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At least 757 records · Page 42

Stochastic averaging and sensitivity analysis for two scale reaction networks

In the presence of multiscale dynamics in a reaction network, direct simulation methods become inefficient as they can only advance the system on the smallest scale. This work presents stochastic averaging techniques to accelerate computations for obtaining estimates of expected values and sensitivities with respect to the steady state distribution. A two-time-scale formulation is used to establish bounds on the bias induced by the averaging method. Further, this formulation provides a framework to create an accelerated “averaged” version of most single-scale sensitivity estimation methods. In particular, we propose the use of a centered ergodic likelihood ratio method for steady state estimation and show how one can adapt it to accelerated simulations of multiscale systems. Lastly, we develop an adaptive “batch-means” stopping rule for determining when to terminate the micro-equilibration process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

PIPES (Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems) [SWR-24-89]

The Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES) is a comprehensive project, data, and workflow management tool designed for integrated modeling teams. PIPES facilitates the management of data requirements, tasks, and progress tracking, serving as a higher-level integration layer that works across various data and modeling software. This tool integrates models, data, and tools to perform large-scale, integrated analysis work at scale. PIPES is designed to streamline integrated modeling projects, enhance collaboration, and ensure the quality and efficiency of data management and workflow processes. https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-api https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-web https://github.com/nrel-pipes/nrel-pipes

Gu, Jianli↗

A Pervasive Parallel Processing Framework for Data Visualization and Analysis at Extreme Scale

The evolution of the computing world from teraflop to petaflop has been relatively effortless, with several of the existing programming models scaling effectively to the petascale. The migration to exascale, however, poses considerable challenges. All industry trends infer that the exascale machine will be built using processors containing hundreds to thousands of cores per chip. It can be inferred that efficient concurrency on exascale machines requires a massive amount of concurrent threads, each performing many operations on a localized piece of data. Currently, visualization libraries and applications are based off what is known as the visualization pipeline. In the pipeline model, algorithms are encapsulated as filters with inputs and outputs. These filters are connected by setting the output of one component to the input of another. Parallelism in the visualization pipeline is achieved by replicating the pipeline for each processing thread. This works well for today’s distributed memory parallel computers but cannot be sustained when operating on processors with thousands of cores. Our project investigates a new visualization framework designed to exhibit the pervasive parallelism necessary for extreme scale machines. Our framework achieves this by defining algorithms in terms of worklets, which are localized stateless operations. Worklets are atomic operations that execute when invoked unlike filters, which execute when a pipeline request occurs. The worklet design allows execution on a massive amount of lightweight threads with minimal overhead. Only with such fine-grained parallelism can we hope to fill the billions of threads we expect will be necessary for efficient computation on an exascale machine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Self-Lubricating Bushing Testing for John Day Dam Ka plan Turbine Replacement

The goal of this testing program is to find suitable self-lubricated alternatives to replace the in use oil lubricated grooved-bronze bushing in Kaplan runner hubs that are currently being utilized at John Day Dam operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Scaled bushing testing utilizing a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory designed, fabricated, and operated Bushing Test Stand under the direction and funding from USACE determined that self-lubricated bushings tested appear capable of outperforming the current oil-lubricated bronze bushings. Performance tests are focused on durability which includes cyclic load bearing properties and articulations under various loading scenarios. This testing was performed at nominally 1/5 th scale. A scaling sensitivity analysis determined that scaled testing results apply to prototypic size. This report shows the direct comparison between the current baseline bronze bushing to self-lubricated bushings from various manufacturers. Bushing data like coefficient of friction and bushing material loss (associated with bushing wear) was determined. Self-lubricated bushings tested include products manufactured specifically for hydropower applications by the following companies: Trelleborg, Kamatics, Anonymous, and Tenneco/Deva.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES): A Tool for Integrated System Planning [Slides]

The Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES) is a comprehensive project, data, and workflow management tool designed for integrated modeling teams. PIPES facilitates the management of data requirements, tasks, and progress tracking, serving as a higher-level integration layer that works across various data and modeling software. This tool integrates models, data, and tools to perform large-scale, integrated analysis work at scale. PIPES is designed to streamline integrated modeling projects, enhance collaboration, and ensure the quality and efficiency of data management and workflow processes. This presentation introduces PIPES a multi-model tool for integrated system planning; it describes the underlying architecture, deep dives into common user workflows, and outlines the upcoming development roadmap beyond its current alpha state.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Issues in CSI analysis for large scale systems

Future spacecraft such as the International Space Station result in flexible models with hundreds, or perhaps thousands of modes in a frequency range where the potential for control/structure interaction exists. This provides the analyst with a formidable model reduction problem at both the component and the system level. Approaches to normal modes as a structural representation, applicability of alternate structural representations and algorithms for selecting important modal degrees of freedom at both the component and the system level are discussed. Practical implementation of these techniques on a large scale model of the Space Station are presented.

