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Results for “Robustness analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations

Recent satellite and ocean in-situ observations indicate a doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) since 2005 that is a consequence of anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and climate feedbacks. In this study, we follow-up with an assessment of how other components of Earth’s energy budget have changed since 2000 and how well these can be tracked. Specifically, we use top-of-atmosphere and surface observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and calculations of atmospheric divergence of energy transport from ERA-5 to determine the change in total surface flux along with its radiative and turbulent heat flux components. We also assess trends in ocean heat uptake for different ocean layers using various ocean reanalysis datasets. We compare trends derived using various observational and modeling approaches to assess how robust the derived trends are. Our analysis is restricted to global, hemispheric and regional spatial scales and annual mean and seasonal timescales.

CERES↗

Inspection and assessment of the H-Canyon ventilation system at the Savannah River Site - 15385

Innovative methods and unique equipment were required to perform the inspection of a large inaccessible sand filter tunnel in an aging facility. Among the singular methods utilized was a specialized robot that addressed the difficulties encountered while performing mandatory structural integrity inspections of the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) H-Canyon Sand Filter Tunnel. There were many unanticipated hazards related to degraded conditions. Novel approaches and support equipment were used, including new measurement techniques, high-strength Kevlar{sup TM} cable, a boom-mounted camera, and a larger, more robust robot. With each evolution, additional analysis mandated requirements and considerations for future inspections. Because this was a visual inspection, many photos were taken to document the mission and lessons learned from the earlier incomplete robotic attempts to inspect these areas. Anyone working with aging facilities that have inaccessible structures, systems and components will find the technical process, with resulting solutions, useful. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments

The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. Our ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.

artificial intelligence↗

Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE)

SAND2025-09601O Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE) is a robust, high-fidelity framework designed to analyze the light curves of bolides—objects detected from space. It automates the identification of fragmentation events and energy release modes, using advanced techniques like Savitzky-Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Silber, Elizabeth [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), ↗

An Independent Analysis of the Spitzer/IRAC Phase Curves of WASP43 b

We present here a reanalysis of the Spitzer Space Telescope phase curves of the hot Jupiter WASP43 b, using the wavelet pixel-independent component analysis, a blind signal-source separation method. The data analyzed were recorded with the Infrared Array Camera and consisted of two visits at 3.6 μm, and one visit at 4.5 μm, each visit covering one transit and two eclipse events. To test the robustness of our technique we repeated the analysis on smaller portions of the phase curves, and by employing different instrument ramp models. Our reanalysis presents significant updates of the planetary parameters compared to those reported in the original phase curve study of WASP43 b. In particular, we found (1) higher nightside temperatures, (2) smaller hotspot offsets, (3) a greater consistency (∼1σ) between the two 3.6 μm visits, and (4) a greater similarity with the predictions of the atmospheric circulation models. Our parameter results are consistent within 1σ with those reported by a recent reanalysis of the same data sets. For each visit we studied the variation of the retrieved transit parameters as a function of various sets of stellar limb-darkening coefficients, finding significant degeneracy between the limb-darkening models and the analysis output. Furthermore, we performed the analysis of the single transit and eclipse events, and we examined the differences between these results with the ones obtained with the whole phase curve. Finally we provide a formula useful to optimize the trade-off between precision and duration of observations of transiting exoplanets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling and control system design and analysis tools for flexible structures

Described here are Boeing software tools used for the development of control laws of flexible structures. The Boeing Company has developed a software tool called Modern Control Software Package (MPAC). MPAC provides the environment necessary for linear model development, analysis, and controller design for large models of flexible structures. There are two features of MPAC which are particularly appropriate for use with large models: (1) numerical accuracy and (2) label-driven nature. With the first feature MPAC uses double precision arithmetic for all numerical operations and relies on EISPAC and LINPACK for the numerical foundation. With the second feature, all MPAC model inputs, outputs, and states are referenced by user-defined labels. This feature allows model modification while maintaining the same state, input, and output names. In addition, there is no need for the user to keep track of a model variable's matrix row and colunm locations. There is a wide range of model manipulation, analysis, and design features within the numerically robust and flexible environment provided by MPAC. Models can be built or modified using either state space or transfer function representations. Existing models can be combined via parallel, series, and feedback connections; and loops of a closed-loop model may be broken for analysis.

