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DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Numerical Models of the Offshore Wind Turbine From the Alpha Ventus Wind Farm Against Full-Scale Measurements Within OC5 Phase III

The main objective of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation, with Correlation (OC5) project is validation of aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation tools for offshore wind turbines (OWTs) through comparison of simulated results to the response data of physical systems. Phase III of the OC5 project validates OWT models against the measurements recorded on a Senvion 5M wind turbine supported by the OWEC Quattropod from the alpha ventus offshore wind farm. The following operating conditions of the wind turbine were chosen for the validation: (1) idling below the cut-in wind speed, (2) rotor-nacelle assembly (RNA) rotation maneuver below the cut-in wind speed, (3) power production below and above the rated wind speed, and (4) shutdown. A number of validation load cases were defined based on these operating conditions. The following measurements were used for validation: (1) strains and accelerations recorded on the support structure and (2) pitch, yaw, and azimuth angles, generator speed, and electrical power recorded from the RNA. Strains were not directly available from the majority of the OWT simulation tools; therefore, strains were calculated based on out-of-plane bending moments, axial forces, and cross-sectional properties of the structural members. The simulation results and measurements were compared in terms of time series, discrete Fourier transforms, power spectral densities, and probability density functions of strains and accelerometers. A good match was achieved between the measurements and models setup by OC5 Phase III participants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The IDAES process modeling framework and model library—Flexibility for process simulation and optimization

Abstract Energy systems and manufacturing processes of the 21st century are becoming increasingly dynamic and interconnected, which require new capabilities to effectively model and optimize their design and operations. Such next generation computational tools must leverage state‐of‐the‐art techniques in optimization and be able to rapidly incorporate new advances. To address these requirements, we have developed the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform, which builds on the strengths of both process simulators (model libraries) and algebraic modeling languages (advanced solvers). This paper specifically presents the IDAES Core Modeling Framework (IDAES‐CMF), along with a case study demonstrating the application of the framework to solve process optimization problems. Capabilities provided by this framework include a flexible, modifiable, open‐source platform for optimization of process flowsheets utilizing state‐of‐the‐art solvers and solution techniques, fully open and extensible libraries of dynamic unit operations models and thermophysical property models, and integrated support for superstructure‐based conceptual design and optimization under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MARVEL microreactor using a coupled SAM and SCM simulation. (PPTX)

This is .pptx document presenting a summary of the paper of the same name that has been submitted and accepted to NURETH-21: MARVEL is a natural-convection-cooled sodium-potassium microreactor that is anticipated to generate 85 kilowatts of thermal energy. It will operate within Idaho National Laboratory Transient Reactor Test Facility and is being developed by the DOE Microreactor Program. MARVEL will be used to test microreactor applications, evaluate systems for remote monitoring, and develop autonomous control technologies. A thermal-hydraulic computational model of this facility is a valuable tool to study important transients and calculate the safety limits of the micro-reactor design. For this purpose, the authors have chosen to use a multiscale coupled simulation: SCM for modeling the reactor core and SAM for the reactor's primary cooling system. SCM is MOOSE physics module for subchannel analysis, which was designed to model single-phase flows through liquid-metal cooled, wire-wrapped fuel pin sub-assemblies, ordered in a triangular lattice. The SCM code was modified to be able to model MARVEL?s unique geometry. SAM is a systems analysis module based on the MOOSE framework. It aims to provide fast-running, whole-plant transient analyses capability with improved-fidelity for various advanced reactor types. The coupling between the two SCM and SAM for MARVEL modeling is done implementing a domain over-lapping approach. The resulting coupled simulation can model transients such as reactor startup/shutdown and provide an intermediate fidelity picture of the temperature field and other variables, in the core. Results for the steady-state simulations are presented in the article as well as flow blockage transient.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or time- intensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)—a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building’s monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building’s electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE’s Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization’s challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

Li, han↗

DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling receiver flux of commercial power tower concentrating solar power plants using ray tracing: a round-robin comparison of SolTrace, Solstice, and TieSOL

This study presents a multi-stage, cross-validation comparison of three software packages for Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT) applied to central tower concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The three packages evaluated are: (1) SolTrace, an open-source tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); (2) Solstice, an open-source program created by CNRS-PROMES and Meso-Star, with enhancements for CSP applications (called solsticepy) from the Australian National University; and (3) TieSOL, a commercial software developed by Tietronix. This investigation extends previous ray tracing comparisons by incorporating models of multi-facet heliostats within a commercial-scale solar field, taking into account zoned focal lengths and canting configurations. Receiver flux distributions were compared across the tools using a series of case studies, including single-heliostat scenarios, isolated blocking situations, and comprehensive full-field simulations. The case studies were designed to diagnose differences across the models at varying levels of complexity, and to identify and resolve discrepancies as additional parameters were introduced. Key factors examined in the analysis include sun positions, heliostat location, facet and canting focus, and aimpoint strategies. The comparison aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of these tools while providing benchmark cases for validating future optical modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the hygrothermal performance of bio-based materials in building wall systems

