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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A framework to implement human reliability analysis during early design stages of advanced reactors

Nuclear power plants require human actions throughout their lifecycle from design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. However, for advanced reactors (e.g., Generation IV), the reliance on human intervention in safety-related actions is expected to be reduced or completely replaced by automated actions. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Standard for Advanced Non-LWR Nuclear Power Plants requires that the impacts of all operator actions are captured and incorporated in the risk of the modeled plant. Moreover, the Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing Advanced Reactors requires human reliability analysis (HRA) to be included throughout all design and PRA development stages. However, due to the lack of details during the early design stages, HRA is often postponed until the design is mature enough. Conducting HRA in later design stages, though it may be adequate in capturing pre-, at-, and post-initiators comes short of informing the design itself in the iterative design lifecycle. Hence, this paper presents a framework to include HRA during the design's early stages, pre-conceptual or conceptual. The proposed framework provides a process for the removal of operator actions that do not contribute to the risk and the identification of all key operator actions that are critical to the safety of the design. The results of this framework are then used to inform the design of those safety-related operator actions to update the design further. Then, using information from the updated design, this framework can be reapplied to investigate the impact of the design update on human reliability. The PRA model of the X-energy's pre-conceptual Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor (HTGR-PB) design is used to demonstrate the approach. In the pre-conceptual Xe-100 PRA model, also called Phase 0 PRA model, human actions were considered an integral part of analyzing the plant response to different initiating events. Hence, in this paper, all possible human actions in the Xe-100 PRA model are identified, analyzed, and removed to emulate a design relying only on the available automated control systems. The preliminary results of this assessment show how safe the Xe-100 design is even without crediting any human actions. The results also list necessary sequences in which operator actions are critical to the risk profile of the design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin for Optimizing Real-time Economy of the Integrated Energy Systems

Economic and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires real-time optimization (RTO) of the control and actions conducted on each system component. In this regard, digital twins (DTs), which consist of a physical system, a virtual system, and the data communication that occurs between the two, are essential for effective RTO. Through the data warehouse, the virtual system is constantly updated with real-time data from the physical system, and functions as the model in the optimization framework. The reduced-order model of the dynamic process model in the virtual system is used in the optimization framework. The optimization results are then returned, via the data warehouse, as control actions to the physical system. This work demonstrates the software capabilities of DT assets for an IES in the context of preparing a DT for an experimental system comprised of Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Thermal Energy Delivery System and battery system. For the virtual demonstration, the DTs encompass (1) a physical system, including the Modelica models of the Thermal Energy Delivery System and the battery system; (2) virtual optimization via the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) platform; and (3) the open-source data warehouse software DeepLynx. This work assesses the performance of ORCA, which utilizes a reduced-order model built using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and trained on the Modelica models and real-time data pipeline through the graph database hosted in DeepLynx. The proposed optimization workflow will be an RTO model based on DTs and the data they generate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regulatory Decision-Making Process Using 'Weight of Evidence: An Evidence Integration Approach' by the State of Washington at the Hanford Site - 20163

Performance Assessment and Environmental Impact Statement Modeling, Human and Ecological Risk Assessments are the tools used by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) to make regulatory decisions for permitting and cleanup. These efforts all inherently have large amounts of uncertainty no matter how many alternative approaches are attempted. Professional feedback from tribal governments, stakeholders, federal and state regulators, the public and independent peer review groups are taken into account in this process of informed decision making. The process also includes full evaluation of the comments and the associated reviews made by the various peer review groups such as the Low -Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (DOE order 435.1) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The evolution of technology has produced quicker and more efficient fate and transport modeling tools with related quantification of uncertainties and their significance. Groundwater and vadose zone models have been expanded across the entire Hanford site. Many of the technical approaches identified in the Washington State Regulations are updated using current knowledge to better understand the complexities of the Hanford Site using the latest state of the art tools for risk assessment and modeling. More emphasis and time are directed on defining uncertainty and then managing the uncertainty. One added tool is to run sensitivity cases based on informed decision making. The weight of evidence approach considers all relevant information in an integrative assessment that takes into account the kinds of evidence available, the quality and quantity, the uncertainty and error associated with each type, and how they fit together. Evidence of integration involves looking at systematic reviews and evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. In conclusion, Ecology, Washington State's lead regulatory agency at the Hanford site, has had to modify its site closure approach compared to the rest of the state. A more holistic approach dealing with the Hanford site as an integrated system has evolved leading to a defensible informed approach for regulatory closure decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗
NASA NTRS2008

