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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

An Optical and Infrared Photometric Study of the Young Open Cluster IC 1805 in the Giant H ii Region W4{sup †}

We present deep wide-field optical CCD photometry and mid-infrared Spitzer/IRAC and MIPS 24 μm data for about 100,000 stars in the young open cluster IC 1805. The members of IC 1805 were selected from their location in the various color–color and color–magnitude diagrams, and the presence of Hα emission, mid-infrared excess emission, and X-ray emission. The reddening law toward IC 1805 is nearly normal (R {sub V} = 3.05 ± 0.06). However, the distance modulus of the cluster is estimated to be 11.9 ± 0.2 mag (d=2.4±0.2 kpc) from the reddening-free color–magnitude diagrams, which is larger than the distance to the nearby massive star-forming region W3(OH) measured from the radio VLBA astrometry. We also determined the age of IC 1805 (τ{sub MSTO}=3.5 Myr). In addition, we critically compared the age and mass scale from two pre-main-sequence evolution models. The initial mass function with a Salpeter-type slope of Γ = −1.3 ± 0.2 was obtained and the total mass of IC 1805 was estimated to be about 2700 ± 200 M{sub ⊙}. Finally, we found our distance determination to be statistically consistent with the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution Data Release 1, within the errors. The proper motion of the B-type stars shows an elongated distribution along the Galactic plane, which could be explained by some of the B-type stars being formed in small clouds dispersed by previous episodes of star formation or supernova explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Uncertainty Quantification in Quantitative Imaging Problems

The Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) method, a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, is used for optimization and uncertainty analysis of a radioactive source/shield system using pixelated measured data generated by radiation imagers, where each pixel in the image contains a gamma-ray spectrum with statistical uncertainty. DREAM uses this spectral information to determine source thickness and source strength while also propagating uncertainty from the measured data to the solution. Using measurements simulated with GEANT4, successful parameter reconstruction is demonstrated on a numerical test case in a slab/shield geometry. In the presence of statistical noise of 5-9%, parameters are calculated to better than 95% with 2σ error bars that generally encompass the actual values. In a test problem with real-world measurements, source strength per energy line is calculated to within 78-97% of the actual value.

Bledsoe, Keith↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343

Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

The R-factor gap in macromolecular crystallography: an untapped potential for insights on accurate structures

In macromolecular crystallography, the agreement between observed and predicted structure factors (Rcryst and Rfree) is seldom better than 20%. This is much larger than the estimate of experimental error (Rmerge). The difference between Rcryst and Rmerge is the R-factor gap. There is no such gap in small-molecule crystallography, for which calculated structure factors are generally considered more accurate than the experimental measurements. Perhaps the true noise level of macromolecular data is higher than expected? Or is the gap caused by inaccurate phases that trap refined models in local minima? By generating simulated diffraction patterns using the program MLFSOM, and including every conceivable source of experimental error, we show that neither is the case. Processing our simulated data yielded values that were indistinguishable from those of real data for all crystallographic statistics except the final Rcryst and Rfree. These values decreased to 3.8% and 5.5% for simulated data, suggesting that the reason for high R-factors in macromolecular crystallography is neither experimental error nor phase bias, but rather an underlying inadequacy in the models used to explain our observations. The present inability to accurately represent the entire macromolecule with both its flexibility and its proteinsolvent interface may be improved by synergies between small-angle X-ray scattering, computational chemistry and crystallography. The exciting implication of our finding is that macromolecular data contain substantial hidden and untapped potential to resolve ambiguities in the true nature of the nanoscale, a task that the second century of crystallography promises to fulfill.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling protein structures from predicted contacts with modern molecular dynamics potentials: accuracy, sensitivity, and refinement

Protein structure prediction has become increasingly popular and successful in recent years. An essential step for fragment-free, template-free methods is the generation of a final three-dimensional protein model from a set of predicted amino acid contacts that are often described by interresidue pairwise atomic distances. Here we explore the use of modern, open-source molecular dynamics (MD) engines, which have been continually developed over the last three decades with all-atom Hamiltonians to model biomolecular structure and dynamics, to generate accurate protein structures starting from a set of inferred pairwise distances. Additionally, the ability of MD empirical physical potentials to correct inaccuracies in the predicted geometries is tested. We rigorously characterize the effect of modeling parameters on results, the effect of different amounts of error in the predicted distances on the final structures, and test the ability of post-processing analysis to sort the best models out of a set of statistical replicas. We find that with exact distances and with noisy distances, the method can produce excellent structural models, and that the molecular dynamics force field seems to help correct errors in distance predictions, resisting the effects of applied noise.