Building envelope systems are crucial in regulating thermal and moisture exchange between interior and exterior environments, accounting for approximately 28 % of building energy consumption in the United States with walls being the primary contributors. Improper selection of building envelope materials can lead to moisture-related issues, reduced resilience, and compromised durability. Hygrothermal performance assessment is a key factor in efficient building design. As such, improving the energy and hygrothermal performance of opaque wall materials, through careful assessment of material choices, is essential to enhancing building resilience, lowering energy costs, and improving occupant comfort. As the building industry seeks new strategies to reduce material energy intensity, bio-based materials emerge as a promising solution. However, their long-term hygrothermal performance in building envelope systems remains underexplored. To fill this gap, this study evaluates the hygrothermal behavior of 13 bio-based materials in residential wall systems across three U.S. climate zones. Laboratory experiments were performed to measure material properties such as density, thermal conductivity, moisture transmission, and sorption isotherms. These data were integrated into the WUFI® simulation tool to assess wall hygrothermal performance in Houston, Baltimore, and Chicago. A three-phase modeling approach was used: (1) baseline residential walls with oriented strand board (OSB) and gypsum board; (2) replacing OSB with bio-based materials; and (3) replacing drywall with bio-based materials. Results showed that the evaluated bio-based materials maintained acceptable moisture thresholds of ≤ 16 % across all climates, confirming their viability as an alternative for current sheathing materials. Furthermore, this study provides a foundation for future research and innovation in material science on the use of certain bio-based materials in high-performance, low energy use residential construction. Ultimately, providing critical data, offering a database of bio-based material properties, and supplying a simulation-based approach will help designers make informed decisions for future efficient building practices.

Bio-based materials↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computer Simulation of Proton Transport in Fuel Cell Membranes (Final Report)

This DOE-supported research grant focused on understanding the nature of proton transport in complex systems such as proton exchange membranes (PEMs). The most unique aspect of the research was the development and implementation of a novel multiscale reactive molecular dynamics (MS-RMD) methodology. In this approach, covalent bonds can dynamically break and form, allowing one to accurately treat the proton hopping process essential to capturing the physics of proton transport. The Voth group applied this method to proton exchange membrane systems, providing insight into their proton transport mechanism. They found that protons can diffuse most rapidly in the water-rich regions, but that protons actually spend so little time in such regions that transport along the hydrophobic – hydrophilic interface controls the membrane performance. In addition, the group worked to increase understanding of acidic solutions, developing methods for simulating and interpreting experimental infrared vibrational spectroscopy for excess protons (acidic solutions). The group also implemented novel tools for developing proton transport reactive MD models using a relative entropy minimization scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

MACHINE LEARNING BASED CHEMICAL EXPLOSIVE MODE ANALYSIS (ML-CEMA)

The software consists of a Machine Learning based Chemical Explosive Mode Analysis (ML-CEMA) tool for advanced computational flame diagnostics. CEMA, originally based on eigen-analysis of the local thermochemical system, is capable of identifying reaction fronts and limit phenomena such as auto-ignition and extinction in practical combustion systems, such as internal combustion engines and gas turbine combustors. However, the original CEMA is computationally expensive for large reaction mechanisms that are typically needed to describe fuel chemistry of practical large-hydrocarbon fuels. This novel ML-CEMA tool employs a ML technique to accelerate the eigen-analysis of the basic CEMA approach by orders of magnitude, thus making it suitable for practical fuels. In ML-CEMA,zero-dimensional (0D) reactors and one-dimensional (1D) premixed flames are first used to generate a large number of data points for neural network based ML training. The trained ML model is then used to perform CEMA prediction. This ML-CEMA tool has been demonstrated in canonical 0D and 1D configurations as well as highly-transient three-dimensional spray flames exhibiting multi-mode turbulent combustion, showing promising results. ML-CEMA, as a standalone tool, can be used for computationally-efficient diagnostics of massive datasets generated from both experiments and simulations. For example, based on spatially resolved measurements of a small set of reactive scalars(such as temperature, hydroxyl radical and formaldehyde), ML-CEMA can effectively identify flame fronts and rare events. ML-CEMA also provides a robust online or offline flame feature detection tool. When used for on-the-fly simulations, ML-CEMA further enables zone-adaptive combustion modeling, in which the predicted eigenvalue is used as a robust mode indicator for judicious assignment of locally-valid combustion models. This ML-CEMA based zone-adaptive model can lead to substantial computational cost savings when used for large-scale simulations of multi-mode combustion systems. Third Party Code Web Page to Download Code Web Page Location of Third Party License