Vertical Drop Testing and Analysis of the WASP Helicopter Skid Gear

Human occupant modeling and injury risk assessment have been identified as areas of research for improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness within the NASA Aeronautics Program's Subsonic Rotary Wing Project. As part of this effort, an experimental program was conducted to assess the impact performance of a skid gear for use on the WASP kit-built helicopter, which is marketed by HeloWerks, Inc. of Hampton, Virginia. Test data from a drop test at an impact velocity of 8.4 feet-per-second were used to assess a finite element model of the skid gear test article. This assessment included human occupant analytic models developed for execution in LS-DYNA. The test article consisted of an aluminum skid gear mounted beneath a steel plate. A seating platform was attached to the upper surface of the steel plate, and two 95th percentile Hybrid III male Aerospace Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were seated on the platform and secured using a four-point restraint system. The goal of the test-analysis correlation is to further the understanding of LS-DYNA ATD occupant models and responses in the vertical (or spinal) direction. By correlating human occupant experimental test data for a purely vertical impact with the LS-DYNA occupant responses, improved confidence in the use of these tools and better understanding of the limitations of the automotive-based occupant models for aerospace application can begin to be developed.

Fuchs, Yvonne T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Vertical Drop Testing and Analysis of the WASP Helicopter Skid Gear

Human occupant modeling and injury risk assessment have been identified as areas of research for improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness within the NASA Aeronautics Program s Subsonic Rotary Wing Project. As part of this effort, an experimental program was conducted to assess the impact performance of a skid gear for use on the WASP kit-built helicopter, which is marketed by HeloWerks, Inc. of Hampton, Virginia. Test data from a drop test at an impact velocity of 8.4 feet-per-second were used to assess a finite element model of the skid gear test article. This assessment included human occupant analytic models developed for execution in LS-DYNA. The test article consisted of an aluminum skid gear mounted beneath a steel plate. A seating platform was attached to the upper surface of the steel plate, and two 95th percentile Hybrid III male Aerospace Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were seated on the platform and secured using a four-point restraint system. The goal of the test-analysis correlation is to further the understanding of LS-DYNA ATD occupant models and responses in the vertical (or spinal) direction. By correlating human occupant experimental test data for a purely vertical impact with the LS-DYNA occupant responses, improved confidence in the use of these tools and better understanding of the limitations of the automotive-based occupant models for aerospace application can begin to be developed.

Fuchs, Yvonne T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plastics Environmental Risk Calculator

SF-24-074 The Plastics Environmental Risk Calculator (PERC) was developed in Microsoft Excel and estimates the environmental distribution and lifetime of new biobased and conventional plastics from commonly measured properties of the plastics. A Random Forest regression model embedded in the calculator calculates plastic degradation rates and lifetimes as a proxy for environmental risk. Model default assumptions may be overwritten by the user.

Beckman, Kevin [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Nation's Pipeline Infrastructure with NETL's Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)

This poster is a part of BIL-EDX4CCS Task 36: Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Modeling to Evaluate Existing Energy Infrastructure Reusability and Risk, the goal of which is to produce a smart tool that will assess existing energy infrastructure reusability and risk using the Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM). This model forecasts lifespan and potential risk using a multitude of factors such as incidents reports, structural characteristics, and the surrounding environment. The project aims to provide scientific insights for a better understanding of carbon storage (CS), potential to support CS stakeholder needs, national decarbonization, and mitigating climate change. AIIM will utilize an energy infrastructure database as its input, developed by acquiring publicly available data as well as NETL derived products. These resources include incidents, geohazards, and infrastructure variables. Soil data in the form of rasters and pipeline incident reports were processed and a script was developed to count the number of times features such as roads, railroads, and rivers intersected with pipeline segments which were then converted to points. Distance to oil and natural gas wells, petroleum ports, intermodal freight facilities, and geologic structures were also calculated. After data preparation and quality control was completed, the data was integrated into the pipeline points. Once models are complete, a smart tool will be created in the form of an online dashboard.