Davidson, Russ↗
DOE OSTI2016

A statistical approach for isolating fossil fuel emissions in atmospheric inverse problems

We study independent verification and quantification of fossil fuel (FF) emissions that constitutes a considerable scientific challenge. By coupling atmospheric observations of CO 2 with models of atmospheric transport, inverse models offer the possibility of overcoming this challenge. However, disaggregating the biospheric and FF flux components of terrestrial fluxes from CO 2 concentration measurements has proven to be difficult, due to observational and modeling limitations. In this study, we propose a statistical inverse modeling scheme for disaggregating winter time fluxes on the basis of their unique error covariances and covariates, where these covariances and covariates are representative of the underlying processes affecting FF and biospheric fluxes. The application of the method is demonstrated with one synthetic and two real data prototypical inversions by using in situ CO 2 measurements over North America. Also, inversions are performed only for the month of January, as predominance of biospheric CO 2 signal relative to FF CO 2 signal and observational limitations preclude disaggregation of the fluxes in other months. The quality of disaggregation is assessed primarily through examination of a posteriori covariance between disaggregated FF and biospheric fluxes at regional scales. Findings indicate that the proposed method is able to robustly disaggregate fluxes regionally at monthly temporal resolution with a posteriori cross covariance lower than 0.15 µmol m -2 s -1 between FF and biospheric fluxes. Error covariance models and covariates based on temporally varying FF inventory data provide a more robust disaggregation over static proxies (e.g., nightlight intensity and population density). However, the synthetic data case study shows that disaggregation is possible even in absence of detailed temporally varying FF inventory data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Characterizing particle-scale equilibrium adsorption and kinetics of uranium(VI) desorption from U-contaminated sediments

Rates of contaminant U(VI) release from individual size fractions of a composite sediment from the seasonally saturated lower vadose zone of the Hanford 300-Area were examined in flow-through batch reactors to maintain quasi-constant chemical conditions. Variability in equilibrium adsorption among the various size fractions was determined in static batch reactors and analyzed using the surface complexation modeling approach. The estimated stoichiometric coefficients of U(VI) surface complexation reactions with respect to pH and carbonate concentrations varied with size fractions. This source of variability significantly increased the uncertainty in U(VI) conditional equilibrium constants over that estimated from experimental errors alone. A minimum difference between conditional equilibrium constants was established in order to evaluate statistically significant differences between sediment adsorption properties. A set of equilibrium and kinetic expressions for cation exchange, calcite dissolution, aerobic respiration, and silica dissolution were incorporated in a reaction-rate model to describe the temporal evolution of solute concentrations observed during the flow-through batch experiments. Parameters in the reaction-rate model, calibrated using experimental data for select size fractions, predicted the changes in solute concentrations for the bulk, <2 mm, sediment sample. Kinetic U(VI) desorption was well described using a multi-rate surface complexation model with an assumed lognormal distribution for the rate constants. The estimated mean and standard deviation were the same for all < 2mm size fractions, but differed in the 2-8mm size fraction. Micropore volumes in the varied size fractions were also similar as assessed using t-plots to analyze N2 desorption data. These findings provide further support for the link between microporosity and particle-scale mass transfer rates controlling kinetic U(VI) adsorption/desorption and for the utility of N2 desorption isotherms for characterizing pore networks that influence mass transfer rates.

Stoliker, Deborah L.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Method of Determining the Reliability of Real-Time In-reactor Monitoring of VVER

A methodological approach and the basic tenets for evaluating the reliability of in-reactor monitoring of VVER are presented. The method is based on the statistical analysis of indications in real time and includes methods for evaluating the admissible maximum error of the measurement channels used for monitoring as well as the average value and admissible deviation of indications in groups of parallel monitoring channels, as well as a method of evaluating reliability by comparing the values of a parameter with the regime values. In comparing the indications of a monitoring channel with the indications of other parallel channels, the median value is proposed as the baseline value. The developed method is implemented in the Diagnostika SVRK special software, which has been successfully tested during the commissioning of the No. 1 unit at the Novovoronezh NPP-2.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Performance Enhancement for Nonlinear Stochastic Systems Using RBF Driven Nonlinear Compensation with Extended Kalman Filter

