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We use simulated droplet freezing experiments to probe the impact of variability in ice nucleation propensities (represented as differently-shaped distributions), and observe differences at low frozen fractions and for broad distributions.
Traditionally, hydrodynamics simulations are performed with a single equation-of-state (EOS) to describe each material. These EOSs typically have a physics-informed functional form with adjustable parameters that are calibrated in order to replicate small-scale data. However, because the calibration data have uncertainty and there are typically inherent degeneracies in fitting the EOS, there are actually multiple EOSs that might be consistent with calibration data. In this work, we perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the reactant and product equations of state for the high explosive PBX 9501 to yield an ensemble of EOSs that match the uncertain small-scale calibration data. We then simulate an experiment of an explosively formed penetrator repeatedly with different EOSs to both validate the UQ analysis and determine the effects of EOS uncertainty on the prediction of quantities of interest in the experiment. In general, we find good agreement between the simulation predictions and the experimental measurements, and we identify an EOS variable that contributes most directly to the spread in the predictions as the EOSs are varied.
The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.
The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a users manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.
The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.
The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.
The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota’s iterative analysis capabilities.
Clay-rich geomaterials play a critical role in many subsurface systems. The macroscale properties of these materials (low permeability, high ionic conductivity, high swelling pressure, etc.) are sensitive to molecular-level adsorption and hydration interactions at clay−water interfaces. Efforts to develop multiscale simulation approaches to predict these properties reveal a scale gap between atomistic simulations (typically limited to systems smaller than 10 nm) and continuum-scale models (which use computational grid elements with dimensions ≳ 10 μm). In this study, we present a coarse-grained (CG) framework that partly bridges this gap by simulating compacted smectite clay assemblages with dimensions of 0.1 μm containing 1,400 clay particles across a range of dry densities (1,050 to 1,850 kg·m −3 ) and Na/Ca counterion compositions (Na fraction ranging from 0.2 to 1). The simulated systems, along with their reconstructed binary three-dimensional pore networks, are used to evaluate the microstructure, pore size distribution, tortuosity, ion diffusivity, and swelling pressure of compacted smectite clay. Results show that our approach captures important features of the mesoscale heterogeneity of compacted clays, including tactoid formation, hierarchical porosity, and anisotropic pore networks. Results also reveal how compaction and counterion composition govern emergent behaviors, including dominant pore sizes, directional transport, and electrochemical response. This work highlights the potential of CG simulations to bridge molecular and continuum scales and to advance geotechnical and environmental applications involving clay-rich materials as well as related nanoporous media such as geopolymers and calcium-silicate-hydrate. However, the results also suggest that accurate prediction of certain microstructural and mechanical properties (e.g., swelling pressure) may require even larger-scale systems on the order of 1 μm.
Computing the sensitivity of given reactor parameters with respect to nuclear data is mandatory in key applications such as the assessment of reactor safety or core design. In recent years, the development of Monte Carlo methods capable of estimating sensitivity coefficients based on the Standard or Generalized Perturbation Theory (SPT and GPT, respectively) has attracted intensive research efforts, especially in view of having reference golden standard simulations to be compared to faster but approximate deterministic calculations. Following our previous implementation and validation of the SPT functionalities in the Monte Carlo TRIPOLI-4, devoted to the sensitivity of the k eigenvalue, in this work we detail the development of GPT methods for ratios of reaction rates, and validate them against a few relevant benchmark results. (authors)
This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.
This paper complements the study reported in G. Urbanczyk et al 2025 Nucl. Fusion 65 046018 by investigating how near-field effects from Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequency (ICRF) antennas depend on the magnetic geometry, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of rectified sheath potentials and associated impurity production to variations in magnetic field tilt-angle. Simulations were conducted using Petra-M, employing a flat model of the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) three-strap antenna, and COMSOL, utilizing a curved model of the WEST antenna. Results demonstrate indications of sensitivity of the rectified sheath potentials and impurity sputtering to the alignment of Faraday screen bars with the magnetic field lines, emphasizing the necessity for careful consideration of geometric alignment in antenna design for fusion devices. This trend is consistent with experimental data measured with various diagnostics.
