpoint simulation, the latest member of the Hardware/Hybrid Accelerated Cosmology Code (HACC) gravity-only simulation family. The domain covers a volume of (1000 h −1 Mpc) 3 and evolves close to two trillion particles, corresponding to a mass resolution of m p ∼ 4.6 × 10 7 h −1 M ⊙ . These specifications enable comprehensive investigations of the galaxy–halo connection, capturing halos down to small masses. Further, the large volume resolves scales typical of modern surveys with good statistical coverage of high-mass halos. The simulation was carried out on the GPU-accelerated system Summit, one of the fastest supercomputers currently available. We provide specifics about the Farpoint run and present an initial set of results. The high mass resolution facilitates precise measurements of important global statistics, such as the halo concentration–mass relation and the correlation function down to small scales. Selected subsets of the simulation data products are publicly available via the HACC Simulation Data Portal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of H2 Dispersion at ARIES

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower and help decarbonize electricity grids, industry, and transportation. Using the Hydrogen Research Facility under Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons campus as a test bench, the study examines the feasibility, useability, and value of using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to model hydrogen dispersion. The ARIES facility was chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed at a rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind speed and temperature were used as inputs to the model. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including the hydrogen cloud's direction and concentrations. At low wind speeds (below 1 mph), hydrogen forms a cloud and at higher wind speeds (> 2-4 mph) hydrogen plume stretches in the direction of wind momentum. From >100 simulations for ARIES site-specific conditions, statistical quantities combined with a clustering algorithm were used to propose sensor location at various elevations from ground.

dispersion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum bath augmented stochastic nonequilibrium atomistic simulations for molecular heat conduction

Classical molecular dynamics (MD) has been shown to be effective in simulating heat conduction in certain molecular junctions since it inherently takes into account some essential methodological components which are lacking in the quantum Landauer-type transport model, such as many-body full force-field interactions, anharmonicity effects and nonlinear responses for large temperature biases. However, the classical MD reaches its limit in the environments where the quantum effects are significant (e.g. with low-temperatures substrates, presence of extremely high frequency molecular modes). Here, we present an atomistic simulation methodology for molecular heat conduction that incorporates the quantum Bose–Einstein statistics into an “effective temperature” in the form of a modified Langevin equation. We show that the results from such a quasi-classical effective temperature MD method deviates drastically when the baths temperature approaches zero from classical MD simulations and the results converge to the classical ones when the bath approaches the high-temperature limit, which makes the method suitable for full temperature range. In addition, we show that our quasi-classical thermal transport method can be used to model the conducting substrate layout and molecular composition (e.g. anharmonicities, high-frequency modes). Anharmonic models are explicitly simulated via the Morse potential and compared to pure harmonic interactions to show the effects of anharmonicities under quantum colored bath setups. Finally, the chain length dependence of heat conduction is examined for one-dimensional polymer chains placed in between quantum augmented baths.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2017

Scale Dependence of Multiplier Distributions for Particle Concentration, Enstrophy, and Dissipation in the Inertial Range of Homogeneous Turbulence

Turbulent flows preferentially concentrate inertial particles depending on their stopping time or Stokes number, which can lead to significant spatial variations in the particle concentration. Cascade models are one way to describe this process in statistical terms. Here, we use a direct numerical simulation (DNS) dataset of homogeneous, isotropic turbulence to determine probability distribution functions (PDFs) for cascade multipliers, which determine the ratio by which a property is partitioned into subvolumes as an eddy is envisioned to decay into smaller eddies. We present a technique for correcting effects of small particle numbers in the statistics. We determine multiplier PDFs for particle number, flow dissipation, and enstrophy, all of which are shown to be scale dependent. However, the particle multiplier PDFs collapse when scaled with an appropriately defined local Stokes number. As anticipated from earlier works, dissipation and enstrophy multiplier PDFs reach an asymptote for sufficiently small spatial scales. From the DNS measurements, we derive a cascade model that is used it to make predictions for the radial distribution function (RDF) for arbitrarily high Reynolds numbers, Re, finding good agreement with the asymptotic, infinite Re inertial range theory of Zaichik and Alipchenkov [New J. Phys. 11, 103018 (2009)]. We discuss implications of these results for the statistical modeling of the turbulent clustering process in the inertial range for high Reynolds numbers inaccessible to numerical simulations.

turbulent flows↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction analysis of constituent phases in transition joint between nickel alloy 738LC and a MnFeCoNiCu alloy