In this paper, a novel hybrid control method is proposed to enhance the control performance of the PI based control system for a class of nonlinear and non-Gaussian stochastic dynamic processes with unmeasurable states. Firstly, to enhance the tracking performance of the PI controller where the PI parameters are fixed in many actual control systems, the compensative signal is formed using the extended Kalman filter(EKF) based state estimator and driven by the radial basis function (RBF) neural network based compensator. In addition, the weights of RBF is trained to minimize the entropy criterion of tracking error as the process is subjected to non-Gaussian disturbances. Meanwhile, since the precise statistical property of noises is hard to obtain for many industrial processes, the kernel density estimation (KDE) technique is employed in this paper to estimate the entropy. The convergence of RBF network is discussed and the stability of the resulted closed-loop hybrid control system is analyzed in mean square sense. Finally, a numerical example and a practical system testing are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

stochastic systems, PI Controller, Entropy, Extend↗
DOE OSTI2019

The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection

This study introduces a method to systematically project retailed gasoline prices in China and provides projection results. Based on oil taxation and pricing mechanisms in China, this study establishes the statistical relationship between the retailed gasoline prices in China and international crude oil prices using error correction models (ECM), time-series models. Detailed comparison among asymmetric ECM, threshold ECM, and threshold asymmetric ECM are provided. By adopting the ECMs, the study projects the retailed gasoline prices from 2019 to 2050 based on the international crude oil prices from the Annual Energy Outlook provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The results show that the asymmetric responsiveness and the threshold effect exist under current Chinese oil pricing policy with a lag of one month or even shorter in gasoline price adjustment. Moreover, the analysis informs one that, in the short-run, the retailed gasoline prices in China are more sensitive to international crude oil price increases; while in the long-run, the retailed gasoline prices are more sensitive to international crude oil price decreases. Compared with the national average gasoline price in China of 6.04 CNY/Liter in 2017, the national average gasoline price in China is projected to be about 7.64 CNY/Liter (2017 dollar) by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Radio-optical reference frame link using the U.S. Naval observatory astrograph and deep CCD imaging

Between 1997 and 2004 several observing runs were conducted, mainly with the CTIO 0.9 m, to image International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) counterparts (mostly QSOs) in order to determine accurate optical positions. Contemporary to these deep CCD images, the same fields were observed with the U.S. Naval Observatory astrograph in the same bandpass. They provide accurate positions on the Hipparcos/Tycho-2 system for stars in the 10-16 mag range used as reference stars for the deep CCD imaging data. Here we present final optical position results of 413 sources based on reference stars obtained by dedicated astrograph observations that were reduced following two different procedures. These optical positions are compared to radio very long baseline interferometry positions. The current optical system is not perfectly aligned to the ICRF radio system with rigid body rotation angles of 3-5 mas (= 3σ level) found between them for all three axes. Furthermore, statistically, the optical-radio position differences are found to exceed the total, combined, known errors in the observations. Systematic errors in the optical reference star positions and physical offsets between the centers of optical and radio emissions are both identified as likely causes. A detrimental, astrophysical, random noise component is postulated to be on about the 10 mas level. If confirmed by future observations, this could severely limit the Gaia to ICRF reference frame alignment accuracy to an error of about 0.5 mas per coordinate axis with the current number of sources envisioned to provide the link. A list of 36 ICRF sources without the detection of an optical counterpart to a limiting magnitude of about R = 22 is provided as well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energetic particle optimization of quasi-axisymmetric stellarator equilibria

Abstract An important goal of stellarator optimization is to achieve good confinement of energetic particles such as, in the case of a reactor, alphas created by deuterium–tritium fusion. In this work, a fixed-boundary stellarator equilibrium was re-optimized for energetic particle confinement via a two-step process: first, by minimizing deviations from quasi-axisymmetry (QA) on a single flux surface near the mid-radius, and secondly by maintaining this improved QA while minimizing the analytical quantity Γ C , which represents the angle between magnetic flux surfaces and contours of J | | , the second adiabatic invariant. This was performed multiple times, resulting in a group of equilibria with significantly reduced energetic particle losses, as evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations of alpha particles in scaled-up versions of the equilibria. This is the first time that energetic particle losses in a QA stellarator have successfully been reduced by optimizing Γ C . The relationship between energetic particle losses and metrics such as QA error ( E q a ) and Γ C in this set of equilibria were examined via statistical methods and a nearly linear relationship between volume-averaged Γ C and prompt particle losses was found.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Seeing the forest beyond the trees: Correspondence