Malay, Caleb↗
DOE OSTI2024

Airborne LiDAR to Improve Canopy Fuels Mapping for Wildfire Modeling

Increasing conflict between wildfire and the built environment has increased the need for more up-to-date and finer resolution canopy fuels data to improve wildfire modeling and associated risk forecasts. The US Forest Service and US Department of the Interior’s LANDFIRE product, which provides 30-m resolution canopy fuels data for the entire US, is one of the most widely used sources of fuels data. However, the last complete mapping effort for LANDFIRE is based on 2016 conditions, and subsequent updates reflect disturbances 1-2 years behind the release year. Airborne systems equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors can be deployed to actively sense canopy structure and estimate canopy fuels data (cover, height, base height, bulk density) at finer resolutions. Canopy base height (CBH) and canopy bulk density (CBD) are difficult to measure both in the field and in LiDAR point clouds. Still, they are important for accurately modeling crown fires, which are often intense and difficult to contain. Additionally, point cloud datasets are large, and calculations require efficient utilization of computational resources. To address these challenges, we are working on an approach that uses openly available National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) airborne LiDAR data, with calculations processed in the R programming language and parallelized through the lidR package. CBH and CBD are often derived from tree height, diameter at breast height, and species-specific allometries using the Fire and Fuels Extension of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS). We aim to test if airborne LiDAR can estimate CBH and CBD without the use of empirical equations. Reliable estimates of canopy fuels data directly from airborne LiDAR could streamline quick, fine-resolution updates for use in wildfire behavior models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2003

Measurement of Charged Particle Interactions in Spacecraft and Planetary Habitat Shielding Materials

Accurate models of health risks to astronauts on long-duration missions outside the geomagnetosphere will require a full understanding of the radiation environment inside a spacecraft or planetary habitat. This in turn requires detailed knowledge of the flux of incident particles and their propagation through matter, including the nuclear interactions of heavy ions that are a part of the Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR). The most important ions are likely to be iron, silicon, oxygen, and carbon. Transport of heavy ions through complex shielding materials including self-shielding of tissue modifies the radiation field at points of interest (e.g., at the blood-forming organs). The incident flux is changed by two types of interactions: (1) ionization energy loss, which results in reduced particle velocity and higher LET (Linear Energy Transfer); and (2) nuclear interactions that fragment the incident nuclei into less massive ions. Ionization energy loss is well understood, nuclear interactions less so. Thus studies of nuclear fragmentation at GCR-like energies are needed to fill the large gaps that currently exist in the database. These can be done at only a few accelerator facilities where appropriate beams are available. Here we report results from experiments performed at the Brookhaven National Laboratory s Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) and the Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator in Chiba, Japan (HIMAC). Recent efforts have focused on extracting charge-changing and fragment production cross sections from silicon beams at 400, 600, and 1200 MeV/nucleon. Some energy dependence is observed in the fragment production cross sections, and as in other data sets the production of fragments with even charge numbers is enhanced relative to those with odd charge numbers. These data are compared to the NASA-LaRC model NUCFRG2. The charge-changing cross section data are compared to recent calculations using an improved model due to Tripathi, which accurately predicts the observed (slight) energy dependence. An additional set of data will be presented from an analysis of shielding material performance in the 1 GeV/nucleon iron beam at the AGS. A wide variety of candidate materials for spacecraft construction, as well as elemental targets, have been placed in this beam and their effects on transmitted dose and dose equivalent measured. The results support a prediction by J. Wilson et al. that hydrogen-loaded materials give the greatest dose reduction per unit mass.

Zeitlin, Cary J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bench Testing Data and Report for an Early Prototype Pitch Resonator WEC

This dataset encompasses data and documentation from bench tests conducted on an early prototype of a "pitch resonator" wave energy converter (WEC). The testing aimed to validate numerical models and reduce risks associated with the pitch resonator concept, which is designed to convert the pitching and rolling motions of a buoy into electrical power. The project's goal is to provide supplementary power, in the range of 10-100 watts, to the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative Pioneer Array. Two distinct testing phases are documented: one using a single degree of freedom (1DOF) test rig, and another employing a six degree of freedom (6DOF) Stewart platform, known as the Large Amplitude Motion Platform (LAMP). These tests assessed various factors, such as system performance in different motion scenarios, the torque exerted by wave forces, and the impact of mounting configurations. The dataset includes raw test data in MATLAB (.mat) format, detailed metadata, and a report describing the experimental procedures and preliminary findings.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stream discharge and water quality data for East Fork Poplar Creek beginning 2012

This data note describes 15-min discharge and in situ water quality data at two locations along East Fork Poplar Creek in east Tennessee, USA. Data records include temperature, gauge height, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and volumetric discharge. Water quality measurements include temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen (percent saturation and concentration), turbidity, and less extensive fDOM data at one site. The data records begin in 2012 at one site and 2015 at the second site; monitoring at both sites is ongoing (as of 2021). The goal of this data collection is to improve understanding of watershed functions, hydrologic dynamics, and material flux. The data will contribute to site conceptual and numerical models, exposure and risk evaluation, remediation selection and design, and performance monitoring. The data are publicly available and can be accessed via unique url or DOI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers

Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.

Flood Simulation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection

Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.

Basin-scale↗