Blelloch, Paul↗

Time variant analysis of large scale constrained rotorcraft systems dynamics - An exploitation of IBM-3090 vector-processor's pipe-lining feature

A generalized algorithmic procedure is presented for handling the constraints in transmissions, which are treated as a multibody system of interconnected rigid/flexible bodies. The type of constraints are classified based on the interconnection of the bodies, assuming one or more points of contact to exist between them. The method is explained through flow charts and configuration/interaction tables. A significant increase in speed of execution is achieved by vectorizing the developed code in computationally intensive areas. The study of an example consisting of two meshing disks rotating at high angular velocity is carried out. The dynamic behavior of the constraint forces associated with the generalized coordinates of the system are plotted by selecting various modes. Applications are intended for the study of dynamic and subsequent prediction of constraint forces at the gear teeth contacting points in helicopter transmissions with the aim of improving performance dependability.

Amirouche, F. M. L.↗

Thermal stability during rotation in space - A scaling and numerical analysis

An analysis of thermal stability in a fluid during rotation is presented. The conditions resulting in thermal stability are examined and numerically verified. It is shown that at least one thermal field exists for any rotating fluid, with or without a gravitational background field, where convection does not occur. The numerical model used is fully nonlinear and 3D. Results are presented on the basis of both steady-state and fully transient models. The thermally stable condition is further investigated in the context of the average net acceleration and the inhomogeneous part of the acceleration field (gradient of acceleration). It is shown that in the thermally stable condition the flow that would result from the average net acceleration is equal and opposite to the flow that would result from the inhomogeneous part of the acceleration field. It is concluded that the thermally stable condition is actually a flow mode transition at Ad = 1.

Arnold, William A.↗

SRM Internal Flow Tests and Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis: RSRM Full Scale Motor Analyses - Volume 2

The purpose of the RSRM Nozzle Slag Ejection Precursor Test is to investigate the effect that slag ejection from the RSRM nozzle has on the chamber pressure and trust of the SRB's. In past firings of the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) both static test and flight motors have shown small pressure perturbations occurring primarily between 65 and 80 seconds. A joint NASA/Thiokol team investigation concluded that the cause of the pressure perturbations was the periodic ingestion and ejection of molten aluminum oxide slag from the cavity around the submerged nozzle nose which tends to trap and collect individual aluminum oxide droplets from the approach flow. The conclusions of the team were supported by numerous data and observations from special tests including high speed photographic films, real time radiography, plume calorimeters, accelerometers, strain gauges, nozzle TVC system force gauges, and motor pressure and thrust data. A simplistic slag ballistics model was formulated to relate a given pressure perturbation to a required slag quantity. Also, a cold flow model using air and water was developed to provide data on the relationship between the slag flow rate and the chamber pressure increase. Both the motor and the cold flow model exhibited low frequency oscillations in conjunction with periods of slag ejection. Motor and model frequencies were related to scaling parameters. The data indicate that there is a periodicity to the slag entrainment and ejection phenomena which is possibly related to organized oscillations from instabilities in the dividing streamline shear layer which impinges on the underneath surface of the nozzle.

Source record↗

Heat-Transfer Tests of 20-Millimeter Projectiles at a Mach Number of 5 with an Analysis by Unsteady Scaling Laws to Predict Component Temperature Rises after Firing for Various Free-Flight Conditions

The temperature time history of various components of a 20-millimeter projectile was obtained by transient heating tests in a Mach number 5 blowdown tunnel. An unsteady scaling law is derived and used to predict the temperature time histories after firing in flight at various Mach numbers and altitudes.

Trimpi, Robert L.↗

Seasonal-scale Observational Data Analysis and Atmospheric Phenomenology for the Cold Land Processes Experiment

The Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) experiment emphasized the development of a strong synergism between process-oriented understanding, land surface models and microwave remote sensing. Our work sought to investigate which topographically- generated atmospheric phenomena are most relevant to the CLPX MSA's for the purpose of evaluating their climatic importance to net local moisture fluxes and snow transport through the use of high-resolution data assimilation/atmospheric numerical modeling techniques. Our task was to create three long-term, scientific quality atmospheric datasets for quantitative analysis (for all CLPX researchers) and provide a summary of the meteorologically-relevant phenomena of the three MSAs (see Figure) over northern Colorado. Our efforts required the ingest of a variety of CLPX datasets and the execution an atmospheric and land surface data assimilation system based on the Navier-Stokes equations (the Local Analysis and Prediction System, LAPS, and an atmospheric numerical weather prediction model, as required) at topographically- relevant grid spacing (approx. 500 m). The resulting dataset will be analyzed by the CLPX community as a part of their larger research goals to determine the relative influence of various atmospheric phenomena on processes relevant to CLPX scientific goals.

Poulos, Gregory S.↗