Anissipour, Amir A.↗

Statistical plant set estimation using Schroeder-phased multisinusoidal input design

A frequency domain method is developed for plant set estimation. The estimation of a plant 'set' rather than a point estimate is required to support many methods of modern robust control design. The approach here is based on using a Schroeder-phased multisinusoid input design which has the special property of placing input energy only at the discrete frequency points used in the computation. A detailed analysis of the statistical properties of the frequency domain estimator is given, leading to exact expressions for the probability distribution of the estimation error, and many important properties. It is shown that, for any nominal parametric plant estimate, one can use these results to construct an overbound on the additive uncertainty to any prescribed statistical confidence. The 'soft' bound thus obtained can be used to replace 'hard' bounds presently used in many robust control analysis and synthesis methods.

Bayard, D. S.↗

Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection

Severe, low-altitude wind shear is a threat to aviation safety. Airborne sensors under development measure the radial component of wind along a line directly in front of an aircraft. In this paper, optimal estimation theory is used to define a detection algorithm to warn of hazardous wind shear from these sensors. To achieve robustness, a wind shear detection algorithm must distinguish threatening wind shear from less hazardous gustiness, despite variations in wind shear structure. This paper presents statistical analysis methods to refine wind shear detection algorithm robustness. Computational methods predict the ability to warn of severe wind shear and avoid false warning. Comparative capability of the detection algorithm as a function of its design parameters is determined, identifying designs that provide robust detection of severe wind shear.

Stratton, Alexander D.↗

Bounds on Robustness Limitations for Unstable Aircraft Using the Bode Sensitivity Integral

This paper investigates limitations in achievable robustness of statically unstable aircraft using the Bode sensitivity integral. A previous analysis of the X-29 aircraft is studied, and details about the available bandwidth and robustness limitations are re-examined using high-fidelity linear models of the aircraft and control system. Based on these results, a modified analysis was performed on the X-59 Low-Boom Flight Demonstrator to illustrate the same type of fundamental limitations and difficulties in meeting traditional specifications on gain and phase margins.

Bode sensitivity integral↗

First search for sterile neutrino oscillation leading to $ν_μ$ disappearance in the Booster Neutrino Beam at ICARUS

We present a search for muon neutrino disappearance in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab using the ICARUS detector. Neutrino interactions identified as muon neutrinos interacting with argon nuclei via the charged current interaction and having only a muon and at least one proton in the final state (1$μ$Np) have been selected from data collected in 2022-2023 (ICARUS Run 2) and compared with a simulation-based expectation. In the context of a fit to a two-neutrino approximation of the sterile 3+1 model, including the impact of systematic uncertainty from the flux, neutrino interaction, and detector models, we find no statistically significant muon neutrino disappearance at the ICARUS baseline of 600 meters from the BNB target. Corresponding 90% C.L. exclusion contours in $Δm^2_{41}$ - sin$^22θ_{μμ}$ space are presented. This is the first oscillation analysis produced by ICARUS exposed to the BNB. We note that the analysis is systematics limited due to large unconstrained uncertainties from the flux and interaction models. In future joint analyses, data from ICARUS and the SBND detector, exposed to the BNB at 110 meters from target, will be combined to provide significant constraint of these uncertainties, enabling a robust, world-leading two-detector analysis.

Alrahman, F. Abd [Houston U.]↗

GCAM Base Year Update

In FY21 we worked to update the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to match historical energy consumption and technology cost trends and near-term economic growth expectations using available historical data out to 2019. We have done this in a way that builds the capacity to more easily update the model in the future to make GCAM a robust and readily updatable tool for decarbonization analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

TRANSP integrated modeling code for interpretive and predictive analysis of tokamak plasmas

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the TRANSP code, a sophisticated tool for interpretive and predictive analysis of tokamak plasmas, detailing its major capabilities and features. It describes the equations for particle, power, and momentum balance analysis, as well as the poloidal field diffusion equations. The paper outlines the spatial and time grids used in TRANSP and details the equilibrium assumptions and solvers. Various models for heating and current drive and radiation, including updates to the NUBEAM model, are discussed. The handling of large-scale events such as sawtooth crashes and pellet injections is examined, along with the predictive capabilities for advancing plasma profiles. The integration of TRANSP with the ITER Integrated Modeling and Analysis Suite (IMAS) is highlighted, demonstrating enhanced data access and analysis capabilities. Additionally, the paper discusses best practices and continuous integration techniques to enhance TRANSP's robustness. The suite of TRANSP tools, designed for efficient data analysis and simulation, further supports the optimization of tokamak operations and coupling with other tokamak codes. Continuous development and support ensure that TRANSP remains a major code for the analysis of experimental data for controlled thermonuclear fusion, maintaining its critical role in supporting the optimization of tokamak operations and advancing fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Microgravity isolation system design: A modern control analysis framework

Many acceleration-sensitive, microgravity science experiments will require active vibration isolation from the manned orbiters on which they will be mounted. The isolation problem, especially in the case of a tethered payload, is a complex three-dimensional one that is best suited to modern-control design methods. These methods, although more powerful than their classical counterparts, can nonetheless go only so far in meeting the design requirements for practical systems. Once a tentative controller design is available, it must still be evaluated to determine whether or not it is fully acceptable, and to compare it with other possible design candidates. Realistically, such evaluation will be an inherent part of a necessary iterative design process. In this paper, an approach is presented for applying complex mu-analysis methods to a closed-loop vibration isolation system (experiment plus controller). An analysis framework is presented for evaluating nominal stability, nominal performance, robust stability, and robust performance of active microgravity isolation systems, with emphasis on the effective use of mu-analysis methods.