In this work, a decay heat sensitivity analysis capability was developed and implemented in the ORIGEN code of the SCALE nuclear modeling and simulation suite. This capability introduces improved numerical integration schemes, which overcome the challenges associated with accurately modeling the behavior of adjoint nuclide amounts during coarse time steps for both nuclide amount and decay heat sensitivity calculations. This capability significantly improves the accuracy of calculations without compromising computational efficiency compared to the existing method. Extensive verification was conducted for various benchmark problems, including a 238 Pu decay and an irradiation problem involving 135 Xe, evaluated with both coarse and fine time grids. The results show excellent agreement with reference direct perturbation solutions, reaffirming the computational accuracy of the newly proposed numerical integration methods. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were performed for fission product inventories ( 147 Sm, 150 Sm, 155 Gd) in pressurized water reactor UO 2 and MOX fuel assemblies. These analyses demonstrated that the ORIGEN sensitivity analysis capability can capture detailed sensitivity coefficients and underlying physics in real applications. Additionally, a decay heat sensitivity analysis for high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel, including various initial 235 U enrichment and burnup points, highlights the extended capabilities of SCALE/ORIGEN in comprehensively assessing the factors influencing total decay heat. These advancements in ORIGEN offer valuable insights for reactor analysis, fuel design, and safety assessments, especially in the context of advanced nuclear fuel development and design changes.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program aims to develop predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. Incorporation of more physics-based models in BISON for the accident tolerant fuel applications motivated this study. This document details integration of new modeling capabilities in BISON, including: a tensile strength model for uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel to incorporate the microstructural effects (e.g., grain size, fabrication pore size, and porosity), and atomistic-informed creep model for UO 2 fuel that is developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. Sensitivity analyses are conducted on these models separately as well as a two-dimensional full rod application under normal operating conditions. Lastly, these new modeling capabilities in BISON are exercised in Halden IFA-677.1 and IFA-716.1 assessment cases.
The Mu2e experiment is currently being constructed at Fermilab to search for the neutrino-less conversion of negative muons into electrons in the field of an aluminum nucleus. The experiment aims at a sensitivity of four orders of magnitude higher than previous related experiments, which implies highly demanding accuracy requirements both in the design and during the operation. To achieve such a goal, two important tasks should be accomplished. First, it is essential to estimate precisely the particle yields and all the backgrounds that could mimic the monoenergetic conversion electron signal. Second, it is necessary to normalize the signal events accurately. The normalization of the signal events is planned to be done using a detector system made of an HPGe detector and a Lanthanum Bromide detector, which will measure the rate of muons stopped on the aluminum target by looking at the emitted characteristic X-and γ-rays of energies up to 1809 keV. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the detector system's performance before the start of the actual experiment. In this study, the first task was addressed by an extensive campaign of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the relevant parameters and their impact on the experiment's sensitivity. The second task was handled by taking advantage of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) pulsed Bremsstrahlung photon beam at the ELBE facility. The detector system was tested at the ELBE facility under timing and background conditions similar to the ones expected at the Mu2e experiment. The study presents and discusses the simulation results and the detector system testing campaign.
Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is an imaging modality that has demonstrated its utility in a number of clinical indications. Despite this progress, a high sensitivity, high spatial resolution, multi-tracer SPECT with a large field of view suitable for whole-body imaging of a broad range of radiotracers for theranostics is not available. With the goal of filling this technological gap, we have designed a cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) full-ring SPECT scanner instrumented with a broad-energy tungsten collimator. The final purpose is to provide a multi-tracer solution for brain and whole-body imaging. Our static SPECT does not rely on the dual- and the triple-head rotational SPECT standard paradigm, enabling a larger effective area in each scan to increase the sensitivity. We provide a demonstration of the performance of our design using a realistic model of our detector with simulated body-sized phantoms filled with 99m Tc and 177 Lu. Our SPECT design can resolve 7.9 mm rods for 99m Tc (140 keV) and 9.5 mm for 177 Lu (208 keV) in a hot-rod Derenzo phantom with a 3-min exposure and reach an image contrast of 78% for 99m Tc and 57% for 177 Lu using the NEMA IQ phantom with a 6-min exposure. Our modified scatter correction shows an improved contrast-recovery ratio compared to a standard correction. In this paper, we demonstrate the good performance of our design for whole-body imaging purposes. This adds to our previous demonstration of improved qualitative and quantitative 99m Tc imaging of brain perfusion and 123 I imaging of dopamine transport with respect to state-of-the-art NaI dual-head cameras. We show that our design provides similar IQ and contrast to the commercial full-ring SPECT VERITON for 99m Tc. Regarding 177 Lu imaging of the 208 keV emissions, our design provides similar contrast to that of other state-of-the-art SPECTs with a significant reduction in exposure. In conclusion, the high sensitivity and extended energy range up to 250 keV makes our SPECT design a promising alternative for clinical imaging and theranostics of emerging radionuclides.
