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At least 757 records · Page 42

Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton

We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Case Study about Energy and Cost Impacts for Different Community Scenarios Using a Community-Scale Building Energy Modeling Tool

The United States building sector consumed approximately 75% of electricity in 2019. By implementing renewable energy technologies and control strategies into buildings, future buildings will serve as energy generators as well as consumers. To accommodate this transition, communications among buildings and between buildings and the grid could provide more possibilities to optimize the energy performance of buildings. This paper develops a community-scale building energy model tool and conducts a case study adopting behind-the-meter distributed energy resources, sharing energy in different buildings, and using different electricity tariff structures. Three scenarios are studied: (1) electricity only supplied by the grid, (2) photovoltaic (PV) panels installed on and available to some but not all buildings, and (3) a connected community. To consider the impacts of locations and energy tariffs, this paper selects four cities and three electricity tariffs to evaluate the energy and cost performances of these three scenarios. The results show that the PV panels in Scenario 2 reduce 25% to 33% of the community-level electricity consumption and 20% to 30% of the community-level electricity cost compared with Scenario 1 in all studied locations and energy tariffs. By considering power management in the connected community (Scenario 3), the electricity consumption and cost can be further reduced by 6% to 7% and 5% to 11%, respectively, compared with Scenario 2.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pathways to a Sustainable Aviation Ecosystem: Aviation Energy Research and Operation Simulator (AEROSim)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed highly accessible tools for ground vehicle modeling, making it easy to quickly compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on fuel/energy consumption, performance, cost, and battery life. With AEROSim, NREL advanced aircraft, enabling the same level of ease and versatility in comparing aircraft designs across a range of scenarios and conditions.

advanced air mobility↗

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) (Six-Month Progress Update) [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation was delivered in a public webinar on July 21, 2022, providing a high level summary of the progress in the first six months of the study, including presentation of four initial scenario definitions based on extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO 2 -to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aim to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO 2 -to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

capacity expansion model↗

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grids

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aims to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies in power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid: Preprint

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aimto meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integration of Advanced Concepts and Vehicles Into the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Introduction, Key Messages, and Vehicle Attributes - Volume 1

Raytheon, in partnership with NASA, is leading the way in ensuring that the future air transportation continues to be a key driver of economic growth and stability and that this system provides an environmentally friendly, safe, and effective means of moving people and goods. A Raytheon-led team of industry and academic experts, under NASA contract NNA08BA47C, looked at the potential issues and impact of introducing four new classes of advanced aircraft into the next generation air transportation system -- known as NextGen. The study will help determine where NASA should further invest in research to support the safe introduction of these new air vehicles. Small uncrewed or unmanned aerial systems (SUAS), super heavy transports (SHT) including hybrid wing body versions (HWB), very light jets (VLJ), and supersonic business jets (SSBJ) are the four classes of aircraft that we studied. Understanding each vehicle's business purpose and strategy is critical to assessing the feasibility of new aircraft operations and their impact on NextGen's architecture. The Raytheon team used scenarios created by aviation experts that depict vehicles in year 2025 operations along with scripts or use cases to understand the issues presented by these new types of vehicles. The information was then mapped into the Joint Planning and Development Office's (JPDO s) Enterprise Architecture to show how the vehicles will fit into NextGen's Concept of Operations. The team also identified significant changes to the JPDO's Integrated Work Plan (IWP) to optimize the NextGen vision for these vehicles. Using a proven enterprise architecture approach and the JPDO s Joint Planning Environment (JPE) web site helped make the leap from architecture to planning efficient, manageable and achievable. Very Light Jets flying into busy hub airports -- Supersonic Business Jets needing to climb and descend rapidly to achieve the necessary altitude Super-heavy cargo planes requiring the shortest common flight path -- are just a few of the potential new operations in the future National Airspace System. To assess the impact of these new scenarios on overall national airspace operations, the Raytheon team used the capabilities of a suite of tools such as NASA's Airspace Concepts Evaluation System (ACES), the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS), FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), Intelligent Automations Kinematic Trajectory Generator (KTG) and the Aviation Safety Risk Model (ASRM). Detailed metroplex modeling, surface delay models for super heavy transports, prioritized routing and corridors for supersonics business jets, and VLJ demand models are some of the models developed by the Raytheon team to study the effect of operating these new vehicles in the future NAS. Using this suite of models, several trade studies were conducted to evaluate these effects in terms of delays, equity in access, safety, and the environment. Looking at the impact of each vehicle, a number of critical issues were identified. The Raytheon team concluded that strict compliance to NextGen's 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) management will be required to accommodate these vehicles unique operations and increased number of flights in the future air space system. The next section provides a discussion of this and the other key findings from our study.

Zellweger, Andres↗

Spectrum/Orbit-Utilization Program

Interferences among geostationary satellites determine allocations. Spectrum/Orbit Utilization Program (SOUP) is analytical computer program for determining mutual interferences among geostationary-satellite communication systems operating in given scenario. Major computed outputs are carrier-to-interference ratios at receivers at specified stations on Earth. Information enables determination of acceptability of planned communication systems. Written in FORTRAN.