Hampton, R. D.↗

A semi-supervised machine learning detector for physics events in tokamak discharges

Databases of physics events have been used in various fusion research applications, including the development of scaling laws and disruption avoidance algorithms, yet they can be time-consuming and tedious to construct. This paper presents a novel application of the label spreading semi-supervised learning algorithm to accelerate this process by detecting distinct events in a large dataset of discharges, given few manually labeled examples. A high detection accuracy (>85%) for H-L back transitions and initially rotating locked modes is demonstrated on a dataset of hundreds of discharges from DIII-D with manually identified events for which only 3 discharges are initially labeled by the user. Lower yet reasonable performance (~75%) is also demonstrated for the core radiative collapse, an event with a much lower prevalence in the dataset. Additionally, analysis of the performance sensitivity indicates that the same set of algorithmic parameters is optimal for each event. This suggests that the method can be applied to detect a variety of other events not included in this paper, given that the event is well described by a set of 0D signals robustly available on many discharges. Procedures for analysis of new events are demonstrated, showing automatic event detection with increasing fidelity as the user strategically adds manually labeled examples. Detections on Alcator C-Mod and EAST are also shown, demonstrating the potential for this to be used on a multi-tokamak dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Orion Orbit Control Design and Analysis

The analysis of candidate thruster configurations for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) is presented. Six candidate configurations were considered for the prime contractor baseline design. The analysis included analytical assessments of control authority, control precision, efficiency and robustness, as well as simulation assessments of control performance. The principles used in the analytic assessments of controllability, robustness and fuel performance are covered and results provided for the configurations assessed. Simulation analysis was conducted using a pulse width modulated, 6 DOF reaction system control law with a simplex-based thruster selection algorithm. Control laws were automatically derived from hardware configuration parameters including thruster locations, directions, magnitude and specific impulse, as well as vehicle mass properties. This parameterized controller allowed rapid assessment of multiple candidate layouts. Simulation results are presented for final phase rendezvous and docking, as well as low lunar orbit attitude hold. Finally, on-going analysis to consider alternate Service Module designs and to assess the pilot-ability of the baseline design are discussed to provide a status of orbit control design work to date.

Jackson, Mark↗

A semi-supervised machine learning detector for physics events in tokamak discharges

Databases of physics events have been used in various fusion research applications, including the development of scaling laws and disruption avoidance algorithms, yet they can be time-consuming and tedious to construct. This paper presents a novel application of the label spreading semi-supervised learning algorithm to accelerate this process by detecting distinct events in a large dataset of discharges, given few manually labeled examples. A high detection accuracy (> 85%) for H-L back transitions and initially rotating locked modes is demonstrated on a dataset of hundreds of discharges from DIII-D with manually identified events for which only 3 discharges are initially labeled by the user. Lower yet reasonable performance (~75%) is also demonstrated for the core radiative collapse, an event with a much lower prevalence in the dataset. Additionally, analysis of the performance sensitivity indicates that the same set of algorithmic parameters is optimal for each event. Furthermore, this suggests that the method can be applied to detect a variety of other events not included in this paper, given that the event is well described by a set of 0D signals robustly available on many discharges. Procedures for analysis of new events are demonstrated, showing automatic event detection with increasing fidelity as the user strategically adds manually labeled examples. Detections on Alcator C-Mod and EAST are also shown, demonstrating the potential for this to be used on a multi-tokamak dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of Neutron Detection Technology and Analysis Techniques to Support Fukushima Daiichi Decommissioning [Poster]

Decommissioning efforts and associated fuel debris retrieval from the damaged Units 1-3 require robust methods to monitor and assure subcriticality. These include adequate detection technologies capable to withstand high gamma radiation conditions within the units; as well as analysis methods capable to provide robust signatures to assure agile criticality monitoring in situation where material distribution is changing. This poster presents overview of experimental and analytical efforts focused on evaluation of neutronbased technologies and development of real-time analysis using state-of-the art capabilities available within the 1F Fuel Retrieval and Monitoring Experiments (1FRAME) project.

1FRAME↗