Xu, Chao↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics modeling of molten salt reactor with reduced and expanded representations of delayed neutron precursors

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) present unique challenges in dynamic behavior due to the mobility of their fuel. In these reactors, delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) drift with the fuel circulation through the primary loop. As a result, a fraction of DNPs decays outside the core, effectively reducing the available delayed neutron population for reactivity control. Consequently, precise modeling of the distribution and behavior of DNPs is critical for accurate reactor dynamics simulations. In this study, the System Dynamics Analysis Tool (SDAT) was used to simulate a thermal-spectrum MSR under steady-state conditions and following transients. The effects of using reduced and expanded representations of DNPs with fewer or more groups than the conventional 6-group model were investigated. Their impact on the simulated distribution of precursors in the primary loop, reactivity loss value, and reactor response to transients was analyzed. Simulation results showed that reduced models lead to the loss of the actual DNPs distribution data, resulting in less accurate estimates of reactivity loss. Reactor power predictions using these reduced models showed significant deviations compared to those using the conventional 6-group model in transient simulations. Expanded models offered a more accurate representation of the distribution of DNPs and reactivity loss estimates. Reactor power predictions using expanded models showed minimal deviation from the conventional 6-group model during the simulated transients.

analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coordinate-based simulation of pair distance distribution functions for small and large molecular assemblies: implementation and applications

X-ray scattering has become a major tool in the structural characterization of nanoscale materials. Thanks to the widely available experimental and computational atomic models, coordinate-based X-ray scattering simulation has played a crucial role in data interpretation in the past two decades. However, simulation of real-space pair distance distribution functions (PDDFs) from small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering, SAXS/WAXS, has been relatively less exploited. This study presents a comparison of PDDF simulation methods, which are applied to molecular structures that range in size from β-cyclodextrin [1 kDa molecular weight (MW), 66 non-hydrogen atoms] to the satellite tobacco mosaic virus capsid (1.1 MDa MW, 81 960 non-hydrogen atoms). The results demonstrate the power of interpretation of experimental SAXS/WAXS from the real-space view, particularly by providing a more intuitive method for understanding of partial structure contributions. Furthermore, the computational efficiency of PDDF simulation algorithms makes them attractive as approaches for the analysis of large nanoscale materials and biological assemblies. The simulation methods demonstrated in this article have been implemented in stand-alone software, SolX 3.0 , which is available to download from https://12idb.xray.aps.anl.gov/solx.html.

Zuo, Xiaobing (ORCID:0000000201344804)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Refinement of Bison Models for Higher Burnup Application

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is an international research organization funded by organizations in the energy and government sectors. The company conducts research to tackle the energy challenges of its member organizations. In support of the U.S. nuclear industry, EPRI and Idaho National Laboratory were awarded a U.S. Department of Energy Technology Commercialization Fund to develop a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analysis tool. This tool was developed to support burnup extension activities by supplementing the existing capabilities of operators of existing large light-water reactor plants. The tool couples INL developed codes Bison and RELAP5-3D for advanced simulation of LOCA behavior. The project consists of seven major tasks, one of which is the development and refinement of Bison models for higher burnup applications. This task is broken down into six targeted areas of development and refinement including: formation of high burnup structure, fuel fracture and pulverization, transient fission gas release, axial gas communication within a fuel rod, cladding ballooning and burst, and axial fuel relocation. This report summarizes the models for both the fuel and cladding in Bison for high burnup application, identifies the areas of development and refinement necessary to enhance the Bison capabilities to be used in the coupled simulation tool with RELAP5-3D. Integration and regression testing to demonstrate proper implementation of the new features in Bison is highlighted.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

JSPEC: A Program for IBS and Electron Cooling Simulation

JSPEC (JLab Simulation Package on Electron Cooling) is an open-source C++ program developed at Jefferson Lab to simulate the evolution of the ion beam under the intrabeam scattering effect and/or the electron cooling effect. JSPEC includes various models of the ion beam, the electron beam, and the friction force, aiming to reflect the latest advances in the field and to provide a useful tool to the community. JSPEC has been benchmarked against other cooling simulation codes and experimental data. It has been used to support the cooler design for JLEIC, an earlier JLab design for the Electron-Ion Collider. A Python wrapper of the C++ code, pyJSPEC, for Python 3.x environment has also been developed and released. It allows users to run JSPEC simulations in a Python environment and makes it possible for JSPEC to collaborate with other accelerator and beam modeling programs, as well as plentiful Python tools in data visualization, optimization, machine learning, etc. In this report, we introduce the features of JSPEC, with a focus on the latest development, and demonstrate how to use JSPEC and pyJSPEC with sample codes and numerical examples.

Accelerator Physics↗