Synchrotron x-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis was performed on transition joints between a single-phase MnFeCoNiCu alloy and Ni-base Alloy 738LC to efficiently identify the constituent phases across the interface, with different levels of material intermixing generated by laser-welding with variable power. Here, the intermixing extent was quantified by postmortem energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy mapping. Diffraction-based analyses on complex composition spaces with limited prior data present significant challenges because elemental substitution in both disordered and ordered phases is more extensive than in conventional alloy spaces, which may effectuate relatively large shifts in the observed lattice parameters that convolute the analysis. Therefore, thermodynamic simulations and crystallographic literature data were employed to construct a system-specific diffraction library of twelve prospective phases for the composition space investigated. Subsequently, for predicted disordered cubic phases, statistical hard-sphere models were established to estimate the lattice parameters and predict diffraction peak positions for inclusion in the library. The library was then employed to analyze diffraction profiles measured from the variably intermixed transition joints, with focus on accounting for both high and low-intensity peaks. 99.0 % of diffraction peaks with relative intensity greater than 0.001 were assigned to phases from the system-specific library, exemplifying rigorous peak accounting and indicating that no unexpected phases were present. Up to six of the twelve library phases were experimentally found in the transition joints. The lattice parameters predicted by the statistical hard-sphere model based upon thermodynamic simulations agree reasonably well with the measured values for the disordered FCC matrix phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Statistical fluctuations in Monte Carlo calculations

The time counter and modified Nanbu simulation techniques are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the convergence of the calculations to a steady macroscopic state. Such variables as translational and rotational temperature, and flow velocity, sampled at several points in the flowfield, are considered. Both macroscopic averages and molecular distribution functions are analyzed. The calculation of inelastic collisions, in which transfer of energy between translational and internal energy modes is performed, is achieved through the use of the Larsen-Borgnakke phenomenological model. It is noted that, with reference to translational temperature, the time counter method shows less statistical scatter than that found with the modified Nanbu simulation technique.

Boyd, I. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining machine-learned and empirical force fields with the parareal algorithm: application to the diffusion of atomistic defects

We numerically investigate an adaptive version of the parareal algorithm in the context of molecular dynamics. This adaptive variant has been originally introduced in [1]. We focus here on test cases of physical interest where the dynamics of the system is modelled by the Langevin equation and is simulated using the molecular dynamics software LAMMPS. In this work, the parareal algorithm uses a family of machine-learning spectral neighbor analysis potentials (SNAP) as fine, reference, potentials and embedded-atom method potentials (EAM) as coarse potentials. We consider a self-interstitial atom in a tungsten lattice and compute the average residence time of the system in metastable states. Our numerical results demonstrate significant computational gains using the adaptive parareal algorithm in comparison to a sequential integration of the Langevin dynamics. We also identify a large regime of numerical parameters for which statistical accuracy is reached without being a consequence of trajectorial accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

A statistical investigation of the single-point pdf of velocity and vorticity based on direct numerical simulations

Vorticity plays a fundamental role in turbulent flows. The dynamics of vorticity in turbulent flows and the effect on single-point closure models were investigated. The approach was to use direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows to investigate the pdf of velocity and vorticity. The preliminary study of homogeneous shear flow has shown that the expectation of the fluctuating pressure gradient, conditioned with a velocity component, is linear in the velocity component, and that the coefficient is independent of velocity and vorticity. In addition, the work shows that the expectation of the pressure gradient, conditioned with a vorticity component, is essentially zero.

Mortazavi, M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systematic Validation of Ensemble Cloud-Process Simulations using Polarimetric Radar Observations and Simulator over the NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The BiLateral Operational Storm-Scale Observation and Modeling (BLOSSOM) project was initiated to establish a long-term supersite to improve understanding of cloud physical states and processes as well as to support satellite and climate model programs over the WFF site via a bilateral approach of storm-scale observations and process modeling. This study highlights a noble systematic validation framework of the BLOSSOM ensemble cloud-process simulations through mixed-phase, light-rain, and deep-convective precipitation cases. The framework consists of creating a domain-shifted ensemble of large-scale forcing datasets, and configuring and performing cloud-process simulations with three different bulk microphysics schemes. Validation uses NASA S-band dual-POLarimetric radar (NPOL) observations in the form of statistical composites and skill scores via a polarimetric radar simulator and newly developed CfRad Data tool (CfRAD). While the simulations capture the overall structures of the reflectivity composites, polarimetric signals are still poorly simulated, mainly due to a lack of representation of ice microphysics diversity in shapes, orientation distributions, and their complex mixtures. Despite the limitation, this new ensemble-based validation framework demonstrates that 1) no particular forcing or microphysics scheme outperforms the rest and 2) the skill scores of coarse- and fine-resolution ensemble simulations with different domain-shifted forcing and microphysics schemes are highly correlated with each other with no clear improvement. On the other hand, this suggests that coarse-resolution ensemble simulations are relevant for selecting the best meteorological forcing and microphysics scheme before conducting computationally demanding large eddy simulations (LESs) in support of aircraft and satellite instrument development as well as cloud-precipitation-convection parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