In a recent report (Mitchard etal. 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 935-946) a new map of forest biomass based on a geostatistical model of field data for the Amazon (and surrounding forests) was presented and contrasted with two earlier maps based on remote-sensing data Saatchi etal. (2011; RS1) and Baccini etal. (2012; RS2). Mitchard etal. concluded that both the earlier remote-sensing based maps were incorrect because they did not conform to Mitchard etal. interpretation of the field-based results. In making their case, yet, they misrepresented the fundamental nature of primary field and remote-sensing data and committed critical errors in their assumptions about the accuracy of research plots, the interpolation methodology and the statistical analysis. By ignoring the large uncertainty associated with ground estimates of biomass and the significant under-sampling and spatial bias of research plots, Mitchard etal. reported erroneous trends and artificial patterns of biomass over Amazonia. Due to these misrepresentations and methodological flaws, we find their critique of the satellite-derived maps to be invalid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

GridOPTICS/GridPACK

GridPACK is a software framework consisting of a set of modules designed to simplify the development of programs that model the power grid and run on parallel, high performance computing platforms. It also contains several fully developed applications, including powerflow, dynamic simulation, state estimation, Kalman filter analysis (dynamic state estimation), contingency analysis and real time path rating. These applications can be used either standalone or as components in more complicated workflows that combine several different types of application together. The framework modules are available as a combination of libraries and software templates and consist of components for setting up and distributing power grid networks, support for modeling the behavior of individual buses and branches in the network, converting the network models to the corresponding algebraic equations, and parallel routines for manipulating and solving large algebraic systems. The framework also contains a module for distributing tasks evenly amongst computing resources, even if individual tasks vary widely in their execution times. Additional modules support input and output, basic statistical analysis of contingency based calculations, distributed data structures, as well as basic profiling and error management.

Palmer, Bruce↗
DOE OSTI2016

A NEW CONCEPT FOR SPECTROPHOTOMETRY OF EXOPLANETS WITH SPACE-BORNE TELESCOPES

We propose a new concept for the spectral characterization of transiting exoplanets with future space-based telescopes. This concept, called densified pupil spectroscopy, allows us to perform high, stable spectrophotometry against telescope pointing jitter and deformation of the primary mirror. This densified pupil spectrometer comprises the following three roles: division of a pupil into a number of sub-pupils, densification of each sub-pupil, and acquisition of the spectrum of each sub-pupil with a conventional spectrometer. Focusing on the fact that the divided and densified sub-pupil can be treated as a point source, we discovered that a simplified spectrometer allows us to acquire the spectra of the densified sub-pupils on the detector plane−an optical conjugate with the primary mirror−by putting the divided and densified sub-pupils on the entrance slit of the spectrometer. The acquired multiple spectra are not principally moved on the detector against low-order aberrations such as the telescope pointing jitter and any deformation of the primary mirror. The reliability of the observation result is also increased by statistically treating them. Our numerical calculations show that because this method suppresses the instrumental systematic errors down to 10 ppm under telescopes with modest pointing accuracy, next generation space telescopes with more than 2.5 m diameter potentially provide opportunities to characterize temperate super-Earths around nearby late-type stars through the transmission spectroscopy and secondary eclipse.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Graph Databases for Large-Scale Healthcare Systems: A Framework for Efficient Data Management and Data Services

Designing a database system for both efficient data management and data services has been one of the enduring challenges in the healthcare domain. In many healthcare systems, data services and data management are often viewed as two orthogonal tasks; data services refer to retrieval and analytic queries such as search, joins, statistical data extraction, and simple data mining algorithms, while data management refers to building error-tolerant and non-redundant database systems. The gap between service and management has resulted in rigid database systems and schemas that do not support effective analytics. We compose a rich graph structure from an abstracted healthcare RDBMS to illustrate how we can fill this gap in practice. We show how a healthcare graph can be automatically constructed from a normalized relational database using the proposed 3NF Equivalent Graph (3EG) transformation.We discuss a set of real world graph queries such as finding self-referrals, shared providers, and collaborative filtering, and evaluate their performance over a relational database and its 3EG-transformed graph. Experimental results show that the graph representation serves as multiple de-normalized tables, thus reducing complexity in a database and enhancing data accessibility of users. Based on this finding, we propose an ensemble framework of databases for healthcare applications.

Park, Yubin↗