Recently, a Eulerian-based two-fluid computational fluid dynamics (CFD) framework with a wall heat flux partitioning approach has been intensively investigated for departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) simulation under the U.S. Department of Energy–funded Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Understanding of the DNB characteristics over a range of pressurized water reactor–like operating conditions and accurate prediction of boiling crisis in the nuclear power system have been grand challenges because of the large impact of DNB on reactor safety and operational economics. The ultimate goal of this task in the CASL program is to introduce a robust multiphase CFD–based DNB modeling framework that is capable of characterizing an entire boiling history in which the wall boiling mode experiences the following through multiple stages of heat transfer mode: (1) single-phase convective heat transfer, (2) nucleate boiling heat transfer, and (3) identification of the departure of nucleate boiling. To validate the CASL boiling model, we have benchmarked simulated DNB over three different flow channel configurations (pipe flow, 5 × 5 fuel bundle with mixing vane tests, and 5 × 5 fuel bundle without mixing vane tests) against experimental measurements, and the validation result with open literature is reported. The DNB detection criteria in the simulation are checked by monitoring the peak wall temperature, wall dryout factor, and net energy balance. In addition to the DNB performance test, some preliminary sensitivity results on closure model selection are reported to address the prediction capability of local void profile against measurements. The boiling simulation tested in this study exhibits a maximum deviation of 24% from the measured DNB value in a high-pressure (i.e., 138 bars) subcooled pipe flow test. The ranges of operating conditions are as follows: 1650 to 2650 kg/m 2 ·s for mass flux and 8.5 to 96 K for subcooled inlet temperature. The deviation is even reduced to 7% when the subcooled temperature is less than 40 K. Besides accuracy, base practice guidelines for DNB detection criteria are tested by monitoring three simulation variables: (1) maximum wall temperature, (2) wall dryout factor (i.e., K-value), and (3) energy balance. Numerical robustness of DNB simulation is largely achieved in most of the validation test except for a few high subcooled test cases.
We report particle drag models, which capture macroviscous and pressure effects, have been developed over the years for various flow regimes to enable cost effective simulations of particle-laden flows. The relatively recent derivation by Maxey and Riley has provided an exact equation of motion for spherical particles in a flow field based on the continuum assumption. Many models that have been simplified from these equations have provided reasonable approximations; however, the sensitivity of particle-laden flows to particle drag requires a very accurate model to simulate. To develop such a model, a two-dimensional axisymmetric Navier–Stokes direct numerical simulation of a single particle in a transient, shock-driven flow field was conducted using the hydrocode FLAG. FLAGs capability to run arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian hydrodynamics coupled with solid mechanic models makes it an ideal code to capture the physics of the flow field around and in the particle as it is shock-accelerated—a challenging regime to study. The goal of this work is twofold: to provide a validation for FLAGs Navier–Stokes and heat diffusion solutions and to provide a rationale for recent experimental particle drag measurements.
Particle drag models, which capture macro viscous and pressure effects, have been developed over the years for various flow regimes to enable cost effective simulations of particle-laden flows. The relatively recent derivation by Maxey and Riley has provided an exact equation of motion for spherical particles in a flow field based on the continuum assumption. Many models that have been simplified from these equations have provided reasonable approximations; however, the sensitivity of particle-laden flows to particle drag requires a very accurate model to simulate. To develop such a model, a 2D axisymmetric Navier-Stokes direct numerical simulation of a single particle in a transient, shock-driven flow field was conducted in the hydrocode FLAG. FLAG’s capability to run arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian hydrodynamics coupled with solid mechanic models makes it an ideal code to capture the physics of the flow field around and in the particle as it is shock-accelerated – a challenging regime to study. The goal of this work is twofold: to provide a validation for FLAG’s Navier-Stokes and heat diffusion solutions, and to provide a rationale for recent experimental particle drag measurements.