Miller, Edward F.↗

An integrated approach for the design and evaluation of human-machine interfaces

An integrated environment for the design and evaluation (from a human factors point-of-view) of human-machine interfaces is proposed. Four major components of an experimental environment currently under study are identified and discussed. A scenario highlighting the relationships of these four components in an integrated operational environment is presented. Current status, issues to be addressed and future plans for this activity are discussed.

Truszkowski, Walt F.↗

A Fundamental Mathematical Model of a Microbial Predenitrification System

Space flight beyond Low Earth Orbit requires sophisticated systems to support all aspects of the mission (life support, real-time communications, etc.). A common concern that cuts across all these systems is the selection of information technology (IT) methodology, software and hardware architectures to provide robust monitoring, diagnosis, and control support. Another dimension of the problem space is that different systems must be integrated seamlessly so that communication speed and data handling appear as a continuum (un-interrupted). One such team investigating this problem is the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) team whose role is to define the critical requirements expected of software and hardware to support an integrated approach to the command and control of Advanced Life Support (ALS) for future long-duration human space missions, including permanent human presence on the Moon and Mars. A goal of the AIM team is to set the foundation for testing criteria that will assist in specifying tasks, control schemes and test scenarios to validate and verify systems capabilities. This project is to contribute to the goals of the AIM team by assisting with controls planning for ALS. Control for ALS is an enormous problem it involves air revitalization, water recovery, food production, solids processing and crew. In more general terms, these systems can be characterized as involving both continuous and discrete processes, dynamic interactions among the sub-systems, nonlinear behavior due to the complex operations, and a large number of multivariable interactions due to the dimension of the state space. It is imperative that a baseline approach from which to measure performance is established especially when the expectation for the control system is complete autonomous control.

Hoo, Karlene A.↗

NASA HRP Plans for Collaboration at the IBMP Ground-Based Experimental Facility (NEK)

NASA and IBMP are planning research collaborations using the IBMP Ground-based Experimental Facility (NEK). The NEK offers unique capabilities to study the effects of isolation on behavioral health and performance as it relates to spaceflight. The NEK is comprised of multiple interconnected modules that range in size from 50-250m(sup3). Modules can be included or excluded in a given mission allowing for flexibility of platform design. The NEK complex includes a Mission Control Center for communications and monitoring of crew members. In an effort to begin these collaborations, a 2-week mission is planned for 2017. In this mission, scientific studies will be conducted to assess facility capabilities in preparation for longer duration missions. A second follow-on 2-week mission may be planned for early in 2018. In future years, long duration missions of 4, 8 and 12 months are being considered. Missions will include scenarios that simulate for example, transit to and from asteroids, the moon, or other interplanetary travel. Mission operations will be structured to include stressors such as, high workloads, communication delays, and sleep deprivation. Studies completed at the NEK will support International Space Station expeditions, and future exploration missions. Topics studied will include communication, crew autonomy, cultural diversity, human factors, and medical capabilities.

Cromwell, Ronita L.↗

Science camera calibration for extreme adaptive optics

The nascent field of planet detection has yielded a host of extra-solar planet detections. To date, these detections have been the result of indirect techniques: the planet is inferred by precisely measuring its effect on the host star. Direct observation of extra-solar planets remains a challenging yet compelling goal. In this vein, the Center for Adaptive Optics has proposed a ground-based, high-actuator density extreme A0 system (XAOPI), for a large (~10 m) telescope whose ultimate goal is to directly evidence a specific class of these objects: young and massive planets. Detailed system wave-front error budgets suggest that this system is a feasible, if not an ambitious, proposition. One key element in this error budget is the calibration and maintenance of the science camera wave front with respect to the wave-front sensor which currently as an allowable contribution of ~ 5 nanometers rms. This talk first summarizes the current status of calibration on existing ground-based A0 systems, the magnitude of this effect in the system error budget and current techniques for mitigation. Subsequently, we will explore the nature of this calibration error term, it's source in the non-commonality between the science camera and wave front sensor, and the effect of the temporal evolution of non-commonality. Finally, we will describe preliminary plans for sensing and controlling this error term. The sensing techniques include phase retrieval, phase contrast and external metrology. To conclude, a calibration scenario that meets the stringent requirement for XAOPI will be discussed.

MacIntosh, Bruce↗

Temporal Changes in Astronauts’ Muscle and Cardiorespiratory Physiology Before, During and After Spaceflight

Background: NASA’s planned space exploration missions will require astronauts to safely perform extravehicular activity (EVA) and to safely egress vehicles in a variety of landing scenarios. Prolonged exposure to spaceflight can diminish tolerance for physical activity, decrease cardiovascular and sensorimotor function, and cause loss of bone mineral density, and reduced muscle mass and strength. Although exercise can mitigate these spaceflight-induced physiological decrements, little is known regarding the time-course of changes in muscle and aerobic performance during spaceflight. Furthermore, these exercise countermeasures are not fully protective. For example, maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk), lower body muscle cross-sectional area, and strength decrease by about 10% to 15% after short- (~ 14 days) and long-duration (~ 6 months) missions on the International Space Station (ISS). Future space missions that are longer in duration and further from Earth will employ exploration vehicles that will have exercise hardware with less robust and more constrained exercise capabilities than of those available on the ISS. Thus, countermeasures will need to be optimized to protect crew health and performance on exploration-class missions that will last up to 3 years. This will require a more detailed understanding of the dynamic effects of spaceflight on human health and performance, and the ability of exercise to protect against this deconditioning, and the interaction of exercise with interrelated factors like nutrition, sleep, and environmental conditions. Methods: We will use standardized research and medical testing protocols previously validated in 1-G and 0-G to quantify the time course and the inter-individual variability of changes in physical performance, including cardiorespiratory fitness, and muscle strength, and endurance, before, during and after spaceflight missions lasting 2 months, 6 months, and 1 year. Additionally, we will use an extrapolation model to predict changes associated with 2–3-year exploration missions. Additionally, we will monitor in-flight exercise, nutrition, and sleep using in-flight assessment tools. Significance: Our testing protocols will provide valuable information for determining time course of change and the interindividual variability of spaceflight-induced deconditioning of aerobic capacity and muscle strength and endurance over the course of spaceflight missions up to and beyond 1 year. This information will be vital to assess whether humans can be physically ready for deep space exploration, such as on a mission to Mars, using current technology, or if additional mitigation strategies are necessary.

countermeasures↗

Temporal Changes in Astronauts’ Muscle and Cardiorespiratory Physiology Before, During, and After Spaceflight

Background: NASA’s planned space exploration missions will require astronauts to safely perform extravehicular activity (EVA) and to safely egress vehicles in a variety of landing scenarios. Prolonged exposure to spaceflight can diminish tolerance for physical activity, decrease cardiovascular and sensorimotor function, cause loss of bone mineral density, as well as reduced muscle mass and strength. Although exercise can mitigate these spaceflight-induced physiological decrements, little is known regarding the time-course of changes in muscle and aerobic performance during spaceflight. Furthermore, these exercise countermeasures are not fully protective. For example, maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk), lower body muscle cross-sectional area, and strength decrease by about 10% to 15% after short- (≈14 days) and long-duration (≈6 months) missions on the International Space Station (ISS). Future space missions longer in duration and further from Earth will employ exploration vehicles that will have exercise hardware with less robust and more constrained exercise capabilities than of those available on the ISS. Thus, countermeasures will need to be optimized to protect crew health and performance on exploration-class missions lasting up to 3 years. This requires a more detailed understanding of the dynamic effects of spaceflight on human health and performance, the ability of exercise to protect against this deconditioning, and the interaction of exercise with interrelated factors like nutrition, sleep, and environmental conditions. Methods: We will use standardized research and medical testing protocols previously validated in 1g and microgravity to quantify the time course and the inter-individual variability of changes in physical performance, including cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle strength and endurance, before, during, and after spaceflight missions lasting 2 months, 6 months, and 1 year. Additionally, we will use an extrapolation model to predict changes associated with multi-year exploration missions. Additionally, we will monitor in-flight exercise, nutrition, and sleep using in-flight assessment tools. Significance: Our testing protocols will provide valuable information for determining time course of change and the interindividual variability of spaceflight-induced deconditioning of aerobic capacity and muscle strength and endurance over the course of spaceflight missions up to and beyond 1 year. This information will be vital to assess whether humans can be physically ready for deep space exploration, such as on a mission to Mars, using current technology, or if additional mitigation strategies are necessary.

N Strock↗

Analysis of Mars 2020 Perseverance Entry, Descent, and Landing Attitude Initialization Performance

The Mars 2020 Perseverance rover successfully landed at Jezero Crater on February 18, 2021. To perform this feat, the entry, descent, and landing navigation filter must be initialized with an estimate of the spacecraft state, which includes attitude from the cruise attitude control subsystem. Accuracy of this initial attitude estimate has an impact on important metrics such as touchdown velocity. This paper presents a post-landing reconstruction of the attitude initialization error budget, showing that the requirement of 0.15 deg ($3\sigma$, per axis) was met. Each error source is described and analyzed, including flight telemetry where possible. Analysis of the error budget shows that it is driven by systematic sun sensor errors, star-scanner-to-sun-sensor alignment stability, and inertial-measurement-unit-to-sun-sensor alignment stability. Finally, a contingency plan to initialize the navigation filter in the event of a star scanner failure is presented. While this plan was not needed in flight, results indicate that the attitude initialization requirement could have still been met in this off-nominal scenario.

Lo, Kevin D.↗